JohnRoberts

Venezuela heating up
« on: January 25, 2019, 01:26:33 PM »
For some actual news... ::)..  Venezuela has been in economic decline for years (decades) but it may be coming to a head.

The US and about a half dozen nations in the region have recognized the self described opposition leader (a freshman legislator in the assembly) as the interim leader of Venezuela (until a real election can be held). The last election was considered a sham. Even Jimmy Carter who never saw an election he didn't like, came out against this one. 8)

But before we open up champagne, the top military generals are still voicing support for Maduro. This is no surprise because Maduro has Cuban security forces embedded watching military leaders weeding out possible sympathizers.

The bottom line will be public reaction. If enough of the public come out in support of the new government the generals may back down, but there have already been protestors killed and hundreds arrested.

So IMO this is a still developing news story worth paying attention to.

JR

PS: Russia and China have loaned $Billions to Maduro regime, but only Cuba seems to have military (advisers?) present in the country. 
John Roberts
http://circularscience.com
Tune it, or don't play it...


dmp

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2019, 03:33:19 PM »
I don't know much about the country or the validity of Maduro but this story seems really strange. 

For some actual news... ::)..  Venezuela has been in economic decline for years (decades) but it may be coming to a head.

The US and about a half dozen nations in the region have recognized the self described opposition leader (a freshman legislator in the assembly) as the interim leader of Venezuela (until a real election can be held). The last election was considered a sham. Even Jimmy Carter who never saw an election he didn't like, came out against this one. 8)
There are a lot of countries that hold sham elections or no elections at all (Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc). Why are the developed nations going for regime change in Venezuela?
The criticism seems to think it is about controlling / stealing the country's oil resources - but the developed world is much less dependent on oil reserves than 10-20 yrs ago.
Quote
But before we open up champagne, the top military generals are still voicing support for Maduro. This is no surprise because Maduro has Cuban security forces embedded watching military leaders weeding out possible sympathizers.

The bottom line will be public reaction. If enough of the public come out in support of the new government the generals may back down, but there have already been protestors killed and hundreds arrested.

So IMO this is a still developing news story worth paying attention to.

JR

PS: Russia and China have loaned $Billions to Maduro regime, but only Cuba seems to have military (advisers?) present in the country. 

I read the UK denied a withdrawal of 1.2 billion of gold to Maduro.
The thought that comes to mind is you break it you own it. Hopefully things there get better and not worse.


12afael

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2019, 05:34:58 PM »
I have some musicians friend in Venezuela and they have been living very dificult times. They are in the same situation Chile was before Pinochet.

I hope they can solve the situation pacifically.
heavy metal is the law!!!

JohnRoberts

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2019, 06:40:20 PM »
I have some musicians friend in Venezuela and they have been living very dificult times. They are in the same situation Chile was before Pinochet.

I hope they can solve the situation pacifically.
It seems like another typical political inkblot test (the left/right reaction).

I have been saying right here for a long time that Venezuela is a humanitarian crisis and the people who haven't left yet are in dire straights.

I sure hope it ends peaceably but Maduro does not strike me as one to walk away quietly without a fight. Maybe that is why he was trying to access his country's gold.

Maduro is in debt to Russia and China for many billions. Russia has recently sent a couple hundred military contractors there for Maduro's personal security (nice guys), but perhaps more significantly Russia has taken title to major oil fields in Venezuela (per Wash Post) so part of the nation's oil wealth may be claimed by Russia.

China is not likely to inject itself into the local situation (IMO).

 [edit-]  but China is happy to work with Russia with a wink and nod if they can weaken or embarrass the US  [/edit]

My sense is that President Trump is not looking for another military adventure (we are getting close to a negotiated peace with Taliban in Afghanistan, who saw that coming?) but responding to the situation on the ground there in Venezuela that has been in free fall for years, with the assembly leader recently declaring himself interim leader, until a valid election can be held (per their constitution). A number of other countries in the region have already recognized the new leader, but this will be no cake walk, with Cuban and Russian security forces in country, not to mention a military that so far have stayed with Maduro.

The bottom line in such situations (failing dictatorships) the military remain faithful as long as they are getting fed and paid. 

The US needs to tread lightly since we have been blamed for everything bad in Venezuela since Chavez.

Maduro has some powerful friends, (like Russia who likes to buy energy assets on the cheap. Citgo assets in the US have been pledged against russian (Rosnoft) debt but good luck collecting those from the US. More recently oil and gas leases.

I can predict that this will be messy and expect more public violence (not from the US military). That interim leader could use some personal security too.

Interesting times...  beware the spin vortex coming from the swamp..

JR
« Last Edit: January 29, 2019, 09:40:46 PM by JohnRoberts »
John Roberts
http://circularscience.com
Tune it, or don't play it...

scott2000

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2019, 08:19:43 PM »
I don't know much about the country or the validity of Maduro but this story seems really strange. 


I was surprised to hear about it (interim President) too. But, the many Venezuelans I've talked to personally, can vouch for the conditions there..... It's ridiculous..  unless you're a big fan of not needing animal control around....

There are many Venezuelans here....

Last I heard (maybe a few months or so since I asked) , Maduro had a lot of followers there so, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out....
« Last Edit: January 29, 2019, 09:11:49 PM by scott2000 »

JohnRoberts

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2019, 11:18:38 PM »
I don't know much about the country or the validity of Maduro but this story seems really strange. 
There are a lot of countries that hold sham elections or no elections at all (Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc). Why are the developed nations going for regime change in Venezuela?
They have a constitution, and the leader of the assembly by law is the authorized leader.  Maduro is the one breaking his own nation's laws.
Quote
The criticism seems to think it is about controlling / stealing the country's oil resources - but the developed world is much less dependent on oil reserves than 10-20 yrs ago.
The heavy (high sulphur) crude that they export is desirable for refineries in the US gulf region engineered to refine that type of crude, specifically to make diesel and home heating oil (I think).  We have increased our oil output more than Venezuela pumps so he needs to sell it to us, more than we need to buy it from him.  That said Venezuela has vast oil reserves in the ground that should help improve the life of the citizens, again .
Quote
I read the UK denied a withdrawal of 1.2 billion of gold to Maduro.
The thought that comes to mind is you break it you own it. Hopefully things there get better and not worse.
I like the Powell reference, but the chavistas broke Venezuela by nationalizing entire industries then sucking out any wealth and running those industries into the ground without maintenance or improvements.

The inflation rate for Venezuela at the end of 2018 was 80,000% and that was before the sierra hit the fan, must be worse now.

They are the poster boy for an out of control dictatorship killing the golden goose. Venezuela was one of the richest countries in South America before Chavez broke it. Maduro was his hand picked replacement and he kept up the bad work.

JR
John Roberts
http://circularscience.com
Tune it, or don't play it...

scott2000

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2019, 02:40:50 PM »
I just spoke with a girl from there and she went against what I heard about Maduro having a lot of support. She said the military supports him but the population doesn't.....

Interesting.. She knows who I talked to before, a friend's husband, and said no way. And she did tell me when I asked about the animals that  she had to barter her dog to get some shampoo and stuff, so the other could eat :o....

crazy.......

She said she'd move back without a doubt if things improved there.... It's pretty beautiful there.....They have every topology and climate in one place..... She was nice and said FL is nice though....lol

JohnRoberts

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2019, 02:56:52 PM »
I just spoke with a girl from there and she went against what I heard about Maduro having a lot of support. She said the military supports him but the population doesn't.....
The military will support him as long as he can keep feeding and paying them. The new US oil sanction will cut off $Bs of US dollar cash flow he desperately needs to keep the military happy.  Russia and China both would like to see him stay in power to exert influence in the region and weaken the US, we'll see if either is willing to fund him further as his economy spirals in.

The population has been voting with their feet for years. Another reason the nearby nations in the region oppose him, they have to absorb the economic hardship refugees. Venezuela could be a wealthy nation again. I wonder if Russian gets to keep those oil fields they bought at fire sale prices.

JR
Quote
Interesting.. She knows who I talked to before, a friend's husband, and said no way. And she did tell me when I asked about the animals that  she had to barter her dog to get some shampoo and stuff, so the other could eat :o....

crazy.......

She said she'd move back without a doubt if things improved there.... It's pretty beautiful there.....They have every topology and climate in one place..... She was nice and said FL is nice though....lol
John Roberts
http://circularscience.com
Tune it, or don't play it...

JohnRoberts

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2019, 12:54:08 PM »

The military will support him as long as he can keep feeding and paying them.

[edit] Just read that Maduro arrested a senior military leader for trying to raise support with other military officers for the new government, despite Cuban watchdogs everywhere. Reportedly this general hasn't been seen or heard from since.  [/edit]

The new US oil sanction will cut off $Bs of US dollar cash flow he desperately needs to keep the military happy.  Russia and China both would like to see him stay in power to exert influence in the region and weaken the US, we'll see if either is willing to fund him further as his economy spirals in.

The population has been voting with their feet for years. Another reason the nearby nations in the region oppose him, they have to absorb the economic hardship refugees. Venezuela could be a wealthy nation again. I wonder if Russian gets to keep those oil fields they bought at fire sale prices.

JR
John Roberts
http://circularscience.com
Tune it, or don't play it...

 

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