The China collapse thing and audio...?

[iomegaman]

I follow Peter he's pretty smart, but he's been saying this for a while...as a general rule his predictions are pretty spot on because he's not looking at what people tell him , he looks at roads and infrastructure and the capacity to do business in real time...


Face the music - China is collapsing

The impending collapse of China MIGHT affect the audio industry especially where the cheap stuff is getting popped out...it might be a good time to stock up on items that are available and useful (mic bodies/etc)...

Thoughts?

 

[JohnRoberts]

Sorry all I saw was some guy tapping spoons...
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The collapse of China would affect more than the audio industry.

China is definitely having some economic issues, but that comes with flawed central planning. Recently they appear to be hoarding commodities and critical materials***, something that a country might do before going to war in anticipation of sanctions and/or boycotts. They have been openly telegraphing their intentions to take back control over Taiwan for years (decades?).

But its difficult to predict the future...

JR

*** reportedly China purchased some oil from the US when President Biden drew down the SPR, and held it in storage (China has a SPR too but it's size is unknown). The senate passed an amendment to the annual defense bill this year to ban oil sales from the US SPR to China (and a few other like minded countries).

 

[cyrano]

I think the Chinese banks might be the first to collapse. That will start the dominoes falling.

Of course, the party will try to prevent that. Will they succeed? And how will that reflect on western banks?

 

[JohnRoberts]

I think the Chinese banks might be the first to collapse. That will start the dominoes falling.

the first shoe to drop is the big real estate/property developers and I think one or two may have already taken the bankruptcy hit (Evergrande, Sunoc). But this real estate collapse has been a long time coming.

Of course, the party will try to prevent that. Will they succeed? And how will that reflect on western banks?

I'm sure western banks were already affected but hopefully they were diversified.

It's hard to get accurate financial information out of China.

JR

 

[ruffrecords]

the first shoe to drop is the big real estate/property developers and I think one or two may have already taken the bankruptcy hit (Evergrande, Sunoc). But this real estate collapse has been a long time coming.

I read some time ago the real estate sector troubles were triggered by changes in central policy (I forget the details). Seems like they are shooting themselves in the foot.

Cheers

Ian

 

[iomegaman]

I actually think China's biggest problem is not the just party but the support of Xi...he does not trust anyone and has pretty much eliminated all the people around him who might tell him the truth or news he does not want to hear...this of course is SOP for a dictatorship, but in this case all of the power has become centralized in one guy who thinks he's smarter than everyone else in the room.


This problem gets compounded when you eliminate competent people who are there to help manage 1.4 billion other people...a 1/8" error becomes compounded at that scale...between the one child policy and then the REAL covid aftershock you are looking at a seriously unreported population decimation.


Of course we don't really know (especially don't know what segment of society)...

I read an article a while back about a state run motivational program aimed at the older generation asking them to commit suicide as an act of honor for the next generation...maybe Xi saw covid as a gift...who knows?

 

[cyrano]

Xi is also drowning himself in luxury. He bought a very expensive Arabian horse over here, just a few months ago. According to the seller, he'll be back for more. Not exactly communism anymore, is it?

 

[living sounds]

I read some time ago the real estate sector troubles were triggered by changes in central policy (I forget the details). Seems like they are shooting themselves in the foot.

Cheers

Ian

The real estate sector is a quarter of the economy. It's the only asset regular Chinese people can invest in, so they fed a gigantic bubble for decades. Lot's of empty buildings and many ghost towns.

And China has massive demographic, elite overproduction, environmental problems.

Still, predicting collapses hasn't been very successful historically.

 

[living sounds]

Xi is also drowning himself in luxury. He bought a very expensive Arabian horse over here, just a few months ago. According to the seller, he'll be back for more. Not exactly communism anymore, is it?

That's Communism in a nutshell - some are more equal than others.

 

[iomegaman]

The real estate sector is a quarter of the economy. It's the only asset regular Chinese people can invest in, so they fed a gigantic bubble for decades. Lot's of empty buildings and many ghost towns.

And China has massive demographic, elite overproduction, environmental problems.

Still, predicting collapses hasn't been very successful historically.

Agree 100% on predicting collapse...Peter Zeihan has a new vid today saying that predicting the collapse is a fools errand, but he DOES look at the housing issue and quoting one of China's own experts/investors...the data suggests that they are at MINIMUM overbuilt by 100% so that in a functional model your investment (housing being the only place you can actually create a sort of savings plan) is at best worth 25% what you paid for it.

I think the difficulty comes from seeing a communist model through a democratic paradigm...

I mean they print their own money just like everyone else, the difference is they can actually gut the entire system and start over with no one inside being able to resist...its the outward facing collapse that is interesting.

Makes me wonder about all the "China bought this land" kind of things I was hearing for years about owing china a buttload of money here rumors...was it communist china that bought stuff here?

 

[JohnRoberts]

Agree 100% on predicting collapse...Peter Zeihan has a new vid today saying that predicting the collapse is a fools errand, but he DOES look at the housing issue and quoting one of China's own experts/investors...the data suggests that they are at MINIMUM overbuilt by 100% so that in a functional model your investment (housing being the only place you can actually create a sort of savings plan) is at best worth 25% what you paid for it.

Any government including communism depends on maintaining at least some modicum of public support. Creating jobs and wealth keeps the people happy and the government in power.

I think the difficulty comes from seeing a communist model through a democratic paradigm...

?

I mean they print their own money just like everyone else, the difference is they can actually gut the entire system and start over with no one inside being able to resist...its the outward facing collapse that is interesting.

central planning and liberal use of government force

Makes me wonder about all the "China bought this land" kind of things I was hearing for years about owing china a buttload of money here rumors...was it communist china that bought stuff here?

China is not alone in buying US farmland,Bill Gates reportedly owns around 250,000 acres, but as the third wealthiest man, probably not a bad investment. There are many foreign land owners. Presumably a safe place to park wealth. There is some concern about China buying farmland near military installations.

JR

 

[fazer]

Agree 100% on predicting collapse...Peter Zeihan has a new vid today saying that predicting the collapse is a fools errand, but he DOES look at the housing issue and quoting one of China's own experts/investors...the data suggests that they are at MINIMUM overbuilt by 100% so that in a functional model your investment (housing being the only place you can actually create a sort of savings plan) is at best worth 25% what you paid for it.

I think the difficulty comes from seeing a communist model through a democratic paradigm...

I mean they print their own money just like everyone else, the difference is they can actually gut the entire system and start over with no one inside being able to resist...its the outward facing collapse that is interesting.

Makes me wonder about all the "China bought this land" kind of things I was hearing for years about owing china a buttload of money here rumors...was it communist china that bought stuff here?

I’ve been watching Peter for at least a year. There are people who don’t believe his analysis but it is very interesting and makes a lot of sense. Older demographics is everything in his analysis. Is it all true or is it just enough drama to get you to tune in? The idea of a collapsed China is truly a massive game changer. I’d have to go back also to last year thinking about his analysis on Russian Ukraine and seems to me he had it pegged how Russian wars are fought and went going back 500 years to show why protecting access to Russia consist of previous wars through some 7 geographic points. His history lesson. In his book “The End of the World is Just the Beginning “, is worth the price of the book. I enjoy tuning into his explanation of news events.

 

[user 41968]

They just recalled all their Pandas in the US.

 

[cyrano]

China is not alone in buying US farmland...

You can say that again. Saudi Arabia owns a bit in California. They use it to grow alfalfa. Contrary to US farmers, they have unlimited water rights. I suppose they have to feed those horses something...