How long until live entertainment with audiences again - ever?

[AusTex64]

I have earned my living from the entertainment business my entire career - musician, technician, recording engineer, product developer, now business owner. I co-own a company that provides very high level repairs for automated lights. Our customers are cruise ships, theme parks, schools, churches, concerts, A/V companies - crowds. Was listening to music while walking today and a live recording came on that started with applause. How long will it be before we ever hear that sound again? Perhaps some insight here: http://blogs.shu.edu/sportspoll/2020/04/09/nearly-3-of-4-americans-say-they-wont-attend-games-without-coronavirus-vaccine-developed/  I would bet substituting "concerts" or "theatre" for "games" would yield a similar result.

Even when social distancing is relaxed (I pray not before robust testing and contact testing has been implemented nationally), I just don't see people lining up to stand shoulder to shoulder to hear their favorite bands anytime soon. Especially when people learn that most flu vaccines only offer 40% to 60% effectiveness. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm And BTW, I could not find any evidence that a vaccine for SARS or MERS currently exists. Someone please prove me wrong about that.

At first I thought my company might be able to ride this out through the fall by cutting costs by over half (including staff, unfortunately), getting our PPP loan and using it wisely. Now I'm not so sure that will be remotely long enough. Based upon what I'm reading, it could be a couple of years before shows and cruise ships really start to happen again. If even then, and if so, how much?

I've been very bullish on the entertainment industry for many years, telling students at speaking events and on podcasts that "entertainment is one of the last things people want to buy from the US. Been to any Chinese movies lately? Attended any concerts by Chinese artists with production they brought with them? Entertainment is basically a service business that's hard to outsource to Asia, at least the labor portion." Now, in light of current circumstances, I'm very seriously considering what industry I am going to move to now that entertainment is basically dead in the water? I'm 55 years old with a high school education and no other real experience outside the entertainment business. Maybe selling cars or something?

Hoping one or more of you will explain to me how I'm wrong and how this might work out in a positive fashion for people like me in the live entertainment industry. 'Cause right now it looks pretty bleak to me. Ever read "Who Moved My Cheese?" I'm not going to sit around for a couple of years waiting for the cheese to come back, spending most all my savings/retirement funds to survive in the meantime. I need a plan B & C, methinks.

I look forward to hearing from you smart folks. Thanks.

 

[john12ax7]

It's hard to say for sure,  but I don't think things will fully recover for 1 year plus.  People will still consume entertainment,  but not in the mass gathering way for a while.  So you need to consider how to generate revenue in alternate ways. Things that can be done remotely and then distributed to the public,  online learning,  content creation,  selling  products that serve stay at home people.

It will be a tough road for a lot of people. My future plans have gotten completely upended. The best you can do is look for new opportunities in the changing environment.

 

[scott2000]

Even when social distancing is relaxed (I pray not before robust testing and contact testing has been implemented nationally), I just don't see people lining up to stand shoulder to shoulder to hear their favorite bands anytime soon. Especially when people learn that most flu vaccines only offer 40% to 60% effectiveness. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm And BTW, I could not find any evidence that a vaccine for SARS or MERS currently exists. Someone please prove me wrong about that.

I personally think we can do better than the status quo we've been oblivious to. It's still the vulnerable who are affected the most. Older, unhealthy etc.....

I'm not sure of the A symptomatic deals with all of these flus but, usually people aren't hanging out anywhere when they have symptoms and, although I've seen people mysteriously get sick one after another in the same house or office, I've never seen anyone die ....

A nursing home could be a different story....etc...

I'm still waiting for the goal post on this Covid to be put in. As far as I can tell, they're still talking with the planners on where to build the stadium.....

 

[AusTex64]

It's hard to say for sure,  but I don't think things will fully recover for 1 year plus.  People will still consume entertainment,  but not in the mass gathering way for a while.  So you need to consider how to generate revenue in alternate ways. Things that can be done remotely and then distributed to the public,  online learning,  content creation,  selling  products that serve stay at home people.

It will be a tough road for a lot of people. My future plans have gotten completely upended. The best you can do is look for new opportunities in the changing environment.

I watched a bit of the Academy of Country Music show broadcast last Sunday evening in place of their awards show. Artists mostly lip synced to prerecorded tracks (lame). When they ended the songs, silence. No applause. It was kinda creepy. Actually that gave me hope that online entertainment (music, movies, sports, whatever) is not remotely a replacement for the live entertainment experience. But if the live entertainment experience makes a bunch of people sick, that ain't gonna fly either. We may end up having to settle for online entertainment experiences. You sure don't need a big ass PA for those shows! Then again I have a hard time imagining anything online with nearly the excitement of the roar of the crowd. Regardless, I bet there's some people working on it.

Actually, for better or worse, I think churches will be the first to come back. I'm in Texas, and in the middle of America the church market is by far the largest for production technology. They even have a magazine, aptly titled "Church Production".

 

[bluebird]

I think entertainment and gathering are deeply embedded in our DNA. There's been worse, and I'm positive things will return to normal in the entertainment industry. I feel you though, its hard to accept having an income squeezed, and as (like most people here) I'm a problem solver, I'm quick to start looking for solutions and different directions. But I think it's important to move in parallel with what you are already doing. Just don't throw everything away and start selling cars! Hold on to your current direction as long as you can and branch out from there.  With the skills you have there are so many related things to move into. Most people don't know how to light up an LED with a battery, what you know is actually rare these days. And, there's way too much infrastructure in the biz to just completely collapse and never come back. It may have to be  every other seat in the auditorium for a while but they're not going to actually rip out the middle seat, and before you know it,  someone will sit there... I hope.

 

[john12ax7]

I watched a bit of ACM too, also agree that nothing really replaces the live experience.

But what do you do in the mean time? Sports are considering playing games without fans.  Won't be as good but some tv revenue.

Some of the shows and comedians I like are less enjoyable without the professional  video,  sound,  audience, writing team etc. The ACM had kind of a home made quality too.  There is room for improvement there.

 

[emrr]

Yeah, most of my actual revenue comes from live event work.  I don't expect to see it back this year, and a bunch of it may be forced to find new channels and move away from in-person experiences.  Very hard to see.    We could still go to the club and see a band in all other catastrophes.  This is "100 year unique", we can maybe only try to find parallels from the aftermath of the 1918-19 pandemic.  For better or worse I have no employees to worry about, and the studio building is paid for.  I can go there and do whatever repair work I can get shipped in, and ship it back.  Every band lost both of their jobs, the gig and the restaurant, so they've got no funds to start or finish anything.  I've mixed two completed records in the last month, everything else is indefinitely dead in the water.  Sports will be the main thing to watch.  People won't give that up, but how will it be shaped? 

 

[PRR]

> Maybe selling cars or something?

"Car sales across western Europe fell about two-thirds last month, ..., while U.S. car sales in March fell to the lowest level in 10 years. Not surprisingly, as lockdowns consolidate, both markets are expecting even steeper falls in April.
"During China’s lockdown, sales dropped to almost zero. Europe and North America likely have a similar fate ahead of them before seeing a recovery in the second half."
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Car-Sales-Fall-To-10-Year-Low.html
Mitsubishi ...down 52 percent over March of 2019. .... 97 dealerships have closed the sales side of their facilities.
Aston Martin's latest bail-out isn't going to save it now.
https://jalopnik.com/the-catastrophe-is-here-1842611658

 

[living sounds]

Ever again? Sure. In the short-medium term it looks like the world economy will now go through the deleveraging phase that has long been overdue. All non-essential businesses will suffer. Excesses will stop, hard times are ahead. But people will still crave entertainment, and once it's safe again and they can afford it they will go out and listen to live music.

 

[kambo]

Amen to all good thinking, and i hope it ends soon. but
this is not looking good 
i would make plans for alternative ways!
i am not sure if i would go see a live band in a crowd with
bunch of idiots spitting and licking walls, and door handles! and probably spitting on your hair and all over
your body, from ur behind.... u all must have had experience of open bottle/balloon pee  thrown over the crown!

they are already out there!

looks like, this is only the beginning!

 

[scott2000]

Construction Continues At SoFi Stadium Despite A Worker Testing Positive For COVID-19

"More than 3,000 workers, in round-the-clock shifts, are toiling at the Inglewood, Calif., location as the rush is on to have the venue not only ready for Rams and Chargers preseason games in August, but for a Taylor Swift concert on July 25."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jayparis/2020/03/31/construction-continues-at-sofi-stadium-despite-a-worker-testing-positive-for-covid-19/#1cd439a66379

Report: Construction on SoFi Stadium continues despite second worker testing positive for coronavirus

https://sports.yahoo.com/sofi-stadium-rams-chargers-los-angeles-construction-coronavirus-002508055.html

 

[JohnRoberts]

https://forums.prosoundweb.com/index.php/topic,173587.0.html

Here is a link to discussion about reopening live events on a pro sound reinforcement forum. Even the sound professionals want to know.

JR

PS: There are numerous other threads about related topics like cleaning mics, etc...

 

[bluebird]

kambo! watch out for those idiots! you stay safe!

 

[PRR]

Maybe the thing for event-tech workers to think about: what is the next step in live entertainment? Suited to a germ-phobic but well-wired world? Can we improve personal video/sound systems so it is "like being there"? (Ah, without the pee-throw, but also without the sex-with-strangers.) (Or will improved remote-sex systems fix that? I hear(!) that commercial video-chat sex is way up.)

 

[bluebird]

Maybe if we are lucky, immunization from Covid will involve removing the testes and kill a couple birds with one stone.  Men are contracting it more than women...

 

[AusTex64]

Ever again? Sure. In the short-medium term it looks like the world economy will now go through the deleveraging phase that has long been overdue. All non-essential businesses will suffer. Excesses will stop, hard times are ahead. But people will still crave entertainment, and once it's safe again and they can afford it they will go out and listen to live music.

“Once it’s safe again” is the absolute key. That will be decided by the audience. That’s why a well organized, networked, plentiful testing and contact management system is in place is so critical. I think any substantial loosening of the distancing we have is pretty risky without it. Until I see that working, I’ll be limiting my contacts.