> when they said transistors would last forever
And when this was rebutted by tube designers, at least in audio. (The situation in switching is different, but I suspect heat and power costs drove computers and telcos to transistors at least as much as reliability.)
Well made tubes, used within ratings, do NOT die even as often as other parts. In decades of tube-foolery, I've replaced a lot more resistors and caps than tubes. Some of my tube gear has been left on for decades at a time.
I almost never assume a tube has failed. (This did bite me once: a H-P 200AB was erratic and it took me a week to admit that a heater had failed. In my defense: it was a metal tube so I could not check the glow, a 200AB runs so hot that the tube was warm even with no heater or cathode current, and the heater was good when cold, just went open when hot.)
Even in cheap TV sets, where a failed heater is a major pain (series-string means taking ALL the tubes out to a tester), heater failures were rare. Mostly we had RF, H-sweep, and HV tubes worked at/beyond ratings turn up their toes, and these can be diagnosed from symptoms.
In small tubes, gas is baked out and gettered at the factory. In regular service (24/7 or once a month), tubes stay clean or else they have a leak and are duds. One exception seems to be a tube that slept for many years may be gassy until it has been in service many hours.
In over-volted guitar amps, life is tougher and you should probably power-down when not in use.
I power-down when it would impact my electric bill, or when nobody is around to smell smoke.
As for lightning: if a lightning bolt has jumped thousands of feet down from a cloud, it will laugh at a 1/8" gap in an "open" switch. For lightning protection, pull the plug and keep it far enough away from the outlet that the bolt will find some shorter path before it finds your gear.