Unplanned population growth

BBC.

Mr Macron said that Europe would be dealing with migration from Africa for decades due to what he called the fundamental problem of unplanned population growth in Africa.

He has been criticised for saying the same thing in the past.

This is a first!  Never heard anyone name it before!  Someone needs to name it in Central America too.

Until we can truthfully describe a problem, we shall never find the solution.

DaveP

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

I will resist posting my first thought because it is probably indelicate.

This will resolve itself. They always do.

JR

Is this kind of discussion/assertion really necessary here ?

I'm shocked... to me it sound like goldwin point is already the discussion start.
I don't want to be banned, I like this place to much, so I will just stick a reminder to "my" president as OP that quote him

Liberté-Egalité-Fraternité

best
Zam

Yes, a growing and unchecked world population seems to be "the elephant in the room" for most politicians worldwide (reducing population is even a partial solution to GW/GCC - fewer people means less CO2 emissions - but just about no one ever mentions that), but there are those who have pointed it out before - I think it was a bit of a more "open" topic for discussion many decades ago:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb

It's well known that people in very poor areas have lots of children, in hopes that SOME of them will live into adulthood. As living standards rise, families have fewer children because they have good confidence they'll all live to adulthood.

According to Peter Diamandis and Steven Pinker (in their recent books and TED talks), modern technologies and societies are bringing substantial numbers of the poorest out of poverty, helping to reduce the rate of population increase.

zamproject said:

Is this kind of discussion/assertion really necessary here ?

I'm shocked... to me it sound like goldwin point is already the discussion start.

Click to expand...

You mean Godwin's Law, as in this Mike Godwin? (warning for any sensitive readers, this tweet contains an obscenity)
https://twitter.com/sfmnemonic/status/896884949634232320?lang=en

benb said:

https://twitter.com/sfmnemonic/status/896884949634232320?lang=en

Click to expand...

Is it just me or are most tweets incomprehensible? They mostly sound like a few kids in the playground.

Cbheers

Ian

I'm with you Ian, didn't understand a word of it!

I also don't understand what Zamproject is so upset about.  I just reported what Macron said to an African audience, I don't think any of them were upset.

DaveP

Because he´s upset because of the blaming of the problems on people from the 3rd world, instead of the first world taking responsibility for the destruction of this planet (who´s eating all that meat, using up all that fossils and other resources, sending all the toxic waste to poor countries without environmental regulation, honestly? Somalians? Venezuelans?  What if the thirld world would take on out living/wasting standards, or are they not entitled to it? Or is it we, who have to start quitting our desastrous living style?).

Macron is just another big money "crony", like JR calls them. His mention of immigration is because France is under fire from hardcore right wing mentality and he wants to harvest some of it. My opinion.

Whatever the causes are, I am irred when I hear journalists and experts say that population in Africa is gonna be 5 billion by 2040, hence immigration will increase commensurately, as if it was inevitable!
I would have no issue with that if this population stayed in Africa, but it can't be, because Africa cannot sustain a 5Gig population; I've heard "specialists" say that Africa can sustain such a population, because it has enough natural resources, but it's not true - at least it won't be true by 2040. What Africa misses the most is jobs and access to water; the way things are going, the increase in population won't improve these issues, so emigration will increase.
If Africa managed its demographics by balancing its population with its resources, there would be no problem.
I am very much in favour of sheltering people that are pushed out of their country by war, drought or any other major cause, but I don't accept a continent that keeps knowingly growing above its capabilities, thus increasing these issues, and relying on others to absorb their surplus.
Birth control is a major issue; it is not accepted by mollahs, ulemas, ayatollahs, whatever... It is also considered politically incorrect in many western countries to call into question the inalienable right of populations to make as many children as they want; it is probable that the sad Chinese example is the cause of this rejection.
Humanity is growing on Earth as cancer on a patient - i.e. till the patient dies; wouldn't it be time to come to our senses?

L´Andratté said:

Because he´s upset because of the blaming of the problems on people from the 3rd world, instead of the first world taking responsibility for the destruction of this planet (who´s eating all that meat, using up all that fossils and other resources, sending all the toxic waste to poor countries without environmental regulation, honestly?

Click to expand...

These are two different subjects, correlated certainly, but still different in that they call for different remedies. It is a common tactic not to address a problem under the pretext that there are more urgent or more serious ones. Us westerners being pigs does not absolve the African people of their responsibilities.

What if the thirld world would take on out living/wasting standards,

Click to expand...

We already know the answer, just look at China and India.

or are they not entitled to it?

Click to expand...

A critical analysis of the situation would confirm they are not; however, the aspirations of people have nothing to do with pragmatism.

Or is it we, who have to start quitting our desastrous living style?).

Click to expand...

I think we should, but will it solve the particular subject of immigration? It would probably solve some other issues, so it's probably worth doing.

His mention of immigration is because France is under fire from hardcore right wing mentality and he wants to harvest some of it.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure he wants to "harvest"... I'd rather think he's trying to dodge the bullet. Not only France is under right wing pressure; just about any European country that's under immigration stress is. Could there be a cause-and-effect relationship?

hello

L´Andratté said:

Because he´s upset because of the blaming of the problems on people from the 3rd world, instead of the first world taking responsibility for the destruction of this planet (who´s eating all that meat, using up all that fossils and other resources, sending all the toxic waste to poor countries without environmental regulation, honestly? Somalians? Venezuelans?  What if the thirld world would take on out living/wasting standards, or are they not entitled to it? Or is it we, who have to start quitting our desastrous living style?).

Macron is just another big money "crony", like JR calls them. His mention of immigration is because France is under fire from hardcore right wing mentality and he wants to harvest some of it. My opinion.

Click to expand...

Yes that's part of my upset  :-\

Best
Zam

Because he´s upset because of the blaming of the problems on people from the 3rd world, instead of the first world taking responsibility for the destruction of this planet (who´s eating all that meat, using up all that fossils and other resources, sending all the toxic waste to poor countries without environmental regulation, honestly?

Click to expand...

Much as I admire you as a person, I can't accept this unbalanced guilt trip.

As well as the demerits you mentioned and with the resources we have used up, we have also developed water technology for Africa, roads, electricity, sewage treatment systems, modern farming, mobile phones, solar panels and all the aspects of modern life that Africans are happy use.  These have enabled the population to expand to the unstable levels that we have today.  Was this sensible?  Probably not in hindsight.

The guilt over what our ancestors did two centuries ago is misplaced in our generation, we have done our best to help  them develop their countries.  Unfortunately, their endemic corruption problems have robbed them of a social security system that would have taken away the need to have so many children.  The money for that has ended up in secret Swiss bank accounts.  President Mobuto sesi seko of Zaire (Congo) syphoned off around two billion dollars to Switzerland I believe.

In other third world countries, the Catholic doctrine on birth control is responsible for unsustainable and unstable populations.  They have encouraged large families, but neglected the jobs and social security provision that is necessary to sustain these populations.  Exporting surplus populations to countries that have already achieved equilibrium will no longer be an option.

DaveP

Hi Dave

DaveP said:

The guilt over what our ancestors did two centuries ago is misplaced in our generation, we have done our best to help  them develop their countries.

Click to expand...

That's the common argument and I guess the under laying unreconcilable philosophy.
I think the exact opposite, we still have our "way of life" sustained over third world dead body

I can agree that some of us do there best.
But I find it to easy to clam our great many-century-democratic-civilisation, and as soon as there is blood on our hands it's no longer our business after one generation...

Our hands still bloody today, I understand why it's not possible to handle this for most western citizens, I mean that thought hurt to much, as the contradiction and the real consequence if all of us decide in short time range to do our duty as human being.

As usual fault is always at the other side, human reflex.

Best
Zam

PS: Dave, IIRC you are GB living in France, you are by definition an immigrant here, can I ask why you choose to leave your country to another, no offense I just want to draw perspective and if it's too personal to respond I'll understand it.

This topic at this forum light me this...

History is like an LCR electric system
some need big capacitor to memorize knowledge
some need big resistor to limit the knowledge
some need big inductor...
Whatever filter topology you use, voltage and current always find a path to somewhere

best
Zam

There's massive educational differences. Half of these countries can nearly be considered almost entirely uncivilized, when compared to developed nations. With no education > add corrupt government. Then add religion. Then add military violence and you end up with leaders like Duterte.

Sad to say but I hear stories daily how these people are still using regularly, mass rape > violence/machete killings against each other. Developed nations sending aid to these countries for 50 years. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.

Their Governments and the populations themselves can make choices, and are to blame for how and what they produce.

Birth rates are kind of low in many places no?....but not Africa?

desol said:

Developed nations sending aid to these countries for 50 years. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.

Click to expand...

If "developed" nations share back with the right balance what we take out from these countries, no aid will be needed from us.
I'm not aware that horses need help to find water... as I'm not aware that we talk about horses...

Fore sure there is a lot to say about how leaders handle these countries, as how we "help" them.
In France we have a bomb waiting to explode (maybe...) about weapons we feed during Rwanda genocide.

It's all grey, and unfortunately our "higher" education don't prevent us from dramatic mistakes

Best
Zam

zamproject said:

If "developed" nations share back with the right balance what we take out from these countries, no aid will be needed from us.
I'm not aware that horses need help to find water... as I'm not aware that we talk about horses...

Click to expand...

It is an old idiom: https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/you+can+lead+a+horse+to+water%2C+but+you+can%27t+make+it+drink

I don't believe all of these problems exist because of economic disadvantage, although I know it is a significant factor. I think there is a lot more to the picture. Customs, cultural beliefs, religious beliefs,  education level, government corruption, etc. These things make a huge difference in how people live, adapt and make choices.

I've stopped hating myself because I was born in North America.

@DaveP
Hey Dave, I´m no zealot or sjw, Im not interested to talk against , just with you (or anyone).
So, I don´t take anything personal and hope noone else will my ramblings. I may get passionate, but I´m not a believer in spite and righteousness.

I´m not talking about guilt, I´m not into that, even with my german heritage, but I´m into responsibility and I was talking about cause and effect.

The example of Congo you mention is actually very interesting.
It was a belgian colony, more exactly it was self acclaimed personal property of the belgian king Leopold II, under whose rule, there were unbelievable atrocities happening, with probably a million africans dead within a couple of years, not counting those who got a leg cut off, the punishment for minor offenses.
After having thorougly destroyed everything in ways of original culture and civilisation (yes, Congo has a long history), the country was left into independence. Of course the country´s  resources were still to be solely harvested by european industries (much cheaper than colonialism).
Then the Congo democratically elected  Lumumba as their president, who wanted to bring prosperity and peace to Congo and wanted the congolese resources belonging to the congolese people.
Well end of the storie was he tripped and fell out of a CIA plane over the desert and it was found out he must have been  an evil communist. Then there was a certain Mobuto, guess who helped him into his place?
Very good for business (please check the facts!).
Those africans just don´t know how act civilized, no? Europeans should come and tell them how to act civilzed?
I don´t think so.
Well that´s my side of the coin, feel free to teach me the other.

EDIT: too tired to remake all that writing mistakes, excuse my poor spelling!

@Abbey
I don´t think those are two different problems, overpopulation is actually better described as the lack of resources. Which get mostly used up by a small minority on this planet, that´s what I´m talking about.
Like one american (just for examle) uses up as much resources like an indian village (ballpark), with our consumerism habits Europe and North America are probably the most overpopulated 

Of course that´s a bit polemic. While I did not say humans are pigs, I do think they are opportunistic monkeys (with illusions of grandeur), and like any animal population will grow to the possible max. And then die. I don´t see a way around but I hope.
There´s no organisation, entity or structure (short of a plague) powerful enough to enforce slowing of growth and I´m not sure I want one to be there...

L´Andratté said:

Hey Dave, I´m no zealot or sjw, Im not interested to talk against , just with you (or anyone).
So, I don´t take anything personal and hope noone else will my ramblings. I may get passionate, but I´m not a believer in spite and righteousness.

I´m not talking about guilt, I´m not into that, even with my german heritage, but I´m into responsibility and I was talking about cause and effect.

The example of Congo you mention is actually very interesting.
It was a belgian colony, more exactly it was personal property of the belgian king Leopold II, under whose rule, there were unbelievable atrocities happening, with probably a million africans dead within a couple of years, not counting those who got a leg cut off, the punishment for minor offenses.
After having thorougly destroyed everything in ways of original culture and civilisation (yes, Congo has a long history), the country was left into independence. Of course the country´s  resources were still to be solely harvested by european industries.
Then the Congo democratically elected  Lumumba as their president, who wanted to bring prosperity and peace to Congo and wanted the congolese resources belonging to the congolese people.
Well end of the storie was he tripped and fell out of a CIA plane over the desert and it was found out he must have been  a communist. Then there was a certain Mobuto, guess who helped him into his place?
Those africans just don´t know how act civilized, no? Europeans should come and tell them how to act civilzed? I don´t think so.
Well that´s my side of the coin, feel free to teach me the other.

Click to expand...

What you describe is (mostly) undisputed. How does it relate to the fact that Africa is "producing" more human beings than it is capable of sustaining? As I wrote earlier, these are two different problems, rather loosely related. IMO, "we" are responsible for the spoilage of Africa's resources, Africans are responsible for the overpopulation.
I think that many Europeans really want to stop the exploitation of Africa in favor of more balanced and equitable exchanges.
But that will not be enough to stem the influx of migrants that results in majority from the unbalance between the increase in population and the available resources.

desol said:

It is an old idiom: https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/you+can+lead+a+horse+to+water%2C+but+you+can%27t+make+it+drink

Click to expand...

yes I know, I just find the analogy questionable in this discussion, reflecting all unconscious reflex we may have but I know you don't do it on purpose, no issue. I shocked myself writing Goldwin in place of Godwin previously...

desol said:

I don't believe all of these problems exist because of economic disadvantage, although I know it is a significant factor. I think there is a lot more to the picture. Customs, cultural beliefs, religious beliefs,  education level, government corruption, etc. These things make a huge difference in how people live, adapt and make choices.

I've stopped hating myself because I was born in North America.

Click to expand...

I don't necessary use the "share" word on economic level only, I totally agree, the picture is big, and it's impossible to see the whole in a single shoot/single time (and space)

Best
Zam