covid politics

ruffrecords said:

the Barrington Declaration (whose signatories have been vilified in social media and branded akin to climate change deniers).

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Some of the signatories include, and yes these are really on there:

Dr. Person Fakename
Dr Johnny Fartpants
Dr. Harold Shipman (a serial killer for folks who don't know the name)
Professor Notaf Uckingclue
Dr Very Dodgy Doctor
Mr Banana Rama

Lots more similar...

So I can understand that the veracity of the document might be called into question.

*Edit -  a few more I found:

Dr. Johnny Feel Good
Jonn Smith who has a PhD in “garbage”
Dr Real Man  from Botswana  PhD in “Real Subject at Real University”
Dominic Cummings of Durham Univercity
Boris Isacompulsiveliar of Priti Patel Institute for Incompetence, Treason and Xenophobia
Over 100 massage therapists and hypnotherapists
18 self-declared homeopaths
Khöömii Singer a sound therapy practitioner

Imagine a government implementing policy based on such a document.

Winston O'Boogie said:

Some of the signatories include, and yes these are really on there:

Dr. Person Fakename
Dr Johnny Fartpants
Dr. Harold Shipman (a serial killer for folks who don't know the name)
Professor Notaf Uckingclue
Dr Very Dodgy Doctor
Mr Banana Rama

Lots more similar...

So I can understand that the veracity of the document might be called into question.

*Edit -  a few more I found:

Dr. Johnny Feel Good
Jonn Smith who has a PhD in “garbage”
Dr Real Man  from Botswana  PhD in “Real Subject at Real University”
Dominic Cummings of Durham Univercity
Boris Isacompulsiveliar of Priti Patel Institute for Incompetence, Treason and Xenophobia
Over 100 massage therapists and hypnotherapists
18 self-declared homeopaths
Khöömii Singer a sound therapy practitioner

Imagine a government implementing policy based on such a document.

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What I do not understand is this. The original declaration was signed by three eminent scientists/healthcare professionals. It was then cosigned by 42 other scientists/healthcare individuals. This is a tremendous endorsement of the declaration. Then for some unknown reason, they allowed anyone to sign it, presumably to gain public support, and of course that was carte blanche for detractors to play silly buggers with it and that is when the stupid names started to appear and the general vilification ensued.

In my view this detracts nothing from the declaration itself, but merely demonstrates the political naivety of the orignal signatories. The point is, lockdown is clearly the wrong thing to do.

Cheers

Ian

I don't know but, was the original document backed up with relevant research that could be peer analysed and reviewed?

Clearly no government wants to deliberately tank its economy so a decision to lock it down won't be taken lightly. 

I'm not qualified to comment myself, but it would appear that the overwhelming majority of scientists worldwide do not think Herd Immunity is something that can be achieved without massive loss of life.

Without a lockdown, the death figures in the UK within a month or two, at least as far as was being talked about today, was possibly up to 4000 a day, 4 times what it was at the height during the Spring/Summer.

These figures coming from the fact that we dithered about again with other schemes that don't look to be bringing the rates sufficiently down.  My local hospital here (I'm in Manchester) is already approaching maximum capacity for ICU beds. 

 


 

Are you chaps aware of Dr Jon Campbell's videos on YouTube?

He's a retired doctor who's been posting regular updates on his take on the covid-19 situation, but the interesting part is that he steers clear of politics - he provided his opinions on the data, but from a medical standpoint rather than political.

Anyway, he did a bit on the Great Barrington Declaration

https://youtu.be/9lSmSWx6kjA

rob_gould said:

Are you chaps aware of Dr Jon Campbell's videos on YouTube?

He's a retired doctor who's been posting regular updates on his take on the covid-19 situation, but the interesting part is that he steers clear of politics - he provided his opinions on the data, but from a medical standpoint rather than political.

Anyway, he did a bit on the Great Barrington Declaration

https://youtu.be/9lSmSWx6kjA

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I hate watching videos, but watched that one, thank you.

I was impressed by how many times he said he (we?) didn't know, but offered his informed insights. While he did a lot of reading between the lines (inferring unstated intent). I was a little surprised by his latter comments about US (rarely hear anything remotely positive from that side of the pond).

It is the nature of politics to view everything as binary choices, either all or nothing. There is a lot of what should be common sense in that declaration that is sadly lacking in much government policy around the world (but not all... some countries are more protective of their aged population but that may reflect cultural differences).

I repeat, hopefully we can return to more thoughtful discussion after the vote is decided.

JR

PS: It seems a common cancel culture strategy to smear people by the worst examples among their supporters. I am optimistic that we will eventually wake up to the harm from social culture overreach.

My wisdom teeth never came in. I think I’m f**ked.

Gold said:

My wisdom teeth never came in. I think I’m f**ked.

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Ditto, which I consider a blessing. I've heard too many stories of their removal that sound to me more like butcher's work. I've actually never had to have any dental procedure done, I hope that stays that way...

ruffrecords said:

So Germany and France are going in to lockdown "to save Christmas" and it looks like the UK might follow suit some time next week. I think this is madness and almost certain political suicide. The science presented by the governments own scientific advises is diametrically opposed to that presented by the Barrington Declaration (whose signatories have been vilified in social media and branded akin to climate change deniers).

Shielding the vulnerable and letting the majority of the population get back to work seems a much more sensible approach to me.

Cheers

Ian

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Actually the popularity of Merkel as well as other state leading politicians has increased during the pandemic, the majority of people is pretty content with the regulations. This is because of the still low numbers of deaths we've had so far in comparison to many other countries. As well as the financial support programs for the businesses which are affected. So the thinking is what has been done seems to be mostly working. Also we didn't have a real lockdown during the first phase and we don't have now, only certain restrictions. Unlike a real lockdown people can leave their houses as they please. The biggest point of the rules for the next four weeks is to again close down restaurants/bars/cinemas/theaters and other leisure time locations.

Well, it is all rather moot now since Boris appeared on TV this evening just before Strictly Come Dancing to tell us all we are going into lock-down on Thursday until the beginning of December. I predict this will not be well received by the working population. I would even go to say that I expect lock-down will be to Boris as poll tax was to Maggie.

Cheers

Ian

Gold said:

My wisdom teeth never came in. I think I’m f**ked.

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Still got mine.

There's around here somewhere in a little box.

Keeping up with POTUS Pants-on-fire as he comes more unglued.

A new study from Stanford University found that 18 of President Trump's campaign rallies have led to over 30,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and likely led to over 700 deaths.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/18-trump-rallies-have-led-to-30-000-covid-19-cases-stanford-university-study/ar-BB1azK7d?ocid=bingcovid


"On Friday, he drew backlash for claiming that doctors are improperly counting coronavirus deaths for personal and monetary gain."

Eric Feigl-Ding MD
FOR F*CK SAKE!!! Trump just picked the wrong goddamn fight trying to blame doctors for “phony” #COVID19 diagnoses and deaths. Here are over 20+ doctors who have **DIED ON THE FRONTLINES** among almost 2000 healthcare workers who have died.
Trump—you can go to hell after we #VOTE
......................
Cleavon MD  Oct 30
As an Iraq war vet and ER doctor, I risk my life every fucking day at work treating patients with COVID. I'm not asking for a thank you, but I am asking that Trump doesn't lie and disrespect us. I've never seen such a weak draft-dodging coward in my life. He is unfit to lead!!

ruffrecords said:

I would even go to say that I expect lock-down will be to Boris as poll tax was to Maggie.

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I'll raise ya one and say Boris is to Boris as poll tax was to Maggie.

He's not a details person, is rather lazy, and his appeal was mostly just bravado, as evidenced just from his various careers in journalism and as London mayor etc. 
These are not traits that are needed during the present crisis, and also as we get ever closer to being gone from the EU. 
There's been growing unhappiness with him from the Tory back benches for some time now so, 
although there isn't a general election for some 4 years, I expected Boris to leave or be ousted by the party before too long anyway, lockdown or not.

I give him 6 months personally but, maybe I'm wrong?

They call it the "Great Barrington Declaration" to obfuscate the fact that there's nothing great about it.

42 individuals is NOTHING vs. the prevailing scientific consensus, especially among the relevant experts in their fields.

You don't have to look any further than the Wikipedia page to see that the same (kind of) people who fought for Big Tobacco (against public health) and against the science of Climate Change (against the future of humanity) are behind this drivel:

The declaration was sponsored by the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), a libertarian think tank which receives a substantial part of its funding from its own investments, with holdings valued at US$284 million in a wide range of fossil fuel companies including Chevron and ExxonMobil, tobacco giant Philip Morris International, Microsoft, Alphabet Inc. and many other companies.[14][15] Its 2018 revenues were in excess of US$2.2 million[32] and included a US$68,100 donation from the Charles Koch Foundation.[14][33] AIER's network of local "Bastiat Society" chapters partners with the Atlas Network, Ayn Rand Institute, Cato Institute, the Charles Koch Institute, and other Koch-funded think tanks.[15][34] Controversial research funded by AIER in the past includes a study asserting that sweatshops supplying multinationals are beneficial for those working in them,[35] and AIER's statements and publications consistently downplay the risks of climate change, with titles such as "The Real Reason Nobody Takes Environmental Activists Seriously" and "Brazilians Should Keep Slashing Their Rainforest".[14][32]

"Dangerous corporate funded special-interest-based misdirection" would be the correct term for it.

living sounds said:

They call it the "Great Barrington Declaration" to obfuscate the fact that there's nothing great about it.
...
"Dangerous corporate funded special-interest-based misdirection" would be the correct term for it.

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There ya go.  I hadn't researched it to that extent but, I just saw no real accompanying evidence so I viewed  it as no more than a "petition".   
I'd be it a massive & reckless gamble for sure to make any serious decisions based upon it.   

Gold said:

My wisdom teeth never came in. I think I’m f**ked.

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I was always none the wiser. Most of my teeth are now also as f**ked as I ever was.

living sounds said:

They call it the "Great Barrington Declaration" to obfuscate the fact that there's nothing great about it.

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NO it is because Great Barrington in the USA is where it was signed. If the word Great in the name is your top criticism then I guess you are already on shaky ground

42 individuals is NOTHING vs. the prevailing scientific consensus, especially among the relevant experts in their fields.

"Dangerous corporate funded special-interest-based misdirection" would be the correct term for it.

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Really?

There are four or five published models of what might happen if there is no lock-down right now and they all predict widely different values for the size of the peak we can expect. They are all created by small numbers of scientists working in universities. They each create a 'model' based on the available data and crunch it a particular manner to produce a 'prediction'. The wide range of results these 'models' produce admirably demonstrates that there is NO scientific consensus.

Cheers

Ian

While it is standard cancel culture policy to attack people rather than ideas the GB declaration is not a total plan but list of "ideas" to consider.

JR

PS: IIRC when I first shared mention of this, the website I linked to was dismissed as conspiracy nuts.

ruffrecords said:

There are four or five published models of what might happen if there is no lock-down right now and they all predict widely different values for the size of the peak we can expect. They are all created by small numbers of scientists working in universities. They each create a 'model' based on the available data and crunch it a particular manner to produce a 'prediction'. The wide range of results these 'models' produce admirably demonstrates that there is NO scientific consensus.

Cheers

Ian

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Models usually have slightly different results. The relevant question is "How big is the difference?"

Science can't always have a consensus in this case, because there are too many unknown factors.

No consensus also doesn't equal "completely wrong". It must be hard for the people responsible to simply get to a decision in these circumstances. Would you prefer them to err on the side of caution in this case?

cyrano said:

Models usually have slightly different results. The relevant question is "How big is the difference?"

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At least 2:1 in magnitude and shaped ranging from under damped to over-damped

Science can't always have a consensus in this case, because there are too many unknown factors.

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And too little data and even less understanding.

No consensus also doesn't equal "completely wrong". It must be hard for the people responsible to simply get to a decision in these circumstances. Would you prefer them to err on the side of caution in this case?

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Define caution. One the one hand, thousands of people may die of Covid, on the other hand thousands may die because they have not or cannot receive medical attention and at the same time our economies are destroyed. I agree it is a tough decision but at the moment I think the balance is skewed towards minimising Covid no matter the cost. IMHO this is wrong.

Cheers

Ian

ruffrecords said:

Define caution. One the one hand, thousands of people may die of Covid, on the other hand thousands may die because they have not or cannot receive medical attention and at the same time our economies are destroyed.

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Just to make sure we're running off current data, hundreds of thousands of people have already died.

Scodiddly said:

Just to make sure we're running off current data, hundreds of thousands of people have already died.

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I agree we need to run off current data which shows deaths from all causes, not just Covid. Right now, at this time of year, Covid is way down the list of causes of deaths. The more we concentrate on Covid, the less we concentrate on the things that cause far more deaths than Covid.

Just to out this into context, in 2019 when there was no Covid, in England and Wales there were over half a million deaths. That is nearly 10,000 a week. The leading cause of death was Dementia and Alzheimers at about 16% . That is 80,000 deaths or more than 1500 a week. This is interesting because the most common pre-existing health condition of patients who died after testing positive for Covid was  Dementia and Alzheimers. Between the middle of June and the middle of October, the governments own statistics show that many more people died of influenza and pneumonia than had Covid when they died.

The UK government's current lock-down is based on the worst of all the models which predicts Covid related deaths will peak at 2500 a week . That is 10% of the peak recorded back in April when we were in lock-down. Of the deaths that occurred in April, over 90% involved a pre-existing conditions and 90% were of people aged 65 or over. There were hardly any Covid deaths in the working population age group.

So, from the government's own data, it looks very much like we should let the working population get on with their lives and ensure we protect everyone over 65 or with a pre-existing condition.

Cheers

Ian