scott2000

Re: covid politics
« Reply #600 on: June 24, 2020, 02:40:45 PM »
Quote



scares some young pukes into wearing masks and social distancing, it's not all bad.



You haven't seen the Red masks yet? lol


crazydoc

Re: covid politics
« Reply #601 on: June 24, 2020, 04:33:39 PM »
I repeat look at deaths not infections that will rise with the increased testing.
And increased infections will rise with increased disease.

Hopefully the Decadron treatment and other improvements in medical knowledge will mitigate the death rate somewhat, so deaths won't increase at the same relative rate as they have in the past.

If anyone thinks this is all a result of hyperbolic media coverage, go look at some data:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-positive-rate-bar
https://ourworldindata.org/epi-curve-covid-19
Luckily, there is more than one way to skin a cat.
The secret of happiness is having low expectations.

scott2000

Re: covid politics
« Reply #602 on: June 24, 2020, 05:19:40 PM »
Cool charts... Thanks!


crazydoc

Re: covid politics
« Reply #603 on: June 25, 2020, 01:10:49 AM »
My fellow Americans:
Before holding a vote to mandate the wearing of masks in public places to stop the spread of coronavirus, Palm Beach County commissioners were harangued by residents who accused them of obeying the devil, imposing a communist dictatorship and dishonouring the American flag.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-53174415/they-want-to-throw-god-s-wonderful-breathing-system-out
Luckily, there is more than one way to skin a cat.
The secret of happiness is having low expectations.

john12ax7

Re: covid politics
« Reply #604 on: June 25, 2020, 04:17:33 AM »
I am open to hear better solutions.

Ways to fix the political system is probably another thread.  But it's about  .02% of the population who contributes most of the political donations.  So the candidates and their subsequent actions are very far removed from the  people they are supposed to represent.

L´Andratté

Re: covid politics
« Reply #605 on: June 25, 2020, 04:39:39 AM »
Media routinely overstates risk to scare viewers into watching.

Community spread (and testing) is expected to increase with reopening.

Young adults/kids who think they will live forever have ignored social distancing and mask use.

I repeat look at deaths not infections that will rise with the increased testing.

If the hyperbolic "sky is falling" news scares some young pukes into wearing masks and social distancing, it's not all bad.
Reminds me of Peter and the wolf story. The media lied so often, noone believes them now, although they
mighty speak the truth (on covid).
Although, mentioning hyperbolic, I usually think of something else...
"Greatest [insert random content] ever!!!"

Ways to fix the political system is probably another thread.  But it's about  .02% of the population who contributes most of the political donations.  So the candidates and their subsequent actions are very far removed from the  people they are supposed to represent.

Best democracy money can buy...
Maybe world government is already here ;)
Nobody noticed, because everybody was looking the wrong way- at national governments ::)

"Why not get an assistant to work the faders? Real vintage! And maybe cheaper... ;)"

JohnRoberts

Re: covid politics
« Reply #606 on: June 25, 2020, 10:13:23 AM »
Reminds me of Peter and the wolf story. The media lied so often, noone believes them now, although they
mighty speak the truth (on covid).
by accident?  ;D
Quote
Although, mentioning hyperbolic, I usually think of something else...
"Greatest [insert random content] ever!!!"
yup, the blowhard in chief...  ;D
Quote
Best democracy money can buy...
Maybe world government is already here ;)
sadly there has been a major effort in the shadows to get one stood up for years (decades?). The primary stopper is lack of robust no strings funding. They have floated the concept of an international transaction tax, that could generate massive funds taking a cut from international trade volume. 
Quote
Nobody noticed, because everybody was looking the wrong way- at national governments ::)
Some are still paying attention but sadly mass market human attention span is easily distracted by the existential threat du jour. It appears that COVID has eclipsed climate change for the moment.

JR
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.

scott2000

Re: covid politics
« Reply #607 on: June 26, 2020, 01:34:42 PM »
Anyone know if telemedicine is being counted as a hospitalization? 

https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/medicare-telemedicine-health-care-provider-fact-sheet

crazydoc

Re: covid politics
« Reply #608 on: June 26, 2020, 03:00:04 PM »
Anyone know if telemedicine is being counted as a hospitalization? 

https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/medicare-telemedicine-health-care-provider-fact-sheet
A hospitalization needs a formal (physical and administrative) admission to a hospital as an inpatient, and not just being in the hospital. Some patients come into the hospital and are put on a "hold" in a bed in a hospital room for up to 72 hours but are NOT admitted to the hospital and cannot get Medicare (and probably other insurance) benefits for hospitalized patients, especially afterwards for rehab and therapies.

But to answer the question, physicians can use telemedicine to evaluate and follow up hospitalized pateients, but the patient has to be physically admitted to and in the hospital. So no, telemedicine has nothing to do with counting the hospitalization beans.
Luckily, there is more than one way to skin a cat.
The secret of happiness is having low expectations.

scott2000

Re: covid politics
« Reply #609 on: June 26, 2020, 03:42:29 PM »
Thanks. I just wasn't sure because the Emergency waiver outlined in that seems to expand quite a bit on the usual methods where Medicare is concerned at least. Albeit temporary.


scott2000

Re: covid politics
« Reply #610 on: June 27, 2020, 10:35:49 PM »
So I was wondering if people could get multiple tests within a week. Say to find out if you turn negative after a positive because you want to go back to work. But you could test positive more than once I suppose. I've heard of people doing this.

So I just found this in the State report. I guess it's true...

"The numbers in the table below represent the number for whom test results were received by the Department of Health. A person can be tested by more than one laboratory and can have both positive and negative results. Therefore, the sum of the numbers in each column will be larger than the total number of people tested."


The numbers of actual tests are clearly different from what's current/updated on the people tested page... so there is the same person/s testing more than once on some occasions......
  Current                                 
 Total People Tested
1,830,791                                                 2,186,400
Positive
132,545                                      vs          171,768
Negative
1,696,980                                                 2,010,839


So I'm guessing they have some type of way to check if it's the same person testing more than once obviously.almost 356,000 people/ difference just here in FL.....


Edit/// Although it's confusing that some sites are saying they are counting multiple tests for the same person and it's actually written in the state report as such.....

« Last Edit: June 28, 2020, 01:15:10 PM by scott2000 »

scott2000

Re: covid politics
« Reply #611 on: June 28, 2020, 08:42:11 AM »
Published Mon, Jun 15 2020
Texas reports record-breaking coronavirus hospitalizations, the sixth new high in a week

"Texas health authorities said there were 2,287 patients sickened with Covid-19 across its hospitals on Sunday, the sixth new high for coronavirus hospitalizations in the state in less than a week.

The new total is up from 2,242 patients on Saturday, according to updated data from the Texas Department of State Health Services."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/texas-reports-record-breaking-coronavirus-hospitalizations.html


I think it's a bit misleading, although not something to ignore, that these numbers are used like this. Basically the above is saying that 45 new patients were reported admitted across the state hospitals  for covid in one day. Which could mean any walk in FSED or ED and I'm still not even sure if they aren't counting telehealth visits as a hospitalization. I don't see why they wouldn't but idk.... and there weren't 2,287 hospitalizations at this particular time. This is a cumulative number from beginning of April... actually April 8th which was already starting at 1,491...so who knows where zero actually started

Here's another clip from a newer article


June 27, 2020

"On Friday, Texas surpassed 5,000 hospitalizations for the first time with 5,102 hospitalizations. Health officials said Saturday that the number of people hospitalized was at 5,523."

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Texas-reports-5-747-more-COVID-19-cases-amid-surge-15371346.php

Again, Misleading at least to me. There aren't 5,523 hospitalizations at the moment. Again,This is a cumulative amount for all the hospitals across the state since April 8 which was already at 1,491.

https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/TexasCOVID-19HospitalizationsOverTimebyTSA.xlsx

And I'm not sure of what these hospitalizations even mean yet. In FL it means you have covid at any time during a visit.  My sister in law is in the hospital for unrelated seizures and they tested her. If she were to be positive, she would be counted for example.

Does it seem misleading a bit or am I missing something? Perhaps not looking at some data correctly? Obviously something to be concerned with but why the misleading reporting. ?



« Last Edit: June 28, 2020, 10:06:00 AM by scott2000 »

crazydoc

Re: covid politics
« Reply #612 on: June 28, 2020, 01:45:37 PM »
The more diagnoses a hospitalized patient has, the more the hospital gets paid. So I'd imagine if a patient hospitalized for a particular condition is also found to be positive for covid, it's added to his list of diagnoses and probably counted as a covid patient. So there are probably some hospitalizations in the covid count where the disease is not the reason for a hospital stay admisssion, and may not even be contributing to his morbidity. But if I were a patient hospitalized for, say, congestive heart failure, I'd rather not have covid too, which most likely would be a significant contributor to my morbidity or mortality.

Again, there are strict criteria for classification as a hospital admission, and neither telemedicine nor an ER visit has any bearing on it. But I'm sure there are shenanigans to manipulate data for maximum remuneration, which may affect the counts..
Luckily, there is more than one way to skin a cat.
The secret of happiness is having low expectations.

scott2000

Re: covid politics
« Reply #613 on: June 28, 2020, 02:21:36 PM »
Quote


Again, there are strict criteria for classification as a hospital admission, and neither telemedicine nor an ER visit has any bearing on it. But I'm sure there are shenanigans to manipulate data for maximum remuneration, which may affect the counts..

Thanks for clarifying. Definitely good to know. The data I've seen so far seems to line up with that, meaning although I see an increase in hospitalizations, it's nowhere near how the reporting is translating  to myself.

Regarding Miami, the hardest hit area here in FL, Even this site who is very cautious, seems to mention

 "Hospitalizaiton census hit a new high of 981 on June 24th, however, ventilations and ICU census have currently not increased to mid April levels"

I'm still not sure how to interpret the cumulative total on the left of the chart however....


I understand we need to take things seriously, I just don't understand the seemingly intentional straying away from any good news atm...

Here's the site

https://rwilli5.github.io/MiamiCovidProject/Trajectory/


I'm actually more interested in how the testing is being done at this moment. It's confusing if they are in fact counting the same person for multiple test results, even if it's limited to different days. I just don't know what that means ...

This could open up a chance for a lot of conspiracy stuff.... People wanting this to continue for whatever reason....

Unemployment is nice for some....Maybe some movement to break the system.....etc....

I'm sure people are just being cautious and testing multiple times for good reasons... Here I am complaining about the news reports and I'm dark clouding my own...lol



« Last Edit: June 28, 2020, 02:38:09 PM by scott2000 »

cyrano

Re: covid politics
« Reply #614 on: June 29, 2020, 08:02:43 AM »
I've said it before, don't even try to compare numbers. It's impossible.

It's funny. I can remember Trump complaining about China manipulating numbers. Nobody doubts that's happened. And now the Trumpistas are doing the exact same thing.

It will be at the very least five years before we know anything solid about this virus. Unknown quantities seem hard to accept for a lot of people, so media try hard to provide facts. Only these facts aren't solid at all, yet.

- Prolonged immunity is not certain. It might be for the rest of your life, or it could be six months.

- Testing vaccines will take at least a year. What's being done now, is estimating corner-cutting in testing these. One has to hope for the best.

- It's clear that relaxing and doing nothing isn't the best strategy in the short term. We don't know about medium term, but how about long-term?

- We still can't tell all the ways the virus makes people sick, as it attacks the immune system, opening things for all kinds of other microbes. A few statistic indicators exist already, but as the numbers of infections go down, the signal is getting drowned in noise. Noise from politicians, mostly.

The Trumps and Bolsonaro's aren't doing the world a favour. On the contrary.
Why is it people love to believe and hate to know?

scott2000

Re: covid politics
« Reply #615 on: June 29, 2020, 08:49:53 AM »

don't even try to compare numbers. It's impossible.

It will be at the very least five years before we know anything solid about this virus.

- Prolonged immunity is not certain.

-It might be for the rest of your life,

- One has to hope for the best.

- We don't know about medium term, but how about long-term?

- We still can't tell all the ways the virus makes people sick,
 


Quote
- It's clear that relaxing and doing nothing isn't the best strategy in the short term.

Well maybe those geniuses who  made this clear can be commissioned to solve all of the other problems....let me guess.....they'll use numbers....

.....start practicing better hygiene..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OCAkRkAHTk
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 09:52:45 AM by scott2000 »

crazydoc

Re: covid politics
« Reply #616 on: June 29, 2020, 10:05:49 AM »
but as the numbers of infections go down, the signal is getting drowned in noise.
I don't know where you're getting that. The mortality rate is improving (maybe it's killed off a larger percentage of the vulnerable  :) ) , but the number of infections continues to increase.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 10:09:41 AM by crazydoc »
Luckily, there is more than one way to skin a cat.
The secret of happiness is having low expectations.

cyrano

Re: covid politics
« Reply #617 on: June 29, 2020, 07:29:59 PM »
I don't know where you're getting that. The mortality rate is improving (maybe it's killed off a larger percentage of the vulnerable  :) ) , but the number of infections continues to increase.

Mortality rate is based on the numbers of people dying from COVID induced disease.

Major problem #1: we don't know all the forms of disease induced by COVID. What about the Kawasaki-like infection in kids? That's the fourth COVID-related disease I've noticed. How many more are there? And how many are counted as COVID deaths?

Major problem #2: all sorts of manipulations of the numbers. Of course, Trump and Bolsonaro are leading, but even simple mistakes (Italy and NY spring to mind) are enough to statistically obscure a lot. Most importantly the trend (up or down).

It's a slow virus. In a year or so we'll be able to look back and estimate the error. 5%? or 50%?
Why is it people love to believe and hate to know?

crazydoc

Re: covid politics
« Reply #618 on: June 29, 2020, 11:04:36 PM »
Mortality rate is based on the numbers of people dying from COVID induced disease.
So what is covid induced disease? If someone is admitted to the hospital with CHF, decompensates and is transferred to the ICU, has to be intubated and ventilated due to his heart failure, a covid test on admission turns out to be positive, and the patient eventually dies, (may not have died without covid), is that a covid death? Things many times aren't black and white.

Quote
It's a slow virus. In a year or so we'll be able to look back and estimate the error. 5%? or 50%?
It's not a slow virus, at least in its major manifestations - it replicates quickly, That Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome in kids seems to be slower,  likely to be due to the body's inflammatory response rather than slow viral replication, but most covid disease starts within a few days of infection.
Luckily, there is more than one way to skin a cat.
The secret of happiness is having low expectations.

JohnRoberts

Re: covid politics
« Reply #619 on: June 30, 2020, 09:26:50 AM »
People are starting to review non-covid deaths for trend outliers. They discovered extra Alzheimer deaths that were above trend compared to previous years... they were expecting something like 85k deaths and had 100k for 3 month period this year. This does not mean that COVID literally killed all these elders, but already fragile while suffering from dementia, it doesn't take much to tilt the balance maintaining survival.

I suspect there are other un/mis-reported deaths to parse out, but mostly in already at-risk populations (obese, diabetic, heart disease, etc).

JR
Don't only half-ass tune your drums. Visit https://circularscience.com to hear what properly "cleared" drums sound like.


 

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