Brexit

[sahib]

They were telling us how great the world economy was doing until we hit the rock bottom overnight.  Listen to what Michael Gove is saying. We will be facing exactly the same economic challenges if we remain.

Absolutely the last individual in Parliament I'd trust on any issue.  Even discounting his recent Exit-related remarks like comparing pro-Remain economists to Nazis or simply making up numbers to support his arguments, the damage that he did to the British education system during his time as Education Secretary ought to be illustration enough about his feelings of duty to the electorate.  An exceptionally dangerous individual.

I would not trust him either and I am not even a conservative voter. But it was a sensible answer to a question. 

Even now the Sterling has dropped it still does not mean he was wrong. There are always losers and winners. Bad for shares, good for export.

 

[DaveP]

The crunch was 2008 (with Gordon Brown as PM), Cameron's promise was made in 2013, if I remember right.

Yes, he was in the coalition government that was elected to sort out the mess in 2010,  he was the elected head of a split conservative government in 2015.

2,209,615

DaveP

 

[Banzai]

So what you are saying is that he should have denied the electorate the opportunity to vote in a referendum in the national interest?

You can't deny something that wasn't even on the table. He's the one who put it there, and for no valid reason. At least none that were in the interests of the general public, the people he was supposedly elected to represent.

Whilst I agree that the government and the conservative party are not one and the same thing, at the time they were because Labour were unelectable, in those circumstances it was in the national interest.

For me you're still confusing politics with national interest. There was no scenario where it was absolutely necessary to put into question the UK's membership, nor for Cameron to absolutely be the PM.

The only benefit from all this is that UKIP has basically lost its entire reason for existing in the first place... Hopefully they'll all crawl back to where they came from.

 

[DaveP]

For me you're still confusing politics with national interest. There was no scenario where it was absolutely necessary to put into question the UK's membership, nor for Cameron to absolutely be the PM.

The only benefit from all this is that UKIP has basically lost its entire reason for existing in the first place... Hopefully they'll all crawl back to where they came from.

Well none of us know what the outcome would have been if he had followed your advice, he would probably have lost the last election, who knows?

I can definitely agree with you about UKIP.
What is such a tragedy is that apparently, so many voted to leave as a protest vote and never expected to win.  They rejected the warnings as scaremongering only to find them becoming the new reality.

It may be that MP's will not confuse politics with the national interest and may refuse to ratify the referendum, I hope you're right.  I think there will be a general election soon, either to legitimise a new PM or an "IN/OUT decider because most MP's back the EU.

2,420,480

DaveP

 

[keefaz]

French media show this event as if a comet destroyed the whole UK. I don't get it.
While they use to praise our democratic system, showing us how bad politics some countries are led with, now they show fear about a referendum result. Why, was it only one choice possible? Is it democratic?
People in a country always have to deal with government politic choices, now how politics, media et all would deal with this people vote?
That being said, I don't know long term consequences, hope all will be well for you, UK residents. You have been islanders a long time, you know how to deal with it

@John you got it right with google (re cracher dans la soupe)
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/cracher_dans_la_soupe

 

[ruffrecords]

French media show this event as if a comet destroyed the whole UK. I don't get it.
While they use to praise our democratic system, showing us how bad politics some countries are led with, now they show fear about a referendum result. Why, was it only one choice possible? Is it democratic?
People in a country always have to deal with government politic choices, now how politics, media et all would deal with this people vote?
That being said, I don't know long term consequences, hope all will be well for you, UK residents. You have been islanders a long time, you know how to deal with it

@John you got it right with google (re cracher dans la soupe)
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/cracher_dans_la_soupe

I think it is panic from those who voted to remain or didn't bother to vote but wanted to remain. They never expected to lose. They were complacent and now they are in shock and they are angry. They completely underestimated the feeling of 'the silent majority'. The pro Leave newspapers in the UK are jubilant.

Cheers

Ian

 

[DaveP]

I think it is panic from those who voted to remain or didn't bother to vote but wanted to remain. They never expected to lose. They were complacent and now they are in shock and they are angry. They completely underestimated the feeling of 'the silent majority'. The pro Leave newspapers in the UK are jubilant.

This is true, but I would add that a deciding number of people voted "leave", never expecting to win, a serious miscalculation.  They thought the margin was sufficient to allow their protest vote, turned out it wasn't.  Project fear is now Project reality.

I think these were what we now call "low information" voters, who thought all the warnings were just an establishment conspiracy.  The sight of these warnings coming true is the driver behind the petition, set to pass 3M in the next few minutes.

UK politics is in meltdown this weekend over the upcoming general election.  Labour is coming apart today and is searching for an electable labour leader.

Conservatives in a similar search for an electable leader.

The body language of Farage, Gove and Boris could not be more different.  Farage almost orgasmic, but Gove and Boris looking like "What the f*ck have we done", it wasn't supposed to be like this.

2,947,763

DaveP

 

[sahib]

There was no scenario where it was absolutely necessary to put into question the UK's membership, nor for Cameron to absolutely be the PM.

The only benefit from all this is that UKIP has basically lost its entire reason for existing in the first place... Hopefully they'll all crawl back to where they came from.

There was.

Euro scepticism did not start the day before the last election and the 52% did not decide to vote a night before the referendum.

For Cameron to be the leader  he had to please almost half of the party. In the first term he somehow avoided it as because there was not much pressure but on the last election he had to do that because he had to be a majority government which in return required stealing votes from UKIP.

I agree on UKIP. They can all close shop and retire now.

However, an interesting development is that now Nicola Sturgeon is looking into staying in Europe without the referendum for independence. So, you never know we may still be a part of EU here in Scotland.

 

[ruffrecords]

I think it is panic from those who voted to remain or didn't bother to vote but wanted to remain. They never expected to lose. They were complacent and now they are in shock and they are angry. They completely underestimated the feeling of 'the silent majority'. The pro Leave newspapers in the UK are jubilant.

This is true, but I would add that a deciding number of people voted "leave", never expecting to win, a serious miscalculation. 

You cannot possibly know this.

I think these were what we now call "low information" voters, who thought all the warnings were just an establishment conspiracy.  The sight of these warnings coming true is the driver behind the petition, set to pass 3M in the next few minutes.

Like the government, I think you seriously underestimate  UK voters

UK politics is in meltdown this weekend over the upcoming general election.  Labour is coming apart today and is searching for an electable labour leader.

What upcoming general election?
Cheers

Ian

 

[thermionic]

You also reinforced the earlier point that Cameron's motives for the referendum were entirely political. Considering the direct effect on UK households of each, linking the conservative party falling apart to the UK possibly leaving the EU shows how terrifyingly arrogant and reckless he was.

So what you are saying is that he should have denied the electorate the opportunity to vote in a referendum in the national interest?

Yes.

Decisions are taken by government which are in the national interest. The system is that we elect the politicians based on their manifestos and to some degree their general idealogical  beliefs, then they take decisions on policy and law on our behalf on the basis of their experience and expertise. It's their job, and though I don't suggest in the least that all of them are good at it, they're better informed, on the whole, than the majority of the public.

The important point : A huge cross-party majority supported Remain. Bigger than for any other political issue I can personally remember.

This indicates to me that the people who should know, crucially  from parties who's entire ideologies I DO support, and parties that I DON'T, all arrived at the same conclusion... that Remain was the correct option for the UK irrespective of political standpoint.

They didn't get to make this decison in the end. It was made be a group of people who frankly, which ever side they were on, were for the most part under informed and angry - a dangerous combination. This has lead to a situation where actually no one has any idea how this is going to play out. That's not a good situation for a country to be in as far as I'm concerned.

Beautifully written post, Rob - I couldn't agree more. The irony is that the issues that motivated people to vote leave are likely to get worse by pulling out of the EU.  Voting to leave is an act of self destruction, that'll have little effect on the corporations and politicians who created the environment which fostered resent.

I live near where, up until a few weeks ago, Soundcraft / BSS / Studer was based. At one point they had 2,000 employees - a whole community. Now, the entire operation (even the China side) has been moved to Hungary. Brands won't want to invest in a country which is as divided as UK PLC - they will simply do a 'Harman'  :'(

Maine newspaper is crying that we may export less to the UK, our #7 export market, due to smaller GBP and not using the UK as a door to the EU market.

I'll tell my mother to adopt another Maine Coon. That'll sort it -)

 

[DaveP]

What upcoming general election?

Listen to the news

3,186,182

DaveP

 

[DaveP]

Beautifully written post, Rob - I couldn't agree more. The irony is that the issues that motivated people to vote leave are likely to get worse by pulling out of the EU.  Voting to leave is an act of self destruction, that'll have little effect on the corporations and politicians who created the environment which fostered resentment.

I couldn't agree more either.  History will apportion blame to Cameron or not as the facts are digested.  Everything is clearer in hindsight.

I have to ask myself, that if he had refused to offer a referendum, then  would he have had a revolt and loss of confidence motion to deal with?  Particularly in the light of the Syrian refugee crisis and Merkel opening the flood gates.

To be honest, it is now a moot point as events are moving so fast and we have a whole new world to come to terms with that half of us certainly didn't  sign up for.

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DaveP

 

[Winston OBoogie]

...events are moving so fast and we have a whole new world to come to terms with that half of us certainly didn't to sign up for.

And I would guess that a good chunk of the half that *did* sign up for it, did so based on bullshit slogan promises that can't realistically be kept. 

 

[JohnRoberts]

I think it is panic from those who voted to remain or didn't bother to vote but wanted to remain. They never expected to lose. They were complacent and now they are in shock and they are angry. They completely underestimated the feeling of 'the silent majority'. The pro Leave newspapers in the UK are jubilant.

This is true, but I would add that a deciding number of people voted "leave", never expecting to win, a serious miscalculation. 

You cannot possibly know this.

I think these were what we now call "low information" voters, who thought all the warnings were just an establishment conspiracy.  The sight of these warnings coming true is the driver behind the petition, set to pass 3M in the next few minutes.

Like the government, I think you seriously underestimate  UK voters

UK politics is in meltdown this weekend over the upcoming general election.  Labour is coming apart today and is searching for an electable labour leader.

What upcoming general election?
Cheers

Ian

I am not making any such claim, but reportedly there were an above average number of google searches after the vote for "what is Brexit, and what is EU?". I would hope such information seeking would occur before the vote.

http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/06/24/480949383/britains-google-searches-for-what-is-the-eu-spike-after-brexit-vote

Half kidding, Brexit may have won because it was a catchier title and more fun to say than Bremain. If the election swung on protest votes that would indicate huge disappointment with leadership, but that seems unlikely as the only explanation. Hopefully most knew what they were voting for or against, while Brexit involves more uncertainty about the future and people rarely embrace uncertainty, unless perhaps they didn't care for the path they were certain lay ahead if they didn't change something.

JR

 

[DaveP]

Half kidding, Brexit may have won because it was a catchier title and more fun to say than Bremain. If the election swung on protest votes that would indicate huge disappointment with leadership, but that seems unlikely as the only explanation. Hopefully most knew what they were voting for or against, while Brexit involves more uncertainty about the future and people rarely embrace uncertainty, unless perhaps they didn't care for the path they were certain lay ahead if they didn't change something.

JR,
I think that you make a good point, in that some voters or non voters were never properly engaged and just looked into it afterwards when it was totally in their face.

This is just a guesstimate but I would say that a lot of the remain voters did not have any great love for the EU but feared the consequences of leaving, but the younger remain voters relished the travel and job opportunities it gave.

The majority of the leave voters are older and more passionately anti EU and laid most of Britain's woes at their door, there were also a fair number (based on post Brexit interviews) that just voted to leave as a protest, they thought that could do no harm.

I don't think anyone on either side had or has any idea of what the implications of Brexit will mean.  I think that our lack of bureaucracy compared to the EU will make us more competitive, as will the collapse of our currency, but the door to our major market will be closed so we will have to look elsewhere for trade.  We will be paying more for oil and imports on the downside and some companies will relocate to Ireland possibly, so a plus for them.  There will be no incentive for other countries to invest in England or Wales as an entry to EU markets, the prospective buyers of Tata Steel have pulled out.

Scotland may attempt to break away to join the EU, but that will be resisted by Spain who wants to hold on to Catalonia and the Basque country.  Northern Ireland will be split over joining the South with the possibility of violence re-starting.  Spain will try to regain Gibraltar and may well succeed.  I can't foresee any further than that at the moment.  It is not possible to calculate whether the increased trading opportunities we might get will balance the ones we will lose.

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DaveP

 

[ruffrecords]

What upcoming general election?

Listen to the news

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DaveP

I have; one labour MP said 'if there is an early general election' in the context of who would be labout leader. No other mention I can find.

Cheers

Ian

 

[DaveP]

I have; one labour MP said 'if there is an early general election' in the context of who would be labout leader. No other mention I can find.

Before that, it was mentioned many times that a new conservative leader would have to go to the country to legitimise their premiership in order to lead negotiations with the EU

The reason being quoted was the case of Gordon Brown who failed to do so when he had the opportunity in the September he took over from Blair.

3,393,498

DaveP

 

[ruffrecords]

I have; one labour MP said 'if there is an early general election' in the context of who would be labout leader. No other mention I can find.

Before that, it was mentioned many times that a new conservative leader would have to go to the country to legitimise their premiership in order to lead negotiations with the EU

The reason being quoted was the case of Gordon Brown who failed to do so when he had the opportunity in the September he took over from Blair.

3,393,498

DaveP

There is  no constitutional reason for this to happen.  Many times in the past, prime ministers have died , or been ousted etc and there has not been a general election. The new pm will go straight into negotiations with the EU with a view to completing them before the next general election is due.

Cheers

Ian

 

[L´Andratté]

http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/people-are-really-really-hoping-this-theory-about-david-cameron-and-brexit-is-true--bJhqBql0VZ

 

[DaveP]

That is exactly right L' Andratte.

He has been given a poison chalice, and he has brought it all on himself, this is why he looks more worried than ecstatic.

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DaveP