cyrano

Why is it people love to believe and hate to know?


cyrano

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #41 on: September 29, 2019, 11:25:17 AM »
The 737 saga is still not over:

https://komonews.com/news/local/exclusive-unexpected-cracking-found-on-critical-boeing-737ng-equipment

It seems a critical part of the plane is showing cracks.
Why is it people love to believe and hate to know?

JohnRoberts

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #42 on: September 29, 2019, 02:13:14 PM »
oh oh ::)  cracked pickle forks.  The 737NG  isn't the same aircraft as the MAX, using different wing (tips) and engines for higher efficiency. Of course any mechanical issue is worth inspection.  IIRC the new engines are why they incorporated MCAS to make the control response more similar to the original airframe. Unclear if the new engines put more/less/or just different stress on the pickle forks.

I am too old to make short term stock market trades but Boeing looked way too cheap on the crash news, and so far my judgement appears to be correct (up 3+%)...  These planes won't stay grounded forever and after the world gets their pound of flesh they will be released from regulatory jail and the stock will rebound even higher (price target something like $500). Of course the future has not happened yet and I am not batting 100% on predicting the future. 

They recently announced a reorganized corporate reporting structure to give engineers direct reporting right up to the top executive, instead of having engineers report to non-engineering managers (who might as we say lack engineering judgement  ::) ).

There is no question that they screwed up. Significant was over estimating the flying chops of many inexperienced pilots, with smaller foreign airlines. I wonder if this moves us any closer to self flying aircraft? They just about do that now but the MCAS screw up was clearly a software/sensor breakdown that full computer control would not have handled well if at all, surely not better than an experienced pilot. Several experienced pilots did fly through the MCAS bad helping.

JR

PS: Do not follow me into dicey stock trades,,, may be too late to buy now anyhow.
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

cyrano

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #43 on: September 29, 2019, 07:27:00 PM »
I don't know about planes, but I came across a reminder that autonmous cars have been in development for a very, very long time now.

Autonomous driving in the 80's:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HbVWm7wdmE

« Last Edit: September 29, 2019, 07:30:10 PM by cyrano »
Why is it people love to believe and hate to know?

JohnRoberts

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #44 on: September 29, 2019, 09:09:17 PM »
I don't know about planes, but I came across a reminder that autonmous cars have been in development for a very, very long time now.

Autonomous driving in the 80's:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HbVWm7wdmE
I saw a self driving motorcycle on the jay leno show...  8)

I expect self driving long haul trucks will become common before cars, but they are already testing self driving taxis in some cities (don't plan on retiring as a driver for Uber or Lyft).

Where we're self driving cars back when I was drinking seriously..? I was born too late for horses and too early for self diving cars to get me home...... officer.  ::)

JR
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

cyrano

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #45 on: October 02, 2019, 12:26:37 AM »
Get a mule...

There's a fella in Casares, Spain, who rides his mule to the local bar. When he's drunk, someone puts him on his mule and the animal takes him safely home.

The Policia local don't know what to do, as the law speaks only about cars and horses. It seems mules aren't worthy in the eyes of the law. So they leave him be.
Why is it people love to believe and hate to know?

JohnRoberts

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #46 on: October 02, 2019, 09:11:06 AM »
Get a mule...

There's a fella in Casares, Spain, who rides his mule to the local bar. When he's drunk, someone puts him on his mule and the animal takes him safely home.

The Policia local don't know what to do, as the law speaks only about cars and horses. It seems mules aren't worthy in the eyes of the law. So they leave him be.
A mule is half horse so I guess they could give him half the fine... 

A donkey might get him a free pass home.

JR
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

cyrano

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #47 on: October 02, 2019, 10:29:03 AM »
Could be a donkey, John. "Mule" was just the first English word for it that sprung into my mind. Sorry.

And I guess you don't know Spanish police. They're not in for half measures. Very serious and very professional people. Usually :D
Why is it people love to believe and hate to know?

JohnRoberts

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #48 on: October 02, 2019, 12:13:29 PM »
I recall attending a big dealer meeting in Mexico (last century) when the dealers shared that the Peavey CS800 was affectionately called "el burro".

JR   
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

cyrano

Why is it people love to believe and hate to know?


JohnRoberts

Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

DaveP

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #51 on: March 10, 2020, 05:21:24 PM »
My understanding is this, please correct me if I'm wrong!

Pilots love the 737, it originally had narrow diameter engines.

Modern fuel efficient engines have much larger diameters to accomodate the fans which boost the output.

The 737 when fitted with these engines  lost the old balance so they developed the dreaded software fix instead of a total redesign, I don't think they will ever do that again.

Now I understand they have to rewire all the 800 max's because there is a possible fire problem with the wiring.

Note to management: Don't let accountants design your planes.

DaveP

Soundcloud: Delayed Action.

JohnRoberts

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #52 on: March 10, 2020, 06:24:18 PM »
My understanding is this, please correct me if I'm wrong!

Pilots love the 737, it originally had narrow diameter engines.
it worked well
Quote
Modern fuel efficient engines have much larger diameters to accomodate the fans which boost the output.
I don't know if it was a diameter thing, but the new engines had a different thrust pitch (angle) that changed the airframe nominal attitude, under power. 
Quote
The 737 when fitted with these engines  lost the old balance so they developed the dreaded software fix instead of a total redesign,
yes, starting from scratch is more expensive.
Quote
I don't think they will ever do that again.
never say never...  Many military aircraft are not stable without computer assistance to even fly...
Quote
Now I understand they have to rewire all the 800 max's because there is a possible fire problem with the wiring.
oh dear.....  I'm up on the extra shares I bought yesterday, still down on my first buy. But they should fly again sooner rather than later.

the potential wiring issue with wires chafing in the tail section, is not a big issue IMO, getting FAA (and foreign regulators) to bless the new improved MCAS is still the hinge point.
Quote
Note to management: Don't let accountants design your planes.

DaveP
Note to airlines management around the world, don't let junior pilots fly the big birds without adequate hours of experience (training?).

This will only get worse in the future since we no longer have an excessive supply of ex-military pilots... The future of air warfare is remote control piloting of drones.

The next logical progression is remote control of commercial aircraft (like drones), but I don't see consumers being very receptive to flying behind empty flight decks.  ::)

 JR
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

DaveP

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #53 on: March 10, 2020, 06:33:38 PM »
I think there will be plenty of spare pilots very soon if this virus is not brought under control.

Sell, sell sell!

DaveP
Soundcloud: Delayed Action.

JohnRoberts

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #54 on: March 11, 2020, 09:43:02 AM »
I think there will be plenty of spare pilots very soon if this virus is not brought under control.
Good time to buy airplane tickets....  ::)

It is human nature to weigh downside risks more strongly than gains or benefits.

Likewise it wins media more eyeballs to focus on "sky is falling" doom and gloom, than good news.
Quote
Sell, sell sell!
Classic investing advice is to buy when there is blood in the streets, and sell when everybody is celebrating... 

JR
Quote
DaveP
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

cyrano

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #55 on: March 11, 2020, 03:53:26 PM »
Yeah, speculators don't mind making money out of the misery of others...
Why is it people love to believe and hate to know?

JohnRoberts

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #56 on: March 11, 2020, 04:39:58 PM »
Yeah, speculators don't mind making money out of the misery of others...
That's one way to look at it... but not very accurate...

If the stocks I purchased keep going down like they did today, the person who sold to me is profiting from my misery.  :o

As often happens I am early with these trades...  right now indistinguishable from "wrong", but we'll see...  I expect more rough sledding ahead, and more negative news to scare the sheeple***.

JR

*** Since I am in the at risk age group perhaps I should be more scared.  8)
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

cyrano

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #57 on: March 11, 2020, 05:50:38 PM »
Let's be positive, hey?

Corona might just be THE solution to mankind's problems. Thinning out the elderly and reducing the emissions from our unbridled desire to travel and our always growing industries...

OR it might teach us to cooperate.
Why is it people love to believe and hate to know?

JohnRoberts

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #58 on: March 11, 2020, 07:05:45 PM »
Let's be positive, hey?

Corona might just be THE solution to mankind's problems. Thinning out the elderly and reducing the emissions from our unbridled desire to travel and our always growing industries...

OR it might teach us to cooperate.
Is that your idea of being positive?  ::)

JR
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

benb

Re: they don't get it...
« Reply #59 on: March 12, 2020, 04:08:58 PM »
it worked wellI don't know if it was a diameter thing, but the new engines had a different thrust pitch (angle) that changed the airframe nominal attitude, under power. 
They're so big that they had to be mounted more forward on the wing (else they'd drag the ground).  This put them forward of the "balance point" of the plane so that an increase in thrust tends to make the plane's nose tilt uplward. The MCAS was effectively a patch for this.

Quote
Many military aircraft are not stable without computer assistance to even fly...
Yeah, I think especially the Stealth bomber.  But then it's designed that way from the ground up, everything is very well tested, etc., etc., etc.

There's a longish and detailed thread on diyaudio, they trace (and there's some online article to this effect) the ultimate problem to a quarter century ago when Boeing was bought by and began to be run by finance people (and the corporate headquarters moved away from the plant) rather than engineers, thus the mission became making money rather than making good products.


 

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