Semiconductors global shortage

[saint gillis]

There is now this global semiconductors shortage, that seems to be a problem mostly for parts made of pure silicon wafer (CPUs and GPUs).
Is it also affecting cheaper parts like transistors, or integrated and small MCUs ?

 

[JohnRoberts]

Semiconductor makers will increase production, its what they do. That factory in Japan damaged by fire will be back on line soon enough. The automotive industry used to be the poster boy for "just in time" inventory, forcing vendors to locate facilities near their production lines. That system broke down with supply disruptions and car makers are now investing in "just in case" inventory. This will make cars more expensive but should make supply smoother.

I suspect many companies mis-forecast demand based on the unknown pandemic.

For years the central bankers had trouble hitting 2% inflation. I predict they won't have the problem now. The current debate is whether recent inflation will be transitory. I think business will continue to enjoy remote work efficiencies but no free lunch so there are other costs that IMO will stay with us.

JR

 

[Rochey]

John,

I'm caught in the middle of this Semiconductor Shortage. I can only attribute it to people with disposable income - in the US, people spent a fortune on restaurants every week, and starbucks and lunch at work etc. All that came to a stop for 12 months. Add to that the car guys all cancelling their orders, then becoming suprised when people dumped public transport and spent some of that disposable income on nicer cars.

A friend in the car business told me that people were able to afford monthly payments for cars, but didn't have lump sums for downpayments. The US Governments payouts took care of many.

My experience so far - restaurants are MUCH more expensive to dine at, than they used to be.

 

[JohnRoberts]

John,

I'm caught in the middle of this Semiconductor Shortage. I can only attribute it to people with disposable income - in the US, people spent a fortune on restaurants every week, and starbucks and lunch at work etc. All that came to a stop for 12 months. Add to that the car guys all cancelling their orders, then becoming suprised when people dumped public transport and spent some of that disposable income on nicer cars.

I am not sure what this (IC shortage) has to do with disposable income. The factory fire in Japan temporarily shuttered a major source of silicon. I am suspicious that industry (car and others) forecasts grossly underestimated consumer spending. The government stimulus and additional unemployment supplements has supported consumer spending.... and covid concerns have encouraged people to move out of cities often beyond the reach of public transportation. Used cars and new cars have both seen massive price upticks.

A friend in the car business told me that people were able to afford monthly payments for cars, but didn't have lump sums for downpayments. The US Governments payouts took care of many.

Yes this is a real time economics experiment into the impact of incentives. Pay people more to not work and guess what, less people take jobs, of course Covid fears, and closed schools are also a factor.

My experience so far - restaurants are MUCH more expensive to dine at, than they used to be.

Restaurants traditionally pay low wages expecting tip income to make up the difference. With in person dining only now opening up again many restaurants and fast food chains are scrambling to get old employees back and/or hire new ones. This week on my shopping trip I noticed help wanted signs in several fast food location. This will of course put upward pressure on wages (and hiring bonuses).

The elephant in the room is "inflation". The central bankers predict this inflation bump (gas prices, etc) will be transitory. There are something like 8 million unfilled job openings, when benefits run out some major fraction of these unemployed should return to the workforce. This could somewhat moderate wage inflation but I expect general inflation will be with us for some time.

Of course the future hasn't happened yet so I could be wrong.

JR

 

[Rochey]

I am not sure what this (IC shortage) has to do with disposable income. The factory fire in Japan temporarily shuttered a major source of silicon. I am suspicious that industry (car and others) forecasts grossly underestimated consumer spending. The government stimulus and additional unemployment supplements has supported consumer spending.... and covid concerns have encouraged people to move out of cities often beyond the reach of public transportation. Used cars and new cars have both seen massive price upticks.

John,

my datapoint here is that the GDP of the US didn't drop that much. It's pretty clear that many white collar workers retained employment but shifted to being isolated at home. Same income, less external costs (dining out, vacations etc). Add to that, people realizing that their home entertainment was the only "time off" they had - new TV's, Laptops, Phones -- and Cars (because who wants to share the same air as the great unwashed!) became the things that people spent that disposable income on.

Garner reported laptop sales up 11% in 2020 vs 2019.
Smart TV sales expected to grow almost 30% in 2021.

Sadly - many people in retail and hospitality _did_ lose their jobs. I think those people truly did need the financial support from the government, along with many of the businesses involved in those industries. But I think we all know people that received a check and bought something that they wouldn't normally spend their money on. I have examples of facebook threads of audiophiles planning what to spend their payout on.

...

Good for the companies I guess.

 

[JohnRoberts]

The technical term is "helicopter money" and the US govt is talking about spreading around even more (I have one check I haven't even cashed or deposited yet but the check is good for one year). This largess has distorted much economic activity on top of the Covid shutdowns.

I am waiting for bars and restaurants to open in Hickory, but there weren't any open before Covid so I could have a long wait.

JR

 

[rcamprodon]

No longer finding any stock for PCM1690 and AK5558 converters which I use in my designs. Seems like nobody knows when they will be available (Mouser, RS, Digikey and others). Is it a sign of a global shortage of IC parts?

RCM

 

[john12ax7]

I'm seeing a shortage of many different things. ICs yes, but even things like pots are now months out when it used to be in stock or at worst weeks away.

 

[scott2000]

I'm seeing a shortage of many different things. ICs yes, but even things like pots are now months out when it used to be in stock or at worst weeks away.

Noticed this too.

Had to place an order from Jameco for my first time since the other places were out of what I was looking for... Was a good experience actually...Fast...

 

[Brian Roth]

I've used Jameco off and on for many years. Never had a problem. They recently came through for me with 74xx TTL chips I needed to service a MCI recorder.

Bri