JohnRoberts

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1120 on: November 28, 2020, 04:29:41 PM »
if people would swim in raw sewage once a year, then we would have herd immunity from everything.

even lo temp burgers from J Box.
I will assume you are kidding...
===
When I was a young kid I was teased for eating dirt...  I should be cool then.  ;D

JR 
It's nice to be nice....


hodad

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1121 on: November 28, 2020, 05:54:21 PM »
there is some new drama about covid fatality statistics.

A John's Hopkins economist (Genevieve Briand) reported that routine deaths have been reclassified as Covid, inflating the COVID numbers.

JR
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR0EVA8IwN8E5GG8rGb-FmMP0I9AJCgPUJZCdPbM5MqOn7NmUjKD7eutOnk

You can read why they chose to withdraw it, and you can also read the original article if you follow a link in this article.  Not really sure her claims are all that worthy of debate when it seems to be supported by falsehoods.

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1122 on: November 28, 2020, 06:10:11 PM »
We've been Bog jumping in Ireland for generations , maybe there is an element of truth to what CJ is saying ,

https://youtu.be/q2MoonRYl8g

JohnRoberts

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1123 on: November 28, 2020, 06:17:07 PM »
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR0EVA8IwN8E5GG8rGb-FmMP0I9AJCgPUJZCdPbM5MqOn7NmUjKD7eutOnk

You can read why they chose to withdraw it, and you can also read the original article if you follow a link in this article.  Not really sure her claims are all that worthy of debate when it seems to be supported by falsehoods.
Thanks but I already have...

Dismissing and/or suppressing opinions you don't agree with only feeds the conspiracy nuts who already distrust the MSM.

It is the nature of economists to draw different conclusions from the same data set... I looked into "all cause" death rates for before and after COVID several months ago but the data was hard to compare, and did not offer any obvious fruit.

It seems healthy to consider other viewpoints.

JR
« Last Edit: November 28, 2020, 09:04:12 PM by JohnRoberts »
It's nice to be nice....

scott2000

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1124 on: November 28, 2020, 06:32:59 PM »

Not really sure her claims are all that worthy of debate when it seems to be supported by falsehoods.

Thanks for the link. I haven't looked at the original article yet but it seems they gave it a fair shake apart from the wild claims of no excess deaths.
 Mentioning that she isn't an epidemiologist could make one think that it gives more weight to her analysis depending on if her specialty is more suited to studying data.?
I've been curious about how these are figured and it's interesting to follow the data closely.

The thresholds for average expected deaths and the higher expected numbers ,along with the predicted number of deaths change every update even as far back as 2017 afaik which is interesting.

Another interesting thing is the averaging used...

Here's A silly hypothetical example but it adds up for every state especially as you break down the individual weeks. There are clearly excesses but, how accurate are their numbers at this stage and what could they look like if other methods and variables were introduced......

Alzheimers:

week 1      2015- 1 death
                     2016- 2 deaths
                     2017- 3 deaths
                     2018- 4 deaths
                    2019- 5 deaths
           
       Average expected is 3 deaths for 2020 ???
                    2020- 6 deaths..

This is the method they use afaik... so comparing to an average of 3 deaths  looks worse than what maybe a different approach may... .  I don't know how they are factoring in population growth , especially since there are many more ageing people and it's a fairly recent trend that is going up and up.... states know this and have been addressing these issues in recent times.... like this mention... and there are many more across the nation/world ....

https://news.utexas.edu/2018/05/04/aging-population-will-cause-significant-strain-for-texas/




« Last Edit: November 28, 2020, 06:56:22 PM by scott2000 »

crazydoc

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1125 on: November 28, 2020, 06:46:17 PM »
I've got pandemic fatigue. Nothing I can do, except avoiding people, can change the effect of this disease on me or anyone else. Though I live in a low population county, there are 70% Trumpsters here, and mitigation measures seem to be of the same ratio, so I expect things to explode (here and everywhere) in the next two months.

Active community cases have gone from 10 to 200 in the last month. There are 2 state and one federal prisons in the county - active inmate cases are at 700+, total inmate cases 1400+, and prison employee active cases 120. Since most of the prison employees live in the county, I expect most of the community cases derive from them, their families and contacts.

I've tried to get information about the demographic origens of the county cases (businesses, family and other gatherings, out of county visitors, prison staff, etc. - nothing to violate individual privacy) for the last several months. Emails to county supervisor and local paper with no results. Phone calls to county public health unanswered until two weeks ago, when I was told they could not give me that information.

So I'm on my own, and the only way to protect myself and my household (all of us old and with multiple comorbidities) is to hunker down and limit exposure to other people. I am lucky to be retired and to live in a low population area where this is possible. I expect many of you have it a lot worse - I'm sorry for that.

I am reminded of a song from my daughter's punk band days (she was the vocalist who's job it was to shout obscenities). This is from the world to me, and back atcha:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LdYXYNtPJI
Luckily, there is more than one way to skin a cat.
The secret of happiness is having low expectations.

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1126 on: November 28, 2020, 07:48:12 PM »
I enjoyed that musical interlude Doc, reminded of the dead kennedys a bit for some reason

JohnRoberts

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1127 on: November 28, 2020, 09:06:20 PM »
get well...

I am sure you are pondering the mechanisms.

Good luck

JR
It's nice to be nice....

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1128 on: November 29, 2020, 01:08:08 AM »
We have our fair share of covidiots here in the UK too.  Several, in the interests of "balance and fairness" get to spout nonsense on TV.
We'll have a 45 second segment where an epidemiologist distills a lifetime's of experience and knowledge into bite size bits of layman's language, and then it's "over to Halifax where we speak with Bob the plumber regarding his thoughts on masks... "   ?

Other than a week or so spent at my girlfriend's place, I don't leave the house, unless it's before dawn when the idiots are still in bed.

Take care Doc, John, everyone, we'll get through this
D. J. H.

scott2000

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1129 on: November 29, 2020, 08:23:19 AM »
I guess it depends on which plumber you talk to . Besides, plumbers would've been good back in the nastier days of plagues I'd guess...lol

Here's the webinar of that disputed John's Hopkins piece. Pretty interesting take on stuff but it leaves many questions for sure.....

https://www.advancenz.org.nz/johnshopkins

One thing I don't understand, among many others, is something like the upper bound expected deaths...
one example....

3rd week Jan

2017---61521 expected
2018---62599 expected
2019---64930 expected
2020---62585 expected

even the graph can be confusing depending on how you look at it....

I did a quick thing  grabbing the first week in April for all the years as one reference and it just looks weird....Must be doing something wrong and it still doesn't explain the excesses.... Would just be nice if things weren't obviously goofy in some regards.....



Re: covid politics
« Reply #1130 on: November 29, 2020, 09:10:20 AM »
I guess it depends on which plumber you talk to . Besides, plumbers would've been good back in the nastier days of plagues I'd guess...lol

Haha  :D  It's possible that most of us commoners didn't even know what a plumber was during the 1665/1666 bubonic plague.  I seem to recall something about us just throwing our buckets of bodily "leavings" out of the upstairs window into the street below.  Heads of passers-by below be damned!
D. J. H.

JohnRoberts

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1131 on: November 29, 2020, 10:31:05 AM »
I guess it depends on which plumber you talk to . Besides, plumbers would've been good back in the nastier days of plagues I'd guess...lol

Here's the webinar of that disputed John's Hopkins piece. Pretty interesting take on stuff but it leaves many questions for sure.....

https://www.advancenz.org.nz/johnshopkins

One thing I don't understand, among many others, is something like the upper bound expected deaths...
one example....

3rd week Jan

2017---61521 expected
2018---62599 expected
2019---64930 expected
2020---62585 expected

even the graph can be confusing depending on how you look at it....

I did a quick thing  grabbing the first week in April for all the years as one reference and it just looks weird....Must be doing something wrong and it still doesn't explain the excesses.... Would just be nice if things weren't obviously goofy in some regards.....
Lies, damn lies, and statistics....   8)

I tried to look at "all cause" mortality, pre and post Covid a few months ago and didn't find clear easily comparable results. She had to crunch together different data sets to assemble hers. 

I am not suggesting to take one economist study as definitive proof of anything (as the old joke goes, ask two economists a question and they will give you three answers), but let's not just arbitrarily hide and suppress everything we don't like. That does not instill public confidence.

JR
It's nice to be nice....

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1132 on: November 29, 2020, 01:42:18 PM »
What we've seen here in Ireland since Covid is many routine screening procedures for diseases such as cancer grind to halt , on top of that people are avoiding reporting health issues that they might otherwise have done due to fear of contracting covid in a healthcare setting. This is bound to lead to a bump in numbers which if not accounted for might appear to be attributable to covid or could even overtake the numbers of deaths due to covid in the longer term , how can we actually tell if the prevention/cure methodology is causing more harm than the disease itself. If it did turn out more harm than good was caused I have no confidence the political or medical establishment would own up to it ,as it would almost certainly result in a career ending checkmate manuvre. History shows us plenty of ocassions where political and medical have stood back to back and covered up atrocities. The system here is already pre-wired for a cover up.

scott2000

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1133 on: November 29, 2020, 05:31:26 PM »


I tried to look at "all cause" mortality, pre and post Covid a few months ago and didn't find clear easily comparable results. She had to crunch together different data sets to assemble hers. 



Yes. Her showing how all cause definitely dipped when there was a peak in deaths was weird. Not sure it's easily explained without some imagination.

I stumbled across the fact that the charts on the cdc site are actually drag and select interactive of sorts. You can even go to the site where they are developed I guess.. Pretty neat and it lets you view a nice data set when you select areas. I was able to see where my confusion was with the graph earlier. Seems they are simply getting tighter this year with their guesstimations...

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dataviz8737#!/vizhome/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_11252020/WeeklyExcessDeaths


also found this on there with some nice graphs.. Interesting how alzheimers jumped from 2014 to 15 and is holding...unintentional deaths too whatever that is....

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dataviz8737#!/vizhome/Leadingcausesofdeath1999-2017vBB2/Leadingcausesofdeath




Script

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1134 on: November 29, 2020, 11:38:22 PM »
In Japan, in April, the total number of deaths was clearly DOWN compared to previous years, despite people dieing from Covid. Only explanation : people complied and stayed home, meaning less traffic accidents etc etc

However, with the economic fallout, the number of suicides here have risen over the year, hiting a new all-time high now. More women than men, btw. However, the role and position of women in Japanese society (highly burdened and politically neglected) differs from that in the US, so not easily comparable.

scott2000

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1135 on: November 30, 2020, 06:42:02 AM »

However, with the economic fallout, the number of suicides here have risen over the year, hiting a new all-time high now. More women than men, btw. However, the role and position of women in Japanese society (highly burdened and politically neglected) differs from that in the US, so not easily comparable.

Sad...Yes I think suicides were already on the rise here so it'll be informative to know if it gets worse.

They haven't released 2019 total death numbers yet afaik but 2018 was at 2,839,205. A slight increase  from 2017 if I'm understanding the data.

So far the reporting has us at 2,590,780 for all cause reported afaik and it's going to get worse real fast if I had to guess.

Btw...Is it true that there is some ceremonial place where people go to jump off a cliff or something there? I heard something along those line not too long ago but it may have been somewhere else....Or just an urban myth....

Script

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1136 on: November 30, 2020, 08:04:50 AM »
Sad, yes, indeed.

Oh and you mean Tojinbo. Really beautiful, scenic spot. Basalt cliffs towering at almost 90 degrees. Visited several times en route. Sad notoriety though. You always come across fresh flowers in more secluded corners.

Btw I have to correct myself. Not new all-time high in suicides in Japan but steep rise and highest since 2003 or so, i.e. aftermath of bubble burst. Japan has always been high in suicides though. Now rising again. Not good.

One effect this pandamic has had is to make all sorts of problems  that loomed before all the more transparent. Let's hope it's for the better in the long run.

Numbers of infections have doubled / tripled in very short time here. It's the colder weather. Closing in on meat processing plant-like atmosphere as natural outside climate, especially during commuting hours. Not good.

Vaccines are on the way. It'll still take some time though, but let's hope that in six months we can start to return to more 'normal' lives again. Until then, everybody living in cold winter areas in particular,  please be extra vigilant and protective of yourselves and others.

Looking forward to Xmas

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1137 on: November 30, 2020, 08:14:43 AM »
Easy to understand how suicides are up anywhere covid restrictions have been implemented.For years in Ireland serious questions about how the stats are arrived at go unanswered , it seems at times deaths are attributed to accidental or misadventure where in any other country they would be counted as suicide.

The Japanese culture seems to have suicide as a honorable way out built in for thousands of years , the short sword and all that . I did hear of one story from a friend who worked in Japan for a few years , a fellow scientist in his lab who wasnt far off retirement and wasnt so popular with the younger generation got wind his contract wouldnt be renewed , they arrived into work early one morning only to find the guy dead as a dodo.

Lies, damn lies and statistics seems about right , its open to interpretation on every level making it very difficult to know if comparisons are like for like . If the actual covid virus wasnt discovered would many deaths simply have been attributed to pneumonia , likewise certain baseline assumptions in the modeling without a true measure of herd immunity pre and post covid seems like it certainly could scew things if the favour of fear panic and overreaction, media does love to whip up a frenzy after all ,it sells copy.   

crazydoc

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1138 on: December 01, 2020, 01:07:00 PM »

This too will pass... I predict things will get a lot better (at least the news about it) after the election no matter who wins.

JR
Great insight!  ::)

I predict that no matter what the future holds, the covid sh*t is really, really going to hit the fan until the inauguration when Biden takes over, vaccine or not. (Of course, Biden taking over really is unrelated to this - it's just a convenient measure of time. :D )   
Luckily, there is more than one way to skin a cat.
The secret of happiness is having low expectations.

JohnRoberts

Re: covid politics
« Reply #1139 on: December 02, 2020, 09:36:16 AM »
Great insight!  ::)

I predict that no matter what the future holds, the covid sh*t is really, really going to hit the fan until the inauguration when Biden takes over, vaccine or not. (Of course, Biden taking over really is unrelated to this - it's just a convenient measure of time. :D )
The medical community is predicting a timeline for the end game, sometime next year, but i wouldn't be surprised for this to become a chronic Flu like disease that requires repeat immunizations every few years, forever.... (a cash cow to reward drug makers for their effort).

The good news is that an end is in sight, the bad news is we can still get sick between now and then so continue hand washing, mask wearing, and social distancing, especially this winter when such infections rise.

Now the political drama is over who gets vaccinated first.

Frontline health workers is a no brainer and that will eat up most of the first 20 odd million doses. Next is nursing home residents which seems like more of an emotional choice than economic value of years left to live. Of course this is the classic conundrum about rationing limited health care resources.
====
News media historically tries to scare viewers into watching/reading, "If it bleeds it leads"...  Add to that the political campaign strategy to pin covid on potus, with full throated support from mainstream media.

I repeat this too will pass...  but I can't predict exactly when. Soon enough I hope.

JR
It's nice to be nice....


 

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