COVID-19

Spanish flu seemed to kill by cytokine storm, something we only fairly recently understand (past 30 years or so!)

Basically is a positive feedback loop of enzymes that cause immune response. Runaway response causes inflammation, particularly in the lungs, which leads to respiratory failure. This is why it was so dangerous to the 18-35 demographic. Spanish flu was 2-3% mortality but that 2-3% was otherwise healthy people - scary.

COVID19 doesn’t seem to share this type of behavior. But, it seems to be more dangerous than the seasonal flu by a couple of orders of magnitude. If as some reports say 5% require a ventilator - thats nuts, and would quickly overwhelm any healthcare system. Seems like it’s probably going to make its way around the world. There’s simply too much air travel these days for it to stop, now. My opinion.

Cabin air is recycled , its only a few % fresh depending on how cheap the operator is, adding fresh and pumping out stale air at altitude costs extra fuel . A long hollow sealed metal tube filled with humans sharing air ,its like a microbiological playground for nasties.

Seeing the usual suspects here pooh-pooh the risks of the COVID19 fills me with a sense of dread.  You're wrong about so very many things, and I fear you might be wrong about this as well. 

Consider this:  the low end prediction for a pandemic is 40% of the population contracts the disease in a year's time.  At a 2% fatality rate (which would likely climb in a pandemic), you're talking approx. 60 million deaths.  If infection rate is closer to 70%, you're looking at over 100 million deaths.  Even at a much lower fatality rate, a pandemic would cause millions of deaths and be a major social and economic disruption.

I really hope that doesn't come to pass.  But it is not a risk that one should take lightly. 

hodad said:

Seeing the usual suspects here pooh-pooh the risks of the COVID19 fills me with a sense of dread.  You're wrong about so very many things, and I fear you might be wrong about this as well. 

Consider this:  the low end prediction for a pandemic is 40% of the population contracts the disease in a year's time.  At a 2% fatality rate (which would likely climb in a pandemic), you're talking approx. 60 million deaths.  If infection rate is closer to 70%, you're looking at over 100 million deaths.  Even at a much lower fatality rate, a pandemic would cause millions of deaths and be a major social and economic disruption.

I really hope that doesn't come to pass.  But it is not a risk that one should take lightly.

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You mean like the WHO (world health organization)? They have reiterated that it is NOT a pandemic, but has potential.

WHO said:

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called the new outbreaks "deeply concerning," but said that "for the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus."

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If that sounds like pooh-pooh to you, sorry.  China has still refused to allow US CDC professionals into their country to study origins of this virus.

Outbreaks in Italy and Iran are unexpected... Multiple mass public celebrations in Italy have been canceled in a demonstration of prudence.  Iran may not have the medical capability to manage this outbreak well. We are seeing the ability of modern jet travel to quickly spread communicable diseases.

JR

PS: Aircraft may need to improve their cabin air exchange/purification despite the increased cost, especially for travel from suspect regions, while that list is growing. 

Tubetec said:

I believe D. Rumsfeldt held a large stake in Mexican based pig farms for many years before the swine flu epidemic, he managed to get out and cut his losses before it hit the proverbial fan though . I saw pics from some of these production facillities , they had lakes of pigsh!t a mile wide sitting in the hot sun . Plenty of societies ,especially in hotter climates that wont touch pig production or the meat of the animal , this isnt just some chance occurence ,it must have evolved through trial and error ,like a lot of our customs and social rules evolved for a reason .

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In the Middle-East, pigs descend from stray Roman pigs. As they're not native to the area, they took quite a few centuries to adjust to local diseases and climate. So it wasn't healthy game after the Romans left the area. No wonder Muslims can't eat pork. So, yes, a lot of religious rules carry some logic.

Monogamy, however, doesn't seem to be a rule of that kind. Too much biological facts against it. Like the behaviour  of human sperm on the race to the female egg...

JohnRoberts said:

Outbreaks in Italy and Iran are unexpected... Multiple mass public celebrations in Italy have been canceled in a demonstration of prudence.  Iran may not have the medical capability to manage this outbreak well. We are seeing the ability of modern jet travel to quickly spread communicable diseases.

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Don't forget animals, especially birds. Some species might be spreading the virus without getting sick.

cyrano said:

Don't forget animals, especially birds. Some species might be spreading the virus without getting sick.

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There are varying reports about incubation period and even symptomless carriers. At this point, in this time, there is probably a lot of fake news too, so caveat lector.

JR

I've read the 1918 Flu had a 10% mortality rate. About 25% of people total worldwide had it. Thus, you sometimes see a mortality rate of 2.5% (but that is a little misleading).
Mortality rate of the covid-19 is still probably a little uncertain but seems significant.
The normal flu has a <.01 % mortality rate, so no comparison.
The attempts to stop the spread of covid-19 seem to have failed.  Governments seem to be trying to balance infections with the economic consequences. Not good.

boji said:

Is it wrong that I tend to get a little squeamish when opening up packages lately I know full well began its journey from a Chinese port?

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I've wondered about this too.  What if you order something like PCBs or other electronic components? It can live on surfaces for 7-14 days, so theoretically it might be a cause for concern, but I haven't heard anyone expressly comment on it.

I was just talking to my wife about her Thai friend and she mentioned a time this past weekend that her friend went to comment on someone's baby and leaned down to do the baby thing people do, look and baby talk, and the father turned the stroller real quick...

My wife's friend has been American for over 30 years but still has a thick accent....  Not Chinese but ...

... I guess it's better safe than sorry with anyone these days, maybe that's all it was.... :-\

What if you order something like PCBs or other electronic components? It can live on surfaces for 7-14 days,

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Unlikely, but if concerned, you could 'quarantine' your order  :

Tried to order sth. via eBay two weeks ago, but Chinese sellers (Shenzhen) were all absent... ... douw!

... I guess it's better safe than sorry with anyone these days, maybe that's all it was.... :-\

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I really hope so. It is incidences like these that are a bit sad to hear and read about... and personally, it's what worries me most right now.

JohnRoberts said:

Outbreaks in Italy and Iran are unexpected... Multiple mass public celebrations in Italy have been canceled in a demonstration of prudence.  Iran may not have the medical capability to manage this outbreak well. We are seeing the ability of modern jet travel to quickly spread communicable diseases.

JR

PS: Aircraft may need to improve their cabin air exchange/purification despite the increased cost, especially for travel from suspect regions, while that list is growing.

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Here in Italy, just to have an idea, today I was at a supermarket and the shelves were quasi-completely void. People bought a lot of things only on these few days seeing that the number of infected people was growing very rapidly.  A problem is that the mask respirators has been sold in a few days too and they are no available ones in Italy, or however they are rare and some of them are sold at high prices.

Quite a bit of misinformation on this thread. Spanish flu had a 2-3% mortality rate for those who contracted it. Not 20%. That is simply false.

And aircraft cabin air is quite clean. They use hepa filters and a complete cabin air exchange is fairly rapid, about 20-30 times per hour. The ratio of fresh air to cabin air on a commercial flight is about 50%. You’re much much MUCH more likely to get sick in the airport itself.

Script said:

Unlikely, but if concerned, you could 'quarantine' your order  :

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I suspect quarantines are based on incubation in mammals. Unclear if virus (who are not alive), have similar half lives... more likely about becoming dehydrated.

You could cook your suspect components, or acid (bleach) wash them.

Tried to order sth. via eBay two weeks ago, but Chinese sellers (Shenzhen) were all absent... ... douw!

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They are locked down...?

low probability risk buying from them...if they don't answer.

JR

PS. I notice multiple people paraphrasing wiki in this thread... I have slid  them a dollar or  two a few times a year when I recently learned something I didn't already know from them.

Here in Italy

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Yeah you guys got it bad, I'm sorry to hear things look quasi-scary with the supermarket.  Keep us posted, please, and stay safe!

dogears said:

Quite a bit of misinformation on this thread. Spanish flu had a 2-3% mortality rate for those who contracted it. Not 20%. That is simply false.

And aircraft cabin air is quite clean. They use hepa filters and a complete cabin air exchange is fairly rapid, about 20-30 times per hour. The ratio of fresh air to cabin air on a commercial flight is about 50%. You’re much much MUCH more likely to get sick in the airport itself.

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Unfortunately I am still learning... 

OK, Hepa filters trap 99.97% of particles 0.3 um....  Corona virus is 0.08 to 0.16 microns so you can do the arithmetic.

No doubt there are energy efficient UVc lamps and other strategies to purify air.

I am not suggesting that airplane travel is a major vector for infection...  There much about the new virus that is still unknown.

JR 

Its been a while since I traveled by airplane, but I used almost always end up with at least sore nose/throat everytime I did .  I guess the systems have improved a lot over the years , there getting away now from engine bleed air ,which comes with a whole host of potential issues for health.
Sub micron filters can scrub most of the nasties out , but thats never going to reach 99.97% effective inside the cabin  unless everybody exhales directly into the return/filter system  ,which they dont . The whole subject of cabin air  quality is something the air industry has played down the signifigance of since way early on . One thing for sure is the whole model the aviation industry is based on means its planes in the sky or bust, so the whole industry is setup on a knife edge . The other issue is if things relating to Covid-19 worsen and aviation needs to be curtailed globally ,like in the days after Sept11 we could see a domino effect on climate.

I was looking at making a few small orders off ebay , but some places  'seller is away until date' seems to being pushed out a little longer than usual , I dont shop with Amazon ,but hearing their supply chain is in difficulty  lately might be another indication more serious implications are coming down the pipeline.

Its scarey that the virus has taken such a fast a hold in Italy , in a region close enough to the geographical centre of the EU and with close connections to neighbouring countries .

dogears said:

Quite a bit of misinformation on this thread. Spanish flu had a 2-3% mortality rate for those who contracted it. Not 20%. That is simply false.

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???
40-50 million died (possibly more)
Infected 500 million people around the world
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

So, 50/500=0.1 -- of those that contracted it, the mortality was 10%.  I don't think anyone said 20% in this thread anyway.


A major challenge with these types of RNA viruses is asymptomatic infections and the mutation rate.
With the common flu, it is estimated 14% of infections are asymptomatic, i.e. people are contagious but not showing symptoms. The coronavirus seems to share this characteristic.
Also, the genetics lend themselves to rapid mutation so unlike a disease like smallpox, a vaccine cannot eradicate it - it is seasonal. Slightly different every year.  One possible outcome is the coronavirus spreads worldwide, and becomes a new norm, yearly. 

dmp said:

???
40-50 million died (possibly more)
Infected 500 million people around the world
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

So, 50/500=0.1 -- of those that contracted it, the mortality was 10%.  I don't think anyone said 20% in this thread anyway.


A major challenge with these types of RNA viruses is asymptomatic infections and the mutation rate.
With the common flu, it is estimated 14% of infections are asymptomatic, i.e. people are contagious but not showing symptoms. The coronavirus seems to share this characteristic.
Also, the genetics lend themselves to rapid mutation so unlike a disease like smallpox, a vaccine cannot eradicate it - it is seasonal. Slightly different every year.  One possible outcome is the coronavirus spreads worldwide, and becomes a new norm, yearly.

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Maybe they'll put it in next years** flu shot.... (for the record I am not pooh-poohing it).

JR

*** usually takes around 2 years to develop vaccines, but apparent one company (Gilead) already has one ready to begin testing...