Paradigm changing technology?

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toobdood

Well-known member
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Nov 12, 2008
Messages
100
http://www.heraldextra.com/news/article_b0372fd8-3f3c-11de-ac77-001cc4c002e0.html

  Just what seemed to be an excellent piece of news.  Peace, C
 
"...cram 20 to 40 kilowatt hours of energy into a package about the size of a refrigerator...
"...batteries expected to sell in the neighborhood of $2,000..."


I know "a package about the size of a refrigerator" -- a refrigerator! And it sells for (unless you go super-skimpy) $800-$1600. And it is mostly empty space, the rest is old-tech stuff that doesn't change for years at a time. (Except for the tail-fin on top, my new $1,200 GE icebox is the same as their 1998 model.)

And reefers install cheap. This has to tap your fusebox, usually a union job.

"...a chunk of solid sodium metal ... operate below 90 degrees C."

Even if the ceramic is dirt-cheap, even if the sulphur compound is low-cost, even if they get sodium re-cycled (from a nuke plant? yuk!), I think it is quite unrealistic to clean, assemble, and distribute a reefer full of sodium for not much more than a reefer full of shelves.

We were supposed to have Nuclear energy "too cheap to meter" by the 1970s. We were supposed to have superconductors by the 1980s. We have nuke-- a penny cheaper than coal at best (Salem), and sometimes ruinously costly (LIPA). Superconductors never got into wide use, and the recent atom-smasher coolant leak shows why.

I'll believe it when I see it in Home Depot.

And what after this 10 year life? I can't put a reefer full of sodium at the curb for trash pickup. I can't put a reefer out any more, because it has a pound of non-toxic gas... what about many-many pounds of explosive toxic sodium? I assume they will buy-back sodium, but what economics for pick-up and re-processing?

What happens when the sodium-battery truck gets hit by a beer truck? I've seen runaway gravel and garbage truck accidents, people killed, other vehicles crushed. Not common, but how tragic when it does happen? Heck, I can't ship spray-paint without special precautions.

It _IS_ a deal-changer in places with irregular energy flow. Solar don't work half the time. Windmills (outside Nebraska) don't work 2/3 of the time. Dams sometimes have to "waste" water to maintain downstream flow. A good bucket for electricity changes these situations.

But many of us are on massive nuke or coal generators. They have evolved to supply the quasi-constant demand. Only a small part of the total could be battery-shifted from evening peak to 3am slack. The only immediate effect would be that the natural gas peak-load generators would not run much. Oh, and smaller distribution losses at peak hour. Such changes in load-pattern might maybe save 10% on total cost. For most people, that would not justify this battery, even at $2K with zero percent loan.

It's great news for people far off the utility grid.

It may (in larger form) be good news for a utility with adequate base capacity but pinched at peak load.
 
Numbers--

At current utility rates and accepting the promise of $2K battery and $2/W PV:

I now pay $70/month for electric.

A $4,000 investment at 5%/year is $33/month principle and $16/month principle in the beginning.

If $4,000 is the total installed (and removed) price, it pays-off.

But I think $4K is optimistic.

In this area I can see $1K to deliver and hook-up a new installation (less for the replacement because tap-work is in place). I don't have a sunny roof.... much of my life in this area, we did NOT want summer sun beating on the roof. Trees were our friends. I'd have to pay $2K to have this monster sycamore taken out and the holly topped. I'd probably pay over $1K to have roof brackets installed at favorable angle. In my case, much more, because my house predates building codes and even sawn lumber (lot of small logs in the walls) and nobody would be responsible for it staying on without an Engineering Survey. Or I could pay $3K to take-out the Tulip Tree (one of the larger ones in the state) and $1K to A-frame my lawn.

At $8K before I see warm sodium, PV and battery is 40% more expensive than sipping the coal-burners by the river. Some people will pay 40% extra for "green", but most won't. Increased punitive taxes on carbon can shorten the difference, but we the people have an inalienable right to cheap energy and won't support a realistic self-penalty.

And while I understand why PV costs may finally be sliding, I just can't believe a 20KWH 3,650 cycle battery for $2,000 total cost. Certainly not for Early Adopters, and I doubt even by the time it does get into Home Depot.

It is very hard to beat a mature established technology. Even a bad one (making energy 50 miles away, transported through costly metal).
 
I have always felt that one of the better ways to manage land based storage of excess PV energy is just dump it back into the grid since it should coincide with peak or heavy usage.

For land based off grid storage extracting hydrogen from water by electrolysis, and then recovering it with a fuel cell may have more utility than hydrogen for cars. You can always just burn hydrogen for heat/hot water/etc.

The comparison of coal to nuclear is not counting the carbon legislation being proposed...

A sodium battery (bomb) sounds a little more scary (to me) than a hydrogen tank (especially land based)...  pick your poison.

JR
 
  Ah... to get PRR to respond in such detail.  Thanks for doing the math while I daydream.  I found the article to possess a little conjecture which is why I chose a nerdy thread title.  I know sodium is scary stuff.  Learning that NGK makes HUGE batteries that use old-style Beta-Alumina ceramics with their LIQUID SODIUM batteries was scary too.
  The central point to the article for me was the energy density of this and similar batteries.  I know that I don't know everything, but there are some things that I find fascinating and I felt that this was worthy to share.  I had run-in with something like this when I briefly worked for a Tier One part supplier for one of the Big Three that was spun-off and re-absorbed recently:  This company had a working prototype of a house-power supply that they mothballed. 
  I find it amazing when such technology gets to see the light of day.  How many ideas like this one are we deliberately kept unaware of because the energy-criminals and gov't prostitutes buy-it or kill-it before it even has the chance to breathe?  One of the clear threats outlined in the article is the potential devolution of the power grid.  The tech there is 110+ years old and the losses of the system alone are gross: On the order of 10%. 
  At heart I am a tech-hed who SERIOUSLY hopes that we can rig our way OUT of destroying the planet and use better applied technology to save and repair what we have.  Sodium is scary stuff, but a properly designed and built system that could capture what we presently throw away would make more than a dent, not to mention the daring in actually using such a technology on micro and macro scales. 
 
  I admit to being a dreamer and a romantic.  Raise your glass to hope, because sometimes it is all we have.
 
One of the few things I agree with the new guy about is increased infrastructure investment in the grid.

I consider some of the classical engineering constraints about electric vehicle batteries self imposed. Light weigh and rapid charging time is implicit if we accept that we must carry the batteries. Subways and electric buses don't carry batteries. lets get clever about connecting road ways to the cars and grid so batteries aren't even needed. 

JR

 
Do you think that there are some parallels to the "green tech" boom and what was occuring back during the transition into the Industrial Age??  I wonder if people were skeptical of switching to the light bulb from the oil lamp or if there were people to whom did not want to give up riding their horse n buggy???

Call me a fool but I am looking forward to what new innovations that are coming our way even though for much of this "green tech" stuff has fallen short of delivering any benenit for most people in costs, e.t.c. 

Probably it will be a few years before this stuff makes any real difference :-\
 
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