Societal collapse in mid 21st century

[living sounds]

https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3x...it-prediction-that-society-will-collapse-soon

 

[JohnRoberts]

oh oh.... At least we are right on schedule...

I thought we would be underwater by now.

JR

 

[rob_gould]

I thought we would be underwater by now.

JR

Well, if you live in parts of Germany, Belgium or the Netherlands...

 

[ruffrecords]

Its Covid freedom day today in the UK. Nearly every restriction has been removed. Everyone is going to the beach. We will be in lock down again before Christmas. That should stunt growth a bit.

Cheers

Ian

 

[JohnRoberts]

Well, if you live in parts of Germany, Belgium or the Netherlands...

I've already had more than an inch of rain this morning, but I understand the difference between weather and climate.

The current flooding in Europe will redraw the 100 year flood map. Good luck to any forum members at risk of harm.

JR

 

[PermO]

A reason for the current flooding has to do with making weather predicitions and the watermanagement.

A few years ago a very wet summer was predicted, so our watermanagment kept all the levels of the inland watersystems and lake very low, to be able to handle lots of rain, well, that did not fall and a great drought was the result, it took about 3 years to recover from that.

This year, again a dry and hot summer was predicted, to not make the same mistake again they kept water levels high all over the country so we would not end up with the drought again we just recovered from...

But,... that did not happen, instead we got record rainfall... and the asociated flooding.

 

[Tubetec]

I have witnesed and done some sailing in Hollands canals and lakes , its a truely amazing feat of engineering . One time me and a few friends got a serious repremand from the ranger for cycling out onto the polder , we kinda ended up getting off lightly though as we were just a bunch of Irish tourists , way too stoned on hash and weed cocktails for our own good . The old story of the boy who fisted a dyke and saved his country from ruin , I always got a little giggle off , I'd never really considered the dangers of flooding from upstream though , maybe its an even bigger problem in the future than the North Sea .

 

[user 37518]

https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3x...it-prediction-that-society-will-collapse-soon

Societal collapse by 2040? society has already collapsed!

But I guess it depends on what you mean with "societal collapse", if by that you mean climate and resources that is something different.

I can't remember exactly if it was Pius XII or John XXIII who said something like "society is now more corrupted than in the times of the flood", and that was said in the 50s or 60s.

 

[living sounds]

oh oh.... At least we are right on schedule...

I thought we would be underwater by now.

JR

Did you actually read the news article?

 

[living sounds]

A reason for the current flooding has to do with making weather predicitions and the watermanagement.

A few years ago a very wet summer was predicted, so our watermanagment kept all the levels of the inland watersystems and lake very low, to be able to handle lots of rain, well, that did not fall and a great drought was the result, it took about 3 years to recover from that.

This year, again a dry and hot summer was predicted, to not make the same mistake again they kept water levels high all over the country so we would not end up with the drought again we just recovered from...

But,... that did not happen, instead we got record rainfall... and the asociated flooding.

It has nothing to do with water management where I live, even though it was the same weather event. It was just way more precipitation in a shorter time frame than is normal and than the infrastructure can handle. Some areas got the amount of rain within 12 hours that usually falls within 2 months.

 

[living sounds]

Societal collapse by 2040? society has already collapsed!

But I guess it depends on what you mean with "societal collapse", if by that you mean climate and resources that is something different.

I can't remember exactly if it was Pius XII or John XXIII who said something like "society is now more corrupted than in the times of the flood", and that was said in the 50s or 60s.

Did you read the news article?

 

[JohnRoberts]

Did you actually read the news article?

No I skimmed it and it sounds like typical doom and gloom clap trap (note: future projections are rarely accurate).

Some groups are actually working to cause society to collapse.

I remian optimistic that they will lose, but sadly they are enjoying some recent success.

JR

 

[user 37518]

Did you read the news article?

I did, which is why I said that if "collapse of society" is seen from a resources, popullation, economic and enviromental point of view its something different, because in my view society has already collapsed as an institution.

It reminds me of Lord Kelvin, in 1898 in he predicted that only 400 years of oxygen supply remained on the planet due to the rate of burning combustibles, he was proven wrong in 1986. I also remember a prediction, not long ago which said that by the year 2000 there were not going to be enough resources for humanity.

Here is a list of failed predictions : 18 spectacularly wrong apocalyptic predictions made around the time of the first Earth Day in 1970, expect more this year | American Enterprise Institute - AEI

However, regarding your article in particular, which is just another variant of "climate change catastrophe", I am with Professor Peterson on this one:

 

[john12ax7]

The economics part is certainly on its way. A good portion of "growth" has been fueled by debt with lowering interest rates and monetary expansion creating an epic bubble. After decades of this that cycle is nearing its end.

 

[JohnRoberts]

The economics part is certainly on its way. A good portion of "growth" has been fueled by debt with lowering interest rates and monetary expansion creating an epic bubble. After decades of this that cycle is nearing its end.

Growth is fueled by capital investment. As more of that capital gets consumed by big government taxation, or servicing regulation, growth suffers.

It almost seems like some people consider GDP growth a bad thing.

JR

PS: we have huge economic issues but I see them getting worse not better..... of course the "we want more free sh__" crowd, is happy. Modern monetary theory is a fairy tale for government economists.

 

[living sounds]

The economics part is certainly on its way. A good portion of "growth" has been fueled by debt with lowering interest rates and monetary expansion creating an epic bubble. After decades of this that cycle is nearing its end.

Indeed but that would only be a normal ca. 70-80 years debt cycle, ending in a deleveraging phase.

This one is more fundamental. And climate change is only one element of it.

 

[Tubetec]

Modern consumerism is sucking the marrow out of the local economy , covid has pissed fuel on a fire already burning out of control . This 'throw away' mentality is the first thing that has to go , its not going to happen from the top down because big business and politics have been 69'ing each other right from the start .
So many of us here know the value of old gear and like giving a second life to even low fi (by modern standards) bits and bobs sometimes . I heard a story about a fairly spoilt kid a few years back , his Ipod was no longer top of the range , he stuck a screw driver in the charge port and wiggled it , made sure it would never work again . Parents caught the little shit out and said ,you want a new one , pay for it yourself .

 

[living sounds]

Modern consumerism is sucking the marrow out of the local economy , covid has pissed fuel on a fire already burning out of control . This 'throw away' mentality is the first thing that has to go , its not going to happen from the top down because big business and politics have been 69'ing each other right from the start .
So many of us here know the value of old gear and like giving a second life to even low fi (by modern standards) bits and bobs sometimes . I heard a story about a fairly spoilt kid a few years back , his Ipod was no longer top of the range , he stuck a screw driver in the charge port and wiggled it , made sure it would never work again . Parents caught the little shit out and said ,you want a new one , pay for it yourself .

Without these continually shrinking product cycles the economy would stall. Increase productivity and you need more consumption to keep the same amount of jobs. It's inevitable.

Also: Boston consulting group has found out decades ago that the middle sector of well-made but affordable products is the least profitable.

On top of that, products also reflect the increasing societal split into the rich and poor. There's a large sector of cheap throway goods for the poor, and another one of high end goods for the rich.

What is needed is a global system to prevent corporations and people from shielding themselves from accountability and their capital from taxation.

The question is how. Historically collapse (war) is what restarts the cycle. A frightening prospect...

 

[JohnRoberts]

The latest big lie I heard from the current administration is that increased government spending would "reduce" inflation.

That talking point must have been written by one of those modern monetary theory guys.

JR

 

[user 37518]

This 'throw away' mentality is the first thing that has to go , its not going to happen from the top down because big business and politics have been 69'ing each other right from the start .

I can't stand it, my cellphone company gives me a new phone for "free" (its not free obviously since I paid for it during my monthly payment) every year, I have new in box phones laying around in my closet because I don't see the point of replacing the one I already have, I don't want to get used to a new phone, I don't want to migrate all of my content to the new phone, I don't want to download all the apps, etc.. etc...

I know that technollogy evolves every day, but do we really need to ditch the "3 lense camera phone" for the new "5 lense camera phone"?