cyrano

One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« on: April 19, 2020, 03:46:29 PM »
Why is it people love to believe and hate to know?


scott2000

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2020, 04:33:53 PM »
Yeah I saw this too. Don't know what to make of it either.....

Couldn't make out the testing time.... or times..... You'd think it would've gotten a hit ....

The policing everywhere is getting bizarre...

JohnRoberts

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2020, 05:51:08 PM »
I'm shocked....

JR

PS: as I shared elsewhere, the Chinese just about doubled the number of deaths reported  in Wuhan.... oops

Heard some scary but unconfirmed numbers of less cell phone accts now vs before.
It's nice to be nice....

ruairioflaherty

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2020, 06:00:45 PM »
There's probably a number of reasons not to trust the numbers  :P

This one, however, had me stumped:

https://reason.com/2020/04/17/a-teenager-posted-about-her-covid-19-infection-on-instagram-a-deputy-threatened-to-arrest-her-if-she-didnt-delete-it/

Nothing unusual in this. Again we are back to the perverse incentives in place in so many of our institutions. 

About 15 months ago my house was broken into over New Years while we were out of town visiting family.  Our rear patio glass was kicked in.  A garden chair was clearly moved to a position to allow the offenders to jump my garden fence when leaving.  Inside the house drawers were pulled open and clearly had been searched.

A Pasadena Sheriff Deputy came to the crime scene and tried to convince me that but was the wind that had done all of this.  It was absolutely insane.

There was very little chance of catching the criminals, but zero effort was made to look for nearby surveillance footage, finger prints etc.  He was clearly under orders to minimize reported crime.


 

cyrano

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2020, 07:00:43 PM »
Yeah, some officers are extremely good at avoiding work.  ::)

Still, this case is threatening people to make them actively change the facts. Different, I'd say?

A friend got his expensive car radio stolen, years ago. Police told him he'd have to pay for towing- and lab expenses, if he wanted the car fingerprinted.

He had theft insurance, so he called them. The insurance refused to pay these expenses, but paid for the kit. Of course, today car radios no longer get stolen, as they are useless after theft, because of the security code needed.
Why is it people love to believe and hate to know?

john12ax7

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2020, 07:04:40 PM »
That is rather appalling police behavior.  Can you formally complain to higher ups?  News stations can do a good job with these things as well.

Years ago my old car got side swiped overnight. The police shrugged their shoulders saying most people in that neighborhood didn't have insurance anyway so nothing they could do.

How about investigators actually investigate things?

john12ax7

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2020, 07:06:02 PM »
At the other end are overzealous officers making the situation worse

https://abcnews.go.com/US/police-officer-arrested-park-throwing-ball-daughter-due/story?id=70032966

scott2000

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2020, 07:58:05 PM »
India's policing is getting wild.....Whacking people with batons and making them do calisthenics on the side of the road...
...


living sounds

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #8 on: April 20, 2020, 08:31:53 AM »
There's probably a number of reasons not to trust the numbers  :P

This one, however, hd me stumped:

https://reason.com/2020/04/17/a-teenager-posted-about-her-covid-19-infection-on-instagram-a-deputy-threatened-to-arrest-her-if-she-didnt-delete-it/

"Land of the free"... isn't it ironic?

scott2000

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2020, 09:47:16 AM »
"Land of the free"... isn't it ironic?

Glad you think it's cause for the same old crap people have been spewing that's leading to this around the world

WATCH Berlin police forcefully disperse unsanctioned protest against coronavirus lockdown

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcErJT3lKEo&feature=emb_logo


living sounds

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2020, 11:11:06 AM »
Glad you think it's cause for the same old crap people have been spewing that's leading to this around the world

WATCH Berlin police forcefully disperse unsanctioned protest against coronavirus lockdown

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcErJT3lKEo&feature=emb_logo

I think it is something else to visit a girl at home and tell her to remove a post in order to keep the (fictional) official numbers down. Way more irrational and authoritarian than to dissolve a gathering of people lacking a concept to prevent the spread of the virus.

The people demonstrating at the moment in western democracies are overwhelmingly the usual nutjobs (conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers, rightwing as well as leftwing extremists etc.). Still, they have a right to demonstrate, but only in a way that minimizes the danger of spreading the virus. The Federal Constitutional Court of Germany (our Supreme Court for constitutional matters) just made clear that demonstrations cannot be banned at will by the authorities.

scott2000

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2020, 11:20:18 AM »
I agree.

But, I'm not sure of all the specifics with the story and regardless if it's some kid looking for attention or not, I think police over reach is unacceptable.....

Greenville, MS every police officer at a church to shut down a DRIVE UP church service

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoRp87HauwQ


Yeah, the Government in MS changed their minds too.....






JohnRoberts

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #12 on: April 20, 2020, 11:35:42 AM »
Yeah, some officers are extremely good at avoiding work.  ::)

Still, this case is threatening people to make them actively change the facts. Different, I'd say?

A friend got his expensive car radio stolen, years ago. Police told him he'd have to pay for towing- and lab expenses, if he wanted the car fingerprinted.

He had theft insurance, so he called them. The insurance refused to pay these expenses, but paid for the kit. Of course, today car radios no longer get stolen, as they are useless after theft, because of the security code needed.
Not sure what this has to do with COVID, but perhaps police are not enthusiastic about even more person to person interactions.

Quote from: wiki
The Los Angeles Police Department has suffered from chronic underfunding and under-staffing in recent years.[72] Compared to most other major cities in the United States, and though it is the third largest police department in the country, Los Angeles has historically had one of the lowest ratios of police personnel to population served.[72] Former police chief William J. Bratton made enlarging the department one of his top priorities (Bratton has been quoted as saying, "You give me 4,000 more officers and I'll give you the safest city in the world").[73]
Los Angeles has one police officer for every 426 residents.[72] As a point of comparison, New York City has one police officer for every 228 residents.[72] For Los Angeles to have the same ratio of officers to residents as New York City, the LAPD would need to have nearly 17,000 officers. Further points of comparison include Chicago, which has a ratio of one officer per 216 citizens and Philadelphia, whose officer per citizen ratio is 1 to 219.[72]
In recent years, the department had been conducting a massive recruiting effort, with a goal of hiring an additional 1,500 police officers. The city has three specialized agencies, not affiliated with the LAPD directly, which serve the Port, the Airport, and the Unified School District.
===
Quote from: www
The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department has reduced its inmate population by 6% in the last three weeks and Dist. Atty. Jackie Lacey said her office would consider reducing bail for thousands of nonviolent offenders.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/california-releases-more-jail-inmates-amid-coronavirus-crisis

Officers may not be enthusiastic about catch and release for less than felony crimes.

===
I am too lazy to search out more references but seem to recall increase in petit crimes (like breaking into cars) in San Francisco when police and DA relaxed aggressive policing of street people.  (sorry for a too simple answer).

====

I have been robbed several times over the years and do not recall ever having a very satisfactory result from police regarding non-violent property crimes. For yet another personal anecdote, one time at a NAMM show in Chicago (last century), me and my hotel roommate were robbed while we slept. This was back when hotels still used physical keys, and this miscreant apparently got ahold of a spare key to our room.  The house detective accused us of inviting a hooker to our room and falling asleep... loser.  Of course this was a life lesson about using the door chain backup lock, since that lesson I always use the chain.

I was most disappointed about losing my money clip that was my dead father's. Cash is replaceable.
==
I am generally supportive of police and all first responders, that have a difficult job with limited resources, even harder these days. I wouldn't want to do that job. Of course there are bad apples in any profession but the vast majority are good people.

JR

PS: It is not that unusual for people in power to suffer from bad judgement and over reach, even with good intentions (several state governors are getting pushback for overly restrictive policies). Almost on topic the current debate about reopening the economy involves tension between maximum safety, and best overall long term outcome.
It's nice to be nice....

pucho812

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #13 on: April 20, 2020, 02:15:20 PM »
in NY(New York) state they had 3700 die in one day.  The state publicly announced that all 3700 were covid related. They were not going to test, there is no need for testing they presumed it was covid and that was good enough for them.  things like that do not help the cause either.
You tell me whar a man gits his corn pone, en I'll tell you what his 'pinions is.

JohnRoberts

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #14 on: April 20, 2020, 03:36:44 PM »
at this point testing the living for immunity or infection is much more useful.

The understated early infection data from China led health professionals to underestimate the severity of the virus.

JR 
It's nice to be nice....

scott2000

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #15 on: April 20, 2020, 03:42:52 PM »
Quote
at this point testing the living for immunity or infection is much more useful.


Will they be Using infection numbers to increase lock down time?Once the number of cases drops, then the lock down phases begin? Or am I not understanding...

JohnRoberts

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #16 on: April 20, 2020, 03:56:45 PM »
Will they be Using infection numbers to increase lock down time?Once the number of cases drops, then the lock down phases begin? Or am I not understanding...
we need to understand who is immune to get them back to work... those at risk who have no immunity (antibodies) need to continue sheltering and heavy PPE.

JR
It's nice to be nice....

scott2000

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #17 on: April 20, 2020, 05:53:02 PM »
Quote
we need to understand who is immune to get them back to work... those at risk who have no immunity (antibodies) need to continue sheltering and heavy PPE.


cool... What could go wrong there? Just a bunch of tests and numbers... I feel better now.....

It's not like we're voting ..... That would be important.....

cyrano

Re: One of the reasons the COVID-19 numbers are wrong...
« Reply #18 on: April 20, 2020, 06:34:41 PM »
The understated early infection data from China led health professionals to underestimate the severity of the virus.

Those shouldn't perhaps be called "professionals". Theu should know that very early numbers can't be trusted...

Hec, even today's numbers are not trustworthy, from a scientific point of view, as literally nobody is adhering to standards the WHO tried to set. Not that I'd blame any as the situation requires a lot of improvisation in the light of availibility of tests and local sensitivities.
Why is it people love to believe and hate to know?


 

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