is new housing bubble coming soon ?

shop deals on amazon
Advertise with us
Shop deals on ebay
GroupDIY Audio Forum

Help Support GroupDIY Audio Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
JohnRoberts said:
.....If by tenement you mean rental income property ....
Click to expand...

John,  here the tenement refers to the multiple occupancy  (flats) buildings which were built (in general) Victorian times, vast majority of which is in red sand stone.

One of the reasons that the tenement flats (apartments) do not lose value is because of the spaciousness due to tall windows and high ceilings. The lowest height you will see is 10'. We have 12' high ceilings.  Our building is over 100 years old and still going solid. New built buildings are just glorified card board boxes. After 4-5 years they start to get tired.

However, my comments on new built excludes the conversions. These are again solid, sand stone buildings originally built for commercial use.  Or the churches. When we got married our first flat was in a church conversion. It was a small one bedroom but 10' high ceilings and large windows. We bought it new in late  '80s and sold it after two years walking away with  £15K profit in our pockets. At that time there were new buildings by the Clyde side averaging with 20K in negative equity. 
 
As a "young man" getting ready to, (hopefully) purchase a house for the first time, I've found this thread very interesting!

Thank you for the repeated insight guys! :)
 
Goodizzy said:
As a "young man" getting ready to, (hopefully) purchase a house for the first time, I've found this thread very interesting!

Thank you for the repeated insight guys! :)
Click to expand...
The good news is that mortgages are historically very low interest rates.  A fixed rate mortgage is probably smart because interest rates shouldn't stay this low forever.  I remember crazy high and variable rate mortgages where interest rates and payments could increase during the loan duration.

Shorter term mortgages are better if you can handle the higher monthly payment, while short ballon loans can be dangerous if circumstances change.  Also make sure there is no pre-payment penalty, so you can pay it off as fast as you want (like after you win the lottery).

It's interesting to look at mortgage math. In the early years you are paying almost pure interest with very little of your payment reducing the principal. The faster you can knock down the principal the less interest total that you owe.

Other general advice is to not buy the most expensive house in a given neighborhood. School districts matter to families with children.

Home ownership means you are responsible for repairs, so get a good house inspection before you buy. 

Good Luck...  it is a fairly tight (sellers advantage) market for first time buyers these days, but different regions can vary +/-.

JR
 
An interesting development regarding mortgages (kind of) is the Deutsche Bank $14B Dept of justice mortgage fraud penalty.  The timing of this is interesting, since the subject fraud is related to the housing bubble almost a decade ago.  Coincidentally perhaps, and I am not a fan of conspiracy theories but just saying, Apple was recently charged with $14B by the EU for "avoided" taxes.

There are several realities surrounding the Deutsche Bank fine...  First and importantly they do not have $14B on their balance sheet that they could pay. Such fines are generally reserved against on the balance sheet and paid as a lump sum. Deutsche bank only reserved some $5B and rumors are circulating that the DOJ will settle around that amount. A full $14B payment would bankrupt the bank requiring a bailout by Merkel that would be politically inconvenient after denying Italy bank bailouts. Obama would not want to embarrass Merkel and injure German finance on his way out of office. EU banks are far from well capitalized.

Anyone want to bet that this is telegraphing an Apple tax settlement closer to $5B than $14B?

JR

PS: Hanjin  a huge south korean container shipper is in bankruptcy after  a period of flat to reduced international trade and collapsed container shipping rates. The modern political climate opposed to free trade is already showing symptoms in world commerce. Again good luck to us all...
 
kambo said:
some very interesting news lately !
Click to expand...
There is lots of interesting news every day... If a typical newspaper has 50 pages with a couple articles on each page reading that paper cover to cover for a few decades covers a lot of ground.

It is remarkable how little news gets on  TV even the 24 hours news channels that just cover the same small handful of stories over and over.

One tidbit from today's paper that caught my eye was an article about police officers buying liability insurance to cover their legal exposure to lawsuits in this new anti-police environment. Not unlike the way malpractice insurance became standard for doctors, future law officers may need to lawyer up in advance.  Unlike doctors I doubt they can pass along the costs to end users very easily.

Interesting times, but it's been interesting for several decades.. 

JR
 
yeap, 1+
totally...
i walk to liquor store pretty much everyday for fun, and get newspaper for my wife, and all the goodies for my self :)

even front page news on paper are way richer then CNN's main page!

 
JohnRoberts said:
An interesting development regarding mortgages (kind of) is the Deutsche Bank $14B Dept of justice mortgage fraud penalty.  The timing of this is interesting, since the subject fraud is related to the housing bubble almost a decade ago.  Coincidentally perhaps, and I am not a fan of conspiracy theories but just saying, Apple was recently charged with $14B by the EU for "avoided" taxes.

There are several realities surrounding the Deutsche Bank fine...  First and importantly they do not have $14B on their balance sheet that they could pay. Such fines are generally reserved against on the balance sheet and paid as a lump sum. Deutsche bank only reserved some $5B and rumors are circulating that the DOJ will settle around that amount. A full $14B payment would bankrupt the bank requiring a bailout by Merkel that would be politically inconvenient after denying Italy bank bailouts. Obama would not want to embarrass Merkel and injure German finance on his way out of office. EU banks are far from well capitalized.

Anyone want to bet that this is telegraphing an Apple tax settlement closer to $5B than $14B?

JR

PS: Hanjin  a huge south korean container shipper is in bankruptcy after  a period of flat to reduced international trade and collapsed container shipping rates. The modern political climate opposed to free trade is already showing symptoms in world commerce. Again good luck to us all...
Click to expand...
My conspiracy theory that the huge Deutsch penalty was just a negotiation about Apple's tax penalty was incorrect.... It appears the reality may be much worse.  https://www.ft.com/content/d41480aa-86a0-11e6-bcfc-debbef66f80e According to the FT Deutsch Bank was only one of three banks targeted along with Barclays and credit Suisse , for a politically motivated attack against big banks just before the US election.

Ironic perhaps that the vehicle used for this, Dodd-Frank,  was set up to protect banking and nearly led to a new banking crisis. (Deutsch doesn't have the $14B requested).

My bad, I guess I didn't expect the administration to threaten international banking for lowly political advantage (look voters we're hard on big banks). 

JR

PS: Apparently the FT article cites anonymous sources so may be suspect.  I don't read the FT regularly so don't know.
 

Similar threads

Rusan
North American Eclipse
2
Replies
24
Views
646
JohnRoberts
JohnRoberts
DaveP
The Current Impasse
2
Replies
34
Views
951
Disco Volante
D
jBam
Typical capacitor values for audio
3 4 5
Replies
91
Views
5K
jBam
jBam
K
Elam 251E PSU question
Replies
9
Views
682
tomas.borgstrom
tomas.borgstrom
P
Passive low pass circuit on output transformer secondaries
2
Replies
32
Views
2K
Potato Cakes
P

Latest posts

Back
Top