So in 2 weeks time(3/15 to 3/29), the US went from 3500 documented cases to 140,000. Even with underreporting in the early numbers, that should give one pause. What will we be looking at in another 2 weeks? I'm hoping the social distancing will start working its magic soon.
We are hoping the same thing in France but little is changing despite the lock-down which started on day 19.
I have charted the cases since day one:-
This is the daily increase in cases:-
The Log format shows the gradual turning over better:-
That report earlier annoyed me because it glossed over what is likely to happen. The reality is that for the West, a whole generation of old people will pass (especially the sick) and in particular those with close families. Spain and Italy are a good example as several generations live together in the same house. Italy has a mortality of 10% because of this. When people are so bad that they go on a ventilator, the mortality goes to about 50%. People should say their last goodbyes at that stage because their relatives will not be allowed near them at their point of death.
It is bad enough in the West with good healthcare and housing, but when this gets going in India and Africa later in the year we will be talking of millions of deaths and nothing can be done about it. This is a predictable result of over-population and birthrates beyond the capacity of the health system, nature takes over in the end.
I guess the religious in the US are expecting the apocalypse, the queues at gun stores certainly indicate that :
But if the good citizens of Wuhan had observed the Bibles advice on what is clean and unclean to eat, we would not be where we are now.
We may not be talking about a 1918 scale pandemic, but it may not be far off because the population is that much bigger today.
DaveP
