kambo said:yeap, Good luck to us all...
AusTex64 said:<I don't expect another 2008-9 housing collapse because we don't have the flaky derivatives creating the unnatural upward price pressure.>
CDO's are still around, they just have a new name - tranches. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tranche
Did you like "The Big Short"?
Fannie and Freddie are still buying mortgages from banks and haven't been reformed (privatized).AusTex64 said:<I don't expect another 2008-9 housing collapse because we don't have the flaky derivatives creating the unnatural upward price pressure.>
That sounds like the old name... difference now is better price discovery. Back then all these bundled mortgages full of sub-prime liar loans were selling hand over fist as long as house prices kept climbing. When the music stopped the liquidity for them dried up.CDO's are still around, they just have a new name - tranches. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tranche
I didn't read the book or watch the movie, I saw it play out in real time and don't need a Hollywood version.Did you like "The Big Short"?
I think I already mentioned this but silicon valley is a special case with very high pay rates, and not enough real estate to meet demand. Renting is not a very good option either.kambo said:AusTex64 said:<I don't expect another 2008-9 housing collapse because we don't have the flaky derivatives creating the unnatural upward price pressure.>
CDO's are still around, they just have a new name - tranches. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tranche
Did you like "The Big Short"?
yea, i think i agree with you...
SF is going crazy with prices!
southern CA too... none of those houses worth that much... a lot of overbidding cash buyings going on...
that pushing the prices way up!
we were going to buy a house for 650K, it was a wracked house, over the weekend, it sold for 1.5M...
even if u built apartment building on that land, because of permits, there is no way u can get ur money back,
in this century!.. math is easy!
there is a forceful overbidding going on all over CA!
I have the book but haven't read it. I heard this Fresh Air interview with the author when it was broadcast about six years ago:kambo said:Did you like "The Big Short"?
Yes the calculus is new household formation vs housing stock. In the US there are more millennials living at home far longer than we did when young. Most of us escaped shortly after HS.ruffrecords said:In the UK, house prices are fueled as much as anything by the lack of new housing stock. The building industry suffered badly after 2008 and and the number of new builds now is still below what is was then.
Cheers
Ian
JohnRoberts said:Yes the calculus is new household formation vs housing stock. In the US there are more millennials living at home far longer than we did when young. Most of us escaped shortly after HS.
The housing bubble collapse almost a decade ago gutted the home builders (here) and they still haven't fully recovered to pre-crash build rates. JR
Single parent families have been around forever but most came about the old fashioned way (like when my father died and my mother raised us alone for years until she remarried).ruffrecords said:The other factor in the UK (and probably the US) is the huge increase in the number of single parent families.
Historically they would not live alone but with a larger nuclear family that offered other support features (like built in baby sitters).This increases demand for smaller houses and flats (apaetments) but often the demand is from people who cannot afford to buy.
Real estate has become a pure investment since the housing bubble collapsed making lots of properties cheap for those willing to wait. Quietly many distressed properties have been bought up by hedge funds and smart money. REITs (real estate investment trusts ) Have become popular ways for individuals to bet on real estate. Besides smart money there is also scared money buying real estate to secure assets overseas away from governments or currencies they don't trust. A lot of real estate in London is owned by foreigners. Lots of south american money ends up in Miami, and many Chinese have bought property in US and Canada (probably all around the world).This has led to significant growth in the buy to let market with 2 bed homes being snapped up by investors.
CHeers
Ian
True, a good thing to remember.sahib said:There is a saying "if you do not know who the sucker is around a poker table then it is you".
One questionable relationship is the real estate agent who nominally represents the buyer, but profits more from a higher purchase price. Snakes in the woodpile.This is exactly the case when you sit round a table with the developer, estate agent and the bank.
If by tenement you mean rental income property some housing projects do go bad but often thanks to government "help" filling them up with people who have no ownership interest in keeping the property up.I do not know the US market but here in Scotland my advice is always the same. Stay away from new build. Go for the tenement ( I know it has a different meaning in US). I do not know any tenement that lost in value but I know gazillions of new builts still in negative equity.
JohnRoberts said:buying a two family home and renting out half to help pay the mortgage is a good way to get started on the road to home ownership.
JR
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