Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #100 on: January 30, 2019, 07:17:17 PM »
The one question nobody seems interested in is: "What do the Afghani themselves want?"
The conventional way to answer that is through democratic elections but those take years and multiple cycles before the public embraces such decision results. I don't think Afghanistan is even close yet. Even Iraq is still having infancy issues with their fledgling democracy but progressing nicely.
It's probably a difficult question to answer. With the people in Kabul not wanting Taliban power. But with the Taliban controlling >80% of the country, they're the ones you'd want to talk to.
I find it instructive that the Taliban political office is in a different country.  ::)
The Russians couldn't fix it. Now the Americans seem to realise they can't fix it either. We'll have to leave it to the Afghani to fix it. How hard that may be.
I don't expect anybody to fix it... :o  To make it follow a western model would take more money than their economy can support, and the world is weary of throwing money into that bottomless pit in the desert.  Historically it has only been a rest stop on the Silk Road, with a couple working ski areas (back in the good old days). I don't think the Taliban approve of ski bunnies.  ::)
We can surely expect another flow of refugees. My Afghani neighbour seems to think so. He doesn't like the Taliban either.
I think only the Taliban like the Taliban. There will be the typical exodus of citizens who aligned with the western advisors and who now have a target on their back.
Afghanistan has not known real peace for several decades (multiple generations). It will probably return to how it was before the Russians tried to impose their own form of security, so back to war lords and Taliban dividing up the booty (opium trade).  That is probably OK with the rest of the world as long as they only kill each other.


PS In passing, I saw an image in a recent newspaper of an aluminum factory in Afghanistan, I think it was owned by Rossnoeft?(Russian), but there was no explanation with the picture. I can't find more specific info. I think the Chinese have been investing into mining in the region (not to mention their "Belt and Road"). 
John Roberts
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