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thermionic said:
Last year a single Bitcoin traded at $4 USD. Today that rate's nearer $50 USD.

Secondly, unless the Internet is shut down, how could you stop Bitcoin? Even then, people could use RAM cards. Hundreds of countries would have to collude to outlaw BC. It ain't going to happen. Rumours are circulating that the big banks are dipping their hands (covertly) into the BC water, so to speak.

Seriously.... think about that? Cyprus has demonstrated that even banks with deposits in a major international currency (Euro)  can be risky... There is no FDIC insurance on bitcoin accounts. What happens if you wake up tomorrow and your bitcoin acct has been hacked? Who you gonna call... Bit busters?

It is another variant on barter but with a digital angle.

If you don't trust your country's currency, convert it to hard assets. Farm land seems like a good investment. People will always need to eat. I was telling a guy at the gym last night who values my investment advice more than my political advice,  8) to put his windfall burning a hole in his pocket into rental property. Under the old maxim buy low and sell high, property seems relatively low at the moment.

If bit coin is convenient to buy drugs or hookers, maybe convert enough for your short term needs but I do not see any intrinsic value to make this an investment or backing to be a stable currency.

It is not crazy to be apprehensive about our central bankers and government monetary policy, but this is no solution, IMO

Bit coins are not a ponzi scheme per se, but the structure with an upper limit of total number of possible bitcoins fixed at 21m (?) means it will ultimately behave following simple supply and demand, to increase in price (not value)  if the supply is fixed and the demand increases. So yes like any asset bubble the early buyers will be rewarded, as long as there are more convenient later fools to follow them into the expanding bubble. Unlike a real currency whose amount of money supply is varied based on the economic activity it is used in connection with, to maintain a relatively constant exchange rate (vs commodities), these bit coins are very funny money indeed and apparently engineered to increase in nominal price as long as there is new demand.

With no real value, at a minimum this is a scam to transfer wealth from late adopters to early adopters with the engineered in price behavior. There is probably a small handful of people secretly behind this counting their real money on some tropical island.  Worst case, the late entrants will just transfer their wealth in and run out of new guys to pay them a profit.  I think the news recently was about a significant price correction. Nothing ever goes up forever. but I do not know where supply is relative to the cap yet.  I don't think this is actually illegal, but it probably should be. Apparently this is engineered to be easy to divide into smaller pieces to deal with price appreciation. This is Ok if people only use it as a surrogate currency, but if human greed takes over  (like with all asset bubbles), and people pile in like an investment they will be disappointed. i suspect the easy money has already been made by the founders and cashed in. 

I wonder if you can buy bitcoins with food stamp charge cards?

JR

PS: I almost forgot, last night at the gym while I was trying to give another player advice about rental property, another guy was bragging about some HUD program where if you get the rental properties approved the government guarantees the rent payments.. He said he had something like 8 or 10 properties. Oh boy. My tax dollars at work.
 
gunpoint recording said:
i understand it as basically a pyramid scheme.  the values only increase as long as there are new people buying in.  just like any ponzi scheme / pyramid scheme... the ones at the top will make out great... but the late adopters will loose their money to the ones on the top.

How could this be the case? Like any 'currency' its value in future depends on faith. The value could plummet, as with any currency. Its value fell massively this week, in fact: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9987664/Bitcoin-trading-halted-after-panic-sell-off.html

My info is well out of date. It started the year below $20 USD and passed $200 USD last Tuesday.

It's obviously a risky investment opportunity, but I fail to see how it could remotely be described as a Ponzi scheme. In fact, I wonder if such rumours are distributed by Fox News and the like....
 
thermionic said:
It's obviously a risky investment opportunity, but I fail to see how it could remotely be described as a Ponzi scheme. In fact, I wonder if such rumours are distributed by Fox News and the like....

not calling it a ponzi scheme... just comparing it to the notion that it seems to require an increasing number of buyers to keep the value rising.  in order to make more money from a bitcoin... someone would need to pay in more money.  eventually theres no more money.  right?
 
gunpoint recording said:
thermionic said:
It's obviously a risky investment opportunity, but I fail to see how it could remotely be described as a Ponzi scheme. In fact, I wonder if such rumours are distributed by Fox News and the like....

not calling it a ponzi scheme... just comparing it to the notion that it seems to require an increasing number of buyers to keep the value rising.  in order to make more money from a bitcoin... someone would need to pay in more money.  eventually theres no more money.  right?

But then again, you could argue that this means no one can print money, i.e. 'quantitive easing' and the like, which has its own advantages.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAjL_X_ZesE

 
people "print money" all the time... Bitmining. They mine the coins... it makes very little sense to me, because I still don't understand what the purpose is at all... What are we accomplishing here and why does it have any kind of monetary value?

Also, bitcoins can be backed up, and should be if you're smart. Save your coins on a flash drive and print it out in paper form and file it away.

Is it a good investment? Hell no! It's terrible. After one DDOS attack to mt.gox everything started to fall apart. Some are saying that a rather shady investor(s) with a fairly large stock sold off a huge amount at around the highest exchange, just before the crash, then attacked the mt.gox site to bring it offline, which then caused people to panic and pull out. Once the prices came tumbling down, buy your own bitcoins back at a third of the price you told them.

Why would you want to put any kind of real money into such an easily manipulated market?

I'm still watching with fascination on the sidelines, because we now get to see what an unregulated market looks like. What things could be like if we unleashed the bankers...

Next time it crashes though, I'm probably going to buy, just to see what happens in the long run, and if it's all lost, so be it.
 
It's a DIY currency...  The purpose of a currency is to symbolically represent value for use in commerce. The 22m cap on how much will ever be in circulation represents their promise to insure against inflation. There is presently some 11m in circulation so in principle the supply can only double from here. It is volatile due to speculation and no solid backing, like many currencies that have or used to have gold or silver equivalency.

They apparently anticipate increasing value over time which is why they make it divisible down into smaller usable amounts.

It is little shady (secretive) about who is actually behind it. And many are in it to make a profit from the early appreciation. If it behaved like a good currency it's value would be stable. If they were serious they would base it's valuation on a basket of commodities. perhaps priced in a weighted mix of the world's currencies, but if it's the world's currencies they are trying to decouple from, maybe just price it based on the cost of the commodities in bitcoins.

I prefer my currency backed by a substantial authority (like a country).

JR






 
I guess it's so interesting to me because it's so young but it's taking off. People are having faith in the currency for the most part. That's the part I don't understand. Something so practically useless is currently above $200 USD
 
gemini86 said:
I guess it's so interesting to me because it's so young but it's taking off. People are having faith in the currency for the most part. That's the part I don't understand. Something so practically useless is currently above $200 USD

It was $266 on Wednesday, only to drop to $66 on Fri. How's that for volatile?
 
haha yeah. My sis-in-law has a co worker that bought 1BTC at $144. He won't stop talking about how much money he's going to make... at this point it's anyone's guess, but $140 isn't enough of a risk to loose sleep over. There was a guy a few months ago on Reddit that completely filled his credit card and bought 30K in bitcoins at $14, then he cashed that same 30K out (plus interest) when it hit high at $200 before it crashed a while ago. his credit cards are paid for and he still has about 2000BTC left in play. Should be interesting to see what he ends up making off it, my guess it he's smart enough to pull out next time it gets close to 200, or maybe he's curious/greedy and wants to see how high it will go. At this point he's playing with monopoly money so, whatever I guess.
 
Classic bubble mentality.

Currency is not supposed to be an investment.

Remonds me of the housing bubble before the last crash, "we'll all be rich....look at this million dollar house I own.".  :)

JR

PS: I think bitcoin server crashed for several hours on thursday.. rumors of high frequency traders skimming value there too... like the stock market isn't enough for them sc__bags to skim.
 
Yes, with bubble will pop... there will be a point where bitcoin is no longer valid and can't go anywhere... then it will just be a currency. But with online "banks" being such a target for DDOS attacks like they are, how do you spend your "money" when it's not accessable? These new bitcoin "investors" are too lazy to download the official bitcoin software and keep their wallet offline, simply because they're not interested in spending it until they want to cash out.

The other problem is that BTC isn't very liquid... you can't just sell 1000BTC at the drop of a hat... you have to find buyers for all that coinage. They takes time, which isn't good for trying to beat the crash.
 
gemini86 said:
Yes, with bubble will pop... there will be a point where bitcoin is no longer valid and can't go anywhere... then it will just be a currency.

... and if it acted like a currency instead of a commodity, it would actually fulfill its intended purpose.

But right now it's a rather illiquid commodity whose price has been shown to be easily manipulated. And while the "currency" itself might be (reasonably) impervious to attack, clearly the exchanges and such one must use to buy and sell it are not.

This comment on an article about Bitcoin's wild price ride really explains the whole idea of Bitcoin "mining," especially the idea that the planned "payout" from "mining" halved earlier this year "as planned," and will halve again in 2017, and then again and again, as the number of Bitcoins in "circulation" asymptotically approaches the ultimate number, 21 million. So it gets harder and harder to mine Bitcoins while the payout for such mining keeps being reduced.

How is that a hedge against inflation? Fuck if I know.

-a
 
Andy Peters said:
gemini86 said:
Yes, with bubble will pop... there will be a point where bitcoin is no longer valid and can't go anywhere... then it will just be a currency.

... and if it acted like a currency instead of a commodity, it would actually fulfill its intended purpose.
amen...  While it seems some secretive person or persons behind this has probably profited handsomely from an early modest investment.
But right now it's a rather illiquid commodity whose price has been shown to be easily manipulated. And while the "currency" itself might be (reasonably) impervious to attack, clearly the exchanges and such one must use to buy and sell it are not.
I see a scary number of attacks on my website every day to steal far less value than a digital currency.
This comment on an article about Bitcoin's wild price ride really explains the whole idea of Bitcoin "mining," especially the idea that the planned "payout" from "mining" halved earlier this year "as planned," and will halve again in 2017, and then again and again, as the number of Bitcoins in "circulation" asymptotically approaches the ultimate number, 21 million. So it gets harder and harder to mine Bitcoins while the payout for such mining keeps being reduced.

How is that a hedge against inflation? f**k if I know.

-a
It seems they have engineered in the the exact opposite of inflation. If this money supply hits a fixed limit, but the economic value it represents continues to increase there will be deflation as bitcoins get stretched.  Inflation is caused when larger money supply chases the same amount of goods. This could be the opposite, fixed amount of money supply, chasing a larger amount of goods.

However as a currency hedge a quick look at gold is instructive. Gold has enjoyed price appreciation relative to the dollar since the dollar was taken off the gold standard. In fact it used to be illegal for Americans to buy gold back when the price was $35 or $40 per ounce. I thought of buying some back then (from Canada) but didn't. Where is time travel when I could really use it? There is an interesting discussion of the nominal price/value of gold, hundreds of years ago in Adam Smith's classic "Wealth of Nations". As new supplies of gold were discovered in the New world, the nominal price dropped as expected by supply and demand.  While there are some who still argue for a gold standard (gold equivalency for paper currency), I suspect it is a too finite of a resource that makes it inappropriate to represent total future economic activity that seems designed to grow, if not smoothly, certainly always expanding over time. (Not all agree with this either.) 

The problem with a currency hedge (against Dollar or Euro) is to be a good store of value that zigs when the national money supply zags, that hedge should have intrinsic value. Gold has some industrial value (ICs, PCB, etc), and some value as jewelry, but beyond that as a perfect hedge against a massive money supply it is questionable. If you bought it at $40 you look pretty smart, if you bought it at $2,000 not so much. While I bought a small position as a doomsday trade (ever the optimist), I hope it does bad, because that means all my dollar denominated assets will go up in value.  8)

I am not smart enough to predict the future trajectory of the bitcoin it appears engineered to to grow in relative valuation as long as it enjoys growing participation and remains fashionable. 

Everybody predicts and expects more future inflation. In Japan they are aggressively targeting 2%, I would still advise more conventional stores of value like hard assets. Land is in reality like what the bitcoin promises, where they aren't making new land these days (except maybe in Holland), but unlike the bitcoin land has real value where you can farm, grow trees, or even live on it. 

Bitcoin is an interesting fashion trend and the world already exists with alternate currencies. At best this is just another currency, at worst a bubble like trap, if people are drawn into it greedily expecting profit from the increasing numbers of later greedy profit seekers  following them in. The music always stops at some point when you run out of new investors, at least it always has before.   

Inflation in fact is a wealth transfer from people who are owed money to people who owe money. It seems the class warriors should embrace inflation, they certainly embrace debt.
 
JR
 
I'm not sure if this means that ETFs have run their course or that BITCOIN is jumping the shark but some wall street types are talking about an ETF that tracks the value of bitcoin... Sounds a little silly.

In the recent weeks one bitcoin market maker shut down US dollar transactions for a while, and some states in the US are forcing bit coin market makers to register like banks for currency transactions.

If anything I see the dollar getting stronger in next several years as we finally raise interest rates.

JR
 
Bitcoin ETF? Wow. Great for short selling, no? Good for the twins.

Satoshi Nakamoto and the Bitcoin revolution. People, honestly, this sounds like a Thomas Pyncheon novel. You remember The Crying of Lot 49? Somewhat similar in overall drive I'd say. Anyway, if someone really wants to invest in something because saving accounts are a sure way of burning money in the mid and long term, I'd suggest investing into something that is a little more "real".

Bitcoin ETF? Yeah, I can see where "the music is playing" (good movie by the way, Jeremy Irons, IIRC). How about "virtual finances"-squared: Bitcoin futures, Bitcoin swaps, high-leverage Bitcoin shorts and longs? Or, get ready for this one, how about a Bitcoin life insurance fund with a guaranteed* yield of, lets say, 49%? Only too bad that life itself is the most dangerous of all and that there ain't no insurance against it.
 
Sorry DOUBLE YAWN!

It is to volatile and there is no I mean no protective umbrella. I agree big banks blow or is it suck?! THATS WHY THERE ARE CREDIT UNIONS. YES TRUE BANKING WITH A (brace youself) COMMUNAL SOCIAL CONSCIENCE!

That being said I don't have a problem with Paypal yeah the fees could be less but it works and it works well. The only problem I have ever had with Ebay or Paypal has been other people not holding up there end of it. Bad info or mis advertisement or just plain old did you read the listing or did you choose to ignore the info and hope you where buying something else!

I agree people will do bad things with money no matter what form but Bitcoin is not there yet.
 
I'm not sure if this means that ETFs have run their course or that BITCOIN is jumping the shark but some wall street types are talking about an ETF that tracks the value of bitcoin... Sounds a little silly.

I am not an expert on this kind of stuff at all, but if this just tracked the "value" (index), it would be some kind of ETC, I think (not sure that's better or worse). An ETF is a (usually passively but sometimes actively managed) share in a "special asset", so it's a bit different. Anyway, it'd say it's a way of buying Bitcoins indirectly -- or, in cyberspace language, it's just another way of "mining".

Is it silly? Yes, but it's also compellingly logical if you are thinking in terms of profit-making (usually one-time purchase fee to be paid to the bank/trader/emitter, plus some 0-1% annual fee to be payed by the ETFs buyer/owner in part to the bank for safely storing your "share certificate/document" on a centralized harddrive computer network, and the other part for the managing (expenses and salaries), indexing, printing of prospects etc.; that is, "profit" deduced and withheld directly from the profit margin or, in the case there is no profit margin cos Bitcoins and/or the ETFs suddenly fall in value, to be paid by the ETF buyer/owner nonetheless. So this is not silly at all; it's a sure way for the emitter and everybody else involved in selling this stuff to make money, entirely decoupled from the "real" value of a Bitcoin -- but coupled of course with a guarantee* that owners/holders will participate in profits (i.e. either price of ETF share goes up [could sell], or reinvestment of dividend [share gets bigger], or Bitcoin dividend is paid out [maybe as "bytes" ;) to the smart phone of your choice (discourse of freedom)].

Is it outrageous? Yes, outrageously funny. For two reasons. First, because it's a way of buying into something indirectly/virtually that has been virtual from the start. Second, because I'd think this goes counter to the alleged independence of this currency, since it indirectly subjects Bitcoins to (or at least part of the entire Bitcoin sum) to the very same mechanisms and regulations that all other "virtual" products" (ETCs, ETFs, all kinds of investment funds, bonds, etc) have to follow. And an ETF (a percentage of it at least) could be used for emitting all sorts of derivatives (the gambling game). On the other hand, with a Bitcoin ETF it seems that this alternate currency (value is controlled strictly by the demand/trade) now finally becomes truly market-controlled -- i.e. stock market controlled -- and it's a weird market for sure.

Believe me, I am not an expert on this kind of stuff at all, I just like to read the financial news. So you can totally trust me and my virtual expertise ;) Would I buy into Bitcoin ETFs? Hell, no way!! But I'm afraid some crazy caffe latte sucking investment people working at banks and, even worse, insurance companies(!) might consider.

Is Bitcoins, as the alternate currency that some media and financial think tank nutheads claim it to be, a real alternative to the present financial system (Satoshi, I believe, means "rise from the ashes" [2008/2009 crash] -- eh, who or what is rising here)? Well, I don't really think it is. But maybe Star Trek is... or Avatar... or Surrogate... or, to give a less fictitious example, Second Life ;)

It's hot here in Tokyo, so I'm going for a "liquid asset" now, paid for with "real" money, called the (Ponzi-fiat) yen, which I acquire by converting some of my intangible (Ponzi) book money to tangible (fiat) paper money. Too bad I don't know how to DIY beer, so I'm forced to trade...
 
DIY beer is not that hard... Easier than DIY currency.  8)

Speaking of currency can you hear the yen printing presses running 24x7 from where you live? Japan central bankers are trying to break the deflationary cycle they've been stuck in for decades.

ETF/ETC don't remember, don't care... These are all vehicles for the gamblers on wall street to bet on whether they'll go up or down. Bitcoin fund is not an investment since there is no underlying business, no profits.

I am increasingly believing the wall street is not just profiting from creating these bets, but the sharks on wall street have figured out how to make money whenever the prices change. With high speed access they can take the pulse of market prices in mSec and front run price trends. I am not a fan of more government regulation, but they need to stop high speed trading, it is just skimming wealth from both sellers and buyers.  [/rant]

JR
 

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