UBI - Sam Harris and Andrew Yang

[fazer]

UBI has been discussed in other threads.  Here is a Podcast by Sam Harris with Andrew Yang Talking about
Universal Basic Income and the ramifications of why its purposed. 

https://samharris.org/podcasts/130-universal-basic-income/

AI will have a profound effect on society
over the next Decade.  This is suggested by many DIY members in the past.  Have a listen.  It's a purposed alternative with lots of views on the Good the Bad and The Ugly if something isn't addressed. 

 

[fazer]

Yangs book is titled “ The War on Normal Peope”.  I downloaded and find the numbers to be the reason for numerous behaviors of people in today’s world. 

His suggestion to create a change from meaningless GDP which only takes money as the equation to a human derived product or watch the system already collapsing into chaos, get far worse.  There’s a revolution coming when according to his numbers 98 million people have given up on employment to go for disability payments, early retirement,  food stamps,  and other underground activity’s to survive  instead retraining in skills that disappear with a new tech company’s introduction of software to replace them.  Did I mention he’s running for president in 2020.

 

[scott2000]

Interesting stuff! Yesterday my back went haywire on me out of the blue and, no lying, I was stuck on the kitchen floor for 4 hours..... My wife came home but I told her to leave and I'd be ok..... Thank God I'm able to walk around today...... it was the worst pain I've had in my back ever..... I've had kidney stones in the past and this was right up there..... still in caution mode as we speak but I think it'll pass.

I was thinking, wow, I sure could use some UBI if this doesn't turn out well..... I have been a labor machine my entire life and , I'd have a hard time accepting the need for help... But it definitely took on a different thought process in that particular scenario...lol....

Some Career in robotics would be wise for sure.....


Anyhow, I listened to the first 45min (had to conserve my last few percent of battery) of this yesterday while on the floor and it's extremely fascinating... Thanks so much for sharing..... I was telling my Dad about it this morning....... I need to catch up on the rest.....

 

[fazer]

Hey Scott I’m glad your better.  I’ve had problems with my back at various times and I am a candidate for fusion but never got it done.  It’s no fun and if you are a landscaper or construction worker, it impossible to stop working.  I’ve been in post production and had to hobble down to the Machine Room to change layback tapes to come back in tears from the pain.  It changes the way you do thing.  I’m semiretired now and don’t do the construction jobs I use to do around property I owned.    UBI is better than disability in the sense that you are not penalized for doing some work including volunteer work.  The idea of a human credit where you help someone’s child with home work or a senior citizen with driving and such could be helpful with say food and fuel credits and such.
The government may not be good at some things but there great at getting checks to people.  So maybe before a revolution we need to think of a way to help people left behind instead of discouraging them from working.  Also a revolution is coming if something doesn’t change.  With AI ,  there will eq need for fewer skilled workers and it will hit white collar like lawyers, doctors, and every Indian chief out there.

 

[boji]

Thanks faze, yes after listening to this podcast a few months ago I tried to strike up a convo about it but it garnered no interest.

There's plenty of pro's and con's to discuss.  The protestant work ethic in me reflexively rejects the value of free money, but the average person completely underestimates how transformative AI is going to be in the coming decade.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wu8s0tp9yzY

UBI debate needs to happen as many labor and middle-income technical jobs are going to be made obsolete. Add population growth and productivity curve maturation to the mix and there's no way unemployment figures will remain stable.

Anthropic Capitalism And The New Gimmick Economy:
https://www.edge.org/response-detail/26756

 

[JohnRoberts]

Interesting stuff! Yesterday my back went haywire on me out of the blue and, no lying, I was stuck on the kitchen floor for 4 hours..... My wife came home but I told her to leave and I'd be ok..... Thank God I'm able to walk around today...... it was the worst pain I've had in my back ever..... I've had kidney stones in the past and this was right up there..... still in caution mode as we speak but I think it'll pass.

Sounds like maybe a pinched nerve?

There are suggestions that weak back muscles can allow spinal misalignment (and pain).  When I was young (a long time ago) I had back pain. That would come and go away slowly. When I got drafted into the army (also a long time ago) I figured that my back would go out and I'd be home free... . As it turns out, my back hasn't bothered me since (knock on wood). So I guess the answer is go through army basic training. 

I was thinking, wow, I sure could use some UBI if this doesn't turn out well.....

Who doesn't want free sh__?

I have been a labor machine my entire life and , I'd have a hard time accepting the need for help... But it definitely took on a different thought process in that particular scenario...lol....

Some Career in robotics would be wise for sure.....

Computer programming or something related is probably a sustainable occupation...(until china makes the only programming language their chips accept Chinese  ).

Anyhow, I listened to the first 45min (had to conserve my last few percent of battery) of this yesterday while on the floor and it's extremely fascinating... Thanks so much for sharing..... I was telling my Dad about it this morning....... I need to catch up on the rest.....

The classic meme that it's different this time.. : (google "Luddites" for bad predictions about technology).

JR

 

[scott2000]

Sounds like maybe a pinched nerve?
JR

Maybe....I was freaked out about  appendix because it was my right side but, thankfully it's passing...... still feels like I was in a knife fight but I'm hopeful to be near enough to my older 100% in the next week....

 

[fazer]

Computer programming or something related is probably a sustainable occupation...(until china makes the only programming language their chips accept Chinese  ).

The podcast and book discuss that in 10 years , self driving trucks will do away with 2/3rds of 3 1/2 million jobs.  The idea of 2 million truck drivers becoming programmers is very unlikely.  As far as gig economy goes , plumbers would be a better choice.  But AI. Will be able to even threaten programming.  And things like stock analysts are completely being replaced with AI already at investment banks.  So if you can program it may work in the short term but how many real jobs are going to follow the industrial revolution which is used as a model for most conservative arguments.  I agree the disincentive of free sh.. is there and god knows Saudi Arabia is a failed state when people are paid to do nothing.  So those are arguments against.  Let’s see how it works when million of jobs disappear over night in the coming years. 

 

[JohnRoberts]

The podcast and book discuss that in 10 years , self driving trucks will do away with 2/3rds of 3 1/2 million jobs.

That is an easy prediction... I have been making it right here for years.

The idea of 2 million truck drivers becoming programmers is very unlikely.

Indeed, but most (many) are self-employed independent contractors so already have a business mindset. I have been saying this for years we need to empower small (micro) business formation, and technology is helping that. I started my first business back in the 70's and we have better tools now that didn't exist, or weren't affordable back then.

Ironically perhaps truck drivers are in short supply right now, but I agree a bad long term bet.

As far as gig economy goes , plumbers would be a better choice.

There will always be work for tradesmen. There is an attempt to elevate the status of attending trade schools to learn merchantable skills, instead of mortgaging your future with huge student loans to attend college only to be underemployed (while engineering college degrees apparently are still rewarded with employment). I may have some bias as a college dropout.  :

  But AI. Will be able to even threaten programming. 

It will change programming but unlikely to eliminate it, just like higher level languages reduce the rote work of coding (while I still prefer machine language).

And things like stock analysts are completely being replaced with AI already at investment banks.

AI still must be programmed and some market volatility is attributed to group think(?) of similarly programmed AI investment programs, all making the same trading decisions at the same time.

  So if you can program it may work in the short term but how many real jobs are going to follow the industrial revolution which is used as a model for most conservative arguments.

Do not expect to hold any one job for a lifetime, that window closed some time ago. We need to learn how to learn and be adaptable to continue creating value from our work efforts.

I agree the disincentive of free sh.. is there and god knows Saudi Arabia is a failed state when people are paid to do nothing.  So those are arguments against. 

Paid to not overthrow the regime... Saudi money (and religious extremism) has fueled a lot of bad behavior in the world. They are attempting to turn that ship, but it won't be quick or easy.

Not to veer to current events but ironic that Turkey is twisting the screws with evidence they apparently collected surreptitiously from the Saudi embassy. Trying to embarrass the Saudis over a journalist they apparently killed, while Turkey is a world leader for number of journalists in jail (along with Egypt and China). 

Let’s see how it works when million of jobs disappear over night in the coming years.

Indeed we (you guys) will see.  Universal income looks attractive to billionaires who already have their pile of money, because it allows the consumers to keep buying their poop. This too has been tried, but no successful serious experiments last time I checked a while back. 

JR

 

[fazer]

AI Can Now Self-Reproduce—Should Humans Be Worried? | Eric Weinstein

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wu8s0tp9yzY

Boji - that sounds like a new SiFi movie.  Brave new world with a reproductive program that taps into bit coin for a currency.    World needed plastic so it created conditions for people .  World has plastic now it doesn't need people. 

We are the virus.  Global warming is the solution.  Sounds like another T shirt logo.

Hey JR , I know I've read about your warning about AI and the future many times and being semi retired am glad I got to do what I did at a time you could do it. 

I'm listening to his book, " The War on Normal People",  I use to like to read books but my eyes go crazy reading on a iPad,  so listening allows me to clean up my house while listening to the message. 

Self driving trucks are presented as being so efficient that you could pay the out of work drivers 40k a year and still save millions.  It would also provide  safety on the road in which over 3000 people a year are killed by large truck accidents where 90% is caused by driver fatigue. 

It will change programming but unlikely to eliminate it
Agreed its just another language to add to your abilities list.

A lot of people may know about this but, I use a app call Axis 360 that allows you to download books from you public Library and return in 20 days.  Great for driving in all the traffic and not getting upset with the road rage.   

Turkey is a world leader for number of journalists in jail
Do what I say not what I do.  I wonder what the intelligence communities know around the world these days.  They must be bugging all the embassies.