JohnRoberts

Venezuela heating up
« on: January 25, 2019, 01:26:33 PM »
For some actual news... ::)..  Venezuela has been in economic decline for years (decades) but it may be coming to a head.

The US and about a half dozen nations in the region have recognized the self described opposition leader (a freshman legislator in the assembly) as the interim leader of Venezuela (until a real election can be held). The last election was considered a sham. Even Jimmy Carter who never saw an election he didn't like, came out against this one. 8)

But before we open up champagne, the top military generals are still voicing support for Maduro. This is no surprise because Maduro has Cuban security forces embedded watching military leaders weeding out possible sympathizers.

The bottom line will be public reaction. If enough of the public come out in support of the new government the generals may back down, but there have already been protestors killed and hundreds arrested.

So IMO this is a still developing news story worth paying attention to.

JR

PS: Russia and China have loaned $Billions to Maduro regime, but only Cuba seems to have military (advisers?) present in the country. 
John Roberts
http://circularscience.com
Tune it, or don't play it...


dmp

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2019, 03:33:19 PM »
I don't know much about the country or the validity of Maduro but this story seems really strange. 

For some actual news... ::)..  Venezuela has been in economic decline for years (decades) but it may be coming to a head.

The US and about a half dozen nations in the region have recognized the self described opposition leader (a freshman legislator in the assembly) as the interim leader of Venezuela (until a real election can be held). The last election was considered a sham. Even Jimmy Carter who never saw an election he didn't like, came out against this one. 8)
There are a lot of countries that hold sham elections or no elections at all (Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc). Why are the developed nations going for regime change in Venezuela?
The criticism seems to think it is about controlling / stealing the country's oil resources - but the developed world is much less dependent on oil reserves than 10-20 yrs ago.
Quote
But before we open up champagne, the top military generals are still voicing support for Maduro. This is no surprise because Maduro has Cuban security forces embedded watching military leaders weeding out possible sympathizers.

The bottom line will be public reaction. If enough of the public come out in support of the new government the generals may back down, but there have already been protestors killed and hundreds arrested.

So IMO this is a still developing news story worth paying attention to.

JR

PS: Russia and China have loaned $Billions to Maduro regime, but only Cuba seems to have military (advisers?) present in the country. 

I read the UK denied a withdrawal of 1.2 billion of gold to Maduro.
The thought that comes to mind is you break it you own it. Hopefully things there get better and not worse.


12afael

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2019, 05:34:58 PM »
I have some musicians friend in Venezuela and they have been living very dificult times. They are in the same situation Chile was before Pinochet.

I hope they can solve the situation pacifically.
heavy metal is the law!!!

JohnRoberts

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2019, 06:40:20 PM »
I have some musicians friend in Venezuela and they have been living very dificult times. They are in the same situation Chile was before Pinochet.

I hope they can solve the situation pacifically.
It seems like another typical political inkblot test (the left/right reaction).

I have been saying right here for a long time that Venezuela is a humanitarian crisis and the people who haven't left yet are in dire straights.

I sure hope it ends peaceably but Maduro does not strike me as one to walk away quietly without a fight. Maybe that is why he was trying to access his country's gold.

Maduro is in debt to Russia and China for many billions. Russia has recently sent a couple hundred military contractors there for Maduro's personal security (nice guys), but perhaps more significantly Russia has taken title to major oil fields in Venezuela (per Wash Post) so part of the nation's oil wealth may be claimed by Russia.

China is not likely to inject itself into the local situation (IMO).

 [edit-]  but China is happy to work with Russia with a wink and nod if they can weaken or embarrass the US  [/edit]

My sense is that President Trump is not looking for another military adventure (we are getting close to a negotiated peace with Taliban in Afghanistan, who saw that coming?) but responding to the situation on the ground there in Venezuela that has been in free fall for years, with the assembly leader recently declaring himself interim leader, until a valid election can be held (per their constitution). A number of other countries in the region have already recognized the new leader, but this will be no cake walk, with Cuban and Russian security forces in country, not to mention a military that so far have stayed with Maduro.

The bottom line in such situations (failing dictatorships) the military remain faithful as long as they are getting fed and paid. 

The US needs to tread lightly since we have been blamed for everything bad in Venezuela since Chavez.

Maduro has some powerful friends, (like Russia who likes to buy energy assets on the cheap. Citgo assets in the US have been pledged against russian (Rosnoft) debt but good luck collecting those from the US. More recently oil and gas leases.

I can predict that this will be messy and expect more public violence (not from the US military). That interim leader could use some personal security too.

Interesting times...  beware the spin vortex coming from the swamp..

JR
« Last Edit: January 29, 2019, 09:40:46 PM by JohnRoberts »
John Roberts
http://circularscience.com
Tune it, or don't play it...

scott2000

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2019, 08:19:43 PM »
I don't know much about the country or the validity of Maduro but this story seems really strange. 


I was surprised to hear about it (interim President) too. But, the many Venezuelans I've talked to personally, can vouch for the conditions there..... It's ridiculous..  unless you're a big fan of not needing animal control around....

There are many Venezuelans here....

Last I heard (maybe a few months or so since I asked) , Maduro had a lot of followers there so, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out....
« Last Edit: January 29, 2019, 09:11:49 PM by scott2000 »

JohnRoberts

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2019, 11:18:38 PM »
I don't know much about the country or the validity of Maduro but this story seems really strange. 
There are a lot of countries that hold sham elections or no elections at all (Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc). Why are the developed nations going for regime change in Venezuela?
They have a constitution, and the leader of the assembly by law is the authorized leader.  Maduro is the one breaking his own nation's laws.
Quote
The criticism seems to think it is about controlling / stealing the country's oil resources - but the developed world is much less dependent on oil reserves than 10-20 yrs ago.
The heavy (high sulphur) crude that they export is desirable for refineries in the US gulf region engineered to refine that type of crude, specifically to make diesel and home heating oil (I think).  We have increased our oil output more than Venezuela pumps so he needs to sell it to us, more than we need to buy it from him.  That said Venezuela has vast oil reserves in the ground that should help improve the life of the citizens, again .
Quote
I read the UK denied a withdrawal of 1.2 billion of gold to Maduro.
The thought that comes to mind is you break it you own it. Hopefully things there get better and not worse.
I like the Powell reference, but the chavistas broke Venezuela by nationalizing entire industries then sucking out any wealth and running those industries into the ground without maintenance or improvements.

The inflation rate for Venezuela at the end of 2018 was 80,000% and that was before the sierra hit the fan, must be worse now.

They are the poster boy for an out of control dictatorship killing the golden goose. Venezuela was one of the richest countries in South America before Chavez broke it. Maduro was his hand picked replacement and he kept up the bad work.

JR
John Roberts
http://circularscience.com
Tune it, or don't play it...

scott2000

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2019, 02:40:50 PM »
I just spoke with a girl from there and she went against what I heard about Maduro having a lot of support. She said the military supports him but the population doesn't.....

Interesting.. She knows who I talked to before, a friend's husband, and said no way. And she did tell me when I asked about the animals that  she had to barter her dog to get some shampoo and stuff, so the other could eat :o....

crazy.......

She said she'd move back without a doubt if things improved there.... It's pretty beautiful there.....They have every topology and climate in one place..... She was nice and said FL is nice though....lol

JohnRoberts

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2019, 02:56:52 PM »
I just spoke with a girl from there and she went against what I heard about Maduro having a lot of support. She said the military supports him but the population doesn't.....
The military will support him as long as he can keep feeding and paying them. The new US oil sanction will cut off $Bs of US dollar cash flow he desperately needs to keep the military happy.  Russia and China both would like to see him stay in power to exert influence in the region and weaken the US, we'll see if either is willing to fund him further as his economy spirals in.

The population has been voting with their feet for years. Another reason the nearby nations in the region oppose him, they have to absorb the economic hardship refugees. Venezuela could be a wealthy nation again. I wonder if Russian gets to keep those oil fields they bought at fire sale prices.

JR
Quote
Interesting.. She knows who I talked to before, a friend's husband, and said no way. And she did tell me when I asked about the animals that  she had to barter her dog to get some shampoo and stuff, so the other could eat :o....

crazy.......

She said she'd move back without a doubt if things improved there.... It's pretty beautiful there.....They have every topology and climate in one place..... She was nice and said FL is nice though....lol
John Roberts
http://circularscience.com
Tune it, or don't play it...

JohnRoberts

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2019, 12:54:08 PM »

The military will support him as long as he can keep feeding and paying them.

[edit] Just read that Maduro arrested a senior military leader for trying to raise support with other military officers for the new government, despite Cuban watchdogs everywhere. Reportedly this general hasn't been seen or heard from since.  [/edit]

The new US oil sanction will cut off $Bs of US dollar cash flow he desperately needs to keep the military happy.  Russia and China both would like to see him stay in power to exert influence in the region and weaken the US, we'll see if either is willing to fund him further as his economy spirals in.

The population has been voting with their feet for years. Another reason the nearby nations in the region oppose him, they have to absorb the economic hardship refugees. Venezuela could be a wealthy nation again. I wonder if Russian gets to keep those oil fields they bought at fire sale prices.

JR
John Roberts
http://circularscience.com
Tune it, or don't play it...

scott2000

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2019, 09:55:41 PM »
Just talking to my Brother in law today.....

He said Looks like Venezuela is like 90% without power......

Reports show 70.....

Their power infrastructure is hurting from lack of .....
Sux
« Last Edit: March 09, 2019, 09:59:59 PM by scott2000 »


JohnRoberts

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2019, 10:43:20 PM »
Just talking to my Brother in law today.....

He said Looks like Venezuela is like 90% without power......

Reports show 70.....

Their power infrastructure is hurting from lack of .....
Sux
Maduro is blaming the US for the power problems  but I don't think even he believes that.  Power outages there are not all that rare, but these days everything is under the news microscope.

==

I was pleasantly surprised to see the opposition leader (now also the country's self declared president) allowed to return into the country on a commercial airliner... he was threatened with arrest if he left and returned, but apparently allowed to leave and return unmolested.

----

A remarkable statistic is the amount of inflation that Venezuela is dealing with..  IMF is forecasting 10 million percent inflation next year...   At that rate of inflation I don't think there will be a next year for the Maduro administration (IMO).

He is very well entrenched and not going to give up quietly... He appears to be losing ground but I won't predict any timeline for a transition.

JR   
John Roberts
http://circularscience.com
Tune it, or don't play it...

Anthon

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #11 on: March 10, 2019, 09:35:35 AM »
I'm not an expert on situation in Venezuela, but I would take everything you hear from media with a huge grain of salt.
You get to hear only what you need to know.

I remember when USA and EU leaders supported the coup d'etat in Ukraine.  (I happen to be able to understand Russian and Ukrainian, following Ukrainian politics etc)
The current ukrainian 'pro-EU/USA freedom and democracy' president Poroshenko is 100 times worse then Yanukovich, supposedly pro-Russian president even though he wasn't. There is everything to indicated that the following elections will be the biggest scam ever, yet nobody talks about it.

The western leaders don't like Putin (who objectively brought the standards of living up, and nationalised of what was stolen by the previous regimes) , yet they liked Boris Yeltsin and Gorbachev - who should be trailed for treason, genocide and other crimes against humanity in my opinion.
The western powers removed Gaddafi, Hussein by sponsoring opposition and military intervention. Are Libya and Iraq better off now?

Now it's the same story with Venezuela, and frankly I don't believe a word they say anymore.

So I don't think it is as simple as 'removing the bad guy'. The world is more complicated than that.
If you think USA/EU cares about 'democracy, freedom and the people' of the foreign nations then you are just naive. Protecting your own interests is only thing that matters in geopolitics, and often it contradicts the well being of the population.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2019, 09:51:35 AM by Anthon »

scott2000

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #12 on: March 10, 2019, 11:30:57 AM »
I'm not an expert on situation in Venezuela, but I would take everything you hear from media with a huge grain of salt.
You get to hear only what you need to know.

I agree with the grain of salt. I've tried in my mind to discount what I have heard from some of the Venezuelan people I've spoken with but, unfortunately the media seems to support what they are telling me in regards to the conditions there.

To see the way they cry when saying goodbye to  their friends as they return back  to try to help family there is really strange and a different type of crying . Like they know there is a huge chance they won't ever see them again. It's pretty raw. Sad....


I remember when USA and EU leaders supported the coup d'etat in Ukraine.  (I happen to be able to understand Russian and Ukrainian, following Ukrainian politics etc)
The current ukrainian 'pro-EU/USA freedom and democracy' president Poroshenko is 100 times worse then Yanukovich, supposedly pro-Russian president even though he wasn't. There is everything to indicated that the following elections will be the biggest scam ever, yet nobody talks about it.


I haven't really followed anything but, I don't doubt crazy stuff happening.  Many Venezuelans are here where I live so, I guess that might be a reason I don't follow this or give it's story (which sounds similar to Venezuelan's elections now that I think about it) any attention.....

 .... Guess it's Confusing to me personally as to why this story deserves more attention or even validity than what's happening in Venezuela??



Now it's the same story with Venezuela, and frankly I don't believe a word they say anymore.

So I don't think it is as simple as 'removing the bad guy'. The world is more complicated than that.
If you think USA/EU cares about 'democracy, freedom and the people' of the foreign nations then you are just naive. Protecting your own interests is only thing that matters in geopolitics, and often it contradicts the well being of the population.

I'm not sure Venezuela's story is the same. Maybe in the generic sense of leadership/support??? I know we have our own issues here with leadership approval so, I can make the connection. Sounds a bit like a Nationalist position with the protect your own interests???




JohnRoberts

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #13 on: March 10, 2019, 12:31:30 PM »
I'm not an expert on situation in Venezuela, but I would take everything you hear from media with a huge grain of salt.
You get to hear only what you need to know.
What we need to know?
Quote
I remember when USA and EU leaders supported the coup d'etat in Ukraine.  (I happen to be able to understand Russian and Ukrainian, following Ukrainian politics etc)
The current ukrainian 'pro-EU/USA freedom and democracy' president Poroshenko is 100 times worse then Yanukovich, supposedly pro-Russian president even though he wasn't. There is everything to indicated that the following elections will be the biggest scam ever, yet nobody talks about it.
From a distance it seems pretty obvious what is going on.
Quote
The western leaders don't like Putin (who objectively brought the standards of living up, and nationalised of what was stolen by the previous regimes) , yet they liked Boris Yeltsin and Gorbachev - who should be trailed for treason, genocide and other crimes against humanity in my opinion.
Putin seems pretty transparent too.
Quote

The western powers removed Gaddafi, Hussein by sponsoring opposition and military intervention. Are Libya and Iraq better off now?
Dramatically different outcomes. Libya was an example of President Obama leading from behind (we mainly provided munitions support to EU operation), but Gaddafi had already abandoned his WMD program so all that was accomplished was trading a dictator for a lawless state where radical elements could prosper, and that still has different factions fighting for control.

Iraq appears better off, but is definitely in Iran's sphere of influence, that Iran it attempting to extend in a continuous arc through Syria into Lebanon.   
Quote
Now it's the same story with Venezuela, and frankly I don't believe a word they say anymore.
They? 

Um no... Venezuela was one of the wealthiest nations in south america thanks to its vast oil riches before Chavez nationalized the major industries (like oil but now almost everything), and gutted them with years of no maintenance, investment, and mismanagement. Maduro's only remaining supporters are nations doing so just to irritate and thwart American influence (Russia and China).  We don't need his oil, but the Venezuelan people deserve a better quality of life than they are getting. I can't even imagine a 10 million percent inflation rate.
Quote
So I don't think it is as simple as 'removing the bad guy'. The world is more complicated than that.
If you think USA/EU cares about 'democracy, freedom and the people' of the foreign nations then you are just naive. Protecting your own interests is only thing that matters in geopolitics, and often it contradicts the well being of the population.
Call me naive (again). It is protecting our interests to manage Russian and Chinese influence in South America. More importantly this is about the Venezuelan people's interest. They already had a constitutional democracy before Chavez gutted it, while stealing his nations wealth. This is not like starting from scratch, just undoing a couple decades of bad behavior, and restoring former civility, and quality of life.

Maduro won't even allow humanitarian aid in that has been sitting in Columbia right across the border, while his people starve and desperately need medical supplies.

Scott is hearing anecdotal evidence from ex-pats who already left Venezuela for Florida out of desperation and they were the lucky ones.

JR
John Roberts
http://circularscience.com
Tune it, or don't play it...

Anthon

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #14 on: March 10, 2019, 03:10:11 PM »
Again, I will not pretend I know the situation in Venezuela, I just see a lot of very familiar red flags of the situations I'm well aware of, so I'm very sceptical.
I'm just saying the mainstream media lost all its credibility in the past decade, at least for me.

By 'they' I mean all the mainstream media.
There is absolutely no alternative point of view of foreign matters what so ever. Nobody would even go as far as translating what the foreign leaders have to say. You always get some reporter that says what you need to hear, only 1 interpretation, only 1 part of the story. All supposedly independent media outlets repeat the same thing.
And what you need to hear, is that whoever is inconvenient for the big business is bad and everybody who is convenient is good. The people are not a part of equation here.
Nothing personal, just business.

I don't see how Russian and Chinese investments in Venezuela are against the rules. Open market? I guess not.
Yes, I do believe USA acts in the interests of its economy and defends itself from Russian and Chinese competition, but I don't believe it cares about the people.

Putin also nationalised the oil/gas industry - but it seemed to work in favour of the people. It's when it was it private hands, the most of the profits ended up in foreign offshore accounts.
Putin might be not democratic, but this is Russia. Russians in general prefer seeing 1 strong person in charge that they are familiar with and that can get the things done. Russia is a volatile country, and change of power often led to disastrous results. Even if the ''dictator'' steps down peacefully, the vacuum of power will most likely lead to a civil war. There are plenty of examples of that happening in Russian history.
Not that I believe that there is such thing as democracy, anywhere in the world.

You are talking about forecasts of inflation. But are you aware that economic forecasts are a 'self fulfilling prophecy'?
If you say the certain currency will become worthless soon, the people holding it will want to get rid of it as soon as possible, which in turn influences supply/demand of the currency, and makes is lose its value.
If a big agency gives a bad rating to some country, it will struggle attracting investors or getting loans at normal rates. And visa versa. A country with good rating will have investments pouring in.
An active media campaign against a certain country will have a big impact on the economy.
I'm not saying it's responsible for all the problems, but it certainly makes everything even worse.

About the aid being refused:
First of all, it's very cynical to offer couple of millions worth of aid, after you have just frozen billions of assets of Venezuela in foreign banks.
Secondly, we don't know what the conditions are. It's never that simple, there is always a fine print.
For example,  the infamous 'Bush legs': during the dissolution of USSR, USA flooded the USSR markets with cheap chicken meat as humanitarian aid, which killed already struggling poultry industry. The prices went up very fast, but the competition was completely annihilated. As a result, the USA had about 75% import quota of chicken meat to Russia up to 2009. We are talking billions in profit for the USA meat industry, jobs etc - and less for the Russian economy.
As of 2015, all the Russian chicken meat demand has been covered by the domestic production. Putin banned entire USA import of chicken meat as response to sanctions. Of course this is not something a democratic leader would do.

I'm not saying humanitarian aid is always bad, but it does get abused a lot, and the countries that try to make a stand against it are often accused of being dictatorships not caring for the people.
Of course every morally questionable act will be sold as a good deed.

Even if you know Venezuelans who take pro-USA point of view, it doesn't mean much.
During the 2014 Ukrainian coup d'etat, after refusing to sign EU-association (which later turned out to be not in favour of Ukrainian economy) pretty much every Ukrainian media outlet was trashing Yanukovich.
Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians were cheering for it, and later regretted it.
5 years later it's safe to say that it was all a huge disaster, even though at the time it looked like it couldn't be worse and that the new pro-EU candidate would finally bring happiness to the people.

Bottom line: I just don't trust media, the tactics of revolutions seems way to familiar to me.  I'm experiencing a lot of deja vu's when I hear about Venezuela.
The definition of insanity, is, doing the exact same f**king thing over and over again, expecting sh*t to change. That. Is. Crazy.

I guess the time will tell, if removing Maduro will make Venezuela better, then by all means.
I just doubt it, more likely there will be a civil war with foreign interventions to protect their respective interests.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2019, 03:15:53 PM by Anthon »

fazer

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #15 on: March 10, 2019, 03:24:57 PM »
Lots of truth in what you say Anthon.   The cynic in me agrees whole heartedly . 

JohnRoberts

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #16 on: March 10, 2019, 04:01:42 PM »
Again, I will not pretend I know the situation in Venezuela, I just see a lot of very familiar red flags of the situations I'm well aware of, so I'm very sceptical.
I'm just saying the mainstream media lost all its credibility in the past decade, at least for me.
the press has long had their own agendas,,, these days there is so much news you have to edit out the chaff from the wheat. 
Quote
By 'they' I mean all the mainstream media.
There is absolutely no alternative point of view of foreign matters what so ever.
seriously?
Quote
Nobody would even go as far as translating what the foreign leaders have to say. You always get some reporter that says what you need to hear, only 1 interpretation, only 1 part of the story. All supposedly independent media outlets repeat the same thing.
And what you need to hear, is that whoever is inconvenient for the big business is bad and everybody who is convenient is good. The people are not a part of equation here.
Nothing personal, just business.
I have shared this before but I used to watch a cable news show where they rebroadcast news casts from middle east governments. Sometimes translating these into english, and there is a notable difference between what world leaders say for consumption in their home markets and international speeches (made in english for western consumption).

As a kid in the 50s-60s I listened to shortwave radio program in english from radio moscow and radio havana cuba... I am familiar with the concept of propaganda.
Quote
I don't see how Russian and Chinese investments in Venezuela are against the rules. Open market? I guess not.
It is all about buying influence and propping up an anti-american regime.  China has already blinked and started negotiating with the new government over massive ($Bs)  debt.  Russia is taking another tact trying to gain leases on major oil assets. The Cuban regime has too much to lose to pull back now.
Quote
Yes, I do believe USA acts in the interests of its economy and defends itself from Russian and Chinese competition, but I don't believe it cares about the people.
I think we know what you believe.
Quote
Putin also nationalised the oil/gas industry - but it seemed to work in favour of the people. It's when it was it private hands, the most of the profits ended up in foreign offshore accounts.
still enriches Putin's oligarch friends... How much of that oil money was being laundered in Cyprus?  As long as oil prices remain high, Putin can keep his economy stable.. but he is already working with the opec cartel to try to keep oil prices high, as we keep finding more.
Quote
Putin might be not democratic, but this is Russia. Russians in general prefer seeing 1 strong person in charge that they are familiar with and that can get the things done. Russia is a volatile country, and change of power often led to disastrous results. Even if the ''dictator'' steps down peacefully, the vacuum of power will most likely lead to a civil war. There are plenty of examples of that happening in Russian history.
you mean like 1917... only a century ago.
Quote

Not that I believe that there is such thing as democracy, anywhere in the world.
The US is a representative republic... lynch mobs are simple democracies.
Quote
You are talking about forecasts of inflation. But are you aware that economic forecasts are a 'self fulfilling prophecy'?
that was IMF a respected financial source.

No I am not aware that economic forecasts are self fulfilling prophecies.. :o if they were China would be doing better and so would we. We have economic forecasts both higher and lower than reality  from the different political teams. I suspect their forecasts are wishful thinking.
Quote

If you say the certain currency will become worthless soon, the people holding it will want to get rid of it as soon as possible, which in turn influences supply/demand of the currency, and makes is lose its value.
hyper inflation is well understood phenomenon, played out multiple times in history. It usually ends up with a government change.
Quote
If a big agency gives a bad rating to some country, it will struggle attracting investors or getting loans at normal rates. And visa versa. A country with good rating will have investments pouring in.
capital is fungible and pursues stable and safe return anywhere in the world... When Maduro misses a few more bond payments his ability to borrow gets even worse. Russia is already trying to gain control of Venezuela's Citgo assets in the US, to collateralize debt obligations but that is not going to happen.
Quote
An active media campaign against a certain country will have a big impact on the economy.
I'm not saying it's responsible for all the problems, but it certainly makes everything even worse.
I believe you overestimate the power of the media, I think they do too... 8)
Quote
About the aid being refused:
First of all, it's very cynical to offer couple of millions worth of aid, after you have just frozen billions of assets of Venezuela in foreign banks.
Apples and oranges. Maduro is using oil money to secure his military support to oppose the will of his own citizens, who are starving and in need of better medical supplies/attention. Cuban doctors can't help if there is no medicine/bandages.
Quote
Secondly, we don't know what the conditions are. It's never that simple, there is always a fine print.
For example,  the infamous 'Bush legs': during the dissolution of USSR, USA flooded the USSR markets with cheap chicken meat as humanitarian aid, which killed already struggling poultry industry. The prices went up very fast, but the competition was completely annihilated. As a result, the USA had about 75% import quota of chicken meat to Russia up to 2009. We are talking billions in profit for the USA meat industry, jobs etc - and less for the Russian economy.
As of 2015, all the Russian chicken meat demand has been covered by the domestic production. Putin banned entire USA import of chicken meat as response to sanctions. Of course this is not something a democratic leader would do.
::)
Quote
I'm not saying humanitarian aid is always bad, but it does get abused a lot, and the countries that try to make a stand against it are often accused of being dictatorships not caring for the people.
Of course every morally questionable act will be sold as a good deed.
Humanitarian aid when the population is leaving in droves because of intolerable living conditions seems unquestionably a good deed.
Quote
Even if you know Venezuelans who take pro-USA point of view, it doesn't mean much.
During the 2014 Ukrainian coup d'etat, after refusing to sign EU-association (which later turned out to be not in favour of Ukrainian economy) pretty much every Ukrainian media outlet was trashing Yanukovich.
Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians were cheering for it, and later regretted it.
5 years later it's safe to say that it was all a huge disaster, even though at the time it looked like it couldn't be worse and that the new pro-EU candidate would finally bring happiness to the people.

Bottom line: I just don't trust media, the tactics of revolutions seems way to familiar to me.  I'm experiencing a lot of deja vu's when I hear about Venezuela.
you seem to be arguing a different, or multiple different issues.
Quote
The definition of insanity, is, doing the exact same f**king thing over and over again, expecting sh*t to change. That. Is. Crazy.

I guess the time will tell, if removing Maduro will make Venezuela better, then by all means.
I just doubt it, more likely there will be a civil war with foreign interventions to protect their respective interests.
Indeed time will tell... The US has to be careful to not overstep its authority. The opposition leader called for external military intervention but everybody ignored him as that would play into your scenario that outsiders are trying to remove Maduro to take over oil assets. The democratic assembly unseated him officially but he has ignored them so far.  We need to allow the democratic process to run its course, they have already declared Maduro no longer in charge, and many countries besides the US recognize the new government. The much shorter list is the countries who still support Maduro and that reads like the USA haters club (Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, etc). 

They need to persuade the generals to flip allegiances, many of whom are richly rewarded by Maduro. The sanctions effort is to cut off this revenue buying his top military support.  A journalist was recently released who was imprisoned because he refused to give up his sources when he investigated and reported the different sentiment of the regular security forces who are not as well paid as the generals so lack their support for Maduro.

JR
John Roberts
http://circularscience.com
Tune it, or don't play it...

Anthon

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #17 on: March 10, 2019, 07:03:03 PM »
I'm discussing different issues here, just because I'm more familiar with post-USSR politics. I'm just trying to point out, that it's almost impossible to form an opinions on geopolitical issues based on what we are being told, even though it might seem obvious. There are always two sides of the story, and it's rarely being told. Especially if not enough time has passed, and you don't speak the language of the opposite side.

I seriously believe there is no alternative point of view on some issues, especially concerning geopolitics. There is so much that is being ignored, on the post-USSR issues. Very important parts of the picture, that are just nowhere to be found. I could go for hours on these things, but I've already taken it out of topic to much.

So I assume it's the same for China, Iran, Venezuela, and even North Korea. I refuse to make judgements of these countries, because I can't hear their side of the story.

Funny how nations that try protect their sovereignty suddenly become 'USA haters club'.

Putin ''enriches'' Russian oligarchs, just as US government enriches theirs. The main difference here in Russia it's called corruption, and in USA it's called lobbying. Entrepreneur in USA, oligarch in Russia. Also there is just more money in USA, so on average people get more scraps from the table. Also the history is different - post USSR has been crashed multiple times in the past century, while it has always been quite in the North America.
Also there is a difference between Yeltsin-era oligarchs, and Putin-era oligarchs.
Current oligarchs actually build things, while enriching themselves and they stay out of politics. Yeltsin-era oligarchs just were stealing money, without building a thing, and they were running the country.
Money being poured into offshore bank accounts is just something can not be avoided for most of the 2nd and 3rd world countries, under current economic world order, unless you build an iron curtain.
There are plenty of wealthy western individuals that move their money into so called tax havens.

I'm not talking about propaganda - in USSR you had 'radio freedom' (it still exists btw), which broadcasted pro-USA propaganda into USSR territory.
I'm talking about leaders directly addressing the issues.
For instance back in 2014, there were good reasons why Yanukovich government refused to sign the EU-association, which later ignited the euromaidan protests, which in turn led to a coup.  The prime minister of Ukraine, Nikolai Azarov made points why this agreement would not benefit Ukraine. Basically, it would open Ukrainian markets entirely, while having restrictions on what Ukraine could sell to EU, meanwhile it would also mean breaking certain economic ties with Russia.
Yet it was completely ignored by everybody. It was reported as 'bad putin-puppet dictator Yanukovich refuses freedom of being in the EU to his people'. Even most of the Ukrainian media, being owned by the opposition, completely ignored it.


Yes, 1917 is one of the examples of Russia diving into complete chaos because of a sudden change of power. What people call 'Stalins repressions' are in fact aftermath of a struggle for power of different fractions and a civil war. (even though the death-toll is vastly over exaggerated). After Khrushchev came to power, the new witch hunt begun.
Then dissolution of USSR, ignited multiple conflicts all over former USSR and in Russia.
Boris Yeltsin even ordered tanks to open fire at the parliament, when it tried to impeach him in 1993. Yet he was considered a democratic leader by the west at the time.

The self fulfilling prophecy does work.
Maybe not 100%, but it has a significant impact. It also depends on the type of commodity.
And I say it as someone who has bachelors degree in economic sciences.

JohnRoberts

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #18 on: March 10, 2019, 10:17:39 PM »
I'm discussing different issues here, just because I'm more familiar with post-USSR politics. I'm just trying to point out, that it's almost impossible to form an opinions on geopolitical issues based on what we are being told, even though it might seem obvious. There are always two sides of the story, and it's rarely being told. Especially if not enough time has passed, and you don't speak the language of the opposite side.

I seriously believe there is no alternative point of view on some issues, especially concerning geopolitics. There is so much that is being ignored, on the post-USSR issues. Very important parts of the picture, that are just nowhere to be found. I could go for hours on these things, but I've already taken it out of topic to much.

So I assume it's the same for China, Iran, Venezuela, and even North Korea. I refuse to make judgements of these countries, because I can't hear their side of the story.
nice that you are so open minded about them but not the US.
Quote
Funny how nations that try protect their sovereignty suddenly become 'USA haters club'.
nothing sudden about any of them...
Quote
Putin ''enriches'' Russian oligarchs, just as US government enriches theirs. The main difference here in Russia it's called corruption, and in USA it's called lobbying.
Lobbying is actually protected speech (1st amendment), but crony capitalism is not protected.
Quote
Entrepreneur in USA, oligarch in Russia.
no, I am an entrepreneur who has started multiple businesses... I am not an oligarch.
Quote
Also there is just more money in USA, so on average people get more scraps from the table. Also the history is different - post USSR has been crashed multiple times in the past century, while it has always been quite in the North America.
Also there is a difference between Yeltsin-era oligarchs, and Putin-era oligarchs.

again why should this be important information.
Quote
Current oligarchs actually build things, while enriching themselves and they stay out of politics. Yeltsin-era oligarchs just were stealing money, without building a thing, and they were running the country.
Money being poured into offshore bank accounts is just something can not be avoided for most of the 2nd and 3rd world countries, under current economic world order, unless you build an iron curtain.
There are plenty of wealthy western individuals that move their money into so called tax havens.

I'm not talking about propaganda - in USSR you had 'radio freedom' (it still exists btw), which broadcasted pro-USA propaganda into USSR territory.
They were (are?) called voice of america...  The value of disinformation was discussed by Sun Tzu in the art of war centuries BC..
Quote

I'm talking about leaders directly addressing the issues.
For instance back in 2014, there were good reasons why Yanukovich government refused to sign the EU-association, which later ignited the euromaidan protests, which in turn led to a coup.  The prime minister of Ukraine, Nikolai Azarov made points why this agreement would not benefit Ukraine. Basically, it would open Ukrainian markets entirely, while having restrictions on what Ukraine could sell to EU, meanwhile it would also mean breaking certain economic ties with Russia.
Yet it was completely ignored by everybody. It was reported as 'bad putin-puppet dictator Yanukovich refuses freedom of being in the EU to his people'. Even most of the Ukrainian media, being owned by the opposition, completely ignored it.


Yes, 1917 is one of the examples of Russia diving into complete chaos because of a sudden change of power. What people call 'Stalins repressions' are in fact aftermath of a struggle for power of different fractions and a civil war. (even though the death-toll is vastly over exaggerated). After Khrushchev came to power, the new witch hunt begun.
Then dissolution of USSR, ignited multiple conflicts all over former USSR and in Russia.
Boris Yeltsin even ordered tanks to open fire at the parliament, when it tried to impeach him in 1993. Yet he was considered a democratic leader by the west at the time.
?
Quote
The self fulfilling prophecy does work.
Maybe not 100%, but it has a significant impact. It also depends on the type of commodity.
And I say it as someone who has bachelors degree in economic sciences.
I like to observe that economics is not a hard science like physics that has inviolate laws. Economic study is much softer often based on conflicted data making conclusions less reliable.

The only time economics projections are self fulfilling, is if you also create the data results too.  ::)

JR
John Roberts
http://circularscience.com
Tune it, or don't play it...

boji

Re: Venezuela heating up
« Reply #19 on: March 10, 2019, 10:36:45 PM »
Hello, Anthon.

Quote
even though the death-toll is vastly over exaggerated

What do you think of Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn's work?  I've read his work to mean much of the death-toll during Stalin's era was vastly under-estimated or suppressed. The only criticisms of The Gulag Archipelago I can find are from people with ties to state security.


 

Related Topics

  Subject / Started by Replies Last post
5 Replies
1507 Views
Last post May 20, 2006, 12:46:30 PM
by EmRR
16 Replies
3764 Views
Last post October 25, 2005, 12:00:26 AM
by bcarso
11 Replies
2007 Views
Last post November 17, 2008, 12:03:55 PM
by bluesman714
20 Replies
5654 Views
Last post March 09, 2009, 07:35:19 PM
by AnalogPackrat