The Middle East Friendship Chart

As a follow up to UAE peace deal, El Al landed the first direct flight from Israel to UAE.

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Administration announced drawing down more troops from Iraq (something like 1/3).

JR

Not exactly ME news but at least Putin signs his work :

IMO it is no accident or sloppiness that agents used an easily identifiable soviet era nerve agent in an attempted assassination against Putin's political opposition critic (Navalny). Of course there is an infinitesimal chance that Putin was framed, but more likely he is just bragging about his ability to reach out and touch opposition critics with deadly nerve agents, to scare them.

JR

Looks like another middle east peace deal...

reuters said:

Bahrain on Friday became the second Gulf country after the UAE to strike an agreement to normalize relations with Israel.

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-bahrain-usa-advisor/bahrain-israel-normalisation-shows-peace-is-way-to-palestinian-rights-official-idUSKBN2622OH

The Saudis are not dealing yet, but allowed El Al to fly over Saudi airspace to reach UAE.

This looks like a positive trend.

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Afghan peace talks are challenged by a roadside bombing of the Afghan VP's convey, but he survived with minor injuries.

After decades (generations) of fighting, peace can be a difficult concept to grasp.

JR 

So much for peace breaking out everywhere... The conflict between (christian) Armenia and (muslim) Azerbaijan has resulted in some 500 deaths since late last month. This is not a new conflict, they have been at each other's throats since 1918 (Russian revolution). One subtle difference this time I notice Turkey providing military support for Azerbaijan. Turkey was never friendly with Armenia but seems more aggressive militarily in the region these days.

They both used to be states of the USSR and Russia has called for a truce, but the cease fire is not holding.
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I recall back in the 1950s growing up in northern New Jersey going past the "Old Armenian Home" as I walked to school every day (uphill both ways). Apparently after some early 20th century massacres a number of Christians were granted compassionate relocation to live in American safety. I suspect they are all dead now, they were old back in the 1950s. I just did a search and now it is a long term care facility. So similar gig, different old people.

JR

I guess international issues don't matter (dropped from debate) but Secretary of State Pompeo is planning to meet with Armenia and Azerbaijan this week in DC. Armenia was already scheduled to be here, so the admin invited Azerbaijan in the hope of, calming this down before it draws Turkey and Russia into it.

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As he often does Putin is opportunistically talking about military cooperation with China hoping to play two against one, or more likely the appearance of two against one.

JR

Kind of lost in the noise Sudan has agreed to normalize relations with Israel...

This has been in the works for a while but was delayed waiting for Sudan to make reparations for outstanding claims related to past bad behavior.

For any not paying close attention there is a coalition of nations in the middle east newly aligning with Israel in response to the common threat posed by Iran to stability in the region.

Elections have consequences and VP Biden announced plans to rejoin the Iran Nuclear deal and relax economic sanctions against Iran (that are working) if he wins. I have long followed then Sen Biden's policy proposals related to middle east (He was chairman of foreign relations committee). At least he is consistently wrong (IMO). 

Since the debate commission dropped the typical discussion of international relations (normally in the third/last debate) this was not discussed.

Iran and Russia are reportedly trying to interfere with the 2020 election. Russia meddling in US politics is not exactly news, but Iran getting involved here seems novel.

JR 

Reportedly Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to a US brokered cease fire starting tomorrow.

But they have been fighting for a century so who knows.

JR 

JohnRoberts said:

Reportedly Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to a US brokered cease fire starting tomorrow.

But they have been fighting for a century so who knows.

JR

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No surprise the cease fire did not hold... Azerbaijan even shot down a Russian copter.

New drama about pulling the remaining US military out of Iraq, and Afghanistan. President Trump considers this one of his campaign promises, there is pushback from top military and even comparisons to President Obama pulling US troops out of Iraq too soon, giving ISIS freedom to stand up.

I don't think Iraq today is the same as it was back in 2011. That said pulling out US troops of Iraq now will give Iran even more influence over Iraq.

Afghanistan as I have shared before is its own unique story. They haven't known peace for several generations, and there is no obvious end game to stand up a robust self sustaining central government there. Us staying or leaving Afghanistan will not dramatically change that reality but it is in our national interest to keep enough of a military presence there to whackamole any new ISIS upstarts.

I was hopeful that the new middle east coalition that was self-organizing after Israeli peace deals might take leadership and support their own middle east policing against ISIS threats but that is not likely to happen now (of course I could be wrong).

Mark your calendars this is me disagreeing with President Trump. IMO do not zero our presence in the middle east too suddenly.   

JR

eesh....

Iran’s Top Nuclear Scientist Killed in Attack, State Media Say

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/27/world/middleeast/iran-scientists-killed.html

scott2000 said:

eesh....

Iran’s Top Nuclear Scientist Killed in Attack, State Media Say

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/27/world/middleeast/iran-scientists-killed.html

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There were rumors of perhaps another strike against Iran's nuclear weapon development capability, probably by Israel. Israel's leader secretly flew to Saudi Arabia recently to meet with government leaders there. The timing suggests this could have been a heads up (my speculation).

If the Biden administration rolls back sanctions against the Iran government, they will be reinvigorated in that pursuit. If Iran is allowed to get nukes, the Saudis will want them too. This could not end well.

The number of peace treaties negotiated recently in the middle east, is pretty much a coalition in opposition to Iran's objectives in the region to gain more control and influence.   

JR

Not wanting to start or contribute to conspiracies, but I do wonder what the reason was for the recent (secret?) meeting between Netanyahu, MBS, and Mike Pompeo.  Discussion regarding Israeli assassination of the scientist?

Winston O'Boogie said:

Not wanting to start or contribute to conspiracies,

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of course... 8)

but I do wonder what the reason was for the recent (secret?) meeting between Netanyahu, MBS, and Mike Pompeo.  Discussion regarding Israeli assassination of the scientist?

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That was already my speculation.

Mike Pompeo was already traveling in the ME (visiting controversial settlements in Israel). He is also trying to finalize Afghanistan government power sharing agreement with Taliban to secure deeper troop draw downs.  Of course new rocket attacks in Kabul suggests not everyone is happy about the concept. Taliban denied responsibility for the rocket attacks, and ISIS took credit, which is not a good sign if actually true. The US military spanked Al Qaeda in only weeks after 9/11. Why we are still there now is unexplainable.

Israel working with the Saudis is arguably a positive development for peace in the region, while the sunni/shia divide persists. This also denies the popular wisdom from the left that the only path to middle east peace is through Palestine. I would not be surprised to see the pendulum swing back toward a strengthening Iran with the next administration. Not a prediction but likely outcome.

Any student of middle east history has seen Israel's military nip a handful of nuclear weapons programs in the bud over the last few decades in unfriendly neighboring nations. Iran understands this history so has most likely constructed hardened underground bunkers for their weapons program. The ultimate irony would be using a nuclear bunker buster to take out a nuclear weapons capability. 

The biggest western non-nuclear bunker busters would be anticipated and planned for. 

JR

JohnRoberts said:

That was already my speculation.

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Yeah, I suppose I wasn't exactly stating anything revelatory there was I  .

I don't disagree with anything you wrote.  I also profess that I don't know what would be the best route towards lasting peace over there.
I am sympathetic to the ongoing problem of Israeli settlements displacing Palestinian people, as is my girlfriend who is Jewish.  Her father is not so sympathetic, but we do discuss the situation and I like hearing his point of view.

Regarding the killing of the scientist, my hope is that Iran don't make any kind of retaliatory attack but... ?

Winston O'Boogie said:

Yeah, I suppose I wasn't exactly stating anything revelatory there was I  .

I don't disagree with anything you wrote.  I also profess that I don't know what would be the best route towards lasting peace over there.

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If it was easy it would already be done...

Any student of the region already has seen a long list of what doesn't work.

I am sympathetic to the ongoing problem of Israeli settlements displacing Palestinian people, as is my girlfriend who is Jewish.  Her father is not so sympathetic, but we do discuss the situation and I like hearing his point of view.

Regarding the killing of the scientist, my hope is that Iran don't make any kind of retaliatory attack but... ?

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We shouldn't look at these events in isolation. Israel is routinely attacked by surrogates of Iran... I think just last week Israel splatted a bunch on Syria's border who were firing missiles into Israeli territory.

Another recent "coincidence" is the Houthi (another Iranian surrogate) missile attack on Saudi refining.

The dead scientist may be payback, more likely a warning, but far from a spontaneous unrelated incident of Israeli aggression (if they indeed are behind it). When all your neighbors want you dead, you don't pick fights or try to start a war. The best way to stop a bully is often to bloody his nose (as Israeli military has effectively done before). 

Sorry I have been paying attention to this drama for decades and it is obviously complex and always changing, like sifting sands in the dessert.

JR 

PS: Agreed we don't want to make Iran too nervous, last time they suspected a counter attack they shot down a civilian airliner.

JohnRoberts said:

If it was easy it would already be done...

Any student of the region already has seen a long list of what doesn't work.

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Haha, yep.  There I went again, stating the bloody obvious 
I should have said that, given the absolute complexity of the issues, I don't feel qualified to even have an amateur stab at what might work.  My bad. 

JohnRoberts said:

We shouldn't look at these events in isolation.

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Yes of course.  I do try to back-track and follow the thread attached to specific events, but it gets messy very quickly what with all the knots. 

As of now, neither Israel nor the US has made a statement regarding the assassination, and it's highly possible they won't. 
Iran claims to have credible evidence it was an Israeli attack, and apparently there are cries in the streets of Tehran for revenge against the US but, hopefully, diplomacy and cool heads will prevail.

Too early to make any assumptions or conclusions about this particular incident,  I'm just holding out hope for the best. 

Winston O'Boogie said:

Yes of course.  I do try to back-track and follow the thread attached to specific events, but it gets messy very quickly what with all the knots. 

As of now, neither Israel nor the US has made a statement regarding the assassination, and it's highly possible they won't. 
Iran claims to have credible evidence it was an Israeli attack, and apparently there are cries in the streets of Tehran for revenge against the US but, hopefully, diplomacy and cool heads will prevail.

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Back a decade ago or more there was a pretty informative cable program that rebroadcast local news programs from the middle east region. Most of the broadcasts were already english language to mold western public opinion, but occasionally they would translate some important domestic broadcasts into english. Some of the broadcasts were obvious propaganda, promoting different world views.

A bit of a cliche but most speeches for domestic consumption given in Iran began with "Death to America". The same speaker when addressing the UN was still anti-American but less rabid. 

Too early to make any assumptions or conclusions about this particular incident,  I'm just holding out hope for the best.

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This dance has been going on for a long time. Iran has to be optimistic about sanctions relief in the near future. Iran reportedly placed some targeted anti-Trump ads in social media. What they will do with this new found revenue from relaxed trade restrictions with the west is likely to be more of what they are doing already, and were doing before.

What will be interesting to see is if the recent coalition of nations in the region, formed in collective opposition to Iran, can hold together without continuing US support. I have no speculation but hope the self-interest to do so persists into the future. Avoiding another middle east war is a good thing IMO.

JR 

I have already registered my disagreement right here with first President Obama expanding the western troop presence in Afghanistan because it was an un-winnable campaign. The actual enemy was al queada, and the Taliban's only crime was sheltering them (for money), giving Al Queada a base of operations to attack the west from.

The Taliban are deplorable by western standards but that alone does not justify regime change.

Now I disagree with President Trump's (too) rapid withdrawal of western troops from Afghanistan. It is unclear that more time would allow the central government in Kabul to ever stand up and police their entire country by themselves. The Kabul government will fall without perpetual western economic support (poor country) and Afghanistan will return to the previous balance of power with war lords controlling local regions (getting their revenue from the poppy trade), and the conservative religious Taliban controlling the poor countryside.

This power vacuum may look attractive to some other world power, but Russia still has institutional memory of the last time they tried to rule Afghanistan that didn't end well. China likely isn't willing to get sucked into that quagmire. It could be their turn to try and keep them busy, but I expect their approach might be more like their policy toward their own Uighar population. 

This was inevitable to any student of Afghanistan's history, but that does not make it any less painful to watch play out in slow motion. I expect a new round of immigrants leaving Afghanistan who have tasted western freedoms, escaping the return of Shariah law to previous Kabul government controlled areas.

JR 

Saudi Arabia and Qatar are making progress in finalizing their peace treaty.
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On a related topic, or not, US has announced another troop draw down, this time from Somalia... This does not make sense if it creates a lawless vacuum.

I would love to see a new coalition of regional powers stand up to pick up the slack, but right now that may just be wishful thinking. Who knows it's almost Christmas?

JR 

The Jewish Press is reporting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has died.  They say that the official announcement from Iran will likely not happen until after the transfer of power.

Edit:  I should add that this report is, as yet, unconfirmed

Not exactly the Middle East but Maduro just declared victory in a boycotted election in Venezuela with something like only 30% vote turnout.

This gives him even more control over the National assembly, if you don't question the vote...

JR