Who is Laff(er)ing now?

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I have to check but I think that guy was on Real Time with Bill Maher last week Laffing about the whole thing saying something like, "that's why I only bet a penny."

Yikes.
 
http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=YBVB1Uc0nko&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ez5robAWmu4&NR=1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Q9WzCrLuC4&feature=related


This man WAS our only hope for "change"..
 
That report (bcarso's link) was in August, 2006.

Perhaps we should explore the temporal relationship along a time-line beginning with the report, the election of a Democrat majority two months later in both the House and Senate in November 2006, the almost simultaneous rise in oil prices and the coerced creative 100% financing in housing.

I spoke with a real estate agent last week who will be listing the house across the street. He placed blame squarely on 100% no documentation loans and the built-in incentive for people who were historically renters to walk away from properties absent any real ownership interest.

FWIW his business is booming now that the bubble has burst. He's got houses "priced right" selling in days. The house next to the one he's listing sold in less than three weeks. I saw another home in the neighborhood also sell in about three weeks.

Laffler might have been partially right had multiple dynamics not changed. The housing bubble was bound to burst and it was created in part as a result of the CRA, Congress, mortgage securitization and anti-redlining litigation. There's clearly plenty of blame to go around there including homeowners who can (some) but do not chose to pay on mortgages written for more than market value.
 
[quote author="ClaudeTucker"]That report (bcarso's link) was in August, 2006.[/quote]
Claude... -you're a genius!.

[quote author="ClaudeTucker"]Perhaps we should explore the temporal relationship along a time-line beginning with the report, the election of a Democrat majority two months later in both the House and Senate in November 2006...[/quote]
...You can explore all you like, but your assertion foolishly overlooks the fact that Schiff was pointing out that this was going to happen BEFORE the "evil" democratic majority was elected.

I listed a house for sale back in 2006 myself, so I do have a particularly reliable handle on the time-line. -Oh, and if you think that Democrats can turn around an economy THAT fast, you're really misguided.

[quote author="ClaudeTucker"]I spoke with a real estate agent last week who will be listing the house across the street.[/quote]
...No guarantee of being an expert. -I'm just pointing that out...

[quote author="ClaudeTucker"]FWIW his business is booming now that the bubble has burst. He's got houses "priced right" selling in days. The house next to the one he's listing sold in less than three weeks. I saw another home in the neighborhood also sell in about three weeks.[/quote]
Well... -there you go then. -Hoorah for this fabulous economy we're living in!

...Which country are you living in, Claude? -Here in the US, most economists seem to agree that the economy shows worrying signs of being headed into the crapper. -I mention this so that you have a point of reference, by the way.

Trick or treat.

Keith
 
I actually watch those programs and Laffer is a regular. They constantly enlist people to argue bull and bear cases for things. Laffer may have been enlisted to argue the bull case that day. While he clearly was drinking the koolaid that day. I'm willing to bet that was the Larry Kudlow program on CNBC, and Michelle was guest hosting that day. She is a fair economist herself, but that show is eternally optimistic even in todays down market.

FWIW Laffer is still winning that penny since we technically won't be in a recession until Jan '09, after we log two down quarters in a row. If he made that bet with no time limit he deserves to lose his penny. It's worth noting that the stimulus checks hit in the second quarter and I suspect that had some positive effect on GDP.

For a look at Laffer's more recent thinking on the economy here's his recent book.

http://search.barnesandnoble.com/End-of-Prosperity/Arthur-B-Laffer/e/9781416592389/

But even he didn't see the credit meltdown from derivatives coming. Like everybody else, including the ratings agencies.

There's old joke about economists ask any two, and you'll get three opinions. On any day they have economists on the business channel arguing both directions for the future,

I wish Ron Paul who is in congress and several others who tried to rein in Fannie and freddie were more successful.. Instead I see Barney Frank on TV saying he's going to fix all this... He is up to his neck in this, and IMO a major contributor.

Greenspan is no fool, but maybe believed his own press a little too much... it's clear in hindsight he kept interest rates low too long, but at the time he looked like a genius and it isn't fair to pin this whole thing on him. I thought it took unusual integrity for him to admit to congress he erred. I'm still waiting for a similar confession from his congressional questioners.

JR
 
For Claude et all.. despite the macro effects on real estate it is still a local business with some regions wildly better or worse than others. Housing sales are up in general these days mostly due to foreclosures and the beginning of capitulation by homeowners about what their homes are really worth. If a home is on the market for a really long time, it is usually because the seller has unrealistic expectations of what it's worth.

Yes the economy is in deep doo-doo... Experts are predicting a recession deeper than the last two, and I believe without the extraordinary efforts by governments around the world we might have suffered another '30s style depression. The goods news is economists also study history, so the good ones don't repeat old mistakes, while there are always new ones to make.

JR
 
[quote author="JohnRoberts"]
But even he didn't see the credit meltdown from derivatives coming. Like everybody else, including the ratings agencies.
[/quote]

Dont know about everybody else. I know of some guys who more or less
predicted this mess as far as four years ago.

[quote author="JohnRoberts"]
I wish Ron Paul .......
[/quote]

If Ron by some kind of miracle took White House in 2004, he could have
done something about it, maybe.

[quote author="JohnRoberts"]
Greenspan is no fool, but maybe believed his own press a little too much... it's clear in hindsight he kept interest rates low too long, but at the time he looked like a genius and it isn't fair to pin this whole thing on him. I thought it took unusual integrity for him to admit to congress he erred. I'm still waiting for a similar confession from his congressional questioners.
[/quote]

I would say that Mr.G took Holy Gospel of St. Milton Friedman verbatim.
Just as El Presidente B. (along with numerous others) took Holy Gospel
of St. Samuel P. Huntington verbatim.
I agree Mr.G is not only one to blame, I see this as complete failure
of upper management of all WS "monoliths". But I cannot see any
bravery in Greenspans' actions. His errors are obvious anyway, and it's
not like his public sorry-I-screwed-up will cost him consultant gig at
Paulson & Co. Or cost him anything at all.

cheers
urosh
 
[quote author="JohnRoberts"] The goods news is economists also study history, so the good ones don't repeat old mistakes, while there are always new ones to make.
[/quote]

Yep. Jim Rogers thinks we can try something like this
for a change

cheerz
urosh
 
I am actually invested in a Jimmy Rogers commodity fund. While it's been falling the last couple months, it's still up from when I first got in, and should do well long term. His latest thinking is a similar investment vehicle based on world food commodities. These will be fueled by things like food diverted for ethanol, and the developing world discovering a taste for beef.

He is a little crusty around the edges but has already made his bundle, so doesn't suffer fools. He is a very smart fellow. I think he's living in China or Singapore, so his kid will grow up speaking Chinese. Another long term bet of his.

JR
 
ssltech: What does your bitterness, anger, rage and negativity do to make things any better for you? Why did you come to the US? If it's such a bad place why don't you just leave? Could it be because it provides you a job? A good job? If the UK is such a utopia why aren't you back there? I amazed by the number of people who are so pissed off when good news appears in "bad" times.

If you think things are going to be any better - really better not just "reported" as better - after the election of Obama (or for that matter McCain) you're going to be very dissapointed. So deal with it, "buck up" and create your own future. Stop whining and do something.

America has fewer impediments to success than most any place in the world. The number of immagrants who come here for opportunity speak to that. Perhaps you were one of them. The thing I want to avoid in any candidate is someone that places limits on my ability to work and enjoy the fruits of my labor.

The dependence that many of you place on a President to solve your woes tells me that you're weak. It's an admission that you think you cannot do much of anything by yourself. I pity those sheeple.

If Obama is elected I will do well (or attempt to) despite him. If McCain is elected I will do well not because of him, but because he will get out of the way and I can continue to realize the potential that I - and all of us - have inside.

So look in the mirror to find what limits you.

ssltech and others: I wear your vitriol and rage as a badge of honor. It shows the rest of us how nasty you are when given the opportunity.

Now put on a happy face. :grin:
 
Claude, you're wrong with all of your guesses, so please don't try to insult me any more.

I moved to the US becuase I married an American citizen. -AFTER I was permitted to work, I THEN got a job here.

So, no. -you're wrong.

-Again.

Keith
 
No need to get ad hominum or personal,,, we share more common interest, than differences.

We should be able to calmly discuss facts, and politely disagree about which candidate may do whatever in the future, NOT A FACT..

JR
 
Perhaps not...

[quote author="ClaudeTucker"]ssltech and others: I wear your vitriol and rage as a badge of honor. [/quote]

I find this indefensible, and disgusting.

If I'm reading this correctly, it says "I'm proud ('honored') that I'm pissing people off".

Finding "honor" in that revulses me.

Keith
 
[quote author="JohnRoberts"]He is a little crusty around the edges but has already made his bundle, so doesn't suffer fools. He is a very smart fellow. I think he's living in China or Singapore, so his kid will grow up speaking Chinese. Another long term bet of his.
[/quote]
It's Singapore. And he also claims investment in water supply and processing in East Asia will be more than smart investment for the future.
I would blindly invest in anything Rogers, but my savings are hovering
around $10000. Not nearly enough for even modest family portfolio.

cheerz
ypow
 
[quote author="ClaudeTucker"]ssltech: What does your bitterness, anger, rage and negativity do to make things any better for you? [/quote]

I actually think you would be hard pressed to find a more thoughtful, well spoken, friendly and universally respected member then Keith.

Certainly not any of those things you mention.

Mike
 
Not to belittle your contributions, Claude... -I respect your input on Op-Amps especially, and I've gratefully enjoyed and appreciated your input.

But I'm taking a specific view of your political contributions, and I've more than once asked you to back up your posts with experience, with explanation or with any sort of personal apsect which shares INSIGHT with others, not just re-posting far-from-balanced blog-trove links in a 'hit-and-run' manner.

Posting pot-shots and abandoning them isn't debate. It's not discussion. It's dogma.

I take serious exception to you taking any 'ire' which you may generate on my part as a 'badge of honor'. -I think you need to consider your contributions to this forum.

Right now I'm -once again- considering just pulling all the rancorous threads to the basement, but my conscience tells me not to. -According to Shakespeare however, conscience "doth make cowards of us all", and I've received more than one private message asking for the same thing. -Others have posted in another thread aimed at removing the conflict from our fora.

-Absent a compelling argument otherwise in the next hour or so, I'll take a unilateral decision and dump these threads.

I would like to make clear that it's not because of the views that I would do so... it's because of the lack of proper discussion or informed debate.

Keith
 
Making an uneducated observation, would it be possible that this coming world economic crisis was done intentionally by some of the money experts that are apart of the US treasury/Wall Street gang??

One thing for sure is that they all knew that this was coming during 04' when Greenspan and Bush started promoting the ARMs (remember that? before all those irresponsible buyers took out loans that they couldnt afford?? It was a great idea at the time right??? :wink: )

So, with the prior knowledge of an upcoming financial crash and that the dollar was going to take a bit hit that they somehow

( and this is where its all gibberish to me )

got the world banks tied into this mess knowing that if they can crash all the other world markets in the long haul the dollar will emerge as being the currency least affected by the mess that the folks at the FED and the US Treasury created?

For the money experts out there, is my observation way off to what is concluded to of happen??

I have a difficult time to grasp the concept that the people "behind" the wheel were THAT stupid, come'on now they are more clever than we give them credit for.
 

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