The Middle East Friendship Chart

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Winston O'Boogie said:
The Jewish Press is reporting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has died.  They say that the official announcement from Iran will likely not happen until after the transfer of power.

Edit:  I should add that this report is, as yet, unconfirmed
There was just a public sighting so he isn't dead (yet), but appears to have been incommunicado, otherwise being seen in public again wouldn't be news.

JR

PS: Sudan has been removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, so the sands continue to shift underfoot over there. Like the "arab spring" uprising a few years ago, I am unsure they can put this genie back in the bottle. 
 
I haven't been able to find a clean video but Iranian backed fighters shot rockets into the green zone of Iraq. The anti-missile technology used to protect the US embassy was impressive in action.

I know that Israel pioneered anti-missile technology because of the near constant attacks from their neighbors.

JR

[update - just read that it was 21 missiles aimed at the US embassy in the green zone, that is arguably an act of war, but Iran probably wiped off their finger prints. Iran was reportedly behind the drone ship attack against Saudi oil. /update]
 
Not exactly middle east but I just read about a joint military flight over the sea of Japan and East China Sea, with Chinese and Russian strategic (big/high altitude) bombers flying together. They said there was no unspoken motive, but clearly international 3D chess playing odd man out against the US, and challenging the next administration.

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan allies got the message loud and clear. This is also Putin posturing to punch above his weight on the world stage by playing footsies with China.

Interesting, don't underestimate China. The partisian debate over whether Russia or China are the bad guys is a false choice. They both want to bury us, both are the bad guys.

JR
 
The world hasn't stopped turning and some are taking advantage of the preoccupation with the election to behave badly...

China has arrested more democracy activists in hong kong (something like 50 more in the latest arrest).

Russia and China performing joint military exercises... hmm

Iran seized a South Korean oil tanker in the straits of Hurmuz presumably for leaking oil, but will let them go if they release a release sanction related Iranian assets held by So. Korea (coincidence?).

An Iraqi oil tanker in the strati discovered a mine attached to it, but disarmed it.

Maduro in Venezuela has seated his puppet congress, so refuses to leave.

The Taliban have reengaged in peace talks with Afghan government in Kabul but we've seen this before.

Qatar has negotiated better relations with the Saudis and their other neighbors, so the progress toward a coalition of nations aligned again Iran in the region continues.

Iran has reported stepping up to 20% nuclear enrichment, the 2015 agreement called for <4%. Weapons grade requires 90%. 

There's more but those are a few high lights. 

JR
 
Votes have consequences and we are seeing early shifts in new administration Middle East policy. Previously the US had supported Saudi efforts in Yemen against Houthi rebels. Since this was a proxy war between The Saudis and Iran, this pivot is a major shift toward US support of Iran.

Watch for more such changes.

JR
 
To give credit where credit is due, President Biden has announced that he will not remove the Trump sanctions against Iran until they stop their elevated enrichment program. The Iranian leader said he will only cut back on enrichment after sanctions are released. Iran has an election coming up in several months so the leadership is under a lot of pressure to improve economic conditions for their citizens. The Abraham accords are also putting more pressure on Iran.

The US removing support for Saudi effort in Yemen was arguably a win for Iran, this is unquestionably a loss.

For the record I remain opposed to the original Iran deal that only postpones Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions, doesn't completely eliminate it, but politicians can't think in terms longer than the next election cycle, kicking the can down the road for another administration. 

JR
 
JohnRoberts said:
Votes have consequences and we are seeing early shifts in new administration Middle East policy. Previously the US had supported Saudi efforts in Yemen against Houthi rebels. Since this was a proxy war between The Saudis and Iran, this pivot is a major shift toward US support of Iran.

Watch for more such changes.

JR
6 years of indiscriminate civilian bombing and naval air blockades designed to starve an entire population to death, described as "efforts"?

Perhaps the US came to the conclusion that continuing support for war crimes and war criminals, is terrible PR. Fastest way for the US to go back to pretending it has a soul, is to throw their butcher clients under the bus.

Also poor understanding of the term proxy. Saudi Arabia is directly and openly engaged in Yemen.
If it was a proxy war (it isn't), it's between US and Iran.
 
JohnRoberts said:
For the record I remain opposed to the original Iran deal that only postpones Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions, doesn't completely eliminate it, but politicians can't think in terms longer than the next election cycle, kicking the can down the road for another administration. 

JR
Read the NPT. Try and understand it. However hard you spin the Iran deal into a replacement, it isn't. NPT limitations on Iran are permanent and non-negotiable.

But no piece of paper or any amount of western exceptionalism can stop Iran from acquiring the bomb, if it decided to get one. Getting them to sign a second NPT, thinking they're too stupid to build one, or bombing them into the ground wouldn't change a thing: as soon as they acquired breakout capability, this game was over.

Same goes for Japan, S. Korea, Brazil, S. Africa and a long list of others who are only held back by political considerations. Like Iran, they all have the know-how and none of them can unlearn it. So why keep pretending there's a 'better' deal that can prevent them from ever getting the bomb?
 
Banzai said:
6 years of indiscriminate civilian bombing and naval air blockades designed to starve an entire population to death, described as "efforts"?

Perhaps the US came to the conclusion that continuing support for war crimes and war criminals, is terrible PR. Fastest way for the US to go back to pretending it has a soul, is to throw their butcher clients under the bus.

Also poor understanding of the term proxy. Saudi Arabia is directly and openly engaged in Yemen.
If it was a proxy war (it isn't), it's between US and Iran.
The Houthi rebels just took credit in tweets for two drone attacks on Saudi Airports.

The Saudis are supporting the internationally recognized government of Yemen, so maybe make that Iran against UN too.

If it isn't a proxy war it is between Iran (who is supplying the advanced weapons technology to the Houthis) and the Saudis.  Nobody wants this to go all out open warfare. When Iran was at war with Iraq, they both reportedly used poison gas, but Saddam even used poison gas against his own people (the Kurds).

===

regarding the "Iran deal"  Saddam and Gaddafi both had nuclear programs that were stopped. Sadly 8 years after Gaddafi abandoned his nuclear program in 2003, he was killed by Nato backed rebel forces. IMO this was a gross miscalculation by western powers as it telegraphs a rather unpleasant outcome to any other  leaders who surrender their nuclear programs. North Korea and Iran leadership do not want to experience a similar fate.

Iran is reportedly working with N Korean to develop advanced long range missile capability so they can extend the reach for a nuclear weapons delivery threat.

UN inspectors recently found new evidence of undeclared nuclear activities in Iran, and Iran wants the world to trust them and remove the sanctions first.

Iran has an election coming up in matter of months and are feeling the full effects of the sanctions. Now is when we have the best leverage to press for a better outcome but I do not have much faith in the new administration. To their credit they have kept the sanctions in place for now, so lets hope for a good result.

JR   
 
JohnRoberts said:
The Houthi rebels just took credit in tweets for two drone attacks on Saudi Airports.
The Saudi's are at war with Yemen. This concept of being at war abroad but at peace at home is another fantasy American export. If the Saudi's don't enjoy having their airports bombed, perhaps they should stop bombing their neighbour.

(Saudi targets have included Yemeni airports, schools, school busses, food markets, weddings, funerals, prisons, ports, water supplies, food supplies, foreign embassies and anywhere else you can imagine that's usually filled with civilians)

The Saudis are supporting the internationally recognized government of Yemen, so maybe make that Iran against UN too.
The "internationally recognized government of Yemen", residing inside a hotel in Riyadh?? This so-called government doesn't control any territory in Yemen.

Good time to mention the coup of Aden, and the current control of South Yemen by UAE backed separatists. The exact same thing Iran is blamed for in the North, was done by the UAE in the South. In response, Iran gets Haley and Pompeo faking outrage on TV. UAE gets F35's.

If it isn't a proxy war it is between Iran (who is supplying the advanced weapons technology to the Houthis) and the Saudis.
The Zaidi's have governed North Yemen for the last 1000 years. Iran didn't wish them into existence, and the only way the Saudi's and US have found to discount them as real people with real concerns, is to label them as 'proxies'. Iran isn't involved more than France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, Italy, Canada, Russia, China, and whoever else is arming either of the sides. There are no Iranian planes bombing Yemen or Saudi Arabia. No Iranian soldiers fighting in Yemen, or invading Saudi Arabia.

US and UK play a much larger role since they provide unlimited weapons sales, aerial targeting assistance, aerial refuelling capabilities, and directly service and train the Saudi military on the ground. Without the US military providing spare parts and ground personnel, the Saudi airforce couldn't operate at all.

(even under your new definition, if you want to include Iran in any form, it's still a US-Iran proxy war. US arms Saudi's. Iran arms Houthi's)

Nobody wants this to go all out open warfare. When Iran was at war with Iraq, they both reportedly used poison gas, but Saddam even used poison gas against his own people (the Kurds).
This is already all out open warfare. Hundred thousand Yemeni's dead, 20 million at risk of famine, infrastructure turned to rubble and over 90% dependent on imports!

Iraq used chemical weapons on Iran. Iran didn't respond in kind. Americans provided Saddam with satellite imagery and targeting info on Iranian troop movements, knowing he would be using mustard gas. This complicity led the US to lie about Iraq's WMD use until 1990 and the invasion of Kuwait. Only then did it become convenient for the US to confirm what everyone already knew, and the rest leading up to 2003 is history.

FP.png


(https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/26/exclusive-cia-files-prove-america-helped-saddam-as-he-gassed-iran/)

Otherwise under no scenario is it realistic to think any GCC country stands a chance militarily. Iraq took Kuwait in a day. 30 years later GCC countries are still extremely soft targets with their economic infrastructures fully exposed on their coastlines. Doesn't matter how much they spend on advanced western military equipment if they can't defend their installations (desalination plants, oil and gas plants, airports, ports).

regarding the "Iran deal"  Saddam and Gaddafi both had nuclear programs that were stopped. Sadly 8 years after Gaddafi abandoned his nuclear program in 2003, he was killed by Nato backed rebel forces. IMO this was a gross miscalculation by western powers as it telegraphs a rather unpleasant outcome to any other  leaders who surrender their nuclear programs. North Korea and Iran leadership do not want to experience a similar fate.
Libya had an active nuclear weapons research program, but little actual know-how. Giving away something they never had in favour of sanctions relief was easy. We all know the US lied about the status and reach of Iraq's weapons programs. Neither of these countries had Iran's nuclear fuel cycle development, nor achieved break-out capability. Iran already has.

Can't undo know-how.

Iran is reportedly working with N Korean to develop advanced long range missile capability so they can extend the reach for a nuclear weapons delivery threat.
They already have the capability. Can't put satellites into orbit without it.

UN inspectors recently found new evidence of undeclared nuclear activities in Iran, and Iran wants the world to trust them and remove the sanctions first.
US isn't 'the world' and no-one trusts the US either.

There are no ongoing undeclared nuclear activities in Iran since they telegraph every violation to the IAEA a month before they do it. That's how you read about violations in the press the day they happen. Also remains the most heavily inspected country on the planet.

(Iran's weapons research program ended in 2003. Date verified by every one of your 17 intelligence agencies in consecutive NIE's. Supposed haul of secret files by the Israeli's were also all pre-2003)

Iran has an election coming up in matter of months and are feeling the full effects of the sanctions. Now is when we have the best leverage to press for a better outcome but I do not have much faith in the new administration. To their credit they have kept the sanctions in place for now, so lets hope for a good result.
It's over. Time to learn to live with Iran's break-out capability. Can't ever be undone.

Your partisan bias also omits Trump's total failure to achieve any kind of progress or results. All he did was put Americans at risk of reprisals and made millions of Iranians suffer. Neither of those outcomes are in line with US interests or supposed values.

Final comment on your support of sanctions: no-one with power in Iran, Cuba, North Korea, Syria or Venezuela suffers from a lack of food, medication, or basic supplies. The misery falls squarely on those who struggle to live a normal life under the best of conditions. Result of your sanctions is to guarantee their lives become impossible.

Continued support for blockades in the current state of the world is messed up, even for someone with your political convictions.
 
Looks like US military splashed an Iran backed shia militia position in Syria linked to the recent rocket attacks against US personnel in Iraq. This attack was characterized as defensive by US military to prevent more similar attacks. I am not sure Iran sees it the same way.

===
Israeli vessel in straits of Hormuz had two holes blown into it above the water line. Looks like some kind of messaging from Iran leadership who did not accept responsibility for the attack. 

Interesting times.

JR
 
Unrelated topic, have you guys seen the TV series Homeland? it really makes you wonder about everything you guys are saying.
 
Every year on the anniversary of the Armenian genocide (Ottorman extermination of roughly 1.5M Armenians in 1915-17) this rises to awareness. This year is not different.

The US has historically not pressed modern Turkey (a NATO member) over this to avoid embarrassment. President Obama campaigned that he would acknowledge this, but didn't while in office. President Biden broke with recent policy by recognizing the genocide by presidential announcement (there were at least two congressional resolutions passed over the years).

For TMI where I grew up in northern New Jersey, I used to walk past the "old Amernian home" on my way to school. The US offered shelter to displaced Armenians, who are surely all dead now, they were "old" in the 1950s.

For comparison President Biden has excused the Uyghur genocide as a "different norm". Yup, different from UN conventions. Over one million Uyghur are held on forced labor camps and exposed to multiple atrocities.

I am not smart enough to make sense of such disparate policy other than the obvious kissing up to a rising world power, and throwing another former ally under the bus (while Turkey has proven a questionable ally.)

While international relations are not obvious or trivial, this definitely provides a bright shiny news item to distract the media.

JR
 
You should really broaden your horizon, John.

I figured I must have missed that. So I did a search...

Again, it's right-wing propaganda media spreading a half-truth. The only mainstream medium I could find, was the New-York Post. Twice, for that matter.

Biden seems to have chosen his words with extreme caution. But his administration named it an ongoing genocide and stated the atrocities hadn't stopped, as reported by the Washington Examiner:

Biden officials contend a genocide “was” occurring and say the administration is “unaware” of the “atrocities” ceasing, but on Tuesday, they repeatedly dodged the specific question of whether there is a continued genocide in Xinjiang. Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledged China had committed genocide in sworn testimony as a nominee for the top diplomat role, but it remains stubbornly unclear whether the Biden administration will take that stance about the present situation in the western province.
March 09, 2021

There could be reasons for the state department being overly diplomatic. That's what they are, isn't it? Diplomats?

Maybe they just felt two genocides on their hands at one time to be a bit too much?

I also don't see what this is doing in a thread about the Middle East. It's quite tiring that an intelligent fellow like yourself doesn't seem able to stop beating the dead horse.

And by "dead horse", I don't mean Joe Biden :D
 
For anyone interested in the history of the Turkic people in Xinjiang, there's a fairly complete Wikipedia page about it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_conflict

It's not undisputed, but that's to be expected. It shows Russia's influence, but leaves out the CIA's propaganda efforts in the region, fi.

The Turkic people saved the Chinese empire many centuries ago. Of course, that's not taken into account by today's communist party.

As far as I can tell, terrorism hasn't been a real threat since 2017. Wether that's due to extreme suppression by the Chinese govt, I can't tell.

What is clear, however, is that terrorism was present. To argue that Al Qaeda terrorism doesn't matter in this case, would be highly hypocritical.
 
Here's another non-partisan view on the matter, from Brown university:

https://brownpoliticalreview.org/2017/05/changing-course-strategic-flaws-chinese-governments-treatment-uyghur-minority/
 
cyrano said:
You should really broaden your horizon, John.

I figured I must have missed that. So I did a search...

Again, it's right-wing propaganda media spreading a half-truth. The only mainstream medium I could find, was the New-York Post. Twice, for that matter.

Biden seems to have chosen his words with extreme caution. But his administration named it an ongoing genocide and stated the atrocities hadn't stopped, as reported by the Washington Examiner:
March 09, 2021

There could be reasons for the state department being overly diplomatic. That's what they are, isn't it? Diplomats?

Maybe they just felt two genocides on their hands at one time to be a bit too much?

I also don't see what this is doing in a thread about the Middle East. It's quite tiring that an intelligent fellow like yourself doesn't seem able to stop beating the dead horse.

And by "dead horse", I don't mean Joe Biden :D
The only newspaper I read is the WSJ (I've been reading it since the 70s).

I noticed a policy shift between Biden administration and Turkey wrt Armenia.

https://www.newsweek.com/armenians-celebrate-bidens-genocide-declaration-furious-turkey-summons-us-ambassador-1586232

===
I agree that conflating the Uyghur atrocities with ottoman genocide is not exactly apples to apples, but in my judgement it is more than just an acceptable "cultural norm" and close enough to declare hypocrisy.

JR

 
What's real hypocrisy, in my eyes, is selling arms to Saudi-Arabia, to be used against the population of Yemen, while having an ally like Israel that's committing genocide in Palestine.
 
cyrano said:
What's real hypocrisy, in my eyes, is selling arms to Saudi-Arabia, to be used against the population of Yemen, while having an ally like Israel that's committing genocide in Palestine.
This is a pretty old topic but the sunni/shia divide in the middle east is worse than democrats vs republicans (while that is heating up lately).

The Yemen drone attacks against Saudi Arabia oil infrastructure is proxy Iranian aggression.

The Palestinian/Israeli conflict was proxy warfare from pretty much the entire middle east vs. Israel, but since the Abraham Accord, Israel has been peeling off old enemies and normalizing relations with several of their neighbors. I can't imagine putting that genie back in the bottle (like the Arab spring), but relaxing sanctions against Iran will free up more resources for their regional mischief.

I wish there was a simple answer for the sunni/shia divide. Historically they only live side by side peacefully under strict authoritarian rule. I am not smart enough to predict an outcome but expect decades more of strife.

Pulling western support out of Afghanistan will empower the Taliban to impose their governance over the city mice... they already control the country mice.

JR 
 

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