"Legalize it".... and free market forces

[JohnRoberts]

Generally you would expect legalizing (or decriminalizing) the long illegal cannabis plant, to reduce street prices. In CO the current supply shortage has pushed up prices to some $400 an ounce.  I expect this will trigger new investment in expanding supply.

It sure looks to me like this recent legislation is expanding the market for pot use.

I'll leave it to others to debate if our economy needs more recreational drug use, while I do not oppose decriminalization per se, not sure I would ever tolerate impaired workers. I hope none of this new demand gets satisfied by criminal supply chains. Mexico and several countries in So America are a mess because of illegal US drug. One SA country just legalized production there hoping to export it.

Interesting times... 

JR

PS: An obscure stat about unemployment is that some 3-4 Million jobs go unfilled for sundry reasons... Showing up on time and sober every day sober may get a little harder in CO, but hopefully $400 a lid will reduce use a little among the unemployed. Those prices are too rich for my blood, unless it comes with 3D hallucinations and surround sound. 

 

[dmp]

There probably hasn't been enough time for the prices to come down to what you pay for oregano. But I don't see why it won't
Lookup the stats on prescription drug abuse in the US - pretty staggering.
But like the whole history of the 'war' on drugs, it matters what kind of drug you're abusing because that correlates with your soci-economic status.

I heard a funny joke, pretty soon in order to have a cigarette a person will have to pretend they're smoking a joint.

 

[JohnRoberts]

We'll see how cheap it gets... There are already stiff taxes in it. I hope they don't try to milk so much taxes that the criminal supply pipelines are kept active.

There is still significant illegal traffic of otherwise legal cigarets to avoid local taxation.

In Canada there was significant home brew beer activity to avoid taxation on suds.

For contrast it is interesting to see Netherlands and Switzerland walk back some of their famous experiments with decriminalized drug use.

Everything has unintended consequences. While there is no simple answer, we need to prevent supporting illegal supply chains for drugs that people will buy anyhow. Making it too easy is something to manage for public health reasons.

JR

PS: E-cigs seem a win-win if indeed they eliminate all carcinogens associated with conventional smoking. I lost two siblings to cancer who were smokers when younger so I am all in favor of healthier alternatives. The elephant in the room, wrt cigarettes is that governments have become dependent on continuing conventional cigarette sales for the huge tax revenues that they are accustomed to getting and spending. I suspect the new e-cig industry will be under pressure from governments to make up a share of lost revenue to the now dependent lawmakers. 

 

[fazer]

The state in the last ballot issue kept pot legal but added a higher excise tax than on booze.  I felt it was a stupid move if your trying to keep cartels out of the pot business.  To me the cheaper it is or correlates to booze tax,  the less incentive to smuggle it in.  I'm all for making it legal and move on to other problems.  The tax revenue will be a boost to the state but don't tax it so hard it makes it profitable to smuggle it.  Will see how it plays out.  I have not been to any of the shops at this time but there were days in my youth I dreamed about this day.  To little to late.

 

[gyraf]

I hope they don't try to milk so much taxes that the criminal supply pipelines are kept active.

Don't hold your breath. There are probably deeper-running political reasons for keeping the criminal suppliers in the loop - not because of corruption, but because it's important and comforting to have an evil and well-known enemy.

Jakob E.

 

[Landins]

How is transparancy on prodution conditions of these drugs? In my profession i meet a lot of refugees from afghanistan, iran, and iraq and the tell terrible stories on how drug-production causes devestaion in these parts of the world as it is the main income for the muhajedin, alqaida and so forth.

 

[JohnRoberts]

How is transparancy on prodution conditions of these drugs? In my profession i meet a lot of refugees from afghanistan, iran, and iraq and the tell terrible stories on how drug-production causes devestaion in these parts of the world as it is the main income for the muhajedin, alqaida and so forth.

I believe CO is using micro-tagging or RFID sensors, similar to how major retailers manage inventory to track legally grown pot  High retail prices and increased demand will prop up the illegal trade.

====
Yes Opium/Heroin is still the primary source of income for warlords and sundry miscreants in Afghanistan. The lack of a legal sustainable private economy in Afghanistan is the larger part of the long term problem. One narrow possibility is a minerals mining industry with some Chinese investment The (bad) future outcome for Afghanistan was pretty much cast in stone, when we announced our firm withdrawal dates. All the bad guys need to do is wait us out after we unilaterally announced that we were pulling out. Can anybody even pretend that the weak and corrupt Afghanistan government  is capable of doing it alone?   

I speculated back years ago that the mini-surge in Afghanistan would not do as well as the surge did in Iraq because they were different countries with different strengths and weaknesses (and not enough troops committed). Worse yet after a peace is won, there is no strong local government to stand up and maintain the peace.  Iraq was more capable, but our too abrupt withdrawal from Iraq has left the Malaki government (without an air force) unable to prevent a resurgence of Alkeida in Fallujah. There is already political tension because Fallujah and baghdad because Fallujah is dominantly Sunni and Iraq is majority Shia (democracy is biotch after years of minority dictatorship rule). The same religious tension erupting all around the middle east as we withdraw, and lose influence.

I don't claim there are easy answers, but don't agree with our recent policy. The future hasn't happened yet, but Iran is getting stronger as we roll back sanctions, in return for lip service (the N Korean plan for acquiring nuclear weapons... say anything but keep the centrifuges spinning).

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

I hope they don't try to milk so much taxes that the criminal supply pipelines are kept active.

Don't hold your breath. There are probably deeper-running political reasons for keeping the criminal suppliers in the loop - not because of corruption, but because it's important and comforting to have an evil and well-known enemy.

Jakob E.

Defunding the criminal drug industry is one of the few good reasons for decriminalization. The political class will never run out of false bogie-men propped up to scare us with (global warming anyone?) .

JR

 

[fazer]

Pot IMO is not in the same class as opium/heroin.  I mostly want drugs to becoming a medical addressed problem.  However, when it comes to meth/crack, I don't have an answer.  What a destructive drug.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Yup I do not buy the gateway drug arguments about pot... I partook my share back in the '60s and experimented with some more serious stuff, but was able to move on... Some might criticize my beer habit, but it hasn't killed me yet.

There is a significant difference between legalizing recreational use of drugs, and programs like the free methadone and needle swaps in Switzerland to reduce harm from disease vectors (like Aids) that propagate in that sub community from needle sharing and the like.

We need to be smart about this and ever alert for unintended consequences. In 2012 Holland closed down the pot tourism trade by limiting pot use to local residents who are members of private clubs. Holland has also classified cannabis with more than 15% THC (the active ingredient) as a hard drug, so apparently they see a need for that distinction from their national experiment.

High times.... at least in some states.

Re: cocaine, I still have to wonder who is consuming all the illegal drugs sold in the US.. None of my neighbors or friends AFAIK partake in the harder bad stuff... and I know precious few old hippies who still smoke the whacky tobaccy.

I was remarking on the $400 price, but reflecting on inflation since the '60's that is not completely insane if the quality (THC content) has also dramatically increased. Back in the day it was more like $15 a typical lid, and maybe $35 for really primo stuff. Budweiser beer was $0.50 a quart.  You do the inflation math.  I don't think Budweiser is $10 a quart now, but some imported premium beers could be up in that ballpark.

JR

 

[Landins]

I do agree that international presence is critical for maintaining structure i afghanistan and iraq. And as you say, first and foremost afghanistan as it is a country very diverse ethnical between pashtu and hazaragi, a conflict giving its outcome in great class differences. But the development is tragic as aghanistan in the sixties-seventien were quite liberal and opened minded.

My comment was not to nag on the american foreign policys. Its just interesting too se how this legalization is argumented for. In sweden this would never happen as it would undermine policys anti drug policys. The anti drug policys are often mostly focused on effects on the individual physical and psychologival health not the global production peespective.  Thats all im sayin.

And its a delicate issue. Methadone programs and needle swapping has been wildly debated here in sweden also.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I do agree that international presence is critical for maintaining structure i afghanistan and iraq. And as you say, first and foremost afghanistan as it is a country very diverse ethnical between pashtu and hazaragi, a conflict giving its outcome in great class differences. But the development is tragic as aghanistan in the sixties-seventien were quite liberal and opened minded.

My comment was not to nag on the american foreign policys. Its just interesting too se how this legalization is argumented for. In sweden this would never happen as it would undermine policys anti drug policys. The anti drug policys are often mostly focused on effects on the individual physical and psychologival health not the global production peespective.  Thats all im sayin.

And its a delicate issue. Methadone programs and needle swapping has been wildly debated here in sweden also.

Funny, legalizing Opium/Heroin might provide Afghanistan with a sustainable revenue stream.  I don't see the world going for that.

Yes, Afghanistan used to have ski resorts and much more free wheeling culture.

The west or at least poorly informed Americans tend to conflate the Taliban with Alkeida, While it appears any association between the two was out of convenience, and perhaps a shared common enemy (us). 

Pakistan has been deathly afraid of India trying to surround Pakistan by developing a presence along the northern border too, by aligning with groups in Afghanistan. The Taliban are mainly from northern tribal regions of Pakistan and secretly(?)  supported by Pakistan spy agency for years to help control northern Pakistan/southern Afghanistan border region.

it is natural for Pakistan to operate in their national self interest (to defend against perceived threat from India), so their real relationship with the Taliban is not all it appears. 

JR

 

[Gold]

so their real relationship with the Taliban is not all it appears. 

Which Taliban are you talking about? There is more than one group that calls its self Taliban. They have different agendas.

I'm for full legalization of marijuana.

I think you could walk into any town in America and be able to find some marijuana in two hours or less. The use is pretty expanded already.

 

[JohnRoberts]

so their real relationship with the Taliban is not all it appears. 

Which Taliban are you talking about? There is more than one group that calls its self Taliban. They have different agendas.

I don't know which ones are you referring to. There is an ultra conservative religious group from northern Pakistan/Southern Afghanistan that are currently negotiating with Karzai about the new order after the US/Nato presence winds down. While there are probably multiple sub factions, they have an apparent leadership to represent them.  The Taliban opened an office in Qatar last summer presumably to use to negotiate with US and Afghanistan without risking a drone up their butt. They closed the office over a flap about who was the real government of Afghanistan (they were for 5 years, before they got removed from power after 9/11 for allowing Alkaida safe haven there.)

I'm for full legalization of marijuana.

I think you could walk into any town in America and be able to find some marijuana in two hours or less. The use is pretty expanded already.

I would be tempted to take that bet... They don't even sell beer here in Hickory MS. While I don't doubt some of the young locals could find some without a long drive. I can smell grass on regular smokers and I can't say that I've ever smelled any during chance encounters with locals in my small town.  When I worked at Peavey (25 miles away in the big city  ;D ) I smelled it on a few co-workers, but as long as they weren't operating heavy machinery or driving a fork lift I didn't mess with them. I even ran into it at some parties in MS. I don't even remember last time I toked up. Probably decades ago.

Since it has been widely used for thousands of years and only became illegal here in the 1930s. I'm sure it's around. Back in the '60s I had no trouble finding it in Boston, but it was not very available in small town NJ when I was growing up there. It was hard to avoid it in the 60's in Boston at any large public gathering like anti-war rallies, not that anyone would want to avoid it.  8)

JR

 

[bitman]

I used to smoke weed quite regularly.
At age 40 some 10 years ago, I couldn't score for two weeks and figured wth, I'll quit.

Now it's available in a store down the street.  :-\

 

[Gold]

I don't know which ones are you referring to. There is an ultra conservative religious group from northern Pakistan/Southern Afghanistan that are currently negotiating with Karzai about the new order after the US/Nato presence winds down. While there are probably multiple sub factions, they have an apparent leadership to represent them.  The Taliban opened an office in Qatar last summer presumably to use to negotiate with US and Afghanistan without risking a drone up their butt. They closed the office over a flap about who was the real government of Afghanistan (they were for 5 years, before they got removed from power after 9/11 for allowing Alkaida safe haven there.)

There is leadership based in Pakistan and other leadership in Afghanistan. The Pakistani faction is generally more radical. I believe the Qatar office was the Pakistani faction. They flew a Taliban flag over the office which got it shut down fast.

 

[CJ]

they are selling tours of pot stores in CO  so normies can check out the freaks, wtf, over?

the second i quit they make it legal in washington, oh well, never busted during the 40 years i did the huff and puff,

however, i did get a DUI on the bicycle after i fell over and cracked me noggin,

made the papers, "Peddling While Pickled" they called it, which i thought was rather creative,

 

[JohnRoberts]

I don't know which ones are you referring to. There is an ultra conservative religious group from northern Pakistan/Southern Afghanistan that are currently negotiating with Karzai about the new order after the US/Nato presence winds down. While there are probably multiple sub factions, they have an apparent leadership to represent them.  The Taliban opened an office in Qatar last summer presumably to use to negotiate with US and Afghanistan without risking a drone up their butt. They closed the office over a flap about who was the real government of Afghanistan (they were for 5 years, before they got removed from power after 9/11 for allowing Alkaida safe haven there.)

There is leadership based in Pakistan and other leadership in Afghanistan. The Pakistani faction is generally more radical. I believe the Qatar office was the Pakistani faction. They flew a Taliban flag over the office which got it shut down fast.

Well the flag they flew in Qatar that caused the flap, said they were the official government of Afghanistan, and they were presumably there to negotiate with US and Afghanistan. It isn't clear why a Pakistani fraction would be active in those negotiations. 

BTW militants just assassinated the top terror cop in Pakistan.

Whatever... Odd when religious groups practice murder, but not the first and only religion to do that. I think another moderate political leader in Lebanon just got assassinated (car bomb) recently. The Syrian fighting is putting stress on it's neighbors. 

JR

 

[jdbakker]

[...] In 2012 Holland closed down the pot tourism trade by limiting pot use to local residents who are members of private clubs.

The membership plan ("wietpas") has been dropped; as of 2013 you have to be a resident of .nl for a coffee shop holder to be allowed to sell you marihuana. I am informed that people get carded these days. This addresses the very real issue that foreign customers, drawn by novelty, necessity or even enterpreneurial spirit, would create much more than their fair share of trouble, especially in border provinces and of course in Amsterdam.

(Incidentally the legal age to buy any kind of alcohol has just been raised from 16 to 18.)

Holland has also classified cannabis with more than 15% THC (the active ingredient) as a hard drug, so apparently they see a need for that distinction from their national experiment.

That was a proposal which has since been dropped. One might be forgiven to think that it was a politically motivated move to show that "something was being done", without a great deal of basis in either research or daily practice.

JD "you might say that, I couldn't possibly comment" B.
[when abroad mentioning that I'm from Amsterdam tends to elicit a knowing smile. Personally I consider weed to be similar to the ubiquitous flower bulbs -- the tourists get all excited, I can't be bothered]

 

[CJ]

while we are on this counter culture thang, they made a movie out of Kerouac's novel Big Sur if you dig on all that beat generation, Burroughs, Ginsberg, Tom Wolfe  etc,

Neil Cassady did 2 years in San Quentin for a couple of sticks of Tea, hard to believe that way it was back then,

always had to vacuum out the car before going to the Mustang Ranch in Nevada,

still do,  ;D

weed had a lot of seeds in it when we were growing up,

but it was only 10 bucks a Z, what are you kids paying nowadays? 

of course you had to smoke half the bag to catch a buzz, 

thought i would die of lung cancer by 21 but it who gave a rats ass,

now they find that it shrinks tumors, wtf, over?