JohnRoberts

Re: The great international crisis swindle...
« Reply #20 on: July 31, 2009, 04:00:11 PM »
IIRC the german central bank has a slightly different mission than US central bankers. Germany only targets managing inflation, no doubt a hangover from the Wiemar republic's hyper inflation (Euro central bankers also only target price stability, aka inflation). US central bankers are charged with balancing natural unemployment rates against inflation, and now there is talk about adding systemic risk to their plate.

There is much criticism of the fed doing too much and/or too little while the rouge derivatives looked like a virtual creation of money (easy credit) outside of the central bankers influence.

Nobody is an Island indeed (I thought John Donne was a brit?). Germany has enjoyed economic success by being a major exporter of high technology goods to all around the world. When the Berlin wall came down and they absorbed the former East Germany, that was a huge social/economic burden on the West. It is interesting to hear about Germany from the perspective of a German, since outsiders tend to think of the large German companies that have influence in other countries. Hard to imagine that capitalism is a bad word. Even communist China is embracing capitalism. Globalism usually means raising the standard of living for the poorest of us at some modest social cost to workers in wealthy countries. While unpleasant when we are those wealthy country workers, not really a bad thing to drag anybody up out of poverty.

JR
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.


lolo-m

Re: The great international crisis swindle...
« Reply #21 on: July 31, 2009, 04:47:42 PM »

Huh?  A stock is ownership in a company.  Nothing more, nothing less.  A market is where stocks are bought and sold.


Yes, that's the real problem !
Please, listen or read the words used when poeple talk about Wall Street or Paris or London or Tokyo Market places. I'm quite sure it's like here in France. You can hear or read words like confidence, panic, crasy, doubtfullness... What are those words ? Just human feelings. Do you still beleive traders are rational ? I don't because they are human and a human isn't rational when it's about feelings...

I remember a book I read writen by a french economy teacher. All the book is a huge demontration of the fact Economy isn't a Science because there's a really impossible to predict point : human reaction. All the book is talking about the history of economy and how economist made poeple think there were scientists...Unfortunatelly, I'm quite sure it won't be translated in english as it wasn't a best seller in France at all !!! But I'm quite sure you can find numerous examples of an economist who said white explaining you how it finally became black...

Hard to be a punk... But sometimes you have to...

lolo-m

Re: The great international crisis swindle...
« Reply #22 on: July 31, 2009, 05:20:00 PM »
Hard to imagine that capitalism is a bad word. Even communist China is embracing capitalism. Globalism usually means raising the standard of living for the poorest of us at some modest social cost to workers in wealthy countries. While unpleasant when we are those wealthy country workers, not really a bad thing to drag anybody up out of poverty.

JR

Man, who said capitalism is a bad thing ? I'm a capitalist. I just want to have a more regulated capitalism and most of all a more fair capitalism... To prevent future bubbles ( what at this moment prevent us from another bubble ?) and wars...
Irak war is an example of pure cupidity :
Irak has got a lot of petrol. France has a long history of cooperation with Saddam Hussein to fight Iran ( providing him weapons... ). So France has got a lot of economic advantages on Irakian petrol.
Irak has got a lot of petrol. USA has got some too but thinking at the future wants to burn the others first ( I understand). So USA decide to get Irakian petrol and find a completely impossible story of mass destruction weapons. Axs nobody knows, americans trust their country and USA make a war in Irak.
At the same moment, France who was friend with Irak, Knows that if USA wins, they won't have irakian petrol, and if USA loose the war they will have it only if the don't do the war. So french government lies to french people saying it's not a fair war and all these long stories about the fact poelpe must deceide themselves wahat they want to do in their own country... And as poelpe don't know here in France too, they trust the government...
Saddam Hussein in both countries wasn't a problem, petrol cupidity was... France didn't do the war as USA did it for the same reasons, getting some petrol. And a lot of poeple died...


Globalism usually means raising the standard of living for the poorest of us at some modest social cost to workers in wealthy countries. While unpleasant when we are those wealthy country workers, not really a bad thing to drag anybody up out of poverty.

Are you sure this is what's happening ? I can't see that here in Europe (nor in China):
The poorer european countries have still not enough money to eat correctly, and the richest have more and more difficulties to fill their plates... Social advantages of the wealthy are getting down every day while poorest are not rising significantly.
The way you see globalism is pleasing me and looks like what's happening here on DIY but it's not what happens in the world.
Hard to be a punk... But sometimes you have to...

JohnRoberts

Re: The great international crisis swindle...
« Reply #23 on: July 31, 2009, 05:35:44 PM »
I absolutely agree that economics is not a science like physics. it is more a study of human nature in response to incentives. While they can make broad observations about large groups, individuals will always be individuals, while all atoms follow their physics.

The stock market is marketplace of what people think companies are worth at some point in the future, usually several month out. Since the future can't be known, accurate future value can't be known. Statistical analysis by studying past price and volume activity can predict one likely future based on the wisdom of numbers. While history has shown that large numbers can be fooled or just wrong. Fundamental analysis does a more of a bookkeeping like analysis of what a company should be worth in the near future based on the recent past trends. History has shown that macro economic displacements can change individual company trends, and in extreme cases, book keepers can lie.

So there is no perfect way to predict the future, so day to day stock market prices are educated guesses based on "sentiment" . This sentiment can turn on a dime due to headline risk (unflattering news). Money is made in the stock market from ignoring the short term noise in markets and choosing quality companies in favorable circumstances.

It is obviously a little more complicated than this but I basically agree. In the short term the stock market it is worse than a woman to predict what it (she) will do at any moment... In the long term it is like a kid.. they usually grow bigger and stronger, as time goes on, but sometimes they die.

JR

 
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

JohnRoberts

Re: The great international crisis swindle...
« Reply #24 on: July 31, 2009, 06:30:09 PM »

Man, who said capitalism is a bad thing ? I'm a capitalist. I just want to have a more regulated capitalism and most of all a more fair capitalism... To prevent future bubbles ( what at this moment prevent us from another bubble ?) and wars...
from a recent post... "a negative smack of unlimited hardcore-capitalism...."

Regarding preventing bubbles, and more specifically preventing business cycles, I have very mixed feelings about if this is even possible, and worthwhile.

Economic contractions are an opportunity to clear out dead wood and weak companies (creative destruction).  I am also suspicious that all the Ponzi scheme and similar frauds we are uncovering now, were only revealed by the economic contraction. The joke goes, when the tide goes out you can see who isn't wearing swim trunks. If there is no contraction, frauds are harder to find. 

Quote




Irak war is an example of pure cupidity :
Irak has got a lot of petrol. France has a long history of cooperation with Saddam Hussein to fight Iran ( providing him weapons... ). So France has got a lot of economic advantages on Irakian petrol.
Irak has got a lot of petrol. USA has got some too but thinking at the future wants to burn the others first ( I understand). So USA decide to get Irakian petrol and find a completely impossible story of mass destruction weapons. Axs nobody knows, americans trust their country and USA make a war in Irak.
At the same moment, France who was friend with Irak, Knows that if USA wins, they won't have irakian petrol, and if USA loose the war they will have it only if the don't do the war. So french government lies to french people saying it's not a fair war and all these long stories about the fact poelpe must deceide themselves wahat they want to do in their own country... And as poelpe don't know here in France too, they trust the government...
Saddam Hussein in both countries wasn't a problem, petrol cupidity was... France didn't do the war as USA did it for the same reasons, getting some petrol. And a lot of poeple died...
This has been argued at length and if all we wanted was oil we should invade Alaska, or San Diego.

Right now only the northern Kurdish region has active oil contracts happening, and they are not in sync with the Baghdad government who is having trouble closing similar deals because they are asking for a higher return than international oil companies are willing to pay.

I find it mildly amusing that some US citizens who thought this was a simple oil grab are wondering where the free oil is.

I guess I am one of the fools who believes in the value of self determination, while i am not very comfortable in arbitrary regime change. Saddam deserved to be hanged, and he was convicted by an Iraqi court.
-----
I suspect the recent popular protests following the Iranian election sham was influenced by the fledgling democracy next door. For any who are not still paying attention to world events, there were recent riots in Iran at a graveyard ceremony to honor innocents killed in the post election rioting. The Iranian mullahs understand the power of funerals to stir up revolution, as it was the mounting reaction from funeral rioting that spread and powered the first Iranian revolution. This time they outlawed funeral celebrations, to prevent this popular movement from building momentum but the movement is not going away.

Coincidentally the Iraqi military has just attacked an anti-Iranian dissident camp in Iraq the that the US military had left alone. This will surely win some points for the new Iraqi government with Iran. 

I would cite this as evidence of Iraqi independence from US influence, but with our new administrations soft posture towards Tehran it's hard to tell. 

Quote

Globalism usually means raising the standard of living for the poorest of us at some modest social cost to workers in wealthy countries. While unpleasant when we are those wealthy country workers, not really a bad thing to drag anybody up out of poverty.

Are you sure this is what's happening ? I can't see that here in Europe (nor in China):
The poorer european countries have still not enough money to eat correctly, and the richest have more and more difficulties to fill their plates... Social advantages of the wealthy are getting down every day while poorest are not rising significantly.
The way you see globalism is pleasing me and looks like what's happening here on DIY but it's not what happens in the world.

I was in China maybe 10 years ago, and even then there was a huge influx of poor workers from the north into the industrialized (Guangdong?) region to work for wages we consider a pittance, but new found wealth to them. I was told stories about young women, traveling south, saving most of their wages, and then returning home in a few years with enough savings to buy a plot of land. Once they own some land in the poor region they are (reportedly) set for life. 

I'm sure they have changed a lot since I was there. As I recall it was bicycles every where when I was there. Now they have an emerging middle class buying cars. I suspect they are less enthusiastic about returning to the primitive regions and new cities are growing out of nowhere, for all these new city dwellers.

There are still very poor regions in China, and some minority populations are not sharing in the new, modest by our standards, wealth. But the country has grown private wealth impressively since getting Hong Kong back from GB and tasting the sweet fruits of capitalism.

JR
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

sodderboy

Re: The great international crisis swindle...
« Reply #25 on: July 31, 2009, 08:08:31 PM »
Bro, if you have ever looked at a trading floor, it is all emotion.  The biggest loon in the brightest sport jacket gets the worm.  Any trading frenzy is just that.  Sometimes it is sharks eating other sharks, and eating themselves because there is so much blood in the water.  Other times it is like an aviary where the weak bird dies from a thousand pecks.
But the suits on the ends of the phones get theirs.  That is how you have to think.

If you want to invest for the future, turn off your financial channel.  Use the financial section of your city paper to start a fire or train a puppy.  Learn what the suits do.  My favorite among many suits is Benjamin Graham.  Buffet for me is some kind of a converted "I've got mine, now the government will give you yours" liberal.

There is no room for emotion in successful investing.
Mike
 

JohnRoberts

Re: The great international crisis swindle...
« Reply #26 on: July 31, 2009, 10:29:06 PM »
Graham is the original value investor. Buffet is no fool and using his size to get better terms. I got tired of chasing Buffet trades with worse terms so just bought some BRKH.

My best investment is my own business...

JR
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

lolo-m

Re: The great international crisis swindle...
« Reply #27 on: August 13, 2009, 03:51:43 AM »
Quote
Irak war is an example of pure cupidity : .....
This has been argued at length and if all we wanted was oil we should invade Alaska, or San Diego.
Irak and Iran are world 2nd and 3rd petrol stocks... Easy to pump petrol ( when the factories are not destroyed by a war...), so cheap petrol...
Look what happen there, think about those riots, wars and really try to think who will win something. You'll know who tries to make things change there...

Alaska and San diego got a lot of petrol too, but don't you think USA's petrol companies are already there ? Why would you do a war to get something you already have ?
Hard to be a punk... But sometimes you have to...

JohnRoberts

Re: The great international crisis swindle...
« Reply #28 on: August 13, 2009, 10:48:50 AM »
Quote
Irak war is an example of pure cupidity : .....
This has been argued at length and if all we wanted was oil we should invade Alaska, or San Diego.
Irak and Iran are world 2nd and 3rd petrol stocks... Easy to pump petrol ( when the factories are not destroyed by a war...), so cheap petrol...
Look what happen there, think about those riots, wars and really try to think who will win something. You'll know who tries to make things change there...

Alaska and San diego got a lot of petrol too, but don't you think USA's petrol companies are already there ? Why would you do a war to get something you already have ?

I'm sorry if my humor doesn't translate... San Diego had some offshore oil rigs fouling their beaches and outlawed drilling offshore. Alaska has an oil rich,  pristine nature reserve area (ANWAR) restricted. Modern technology could safely extract oil from both of those areas but it is opposed by politicians.

A standard myth about Iraq is that they were invaded to take their oil. The ignorant people who believed that are now wondering where the free oil is.  The last I heard the northern Kurdish region has negotiated deals with western oil companies to extract and sell their oil. The rest of Iraq negotiated by Baghdad failed to reach agreements the last I heard, there are differences over revenue expectations. There is tension between the Kurds and the central government over their sales (that they claim is constitutional) , but the north was stabilized well before the rest of Iraq and didn't want to wait. Iraq is "selling" their oil, but now the money is going to the people, not Saddam.

Iran has been courted by Russia mainly for the huge natural gas reserves around the caspian sea basin. The soviets are not selling Iran weapons systems and nuclear reactors because they are nice guys.

Of course oil is a factor all around the world.. China is involved in the Sudan region and they are a little too comfortable looking the other way and ignoring abuses. But there are multiple oil producing regions where the people in the region don't benefit. Iraq is now off that list. While they still have work to do as bad elements try to stir up sunni-shia fighting. The Baghdad government is now taking down the concrete barriers that the US erected to help keep neighborhoods stable. Lets keep our fingers crossed that security continues to improve. Their neighbors are not enthusiastic about the example a stable democracy next door sets for their people.   

JR

Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

lolo-m

Re: The great international crisis swindle...
« Reply #29 on: August 13, 2009, 12:03:45 PM »

Iran has been courted by Russia mainly for the huge natural gas reserves around the caspian sea basin. The soviets are not selling Iran weapons systems and nuclear reactors because they are nice guys.

It's always a lot of fun to hear an american saying that Soviets are cool !!!

Quote
Of course oil is a factor all around the world.. China is involved in the Sudan region and they are a little too comfortable looking the other way and ignoring abuses. But there are multiple oil producing regions where the people in the region don't benefit. Iraq is now off that list. While they still have work to do as bad elements try to stir up sunni-shia fighting. The Baghdad government is now taking down the concrete barriers that the US erected to help keep neighborhoods stable. Lets keep our fingers crossed that security continues to improve. Their neighbors are not enthusiastic about the example a stable democracy next door sets for their people.   

What neighbours are you talking about ? Iran had a democratic election. No international observer has seen any problem in that election, but the result isn't what Europe and USA expected... Poeple all over the world doesn't necesarily think like us. I'm happy it is this way.
Maybe I'm ignorant, but I'm closer to Irak than you are, and certainly know many more muslim than you are... I've been in a muslim country and see another way to live and to think. I can't say I would like to live in that country but what I seen is a different way to live and I can't say it was a bad way.
France had a lot of problem of terrorism with Iran in the past because of their dark action with Irak during the Irak/Iran war... Terrorism stopped when we stopped acting like yoboes with muslim country, trying to learn them the way to think and act (and pumping their petrol of course).
If petrol wasn't the real reason, why did your government (aswell as UK's and many more) lied about those mass destruction weapons ??? Why your country (proud to present itself as the freedom country) didn't said there were making a war to an asphisxied country (due to a blocus after 1rst Irak war) to free it ??? Man, you should really close down CNN and start to think by yourself...

PS: I'm not anti american at all, I'm not  proud to be french (nor european), I'm not muslim. I'm just tired to see that only money is rulling the world, tired to see wars for cupidity, and no war for the same reason... How many wars should be done all over the world to free people and why aren't they done ? Nothing to gain in those countries... or economic reasons (trade, deals...), nothing more.
Hard to be a punk... But sometimes you have to...


JohnRoberts

Re: The great international crisis swindle...
« Reply #30 on: August 13, 2009, 12:51:52 PM »

Of course oil is a factor all around the world.. China is involved in the Sudan region and they are a little too comfortable looking the other way and ignoring abuses. But there are multiple oil producing regions where the people in the region don't benefit. Iraq is now off that list. While they still have work to do as bad elements try to stir up sunni-shia fighting. The Baghdad government is now taking down the concrete barriers that the US erected to help keep neighborhoods stable. Lets keep our fingers crossed that security continues to improve. Their neighbors are not enthusiastic about the example a stable democracy next door sets for their people.   

What neighbours are you talking about ? Iran had a democratic election. No international observer has seen any problem in that election, but the result isn't what Europe and USA expected... Poeple all over the world doesn't necesarily think like us. I'm happy it is this way.
Maybe I'm ignorant, but I'm closer to Irak than you are, and certainly know many more muslim than you are... I've been in a muslim country and see another way to live and to think. I can't say I would like to live in that country but what I seen is a different way to live and I can't say it was a bad way.
Demonstrations and show trials over rioters, are still going on in Iran related to that "democratic" election. Some prison officials may be charged over deaths that occurred in jails. Sarkozy (and other western leaders) did not congratulate Achiminijad when he was recently seated in office, as a form of protest.

Quote
France had a lot of problem of terrorism with Iran in the past because of their dark action with Irak during the Irak/Iran war... Terrorism stopped when we stopped acting like yoboes with muslim country, trying to learn them the way to think and act (and pumping their petrol of course).
This is another questionable argument, that if we just leave them alone they will peacefully coexist with the west. The radical element of Islam needs to be stopped from within the muslim community, we can't do it. The best we can do is improve security so populations that want peace can regain the upper hand.  Appeasement only works in the short term.
Quote
If petrol wasn't the real reason, why did your government (aswell as UK's and many more) lied about those mass destruction weapons ??? Why your country (proud to present itself as the freedom country) didn't said there were making a war to an asphisxied country (due to a blocus after 1rst Irak war) to free it ??? Man, you should really close down CNN and start to think by yourself...
The WMD was just one of several justifications for unseating Saddam. I am not a rabid proponent of regime change but Saddam deserved what he got from an Iraqi court.

Yes oil was a factor DUH... but not the only factor, nor was WMD.
 
Quote
PS: I'm not anti american at all, I'm not  proud to be french (nor european), I'm not muslim. I'm just tired to see that only money is rulling the world, tired to see wars for cupidity, and no war for the same reason... How many wars should be done all over the world to free people and why aren't they done ? Nothing to gain in those countries... or economic reasons (trade, deals...), nothing more.

Indeed there are conflicting economic reasons preventing removal of other outlaw regimes. Darfur is heart breaking to watch but China is buying their oil and Ok with the status quo. China is not willing to shut down Kim Jung Il, because it is afraid of massive immigration of poverty stricken North Koreans into China.

I don't follow french politics but from a distance it appears Sarkozy has decided not to appease the extremist factions. IIRC weren't there just some riots in Paris? Instead of cash for clunkers, we'll just burn cars parked on the street. Economists suggest this instability and anger is due to very low employment of young people. IMO a side effect of firing restrictions and other socialistic employment rules. If you can't fire, you are reluctant to hire.

Of course I could be wrong...

JR
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

lolo-m

Re: The great international crisis swindle...
« Reply #31 on: August 13, 2009, 01:45:22 PM »
Sarkozy (and other western leaders) did not congratulate Achiminijad when he was recently seated in office, as a form of protest.

I don't congratulate Iran regim, but the people there choosed it... unfortunately...

Quote
I am not a rabid proponent of regime change but Saddam deserved what he got from an Iraqi court.

Yes oil was a factor DUH... but not the only factor, nor was WMD.

Saddam deserved what he got of course... My purpose wasn't about Irak regim, just about the way some countries are making some wars for any reasons only to the countries where there's something to take. If war was to free people I wouldn't blame them, but this is not the reason, just a justification for the masses.

Quote

I don't follow french politics but from a distance it appears Sarkozy has decided not to appease the extremist factions. IIRC weren't there just some riots in Paris? Instead of cash for clunkers, we'll just burn cars parked on the street. Economists suggest this instability and anger is due to very low employment of young people. IMO a side effect of firing restrictions and other socialistic employment rules. If you can't fire, you are reluctant to hire.


Sarkozy is definitely the worst president we had... but he is a genius in political warfare and he managed to destroy all the political opposition parties. So I bet he will be reelected just because there's nobody else....
Sarkozy is the worst president we had. He is maybe the only one to give money to banks and to the super-societies without any counterparts. Evern more liberal country as UK, Germany or USA did...
Sarkozy is the most disliked president France had. He is an asshole:
As Security minister he was the only one to make all the poor districts of France burn because he insulted the people who are living there.
Sarkozy said this about your actual predisent (my translation is nearly perfect): "Obama is my buddy" ("Obama, c'est mon pote" dans le texte). Do you think it's a way to talk about any president ? I don't.

Unfortunatelly, we've got the worst president we ever had.

Your way to describe socialistic employement rules is a way to describe it, that's the negative way, but there's many other way to see this which are not that bad. You can always fire an employee, but maybe it will be at a cost... Not impossible at all and on the end maybe more easy to live for the two parts...
« Last Edit: August 15, 2009, 05:41:25 AM by lolo-m »
Hard to be a punk... But sometimes you have to...

JohnRoberts

Re: The great international crisis swindle...new bubble
« Reply #32 on: August 13, 2009, 03:29:20 PM »
Hah Talking about bubbles...

A recent trend is micro-lending, when small loans are made to poor people. This proved highly successful and profitable, so of course as is the case with capitalism, a bubble is occurring with these micro loans, where there is too much credit available, while too many lenders chase this easy profit. A classic crowded trade bubble.

I read in todays paper about borrowers taking out multiple successive loans from different lenders, to pay back the prior loans. Cute little ponzi schemes with the lenders thinking all is well as they head for the cliff.

Lending or borrowing without using common sense always turns out badly... how soon they forget. Know your borrower, and how they will pay you back.

JR

 

Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

smallbutfine

Re: The great international crisis swindle...
« Reply #33 on: August 13, 2009, 07:57:35 PM »
Oops...
'negative smack of unlimited hardcore-capitalism' was my expression as well as 'globalism' as a bad word in the context of mass unemployment in my country...
I did not want to be misunderstood.
I run my own business now...so I can be considered a capitalist as well....(*unlimited* was the magic word here...)
Globalization is going forward at a frightening speed which can lead to absurd situations, example:
Polish hospitals have to grant their nurses enough holiday / vacation so they can work for german private people that cannot afford german nurses and are not covered by nursing care insurance. The only way the polish nurses can pay their bills.
In the meantime the polish hospitals have to employ russian nurses that work for even less money to pay their bills in russia.
The question is who is going to work in russia? Ukraine? Chinese nurses? Huh?
Similar things happen in other businesses at the moment, mostly in the border areas - people are more and more forced to work in other countries to make a living, at least in europe, with all kind of crude consequences...
Well, sure I see things from a different point of view as many others might have. YMMV, my posts surely reflect my personal political beliefs...

Kind regards,
Martin


"In the past we suffered from crimes, today we suffer from laws."
Tacitus

www.audiomh.de

lolo-m

Re: The great international crisis swindle...
« Reply #34 on: August 15, 2009, 05:39:10 AM »
I'm buying an old factory on monday to make my recording studio and rent a few reheasal places. I'm a free-lance live sound engineer so I can be considered as a capitalist too... I'm not anti-capitalist at all, but I just don't like the way extreme (or hardcore) capitalism is corrupting the word nowadays...

Globalism can be a really good thing (aren't we an expression of globalism, sharing to everybody on earth our knowledge ?) but most of its effects are not really that nice... And I must agree I've got political convictions that some of us cannot share with me  ;)...
Medias (newspapers, TV and radio stations) are owned by huge economical trusts and I feel they are trying to make us think what they want us to think (at least in France)... The communication world we're living in isn't really free (for economical reasons). How can a journalist be free to make any critic about the hand that feeds him ?

I would like my two young children live in a peacefull world and I'm not sure it's the way world is walking on...
Hard to be a punk... But sometimes you have to...


 

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