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+1
Cos most of what we get to read in financial articles and finance-related media coverage is advertisement trying to push products.

I prefer 'informed' projection to guessing -- and I was thinking (very) short term development -- also because 5.000 was an important barrier just a few months ago.

Some predict BTC will be complete history in a few years, others see it at 100.000 by the end of this year. I've seen many people lose a lot way back in the dotcom craze, including their private pension schemes -- hence my concerns.

Anyway, right now not a single week passes, it seems, without a new crypto being announced and blockchain technology being widely adopted in payment systems, interbanking processess etc etc

So I guess that BTC has served its purpose already.
 
Script said:
Anyway, right now not a single week passes, it seems, without a new crypto being announced and blockchain technology being widely adopted in payment systems, interbanking processess etc etc

Nah, that was last week.  This week all the corporations that were starting blockchain projects last week are pulling out as fast as they can!  ::)
 
Mbira said:
Nah, that was last week.  This week all the corporations that were starting blockchain projects last week are pulling out as fast as they can!  ::)
Perhaps telling, the guy who changed the name of his company to "bitcoin riot" (previously it was some kind of medical research company) just sold 500,000 shares after it rose from single digits up to $45 a share, and did a secondary offering to raise more capital.

He reduced his ownership from around 10% before to about 1% now.  Why in the world would anybody buy that stock, then or now? A fool and his money are soon parted.

JR
 
Perhaps telling, the guy who changed the name of his company... just sold 500,000 shares
Not necessarily dumb. That's enough to retire (even after capital gains tax). But I bet he has very expensive hobbies...
 
Script said:
Not necessarily dumb. That's enough to retire (even after capital gains tax). But I bet he has very expensive hobbies...
He was definitely not dumb...  ::)  The people who bought his stock renamed "blockchain riot"...? use your own judgement.

JR
 
Interestingly while there has been a lot of talk in the past year about regulating CryptoCurrencies to protect investors, in the last two days a popular stock trade of shorting volatility, which had been doing great for about the past year, blew up with the relatively minor market pullback. Investors (gamblers) would buy XIV, which gained when market volatility fell (VIX). It started a year ago at $62, peaked at $144 a week ago, then crashed to $4 today.
The amount of ETF/ETN has ballooned to be much more than the number of underlying stocks with many employing margin to increase returns (but also decrease when the wind changes direction).
 
dmp said:
Interestingly while there has been a lot of talk in the past year about regulating CryptoCurrencies to protect investors, in the last two days a popular stock trade of shorting volatility, which had been doing great for about the past year, blew up with the relatively minor market pullback. Investors (gamblers) would buy XIV, which gained when market volatility fell (VIX). It started a year ago at $62, peaked at $144 a week ago, then crashed to $4 today.
The amount of ETF/ETN has ballooned to be much more than the number of underlying stocks with many employing margin to increase returns (but also decrease when the wind changes direction).
I am not sure what this has to do with bitcoin...

Shorting anything is a gamble.

Shorting volatility may have worked recently because volatility has been unusually low. This is a classic case of momentum investing (investing in something because it "was" working) without understanding why it was working. As central banks around the world withdraw liquidity (they are still years behind the US central bank) the markets should start behaving more normally (I hope). 

XIV (which is VIX spelled backwards) is one of those funny investments like we saw cost people a lot of money in 2007/8. I don't recall the exact number but probably billions in wealth evaporated overnight .... poof. 

JR

PS: There was an article about cryptocurrency arbitrage in WSJ this week. As you noted before, transaction costs, and difficulty moving money around the world still makes this hard to do... but that doesn't stop people from trying until we get efficient markets for this novel asset class.
 
I am not sure what this has to do with bitcoin...
Regulators have been talking about how they have to protect people from bitcoin & other cryptocurrencies, while financial investments are given a free pass.

I was trying to point out how risky some financial investments are, while given a green light by regulators. The credit default swaps and mortgage backed securities that contributed to the meltdown in 2008 - now the ETF/ETN gambling vehicles like XIV in 2018.
 
dmp said:
Regulators have been talking about how they have to protect people from bitcoin & other cryptocurrencies, while financial investments are given a free pass.
I am not a fan of regulation as an answer for everything, because the regulators are rarely the smartest people in the room.

That said I worry about dumb money, like all those home buyers back in  the early 2000s who expected home prices to keep going up to the sky. They didn't and we saw the result. Bitcoin is (was?) another momentum trade, where people have little understanding about the underlying technology, but wouldn't mind making some easy money. The lack of a correction in the stock market for too long attracted a lot of weak hands to buy stocks. Many of them got washed out by the correction.  No amount of regulation could help them.

Recently one or more credit card companies have refused to allow customers to buy bitcoin with their cards. I doubt the CC companies are trying to protect the customers as much as protecting themselves as they may end up with huge losses when the music stops and they have large unsettled positions to clear at rapidly falling prices.

Not all large investment banks allow bitcoin transactions, and some have been very vocal about the appearance of a bubble mentality, while simultaneously pedalling as fast as they can to incorporate blockchain technology into their back room operations. 

More institutional trading of Bitcoin would reduce the large price arbitrage that exists due to trading inefficiency (for better and worse).
I was trying to point out how risky some financial investments are, while given a green light by regulators. The credit default swaps and mortgage backed securities that contributed to the meltdown in 2008 - now the ETF/ETN gambling vehicles like XIV in 2018.
Yes... dumb money buying stuff just because it was working....  After going as long as we did without a proper stock market correction, shorting VIX was a winning trade, until it wasn't.

I am not a fan of financial engineering (especially high speed trading), and I am even apprehensive about unintended consequences from something as transparent as index investing (eliminating or reducing  pricing discipline for individual stocks).

Blockchain will continue to grow in utility, Bitcoin will find its own level, without me.  I am nervous about common stocks (at my age) but don't see a better alternative yet. Bitcoin is not it for me, YMMV.

JR

PS: I have heard one interesting discussion that Blockchain may be a solution for the large number of (poor) unbanked people in the world. A safe secure store of wealth could help them rise out of poverty ( rule of law and property ownership are important factors.) IMO Bitcoin is not the right vehicle but some variant running on smartphones could be the answer.  Mobile phone money transfers are growing in popularity in India and Africa. Blockchain could be useful for securing title to property in undeveloped areas.  I don't think this is a fad, but I can't predict where it takes us. It could be a game changer for many people.
 
Regulators have been talking about how they have to protect people from bitcoin & other cryptocurrencies, while financial investments are given a free pass [...] I was trying to point out how risky some financial investments are, while given a green light by regulators.
+1
Yes, misinformation is high.

- Any kind of leverage product is very high risk. Everybody knows (or should know) it.
- With any financial product, the 'issuer risk' is all too often overlooked.
- In general, new products, like IPOs and cryptos, are by definition high risk cos they have no (long) history.
- Stop/loss sell orders are risky and only make sense if buyer was not fully convinced of the investment in the first place, or for very short-term speculation.
- To my understanding, the least risky financial products are 'value' stocks, that is, companies that have been around for long and done well. Strangely enough they rank as 'very high risk' (i.e., stocks = risk of total loss).

Conservative risk management techniques:
- Never invest more than can afford to avoid having to sell at unfavourable point in time (always keep some cash for unexpected expenses in life).
- Get informed about the product. It's surprising how much time people spend researching e.g. a simple smartphone before purchasing and then throw a multiple of that amount at financial products they hardly understand.
- Never buy if not willing or able to hold for at least five years.
- Never 'bet' on a single horse. Make it a basket across different industry branches.
- Get rid of a loser investment quickly and maybe sell together with a 'lame' winner at the same time to even out the loss.
- Once fully convinced of a financial product and proven right, buy more on recovery after a dip (i.e. 'stockpiling' or 'averaging down the dollar'). Could later sell the more 'expensive' position first on next high if cash is needed. (To avoid FIFO, keep in separate portfolios.)

These technique don't generate the highest ROI but yield a more consistent outcome in the long run and better sleep at night  ;)

----
BTW, after touching $6,000, BTC is up to $10,000 again. Was that foreseeable? Yes and no -- hence: risky. The drop from $20,000 to $6,000 was a minus of 70% -- ouch. Back up to $10,000 is still -50% from all-time high. What's up next? No idea.

----

Central banks regulating BTC strikes me as proof that they are taking the technology seriously.
 
Script said:
+1
Yes, misinformation is high.
Regulators are clamping down on several "pump and dump" schemes where OTC penny stocks have been renamed "Bitcoin something" or other and enjoyed sales bumps.
- Any kind of leverage product is very high risk. Everybody knows (or should know) it.
Unfortunately not, for many younger people they have only seen a market that moves in one direction.  Leverage has always been a way to multiply return by multiplying risk, good until it isn't and often ends badly.
- With any financial product, the 'issuer risk' is all too often overlooked.
And security of sundry cryptocoin exchanges...not to mention the crypto's themselves.
- In general, new products, like IPOs and cryptos, are by definition high risk cos they have no (long) history.
IPOs are mature while cryptos are really unknown.

Despite IPOs being mature, that market has changed with venture capital jumping in front of new venture IPOs to buy them while still private. This had lead to crazy high valuations for unproved startups and under performing IPOs that are not a new as most IPOs were.
- Stop/loss sell orders are risky and only make sense if buyer was not fully convinced of the investment in the first place, or for very short-term speculation.
It is a common practice (with active traders) to use a running stop below a rising risky stock to prevent a downside loss from a reversal, bus as we've shared this can bite you in high volatility (like in cryptos).  Stock market volatility has been unusually low recently, but the recent dip seems to signal some return to normal volatility (perhaps explained by central bankers withdrawing liquidity that put a bid under all stocks).
- To my understanding, the least risky financial products are 'value' stocks, that is, companies that have been around for long and done well. Strangely enough they rank as 'very high risk' (i.e., stocks = risk of total loss).
The value of "value" stocks ebbs and flows with other types of stocks. Right now "growth" stocks like FACE, are more attractive to buyers than value, that suggests the value segment may be smarter contrarian bet. BUT all stocks are relatively expensive P/E right now, just not a bad as a few weeks ago,
Conservative risk management techniques:
- Never invest more than can afford to avoid having to sell at unfavourable point in time (always keep some cash for unexpected expenses in life).
There is an old investment axiom "the market can remain irrational longer than a smart trader can remain solvent". Humorous but also true. So not only must you be correct, but the market must be reasonably rational, or as rational as it gets (i,e, trading on fundamentals). 
- Get informed about the product. It's surprising how much time people spend researching e.g. a simple smartphone before purchasing and then throw a multiple of that amount at financial products they hardly understand.
true... people are buying anything crypto, because they see high returns, not because of any fundamental value explanation.
- Never buy if not willing or able to hold for at least five years.
That depends on investments vs trades. A short term trade can be based on some specific event. I generally do not trade (I am not smart enough) but have made a handful over my decades in the market. Years ago I was watching a congressional hearing where they were bad mouthing Fannie and Freddie and the stock dropped like a rock. I didn't expect congress to anything so I bought. I ended up selling it 2 weeks later at a nice profit.

More recently (over a year ago) I bought Twitter expecting some big company to buy it because it was too cheap IMO. After waiting long enough with several companies kicking the tires but nobody stepping up to buy, I sold my position (at a nice profit). Of course after I sold, twitter reported their first quarterly profit and the stock is now rising. An old market discipline is to never turn a trade into an investment or an investment into a trade. I stuck to my discipline by selling Twitter, but in January I traded (sold) a few of my long term investments, that had run too far and made me uncomfortable due to high prices.  Besides Twitter, Amazon was my only (profitable) sale in Jan that rose higher after I sold it.  (I was lucky not smart, and after the dip put some of that money back to work in other quality stocks that were on sale as the whole market fell in lockstep.)
- Never 'bet' on a single horse. Make it a basket across different industry branches.
Diversification.... A common mistake is for people who work for a large company to have too much of that one company's stock in their IRA. Take advantage of stock awards and "buy some get some", but remain diversified. 
- Get rid of a loser investment quickly and maybe sell together with a 'lame' winner at the same time to even out the loss.
When deciding to sell a stock you should look at future expectations not how much you paid for it (easier to say than do). If the fundamental investment rationale has changed, then by all means sell it, but sometimes a dip has nothing to do with the company fundamentals and is an opportunity to reduce your basis (admittedly I haven't seen that very often in my portfolio, with several losers that disappeared down into the dirt after I flushed them.). 
- Once fully convinced of a financial product and proven right, buy more on recovery after a dip (i.e. 'stockpiling' or 'averaging down the dollar'). Could later sell the more 'expensive' position first on next high if cash is needed. (To avoid FIFO, keep in separate portfolios.)
The FIFO provision in the recent tax law was removed. They were going to insist that when selling part of a stock holding you would have to sell the oldest (lowest priced) first, generating the most paper profit. That would have complicated portfolio management even more.  There are restrictions on short term sales and buybacks where too short of a non-holding period is ignored as if you never sold them.
These technique don't generate the highest ROI but yield a more consistent outcome in the long run and better sleep at night  ;)
smart traders manage upside potential vs downside risk... While the future hasn't happened yet so is impossible to know we can know in general how much is at risk. Shorting something can have unlimited risk... the recent market dip was amplified by investments that were shorting volatility that got crushed. It appears they didn't have a good handle on that potential downside. 
----
BTW, after touching $6,000, BTC is up to $10,000 again. Was that foreseeable? Yes and no -- hence: risky. The drop from $20,000 to $6,000 was a minus of 70% -- ouch. Back up to $10,000 is still -50% from all-time high. What's up next? No idea.

----
-short term who knows,
-mid term up as more dumb money investors learn about it (with short term volatility up/down),
-long term again who knows? Not me.
Central banks regulating BTC strikes me as proof that they are taking the technology seriously.
Everybody is or should take blockchain seriously, bitcoin is too scary for this old fart to invest in.  More regulation will help investment credibility, but they still need to clean some snakes out of the woodpile, and foreign governments are worried about capital controls (something that bitcoin supposedly avoids). 

JR
 
The FIFO provision in the recent tax law was removed.
Lucky you  :) That makes management so much easier. 'First-in-first-out' is a PITA.

When deciding to sell a stock you should look at future expectations not how much you paid for it (easier to say than do). If the fundamental investment rationale has changed, then by all means sell it
Absolutely. And as you said elsewhere:
Look for fundamentals on what to buy, look for chart when to buy.
Similar for selling. Although chart might not be as important then.

[...] all stocks are relatively expensive P/E right now[...]
Nobody knows but I expect/hope markets to fall a bit more (Trump hausse since November wiped out or back to MA200). Maybe it's a mistake -- but I like to play safe when investing. Trading is a different thing.

An old market discipline is to never turn a trade into an investment or an investment into a trade
Very good advice. Should heed with more discipline ;)

---------------

- Another piece of advice (the most difficult one): Train to keep emotions out of it.

- Also, banks sometimes advise private people to invest into no more than 5 to 10 different stocks at a time. Not sure this is good advice (unless you really know what you are doing). Professionals tend to never invest more than 4% (most often even less) into one single stock for diversification (but need to keep an eye on cost). However, this makes both money and risk management more time consuming... and it's a boring job, pretty much like laying bricks.

- An alternative (also good for beginners): Skip funds, skip ETFs. Instead consider stock savings plans if low on 'dispensable' money. Meaning: buy fractions of several stock on a regular basis (maybe every quarter or so) to 'average the dollar'.

- Maybe read stock fund brochures. What's in it? Usually it's a mix of big 'conservative' and smaller 'momentum' investments. DIY: Ready the schematic and clone it, that is, cut the middlemen and buy the stocks yourself, instead of paying a company or portfolio manager to do it for you.

- And: Never ever 'throw' everything (or too much) onto the market at the same time (very high risk!). Said differently: always keep some cash.

------------

Some of the above also holds for cryptos.
 
Back on topic (sort of) the Venezuela "Petro", their ICO for a oil backed crypto currency kicked off today.

Unlike other cryptos this one is supposedly backed by hard assets (oil in the ground). There are too many red flags to list them all, but one obvious one is the low trustworthiness of Maduro.

From a pricing perspective, they want to value this as equal to market price for venezuela oil, but you don't need to be an economist to realize that oil underground is not worth as much as oil sitting in a tanker.

Then who will accept this? Some speculate they can pay western oil companies in "petros"  ::). If oil companies could expect to exchange them for oil, they would barter oil for what they are already owed.

This will be an interesting economic experiment to watch as the Venezuela public has little choice but to accept "petros" as pay (most in venezuela work for the government because there is so little private sector business). 

At best the Petros will replace the highly inflated Bolivar, but whether they can maintain the peg to the market price of Venezuelan oil seems rather unlikely IMO. 

Looks like another desperate grab for currency by a government in decline.

but opinions vary... it's a crypto currency backed by a government and by a hard asset, so what could possibly go wrong?  8) 8) 8)

JR

PS: South Korea may be modifying their position on crypto currency, too big to ignore.
 
JohnRoberts said:
Then who will accept this? Some speculate they can pay western oil companies in "petros"  ::). If oil companies could expect to exchange them for oil, they would barter oil for what they are already owed.

China, Russia. Ha ha.

JohnRoberts said:
This will be an interesting economic experiment to watch as the Venezuela public has little choice but to accept "petros" as pay (most in venezuela work for the government because there is so little private sector business). 

Which is their business. They seem to like having Maduro in charge instead of some US installed scumbag like in Honduras (Thanks Obama!). Who can blame them? Oh, they're socialists, btw.

JohnRoberts said:
Looks like another desperate grab for currency by a government in decline.

LMAORF.... ;D

As opposed to another desperate grab for other people's oil by your government in decline ?

 
Here we go: Bananacoins...

They are ecofriendly and 'protected' by the price of 1kg of organic bananas harvested in Laos and for sale mainly in China. Well, this is one example of 'coins' working pretty much like a 'future'. I read that the coins can be 'cashed in' in real bananas -- shipment excluded though.
 
tands said:
China, Russia. Ha ha.
Russia is already considering a crypto ruble, so maybe they'll swap crypto rubles for petros.  ::) Russia is already a major lender to Venezuela. Little known most of Russia's economic strength comes from energy exports (and expression of military force around the world, especially where we have yielded.)

China has been trying to contract oil purchases with yuan, to weaken the US dollar as the world reserve currency.
Which is their business. They seem to like having Maduro in charge instead of some US installed scumbag like in Honduras (Thanks Obama!). Who can blame them? Oh, they're socialists, btw.
Seriously? Literally millions have voted with their feet and escaped the country first under Chavez and now under Maduro. It has gotten so bad recently that neighboring countries (like colombia) have tightened their border restrictions to reduce the flow of people desperate for food, medicine, and sundry necessities we take for granted. Venezuela used to be one of the wealthiest SA countries, now they are literally starving, despite massive oil reserves.
LMAORF.... ;D

As opposed to another desperate grab for other people's oil by your government in decline ?
That claim is not supported by fact or history. We did not take Iraq's oil, that is exactly what ISIS did. They stole both Syrian and Iraqi oil to sell for operating funds. We are pumping even more US (shale) oil and exporting our surplus, making it difficult for OPEC to keep prices high, while Venezuela's broken oil industry isn't even pumping their full OPEC allotment so unintentionally helping OPEC with their production shortfall . 

Whether we are in decline is arguable, but mismanagement over the last several years has cost us. Hopefully we are moving in a better direction now but I don't expect much support for that viewpoint from the many detractors that come with the territory.   

JR
 
I don't believe anything you say JR. Not a word.

It's the same old propaganda the US has been spewing for the last 15 years since they failed their coup attempt. The worst thing is that you talk like you care about the people there.

The failed coup in Venezuela was closely tied to senior officials in the US government, The Observer has established. They have long histories in the 'dirty wars' of the 1980s, and links to death squads working in Central America at that time.

Washington's involvement in the turbulent events that briefly removed left-wing leader Hugo Chavez from power last weekend resurrects fears about US ambitions in the hemisphere.

It also also deepens doubts about policy in the region being made by appointees to the Bush administration, all of whom owe their careers to serving in the dirty wars under President Reagan.

One of them, Elliot Abrams, who gave a nod to the attempted Venezuelan coup, has a conviction for misleading Congress over the infamous Iran-Contra affair.

The Bush administration has tried to distance itself from the coup. It immediately endorsed the new government under businessman Pedro Carmona. But the coup was sent dramatically into reverse after 48 hours.

Now officials at the Organisation of American States and other diplomatic sources, talking to The Observer, assert that the US administration was not only aware the coup was about to take place, but had sanctioned it, presuming it to be destined for success.

The visits by Venezuelans plotting a coup, including Carmona himself, began, say sources, 'several months ago', and continued until weeks before the putsch last weekend. The visitors were received at the White House by the man President George Bush tasked to be his key policy-maker for Latin America, Otto Reich.

Reich is a right-wing Cuban-American who, under Reagan, ran the Office for Public Diplomacy. It reported in theory to the State Department, but Reich was shown by congressional investigations to report directly to Reagan's National Security Aide, Colonel Oliver North, in the White House.

North was convicted and shamed for his role in Iran-Contra, whereby arms bought by busting US sanctions on Iran were sold to the Contra guerrillas and death squads, in revolt against the Marxist government in Nicaragua.

Reich also has close ties to Venezuela, having been made ambassador to Caracas in 1986. His appointment was contested both by Democrats in Washington and political leaders in the Latin American country. The objections were overridden as Venezuela sought access to the US oil market.

Reich is said by OAS sources to have had 'a number of meetings with Carmona and other leaders of the coup' over several months. The coup was discussed in some detail, right down to its timing and chances of success, which were deemed to be excellent.

On the day Carmona claimed power, Reich summoned ambassadors from Latin America and the Caribbean to his office. He said the removal of Chavez was not a rupture of democra tic rule, as he had resigned and was 'responsible for his fate'. He said the US would support the Carmona government.

But the crucial figure around the coup was Abrams, who operates in the White House as senior director of the National Security Council for 'democracy, human rights and international opera tions'. He was a leading theoretician of the school known as 'Hemispherism', which put a priority on combating Marxism in the Americas.

It led to the coup in Chile in 1973, and the sponsorship of regimes and death squads that followed it in Argentina, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and elsewhere. During the Contras' rampage in Nicaragua, he worked directly to North.

Congressional investigations found Abrams had harvested illegal funding for the rebellion. Convicted for withholding information from the inquiry, he was pardoned by George Bush senior.

A third member of the Latin American triangle in US policy-making is John Negroponte, now ambassador to the United Nations. He was Reagan's ambassador to Honduras from 1981 to 1985 when a US-trained death squad, Battalion 3-16, tortured and murdered scores of activists. A diplomatic source said Negroponte had been 'informed that there might be some movement in Venezuela on Chavez' at the beginning of the year.

More than 100 people died in events before and after the coup. In Caracas on Friday a military judge confined five high-ranking officers to indefinite house arrest pending formal charges of rebellion.

Chavez's chief ideologue - Guillermo Garcia Ponce, director of the Revolutionary Political Command - said dissident generals, local media and anti-Chavez groups in the US had plotted the president's removal.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/apr/21/usa.venezuela

The Venezuelan coup d'état attempt of 2002 was a failed coup d'état on 11 April 2002 that saw President Hugo Chávez ousted from office for 47 hours before being restored to power. Chávez, who had been elected in 2000, was aided in his return to power by actions from military loyalists and support from the country's poor.

...

Pro-Chávez uprising and restoration
Chavista loyalists gathered outside of Miraflores Palace after hearing that Chávez had not resigned the presidency.

Prompted by the spreading news that Chávez had not resigned, Carmona's installation as President generated an uprising by Bolivarian Circles in support of Chávez that was suppressed by the Metropolitan Police. It also led to a demonstration outside the Presidential Palace by hundreds of thousands of people. According to one commentator, "it was the poor from the peripheral barrios who returned Chávez to power." With the palace surrounded by protestors, and with several hundred paratroopers still ensconced beneath the palace, their commander, José Baduel, telephoned Carmona to tell him that he too was as much a hostage as Chávez was, and gave him an ultimatum that he return Chávez alive within 24 hours.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt


 
Uh huh, you're the one started crying about Venezuela. Some more.  ::)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQUXuQ6Zd9w
 
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