A Taste of Things to Come

[DaveP]

The Caravan of Central American migrants could not have come at a better time for Trump, with the mid terms coming up.

How did it start?

A FB page apparently.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/adolfoflores/a-huge-caravan-of-central-americans-is-headed-for-the-us#.ggMQYE9W7.

Why did it start?  Usual story of corruption in a Catholic country.  Catholic birth control policy leads to surplus population over jobs.  Same problem in Muslim countries too. (Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh & Indonesia)  Law of supply and Demand.

US and European culture obliges young people to have jobs and a home before bringing children into the world, this is not a universal practice.  This is indicated by the rising age for first time births (29.5 in UK).

Strategy: Too much hassle to enter US legally, so with enough numbers you storm the frontier and overwhelm the border guards.

This is just the beginning, imagine what will happen when climate change causes famine in the very near future.

DaveP

 

[JohnRoberts]

The Caravan of Central American migrants could not have come at a better time for Trump, with the mid terms coming up.

I suspect even he doesn't want this, but the resistance is the gift that keeps giving.

How did it start?

A FB page apparently.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/adolfoflores/a-huge-caravan-of-central-americans-is-headed-for-the-us#.ggMQYE9W7.

Avoid simple answers, but I am pretty sure the wall to wall media coverage has significantly upped the numbers participating. Political activists that think this will help their cause or embarrass POTUS, are not thinking clearly. 

Why did it start?  Usual story of corruption in a Catholic country.  Catholic birth control policy leads to surplus population over jobs.  Same problem in Muslim countries too. (Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh & Indonesia)  Law of supply and Demand.

huh? Again avoid simple answers... 

My simplistic answer for the malaise in central america is the lack of rule of law (drug trade, human trafficking, etc), and poor economic opportunity. This is all fixable over time but there are hotter hot spots in the world glowing at the moment.

US and European culture obliges young people to have jobs and a home before bringing children into the world, this is not a universal practice.  This is indicated by the rising age for first time births (29.5 in UK).

Strategy: Too much hassle to enter US legally, so with enough numbers you storm the frontier and overwhelm the border guards.

Actually the way US law is currently written they just have to present themselves for arrest at the border and will get released into the US. US immigration law is broken and congress lacks the cohones to fix it (again... it has been fixed before but without following through so just repeats).  They know this and coyotes are profiting from them, not to mention smuggling and other funny business concealed within the "humanitarian" (cough) wave. 

The immediate issue is Mexico letting tens of thousands pass through their southern border unfettered (yes mexico has borders that are secured, while not adequate for the barrage from this caravan).  Mexico used to be the major source of illegal immigration into the US, but they now get turned back at the border, so central america is leading the illegal immigrant parade.  Maybe we need to load up a caravan of buses at the border and drive them back home.

This is just the beginning, imagine what will happen when climate change causes famine in the very near future.

Thanks for the humorous aside... the current increase in CO2 is causing more agricultural output (plants consume CO2 so grow better),  famine is less likely. There may be some isolated issues with local famines due to changing weather patterns (like already happens due to weather).

I saw an interesting interview with Patrick Micheals (a conservative senior Cato institute fellow) and as you might guess he is already discredited by the climate change mob.  So I won't invite more scorn here by quoting him extensively (while IMO he makes some good points).

JR

DaveP

 

[desol]

Thanks for the humorous aside... the current increase in CO2 is causing more agricultural output (plants consume CO2 so grow better),  famine is less likely. There may be some isolated issues with local famines due to changing weather patterns (like already happens due to weather).

To me this sounds like a bit of an excuse just to continue on our fossil burning, money burning path without any significant regard. Too much of anything is bad, isn't it? Any minor photosynthetic gains will eventually be lost to rising heat stress as well as 'too much' C02. Think 20 or 30 years into the future. Not that far....never mind 50. C02 levels have historically remained more or less unchanged, guaranteeing a balance in terms of healthy plant metabolism: this includes nutritional value and photosynthetic rate. For the last 400,000 years or so, levels have not risen above 290 ppm. As you increase C02 past any reasonable limits, the metabolic offset begins to reward you with negative gains elsewhere.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ask-the-experts-does-rising-co2-benefit-plants1/

A taste of things to come.

 

[cyrano]

We're done anyway. Fertility rate is dropping like a stone in the west. And that's not because we're not having sex. It's because sperm count is dropping. But not only sperm count. Female fertility is affected too.

A recent test has found plastic microparticles in 100% of the human stool samples:

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-10/sh-mdi101518.php

Just try imagining what the consequences are of having plastics in your system. We don't KNOW yet, as it hasn't been researched. But it sure isn't healthy.

 

[fazer]

Just try imagining what the consequences are of having plastics in your system

.

This isn’t funny but I like George Carlin’s comment.  The earth couldn’t figure out how to make plastic and needed people.  The earth has plastic , so now it doesn’t need people.  Or something like that. 

 

[cyrano]

Don't we still have like a million abortions a year in just the US??? And what about birth control ?? 

Yep. And even funeral parlors storing human foetus in the ceiling...

But this is mainly about sperm count, couples who want a baby desperately, but can't reproduce.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I would expect better science from a technical topic based forum (audio electronics).

Be happy they are finding plastic in stool, instead of in the brains.

While this is anecdotal the few young couples I know have kids, and I am the only person from my generation I know without children (by choice), and grandchildren.

AFAIK there is a trend in the west correlated with higher wealth toward smaller families.

If a young couple is desperate for a child, maybe adopt one of the many unwanted that get discarded before birth.

I recall flying back from China in a plane full of newly adopted crying babies,  :'( :'(  but China's restrictive family policy drove that baby surplus. They relaxed the one child policy since then (2013), but simultaneously are getting wealthier so we'll see how that works out. 

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

WTF?

hopefully you don't get your news here??

http://thesource.com/2018/10/14/11-dead-babies-found-in-funeral-home-ceiling-in-detroit/

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

I just googled the phrase and it came up multiple times??? Why is that source hokey????

NO, "I hope you do not get your current events news here" (here being a DIY audio electronics forum).

My link didn't throw up subscription pop up windows (like usatoday).

The dead babies in the attic is a better halloween story than important current events, but appears to be real.

JR 

Here's USA today...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/10/21/63-fetuses-detroit-funeral-home-lawsuit/1720037002/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatodaycomnation-topstories

 

[JohnRoberts]

The Caravan of Central American migrants could not have come at a better time for Trump, with the mid terms coming up.

How did it start?

A FB page apparently.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/adolfoflores/a-huge-caravan-of-central-americans-is-headed-for-the-us#.ggMQYE9W7.

Why did it start?  Usual story of corruption in a Catholic country.  Catholic birth control policy leads to surplus population over jobs.  Same problem in Muslim countries too. (Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh & Indonesia)  Law of supply and Demand.

US and European culture obliges young people to have jobs and a home before bringing children into the world, this is not a universal practice.  This is indicated by the rising age for first time births (29.5 in UK).

Strategy: Too much hassle to enter US legally, so with enough numbers you storm the frontier and overwhelm the border guards.

This is just the beginning, imagine what will happen when climate change causes famine in the very near future.

DaveP

Did you read the link you posted? It is dated Mar 30, 2018 so one slow ass moving caravan...  :

Reportedly the actual caravan in the news was instigated by a former Honduran congressman Bartolo Fuentes of the left-wing Libre party, he admitted to organizing it. For those who don't recall it was the Libre party leader in 2009 (Zelaya) who tried to overturn the Honduran constitution and remain in power past the term limits (Zelaya was allied with Venezuela and Cuba but the Honduran military removed him).

BUT getting back to today... this organizer didn't have the resources for this many people so they are getting financial assistance from elsewhere (follow the money).  Not to mention wall to wall free publicity from international media. Fuentes was detained in Guatemala and returned to Honduras last week. The short list of who might support this potential embarrassment to the US government just before the mid term election includes Venezuela and Cuba, but even US human rights groups who are apposed to borders and rooting for the caravan members to enjoy the American dream are probably supporting them too.  Finally there is the criminal element involved. These travelers typically pay for protection and whatever else the coyotes provide on such a long journey. 

This is a sad situation for the illegal immigrants, but rarely what it first appears, or what spinners will spin it as...

Don't take my word for anything but at least please question more of what you see and read. Especially now in the political crazy season weeks before another vote. 

JR

 

[DaveP]

I did read it, but these things take time to go viral.

I have known for a long time that there are organisations and activists throughout the world who are determined to abolish borders everywhere.  Whether they have worked out the consequences or even care I don't know.  All I know is that when governments fail to act or listen, people turn to the ones who do.  People they would never support if everything was hunky dory. In other words unpleasant right wing parties.

I feel sorry for these migrants as they are just being used as pawns in a far bigger game.

I am curious as to how the caravan was stopped on the bridge, yet 5000 people got across by rafts?  Was there a second contingent already waiting to join the numbers who got across the river?  Over here the media have been obsessed with the death of Khashoggi for days on end, he was one of their own I note.  Not too much action being devoted to how this caravan was started or sustained, it probably takes more than a few loaves and fishes.  The object is to present Trump as heartless in denying these people access and to consequently open the gates to the many others who would surely follow.  Women and children are essential here, correct me if I'm wrong.

The message I get, is that the lack of law and order in Honduras and elsewhere is a good enough reason to be a migrant, but they would like law and order suspended at the border just so they can get in.  I think that logic is faulty.

Law and order is the only thing that stops the US and Europe turning into Honduras, Venezuela and all the other basket cases.

DaveP

 

[JohnRoberts]

I did read it, but these things take time to go viral.

do you think they are related? I am less certain.

I have known for a long time that there are organisations and activists throughout the world who are determined to abolish borders everywhere.  Whether they have worked out the consequences or even care I don't know. 

Maybe they are channeling John Lennon (Imagine).

All I know is that when governments fail to act or listen, people turn to the ones who do.  People they would never support if everything was hunky dory. In other words unpleasant right wing parties.

perhaps not that simple, but indeed a worldwide trend.

I feel sorry for these migrants as they are just being used as pawns in a far bigger game.

They are motivated to improve their personal circumstance, but indeed there are actors behind the scenes trying to gain advantage. This is a little reminiscent of the Mariel boat lift, when Castro dumped a bunch of undesirables on So FL in the midst of a humanitarian mass exodus.

I am curious as to how the caravan was stopped on the bridge, yet 5000 people got across by rafts?  Was there a second contingent already waiting to join the numbers who got across the river?

Sorry I do not know details on the ground. AFAIK They were momentarily stopped at Mexican border but eventually overpowered border security and broke through. The number in the caravan is growing daily since entering Mexico, no doubt thanks to the 24/7 media coverage.  If they believe this will have a happy ending the number will likely keep growing.

Over here the media have been obsessed with the death of Khashoggi for days on end, he was one of their own I note. 

The media here is looking for how to pin this tale on President Trump. President Obama cooled our alliance with Saudis (sunnni) , and made overtures/concessions with Iran (shia). President Trump reversed that direction. The joker in this deck of cards is Turkey, using this as a wedge issue to disrupt US-Saudi relations, and take attention off Turkey's authoritarian drift in recent years. In fact Turkey has been pretty clever leaking out the evidence of Saudi misbehavior in drips and drops (death by a hundred cuts). Give them enough rope to claim nothing happened, then splash some damning video evidence.

There is no excuse for Saudi behavior, or their amateurish attempts to cover it up, but lets not be too shocked that stuff like this happens.  It is wrong, but it happens, and people will try to spin this for advantage too (like Turkey, et al). 

Last I heard the US CIA director is over in SA so this is being taken seriously (while she is mainly there to make a political statement and put pressure on the crown prince).

If anybody thinks the Saudis won't name multiple scape goats, buy a lottery ticket. 
   

Not too much action being devoted to how this caravan was started or sustained, it probably takes more than a few loaves and fishes.  The object is to present Trump as heartless in denying these people access and to consequently open the gates to the many others who would surely follow.  Women and children are essential here, correct me if I'm wrong.

The message I get, is that the lack of law and order in Honduras and elsewhere is a good enough reason to be a migrant, but they would like law and order suspended at the border just so they can get in.  I think that logic is faulty.

South/central America is struggling with left/right politics. Honduras resisted being pulled further left in 2009 but the tension down there is constant. 

Law and order is the only thing that stops the US and Europe turning into Honduras, Venezuela and all the other basket cases.

DaveP

Rule of law is necessary for preserving almost everything we hold dear. 

JR

 

[ruffrecords]

if everything was hunky dory. In other words unpleasant right wing parties.
DaveP

They also go for unpleasant left wing parties. Just look at the support Jeremiad Corbyn got at the last election.

Cheers

Ian

 

[dmp]

Trump's handling of the Saudi killing of Khashoggi has been incredibly terrible.  Initially he called it a false accusation:
"I think we have to find out what happened first," he said. "Here we go again with, you know, you're guilty until proven innocent. I don't like that. We just went through that with Justice Kavanaugh and he was innocent all the way as far as I'm concerned."
Seriously?

but apparently his family has business with the Saudi's, to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. Or perhaps because Trump has been waging his own war on Journalists and encouraging violence. Trump recently praised a Republican Congressman (Gianforte) that assaulted a journalist: "Any guy that can do a body slam, he’s my kind of—he’s my guy.” No wonder violence in the USA is rising when the President encourages it.

Trump's rhetoric on immigration has certainly been divisive and filled with lies lately too. 
A major campaign promise of Trump was to do something about immigration reform, but he hasn't done anything except stir up prejudice and anger.  I think it is a conservative issue that Republican's enjoy having to motivate their base - but never do anything about (or tell the truth about). Trump's claim that this caravan was filled with middle easterns (i.e. terrorists in his dog whistle language), was a good example. Claiming his political opponents want open boarders, etc... it's just incredibly stupid.

The degree of trump's lies lately borders on ridiculous. How dumb does he think people are? 

He said this about health care:
"Republicans will totally protect people with Pre-Existing Conditions, Democrats will not! Vote Republican."

Democrats passed the ACA (obamacare), which protected people with pre-existing conditions.
All Republicans opposed it.
Republicans have repeatably voted to repeal it. Trump campaigned on repealing it.
The Trump admin is not defending it in a lawsuit brought by Republican State Governments to gut it.

*************

The real substance is what Republicans are not talking about - their signature accomplishment - a tax weighted to the very rich. Isn't it incredible that they aren't mentioning this to midterm voters?  Maybe because it hasn't paid for itself and it hasn't made businesses increase wages. Everyday people aren't getting anything out of it.

Trump did mention a tax cut the other day: "We’re going to be putting in a 10 percent tax cut for middle-income families. It’s going to be put in next week, " 
But Congress isn't in session and apparently no one in Congress had heard about this. Again I wonder how dumb he thinks people are?

 

[JohnRoberts]

Speaking of taxes and how dumb can people be, how about the lottery..? This is basically an ignorance tax paid by the dumbest and poorest sector of the economy.

Governments that support lotteries should be ashamed of themselves.

JR

 

[dmp]

Yes, the lottery is known to function as a tax on the poor

I'm reading Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" - a great book on how the brain works. Humans don't have brains that process certain types of data very well - like statistics / odds. We have brains that can instantly recognize dangers, many other things, etc... very well, but certain types of reasoning don't come naturally. He calls the intuitive side of a brain 'system 1' and the conscious thought side 'system 2'

People aren't naturally evolved to be good at a lot of aspects of modern life (finance, debt, etc). Education is extremely important. But people ARE evolved to do some things very well without rigorous education, like running through difficult terrain or recognizing faces / emotions.

Contrast this with a computer with a Machine Learning algorithm, and the AI could handle probabilities and statistics very easily. But running / navigating difficult terrain, recongnizing faces, etc...  are all very difficult.

 

[fazer]

I'm reading Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow"

 

+1 on this book

 

[dmp]

I know when I was helping my son with his Probability theory?SP? math homework, I was shocked at how rare it is to actually be able to get matching numbers....... This was middle school math.......
I still like to throw down a dollar here and there....very rarely though....... I got 5 numbers by chance in Lotto several years ago..... nice rush...... Only a couple thousand at the time but it was fun........

Cool to have won.
A guy at the gas station ahead of me bought $40 the other day. I think a few dollars for entertainment isn't bad, but I feel bad for people spending more than they should who don't realize what a moonshot it is.

 

[john12ax7]

Speaking of taxes and how dumb can people be, how about the lottery..? This is basically an ignorance tax paid by the dumbest and poorest sector of the economy.

Governments that support lotteries should be ashamed of themselves.

JR

At some point it actually does become a +EV endeavor and worth playing.  People have used the edge in the past to buy every number combination and guarantee a profit.

But I do agree in general it's a big scam,  legalized gambling with worse odds than a casino.

 

[Phrazemaster]

Trump's handling of the Saudi killing of Khashoggi has been incredibly terrible.  Initially he called it a false accusation:
"I think we have to find out what happened first," he said. "Here we go again with, you know, you're guilty until proven innocent. I don't like that. We just went through that with Justice Kavanaugh and he was innocent all the way as far as I'm concerned."
Seriously?

but apparently his family has business with the Saudi's, to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. Or perhaps because Trump has been waging his own war on Journalists and encouraging violence. Trump recently praised a Republican Congressman (Gianforte) that assaulted a journalist: "Any guy that can do a body slam, he’s my kind of—he’s my guy.” No wonder violence in the USA is rising when the President encourages it.

Trump's rhetoric on immigration has certainly been divisive and filled with lies lately too. 
A major campaign promise of Trump was to do something about immigration reform, but he hasn't done anything except stir up prejudice and anger.  I think it is a conservative issue that Republican's enjoy having to motivate their base - but never do anything about (or tell the truth about). Trump's claim that this caravan was filled with middle easterns (i.e. terrorists in his dog whistle language), was a good example. Claiming his political opponents want open boarders, etc... it's just incredibly stupid.

The degree of trump's lies lately borders on ridiculous. How dumb does he think people are? 

All politicians, all presidents lie. How can you tell? If their lips are moving.

I think what makes TRump stand out so egregiously is his apparent lack of care that his lies are so obvious. Other politicians at least create the appearance of veracity.

So...is this a bad thing, to know when the pres is lying? They all do it...