fazer said:
The podcast and book discuss that in 10 years , self driving trucks will do away with 2/3rds of 3 1/2 million jobs.
That is an easy prediction... I have been making it right here for years.
The idea of 2 million truck drivers becoming programmers is very unlikely.
Indeed, but most (many) are self-employed independent contractors so already have a business mindset. I have been saying this for years we need to empower small (micro) business formation, and technology is helping that. I started my first business back in the 70's and we have better tools now that didn't exist, or weren't affordable back then.
Ironically perhaps truck drivers are in short supply right now, but I agree a bad long term bet.
As far as gig economy goes , plumbers would be a better choice.
There will always be work for tradesmen. There is an attempt to elevate the status of attending trade schools to learn merchantable skills, instead of mortgaging your future with huge student loans to attend college only to be underemployed (while engineering college degrees apparently are still rewarded with employment). I may have some bias as a college dropout. :
But AI. Will be able to even threaten programming.
It will change programming but unlikely to eliminate it, just like higher level languages reduce the rote work of coding (while I still prefer machine language).
And things like stock analysts are completely being replaced with AI already at investment banks.
AI still must be programmed and some market volatility is attributed to group think(?) of similarly programmed AI investment programs, all making the same trading decisions at the same time.
So if you can program it may work in the short term but how many real jobs are going to follow the industrial revolution which is used as a model for most conservative arguments.
Do not expect to hold any one job for a lifetime, that window closed some time ago. We need to learn how to learn and be adaptable to continue creating value from our work efforts.
I agree the disincentive of free sh.. is there and god knows Saudi Arabia is a failed state when people are paid to do nothing. So those are arguments against.
Paid to not overthrow the regime... Saudi money (and religious extremism) has fueled a lot of bad behavior in the world. They are attempting to turn that ship, but it won't be quick or easy.
Not to veer to current events but ironic that Turkey is twisting the screws with evidence they apparently collected surreptitiously from the Saudi embassy. Trying to embarrass the Saudis over a journalist they apparently killed, while Turkey is a world leader for number of journalists in jail (along with Egypt and China).
Let’s see how it works when million of jobs disappear over night in the coming years.
Indeed we (you guys) will see. Universal income looks attractive to billionaires who already have their pile of money, because it allows the consumers to keep buying their poop. This too has been tried, but no successful serious experiments last time I checked a while back.
JR
