OPEC+ is a cartel operating in plain sight.
Unfettered oil drilling and Fracking during the Trump administration generated enough excess oil and NG supply in the margin to affect international prices downward. Now we have an anti-energy industry administration that has thwarted the fossil fuel industry, and the expected result is higher prices.
Oil and NG may not be a completely free market but supplies are generally fungible enough that excess US exports could lower prices. Anyone old enough to remember the 70s will recall that government price controls didn't work, supply just dried up. As soon as the price controls were removed and market pricing was allowed to operate we got copious supply at the new higher market prices.
Right now we are also in a hole because the ESG/climate change harpies have discouraged big oil companies from exploring and developing new oil fields.
Putin's invasion of the Ukraine has mainly impacted oil/NG supply since sanctions are the only effective lever available to attempt to get him to behave. It isn't working very well because the EU can't get off the Russian energy teat overnight. However this is reducing supply somewhat raising prices. Future prices will rise even more as EU sanctions kick in, and China reopens Shanghai.
If worried about oil, you don't want to think about the grain embargoed in the Ukraine.
JR