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Illinois Family I know has ~ 60 y.o. Dad test positive  and On ventilatorRIP, his 87 y.o. Mom was taken to hospital yesterday very sick denied treatment and sent home. They live together. The grandson lives in same home and has been working in food prep at a pizza joint until today. 
 
john12ax7 said:
The US now leads the world with 100k confirmed cases and no sign of slowing down.  Will be up to a million in a week or two.

The government,  at multiple levels,  has done a terrible job handling the situation.

I don’t think that makes much sense. We’re a large nation with 320+ million people.

To me, the only stat that matters in this is fatalities. Germany isn’t doing post Morten tests, but the US and UK are. And depending on how statistics are recorded - not nefariously - some localities may end up tracking more covid19 cases that have comorbidities than others.

Comparing confirmed cases is a waste, because you have different definition of confirmations, different test screenings in place.. in Italy they did little testing until the outbreak, so most of their confirmations were in hospital and very severe. Germany is doing widespread testing, as is S Korea, and the US in the middle of those extremes.

And to really compare, you need to weight all that per capita...and the right per capita (Lombardy vs all Italy gets you a very different picture..same with NYC vs USA).

I think today we’re in an OK position here in the US. But we’re like the kid with the finger in the dike.  Need to figure out the next step, and that probably takes a LOT of testing capacity.
 
dogears said:
And to really compare, you need to weight all that per capita.

True.  But the per capita outlook is very dire.  The US is ahead of the world as a whole.  Far ahead of places like South Korea and Taiwan. And on a trajectory to surpass Italy.

A place like Taiwan did not even shut down because they took decisive early action. The US government,  and a lot of the West chose to down play and ignore the problem. They had the early warning and deliberately ignored it.  It's a disgrace.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data
 
shabtek said:
Cook county Illinois Family I know has ~ 60 y.o. Dad test positive  and On ventilator, his 87 y.o. Mom was taken to hospital yesterday very sick denied treatment and sent home. They live together. The grandson lives in same home and has been working in food prep at a pizza joint until today.

Sorry to hear that.  Very difficult time for the grandson.

Unfortunately the other day I also found out of someone who tested positive.
 
JohnRoberts said:
If you want to be critical of red necks doing something risky, how about new orleans holding mardi gras this year?  but I am not a big fan of whataboutism....

JR

One thing about Mardi Gras is that it was 2/25--there was next to no testing going on at that point, and very little data or federal guidance to make that decision.  It would have been a bold (and extreeeeeemely unpopular) move to shut down Mardi Gras.  In hindsight it would look brilliant. 

 
ruffrecords said:
At least we have a very nice garden.

After 15 days of lockdown, I can tell you that it makes a big difference.
I have a space in the back part of the building that I can get some sun and that is really helping me out.

Wish you all good Ian
 
dogears said:
Germany isn’t doing post Morten tests, but the US and UK are.
I don't know about that, never seen anything said about it, what we know is that Germany is making more tests than everyone else when people are Alive.
They have less deaths attributed to Covid-19 because their Health Systems has an higher threshold of collapse than anyone else in the world and also because a lot of infected people in Germany are young (first infection came from Ski trips) and also because young people don't spend that much amount of time with their Grandparents like southern European countries or the US

john12ax7 said:
The US government,  and a lot of the West chose to down play and ignore the problem. They had the early warning and deliberately ignored it.  It's a disgrace.
That's true.

Some countries are still doing it.
I don't know if you guys are aware, but Brasil has a bigger clown than Trump.
He is called Bolsonaro, and he refused to shutdown anything in the country, at the same time the Mayors of the cities closed the cities down and didn't accept his politics.

In one of his last interviews he says "The Brasilians have to be studied because then don't get any diseases, people dive and swim in the sewer and they dont get sick"
In the last video he made with a slogan "Brasil Can't Stop"

It will be a disgrace there!
 
The only reason I brought it up was to highlight that testing difference make comparisons very difficult.

The data may be skewed even further because of how Germany and Italy conduct post-mortem examinations.

"The Italians test deceased persons who had specific symptoms and bring them into the statistics — we in Germany do not," said Dietrich Rothenbacher, a professor at the Institute for Epidemiology and Medical Biometry at Ulm University.

"It's a complex scenario," he said. Rothenbacher feels strongly that before any solid comparison can be made between countries, "the first step would be to obtain comparable numbers."
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/why-are-so-few-germans-dying-coronavirus-experts-wonder-n1168361
 
"The Italians test deceased persons who had specific symptoms and bring them into the statistics — we in Germany do not," said Dietrich Rothenbacher, a professor at the Institute for Epidemiology and Medical Biometry at Ulm University.

I really don't believe there's time in Italy anymore to test deceased people, maybe in the beginning, but now there's 1000 people dying a day.
I wouldn't believe there's resources to do that at this point
 
I don't learn much from COVID statistics...  Another old saying  "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics".  ::)

I hope the smart people forced to make difficult decisions protecting us are getting all the data they need (but I don't feel very lucky about that).

Indeed we need an exponential increase in testing... this is not a secret and since I remain an optimist I expect the greatest economy in the world to step up and deliver.

===
Individuals just need to behave and follow the advice of your local health professionals.

Be well all... clean your hands and don't touch your face....  and don't date 10 girls at the same time, at least not in the same room.

JR
 
dogears said:
The only reason I brought it up was to highlight that testing difference make comparisons very difficult.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/why-are-so-few-germans-dying-coronavirus-experts-wonder-n1168361

The death rate has been steadily climbing in Germany. It now stands at 0.75%, almost double compared with the number cited in the 4 days old news article. Still, from what I have heard (media and private channels) hospitals in most places appear to be almost empty of corona patients here.

But the curve doesn't look like its flattening much and from what I have seen in my home town many people are not all that cautious...
 
Everybody be well... I realize how scary it can be if you do not trust your government, and they rarely inspire trust in the best of times.

There is a lot of good advice out there about personal sanitation and avoiding crowds... even I am cleaning my hands more often... I still touch my face too much tho..  ::)

JR

PS: Last night I got a call from a friend who just got laid off... I invited him over for a beer and he declined. Probably better for my health that he stayed away. He traveled a lot for his old job. 
 
Yes, the lack of trust in authorities is one of the more scaring - and to me unexpected - aspects of this whole thing. And then when I look at (other) internet discussions I see so many attempts of kicking up dust and making the situation even worse if at all possible - and so very few attempts of keeping rational and human.

Much of the disinformation/distrustbuilding seem to be based on engaging in and enlarging pre-existing polarizing discussions, over time painting everything only black or white, reducing every nuance that truth is. In effect forcing you to stand by one unsustainable  fake-truth or the other.

When we're at our best over here, we stop ourselves before we get too far into that swamp

..and I'm thankful for the effort by so many here for keeping alive nuances even in heated discussions. Makes it worth following from the side line, picking up information bits of real



/Jakob E.
 
Article on favipiravir (Avigan by Fujifilm, yes) and remdesivir by Gilead.

https://fortune.com/2020/03/28/coronavirus-treatment-drug-antiviral-favipiravir-avigan-fujifilm/amp/

Both inhibitors, one for infusion, the other a tablet. So not cures but support for body to fight off.

Japan's PM Abe just gave go ahead for fast-track trials of Avigan. China had reported both drugs some time ago as clearly showing  positive supportive effect.

There are also other drugs being trialled.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076502/race-drug-battle-against-coronavirus
 
With reference to Jakob's previous post,

Distrust of government , thats no surprise to me .
I'm fortunate in some ways ,both my parents had solid government jobs ,
thats not to say it was all a bed of roses where they worked  either ,
but it did put food on the table .
I wouldnt deny for a second Im cut from basically middle class cloth ,
grew up in middle class neighbourhoods , and had opportunities  that  most working class people would never have had.
Having said all of the above Ive been lucky enough to make friends from all backrounds , I certainly didnt stick to my own side of the fence ,like a lot of people do .
What I learned from standing shoulder to shoulder(mostly in the pub)with people who had much tougher lives than me was
a lot of middle/upper society people live in a bubble , a cocoon , insulating themselves from the lesser folk who they prefer to look down their nose at. There's certainly no attempt to understand what life is like for others less fortunate, the reality of which tends to smash the delusion of the well to do's to smithereens.

We have seen some very ugly scenes lately where members of the Gardai(Irish police) have been coughed on, spat at and threatened with Covid infection by kids from tough backrounds , its wound up in the court in several cases.  We can slam our clenched fist on the table all we want ,and cry out 'lock up the scum' but in reality what were seeing is a subset of the population who could never expect and never were protected by the state and that was probably  going on for many generations before the Irish state was even formed. 

I can understand from previous postings the Nordic/Scandinavian countries have a generally high regard/trust in law and order /government,  at the same time does that only better hide a smaller subset of the population who dont?
I remember around 25 years ago paying a visit to Moskow , I remember being quite gob smacked by the orderly behaviour of 99.999% of people , you would see the odd person half steamed(drunk) on neat vodka , but they still knew they couldn't run around shouting and roaring at people in the street or either the cops would drag them off or some military guy would step up and knock them out with the butt of a rifle , fear is the driver there.  Just trying to get a better perspective on how it goes in Northern Europe , how is the balance between order/fear/respect struck?

The thing I worry about all this we have on our plate now is its being used to advance an agenda , no more cash money , the  possibillity of  more armed law enforcement  and a dilution of personal freedoms ,the people who have come to  rely on the long arm of the law seem unquestioning in their belief and their willingness to impose this on others , the people who never had the protection of the law have absolutely no reason to believe in the system at all , and why should they .
 
kambo said:
as you said,
now u can buzz off!

The self-righteousness here is something.  Glad I self-quarantined from here for a week.

Search this forum for "common flu"- where is all the angst over all the deaths?  Tens of thousands each year. The isolation?  The only thing you heard about flu was "FLU SHOT"- do you want one?  do you want one?  did you get one?

Search this forum for "opioid deaths"- crickets, when the equivalent of over 4 737's full of people smash into oblivion EVERY WEEK in the US (over 47K in 2017) from the Chinese virus that is prescription opioids- they are the major supplier of pills and fentanyl by the drum-full.

People here need some perspective beyond what's on their screens NOW.

And what are you going to do next year?  Hide for another two months and need another $2T, $4T? to (not) make it right?  And the next year?  It's not the answer for the majority of the population.  It's supposed to infect 80% of the population in three years- how long can you hide, and will you ever really hide from it, or the next bug to come out of the fetid wet markets of the world?
Interesting times.

Mike
 
A very old strategy used as far back as the spanish flu a century ago, blood transfusions of plasma rich with COVID19 antibodies can help infected patients fight the virus.

Now we need patients who contracted and recovered from COVID19 to donate blood. I wonder if people who contracted only mild cases of COVID19 have useful antibodies? Right now many (?) are undiagnosed (speculation).

They have been working on synthesizing antibodies for years but for now easier to harvest them from survivors.   

JR

PS: I just heard Gov Cuomo state that the price of ventilators has increased from $20k to $50k in weeks, that sounds grossly illegal. There is currently an executive order covering price gouging wrt M95 masks.
 
JohnRoberts said:
They have been working on synthesizing antibodies for years but for now easier to harvest them from survivors.   

JR

cant believe they still have not perfected it  :mad:

Sweden :
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/sweden-coronavirus-approach-is-very-different-from-the-rest-of-europe.html
 
blood transfusions of plasma rich with COVID19 antibodies can help infected patients fight the virus
Yes. I read about that about 10 days ago. That article/paper (?) said it can work but the timing of administering the transfusion is important for it to be effective -- too early won't work, too late won't either. But I'm not a doctor.

Makes me think and maybe repeat that we need two widely available test kits:
- one for detecting fresh infection
- one to detect antibodies
 
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