COVID-19

[JohnRoberts]

and headlines like
"Young adults are driving the surge in coronavirus cases in Arizona, Florida, and Texas, officials say. Patients’ median ages are dropping."

Death rates in younger populations are lower, perhaps the only good news.

Older populations need to practice safe behaviors. I ran into my old local clinic nurse (my age) at the post office and she shared that her mother was complaining about her nursing home that wouldn't allow them out of their rooms. Perhaps one reason why that nursing home had zero Covid deaths.

JR

 

[Script]

"Young adults are driving the surge in coronavirus cases in..."

...Tokyo, reads the headline here.

Actually 70 percent of new infections are young/er people. Second biggest group or cluster(s) is in and around host and hostess entertainment bars.

I don't know about red light districts, but young people are indeed meeting here in Japan in larger groups again in parks, along the rivers and under bridges. Not all of them are wearing masks.

 

[JohnRoberts]

...Tokyo, reads the headline here.

Actually 70 percent of new infections are young/er people. Second biggest group or cluster(s) is in and around host and hostess entertainment bars.

I don't know about red light districts, but young people are indeed meeting here in Japan in larger groups again in parks, along the rivers and under bridges. Not all of them are wearing masks.

States with surging numbers are re-shutting bars where alcohol further reduces inhibitions. Some young people already don't social distance or practice safe mask use.

This is not unexpected and we know a lot more now than even a few months ago. The virus is still circulating and at-risk populations need to remain vigilant. Young people try not to kill your elders.

JR

 

[midwayfair]

States with surging numbers are re-shutting bars where alcohol further reduces inhibitions. Some young people already don't social distance or practice safe mask use.

It couldn't possibly be that 18-34 is the working age group least likely to be in a position to work from home -- nope, it has to be young people being irresponsible. EDIT: I can't help but notice your trust of headline writers in this case, contrary to your voiced skepticism elsewhere. I can't quite put my finger on when you trust the headlines and when you don't ...

Let's look at California (I picked the state because of its large population size, high number of cases total, and widespread testing among all age groups):

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID-19-Cases-by-Age-Group.aspx

24.3% of cases are 18-34.

Let's look at California age demographics:

https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/california/demographic-statistics

22.4% of the population are 20-34, and while it doesn't break down the 15-19 group that's 7.2% of the population, if you break it down evenly that accounts for at least the other 2% to get you to 24.2, and the age cohort has roughly the same infection rate as its population size, in fact it's very slightly underperforming.

Meanwhile, 60-64 -- which I think is your age group, right? -- is 3.4% of the population, but 5.9% of cases. Outperforming by almost double their population size! If I'm a headline writer, I'm probably more justified to say: Wow, 60-year-olds must be really irresponsible and dangerous and unwilling to do proper social distancing!

The 35-59 group is also slightly overperforming in CA based on their population size, but it's harder to tease apart the age brackets.

 

[JohnRoberts]

It couldn't possibly be that 18-34 is the working age group least likely to be in a position to work from home --

Sorry I am not aware of that criteria.

nope, it has to be young people being irresponsible.

many examples...  I can actually remember being young and I was not always responsible. I am glad to hear that you consider yourself responsible.

EDIT: I can't help but notice your trust of headline writers in this case, contrary to your voiced skepticism elsewhere. I can't quite put my finger on when you trust the headlines and when you don't ...

huh? mind reading again...

Let's look at California (I picked the state because of its large population size, high number of cases total, and widespread testing among all age groups):

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID-19-Cases-by-Age-Group.aspx

24.3% of cases are 18-34.

Let's look at California age demographics:

https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/california/demographic-statistics

22.4% of the population are 20-34, and while it doesn't break down the 15-19 group that's 7.2% of the population, if you break it down evenly that accounts for at least the other 2% to get you to 24.2, and the age cohort has roughly the same infection rate as its population size, in fact it's very slightly underperforming.

Meanwhile, 60-64 -- which I think is your age group, right?

I wish I was only 64.... : 

You seem to be ignoring that older age increases the risk of infection and bad results. Older people have weaker immune systems, so it is only logical that they would suffer a higher infection rate all else equal.

-- is 3.4% of the population, but 5.9% of cases. Outperforming by almost double their population size! If I'm a headline writer, I'm probably more justified to say: Wow, 60-year-olds must be really irresponsible and dangerous and unwilling to do proper social distancing!

The 35-59 group is also slightly overperforming in CA based on their population size, but it's harder to tease apart the age brackets.

I am not sure why you are taking this so personally. It is a fact of life that (most) young people are less responsible than adults.  Glad to hear that you are the exception.

Do you have an alternate explanation for why they would be re-closing bars?

JR

PS: We may recall the super-spreader event in South Korea a while back where one individual infected some tens of people in one night by bar hopping between several night clubs. https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/ominous-warning-for-world-governments-as-south-korea-hit-by-super-spreader-after-lockdowns-lifted/news-story/9f22fda0855c14721e5a46943cf751fc  FWIW that Korean super spreader was 29YO

 

[scott2000]

Guess it could be worse.... Or better depending on how you look at it....


https://www.ibtimes.com/china-puts-half-million-people-lockdown-beijing-fights-new-cluster-3001924

China imposed a strict lockdown on nearly half a million people in a province surrounding the capital to contain a fresh coronavirus cluster on Sunday, as authorities warned the outbreak was still "severe and complicated."

After China largely brought the virus under control, hundreds have been infected in Beijing and cases have emerged in neighbouring Hebei province in recent weeks.

Health officials said Sunday that Anxin county -- about 150 kilometres (90 miles) from Beijing -- will be "fully enclosed and controlled", the same strict measures imposed at the height of the pandemic in the city of Wuhan earlier this year.

Only one person from each family will be allowed to go out once a day to purchase necessities such as food and medicine, the county's epidemic prevention task force said in a statement.

will be "fully enclosed and controlled"

Sounds like jail

 

[midwayfair]

You seem to be ignoring that older age increases the risk of infection and bad results. Older people have weaker immune systems, so it is only logical that they would suffer a higher infection rate all else equal.

Do you have evidence that COVID-19 has a lower incidence of infection -- NOT poor outcome like death rates or hospitalizations -- based on age? And if you can't find the evidence, does that, in your mind, explain why people below retirement age but slightly older seem to have nearly double the infection rate of retirees and younger cohorts?

Considering that the 18-34 cohort is the age (a) most likely to need to be physically at work, (b) least likely to be able to afford not to work, and (c) more likely to live in highly populated areas (cities skew young, young people live in apartments, etc.), I am going to argue that the age group should experience an outsized rate of exposure and thus infection, and yet it's almost 1:1 in CA. This would seem to indicate that the age group is being more responsible than certain older groups that are still in the working population. I pushed back against the (unsubstantiated) narrative that the younger age group in the U.S. is driving recent infections by being a bunch of idiots partying in bars, and you call it "taking it personally."

I think you should also ask yourself what kind of bar owner opens during a pandemic. If the demographics of bar owners are anything like restaurant owners, they're men in their 40s and 50s. Middle aged. Is opening the petri dish more or less irresponsible than being one of the Really Stupid PeopleTM partying in it? Does the news you're reading discuss this, or does it just talk about the patrons? If it doesn't talk about the owners: Why? What are they communicating to you by omitting that bit of analysis? Why are they even talking about the age of the patrons to begin with and what does that do to how you consume that story?

p.s. Notice how I never mention my age group (or bars come to think of it) anywhere in my post?

 

[crazydoc]

Florida: %+covid tests as of May 31 age 15-44 years 38% =  (.38X54,764 )= 20,810 cases
+ tests 15-44yo as of June 27  51% = (.51X138,567) = 70,669 cases

From May31 to June 27, out of 83,803 total new cases, 49,859 were in the 15-45yo age group, for a rate of 59% of new cases that were in that group.

(Those two downloads for those dates were over 3000 pdf pages  :  )  https://www.floridadisaster.org/covid19/covid-19-data-reports/

 

[scott2000]

The ages are updated every day here under county cases by county as well to compare older stuff to......

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

Somebody was a Native Instruments Reaktor Newscool fan from the looks of it..lol

Yeah that State manual updates every day...It's huge...

You should check out Escambia's covid deaths in there......

There's like 4 or 5 people 100 and over!

 

[Script]

Virus confirmed in sewage water in Italy and Spain back in early 2019.

This would be quite something. Or just fake news ?
[irony]Must be fake cos if true, some other epic claims must be very wrong.[/irony]

[parody]No, no, no. We have it all wrong again. Back in early 2019 too the Chinese sure were in towns[/parody] :

- In Spain in March 2019
https://www.rt.com/news/493085-covid-spain-march-2019-sewage/

- In Italy in December 2019
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-sewage-idUSKBN23Q1J9

- And a 'tainted' 'biased' article here
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1192756.shtml

Either way, good if they can come closer to the source. Although knowing the source in the past doesn't change infectiousness today.

 

[scott2000]

It maybe comes from a giant alligator.

 

[living sounds]

- In Spain in March 2019
https://www.rt.com/news/493085-covid-spain-march-2019-sewage/

Maybe it should be renamed the Spanish Flu...

 

[cyrano]

It's a slow virus.

It can go undetected for years. And you need a decent number of infections before it is detectable in sewage.

Oh, BTW. The largest known incubation time is over half a century, in the case of prions. Look at how long mad cow disease evaded detection.
Yep, the MCD crisis is over, but you might still get it, if you're old.

 

[scott2000]

I can't shake the feeling that most of the articles ,and more and more studies,  are starting to sound the same to me...

Here's one. Not peer reviewed yet but still interesting..

https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-scientists-say-icy-moon-europa-may-be-best-spot-to-check-for-alien-life/

 

[JohnRoberts]

One bar in Michigan is reportedly linked to 85 (asymptomatic) cases of COVID....  I suspect these asymptomatic infections can spread to high risk groups, otherwise what's the problem?
===
I just did an informal review of my local small town post office... So far I was the only one wearing a mask (and gloves) today, besides the postmaster.

JR

 

[scott2000]

One bar in Michigan is reportedly linked to 85 (asymptomatic) cases of COVID.... 

Well there you go... ;D

 

[crazydoc]

One bar in Michigan is reportedly linked to 85 (asymptomatic) cases of COVID....  I suspect these asymptomatic infections can spread to high risk groups, otherwise what's the problem?
===
I just did an informal review of my local small town post office... So far I was the only one wearing a mask (and gloves) today, besides the postmaster.

JR

I went to the PO the day after CA mandated masks. I asked the clerk why she wasn't wearing a mask. She said she'd gotten an email saying she should wear one, but thought it was silly, and besides "Americans are free - the government can't make us wear a mask." I pleasantly explained to her the purpose of it, to protect others, and left.

I went back again a few days ago and she still wasn't wearing one. I wanted to tell her that if people were smart enough to know they should wear a mask the government wouldn't have to tell them to wear one, but thought better of it to avoid jeopardizing my mail service. I just have to accept that I live in a country of assholes.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I went to the PO the day after CA mandated masks. I asked the clerk why she wasn't wearing a mask. She said she'd gotten an email saying she should wear one, but thought it was silly, and besides "Americans are free - the government can't make us wear a mask." I pleasantly explained to her the purpose of it, to protect others, and left.

I would chalk this up to natural selection, but ignorant younger people could kill older at risk populations with casual transmission.

I went back again a few days ago and she still wasn't wearing one. I wanted to tell her that if people were smart enough to know they should wear a mask the government wouldn't have to tell them to wear one, but thought better of it to avoid jeopardizing my mail service. I just have to accept that I live in a country of assholes.

Postal workers are already stereotyped. The term "going postal" does not mean calm and collected. 

If it wasn't for all the ignorant A__holes we'd have to work a lot harder to succeed.

JR

 

[scott2000]

I would chalk this up to natural selection, but ignorant younger people could kill older at risk populations with casual transmission.

My Father in Law most likely caught the bug that killed him back in 2018.......He was pretty active....always going out to eat and shop with his daughters... But had struggled with COPD.... 
I guess if there was nowhere to go I could see him maybe still being here....

Heck, if it weren't for hospice, I suspect he might.....But that's another story....

There's this one business/profession that really got uptight when a study was released  implying that they were contributing to an enormous amount of deaths every year. So a different study  was done to really sift through the data and make sure to look very closely at other circumstances that may factor in.
Basically not to allow a data algorithm based on insurance codes and look towards a more specific set of data that was more realistic.. Of course this made a huge difference in how things turned out. Not sure if this was done for liability or just ego.

Sure would suck to find out the same care isn't being taken  when the consequences of  not are shutting down economies and upending people's lives, and creating massive liability circumstances for many businesses and people. . That would be sh*tty.... And we know where sh*t comes from.

 

[JohnRoberts]

The last year I could find data for (2018) 2.8M people died in the US....

Death is all around us, but only a tiny handful become newsworthy (mostly to scare us with "this could be you" inferences). Of course when you get older this really could be you.

JR