Energy supplies

[Brian Roth]

I've been chatting back and forth with Mom and a couple of my remaining relatives about the recent huge energy price spikes in the region. 

Rereading my last email to them, I thought it might be fodder for conversation here.  Here was what I sent them:


I agree that random government tinkering in the economy results in consequences, often nefarious, often unforeseen.

After the debacle in our region, I hope some investigations will reveal WHO made the billion$ over a few days of extreme demand for energy. Someone, somewhere, made out like a bandit.  I tend to think that "crony capitalism" (where the fatcats are "in bed" with the politicians) was a significant part.  I also believe there was price-gouging by speculators.  Remember Enron?

We "peons" will be paying the price.  Remember that line from the movie All the President's Men?  "Follow the money".  Another movie quote "Greed is good".

Coming from a family involved in natural gas and oil production and distribution, I have NO dislike at all for the industry.  What I hate are other forces that manipulate the markets, including the government, to the detriment of folks like us.

I definitely favor capitalism: I am not a "commie tree-hugger" <g>.  But there need to be checks and balances.  I'm a bit of a history buff. Read back through late 1800's history with all the trusts and robber barons.  And did I mention Enron?  lol

I sure wish that Dad was still alive so we could kick ideas back and forth!  Alas, I'm on my own separating wheat from chaff.

As for green energy, I am a hopeful fan of new inventions, but I have no starry-eyed visions for the short term.  Wind farms are a fascinating development (aided by government subsidies) that should reduce dependence on the "dead dinosaurs" pulled from the ground.

Looking at the latest pie chart from the Southwest Power Pool:

https://marketplace.spp.org/pages/generation-mix

......more electric power in our region is currently coming at this moment from wind than any other source!  Hurrah!

Problem with wind and solar is that it varies greatly and there is no CURRENTLY feasible/economical way to store it for the "rainy day".

New battery technology will be a game changer.

Bri

 

[user 37518]

Dear Bri, I have done my research, renewable AKA green energies are a very "romantic" idea, yes you can drastically reduce the power consumption of a house with some solar panels, supplying the required power for an entire city or a country is a whole different thing. I've read, watched videos, etc, and I am deeply convinced that the only way for the clean energy crisis is nuclear power, the French have already reached the same conclusion and they are building more and more nuclear plants, they are second in the amount of nuclear plants only after the US. Nowadays the trend is to use what scientists call "micro reactors" or something like that, they are nuclear reactors but much smaller, easier to cool down, and in case of a disaster, less likely to cause a big catastrophe. IMHO that is the future, not some windmills in the middle of no where or 100 acres of solar panels in the California desert.

Now, the question is, what will NATO think about the whole world making their own nuclear plants? after all, the spent fuel from a uranium reactor creates plutonium among other things, which is  used for nuclear weapons, who will be allowed to have nuclear plants and who will not? Here in Mexico we have a couple of reactors with plans of building more, and AFAIK we give the US all of our spent fuel just in case, hahahaha but I don't know If Iran, Saudi Arabia or Syria will think the same way.... what about Israel, they don't have any nuclear plants and claim to have zero nuclear weapons... yeah right...

 

[john12ax7]

Most places have laws against price gouging,  but not sure how Texas works specifically. The other disturbing part was money was apparently removed directly from people's accounts.  For capitalism to work properly there needs to be up front transparency to transactions and explicit consent in non-duress situations.

I've heard arguments for nuclear before,  but they were from nuclear physicists so could be some bias there.  There has also been a wave in the financial community as of late touting uranium as an investment for the next decade.

 

[Brian Roth]

Latest pie chart from the "sub grid" in my region (updated every 15 mins):

https://marketplace.spp.org/pages/generation-mix

HURRAH!!

Almost 50% is from wind at this moment!  When we had the Polar Vortex last week, the supplies were mostly all coal and nat. gas as the wind farms went offline.

We need a butt-load <g> of batteries to store that energy.
Bri

 

[Brian Roth]

Most places have laws against price gouging,  but not sure how Texas works specifically. The other disturbing part was money was apparently removed directly from people's accounts.  For capitalism to work properly there needs to be up front transparency to transactions and explicit consent in non-duress situations.

I've heard arguments for nuclear before,  but they were from nuclear physicists so could be some bias there.  There has also been a wave in the financial community as of late touting uranium as an investment for the next decade.

I'm not in Texas but the effects impacted me and Mom here in KS and OK.  In both states, the gas and electric companies apparently took a billion dollars of a "hit" for a few days of stupidly low temps and are asking the regulation commissions for relief.  Hence bills will increase for years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WCFUGCOLLU

Bri

 

[Brian Roth]

Apparently France has figured out how to harness nuclear power and come up with a way to deal with the waste. 

In the USA nuke power is a "no go".

Bri

 

[user 37518]

Apparently France has figured out how to harness nuclear power and come up with a way to deal with the waste. 

In the USA nuke power is a "no go".

Bri

Bri, you should read this https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/5-fast-facts-about-spent-nuclear-fuel#:~:text=Used%20nuclear%20fuel%20can%20be,%2C%20such%20as%20France%2C%20do., some important quotes are:

"the U.S. has produced roughly 83,000 metrics tons of used fuel since the 1950s—and all of it could fit on a single football field at a depth of less than 10 yards."


"Used nuclear fuel can be recycled to make new fuel and byproducts.

More than 90% of its potential energy still remains in the fuel, even after five years of operation in a reactor.

The United States does not currently recycle used nuclear fuel but foreign countries, such as France, do.

There are also some advanced reactor designs in development that could consume or run on used nuclear fuel in the future."

 

[john12ax7]

I'm not in Texas but the effects impacted me and Mom here in KS and OK.  In both states, the gas and electric companies apparently took a billion dollars of a "hit" for a few days of stupidly low temps and are asking the regulation commissions for relief.  Hence bills will increase for years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WCFUGCOLLU

Bri

How much were the price spikes in KS and OK? I mentioned Texas because there I heard $10k+ was getting taken out of people's bank accounts, which is beyond ridiculous.

 

[Brian Roth]

How much were the price spikes in KS and OK? I mentioned Texas because there I heard $10k+ was getting taken out of people's bank accounts, which is beyond ridiculous.

As I was worrying about keeping "warm enough" to keep the house's water pipes above freezing, along (with Mom in OK) about outages, I was on a "mission" to know all the complex workings of the regulated utilities.

Sidebar....I cranked my thermostat back to 60.  Mom at age 91 can't tolerate extremes....she cranked back from 78 to 70.  The gas companies put out a dire warning (paraphrased) via email and texts:"Seriously reduce consumption, or else we will be forced shut down all supply.  If that happens, you will have no gas for weeks, since we will have to go from house to house to look for leaks and re-light the pilot lights in the appliances."  Again....paraphrased.  I think I have exact wordings on file here.

ANYWAY....as I was watching the mayhem and trying to better understanding the utilities as well as watching "spot market" prices.... I was shocked.

Bottom line...ONG (OK) and KGS (KS) have each already asked our regulators for a billion dollar rate increase "spread over 10 years".  Evergy (KS) and OGE (OK)....the same request.

Several days of insanely cold temps....a billion dollars apiece for gas and electric here, and in Okla.

Something seems haywire to me.  I wish I was a "robber baron".

One site I was closely watching was/is SPP (Southwest Power Pool) which "controls" the grid in the region from N. Dakota down through KS into OK and parts of W. Texas.  We are part of the "Eastern Interconnect".

I like this pie chart, just updated:

https://marketplace.spp.org/pages/generation-mix

Wind, Baby!  lol  Last week coal and gas were huge slices of that pie chart.

Now we need a BUTTLOAD of Diehard batteries to store the wind power for that Rainy Day.

Bri

 

[scott2000]

When driving across the US it was pretty incredible to see the size of these windmills. And the massive amounts of land they took up. CA and Texas seemed to have them in areas that probably wouldn't make for any other good use because of the terrain. Not sure some areas would be as good a fit.

Looking real quick I see some numbers like 20 to 30sq miles of windmills  powering 30000 or so homes on average for a year....

Is there an average of land necessity to power capability to get an idea of what this looks like??

Kansas has a few wind farms for sure...

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1SVt9R5RHww2sVlJ7LfxaEc0tKus&ll=37.14499233158883%2C-96.3789367578125&z=6


Heard about Bill Gates now being the largest private farmland owner in the US ...thought it sounded strange but maybe it will have something to do with renewables....??

https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-land-portfolio-biggest-private-farmland-owner-in-america-2021-1?op=1

Seems he's backing this company...pretty neat...

https://heliogen.com/

 

[JohnRoberts]

Apparently France has figured out how to harness nuclear power and come up with a way to deal with the waste. 

France has been invested in using nuclear power for decades, and so far they have not been scared away by sundry accidents. Germany alternately has decommissioned nuclear plants, increasing reliance on coal for when the sun don't shine, and wind don't blow.. 

Nuclear technology has advanced well beyond the technology France used/is using. Last I checked India is working on the newer nuclear energy cycles. Modern reactors are also designed to be self quenching so they don't need power to shut down safely.

In the USA nuke power is a "no go".

Bri

The American public are easily scared, and new US nuclear power plant projects have been effectively smothered by regulatory costs.  In 2017 Toshiba's Westinghouse division that was working on a couple nuclear power plants declared bankruptcy after suffering a $12B loss.  This is not unlike the massive cost overruns suffered by my local clean coal power plant due to regulatory issues (avoided by burning NG instead of coal).

Inexplicably the anti-carbon climate warriors refuse to embrace a zero-carbon energy source, like nuclear.

===

There is a fast thinking/slow thinking explanation for the public's fear and loathing surrounding nuclear energy. The (fast thinking) snap judgement associates nuclear power with negative events/outcomes, not the benefits revealed by thoughtful (slow thinking) analysis.

Think slow folks...

JR