COVID-19

[Script]

If everybody is wearing masks, the risk of infection for others is reduced to 50% on sender and an additional 40% on receiver end. This makes a total reduction to how many percent for all ?

Statistically, maybe 20% of infected people cause 80% of new infections
(superspreading) . Problem is these 20% cannot be identified before the fact. But if everybody wore masks consistently, there's also less need to identify them. Number of new infections should get slowed down.

All the above only statistically true and provided of course that masks are worn with absolute consistency...  :-*

 

[living sounds]

In the summer a study on hamsters was published regarding effectiveness of masks.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3084779/coronavirus-hamster-research-proof-effectiveness

The reduction in infections (small sample size, so not very reliable) for the combined used of masks on both the infected and the healthy hamsters cages was 75%.

 

[crazydoc]

In the summer a study on hamsters was published regarding effectiveness of masks.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3084779/coronavirus-hamster-research-proof-effectiveness

The reduction in infections (small sample size, so not very reliable) for the combined used of masks on both the infected and the healthy hamsters cages was 75%.

Well shit, I went to the site because I wanted to see pictures of hamsters wearing masks, and how they got the hamsters to wear them (I figured it might be helpful in getting folks with hamster mentalities in the US to wear them.) No such luck!

 

[living sounds]

Well sh*t, I went to the site because I wanted to see pictures of hamsters wearing masks, and how they got the hamsters to wear them (I figured it might be helpful in getting folks with hamster mentalities in the US to wear them.) No such luck!

There you go:

https://www.understandinganimalresearch.org.uk/news/research-medical-benefits/masks-reduce-covid-19-transmission-between-hamsters/

 

[crazydoc]

Thanks, but that's a chinchilla - I guess they're smarter than hamsters, illustrating that people who wear face masks are smarter than those who don't. 

 

[crazydoc]

This too will pass... I predict things will get a lot better (at least the news about it) after the election no matter who wins.

Maybe somewhere down the line in 2021 - of course by definition that will be "after the election." But I'd be willing to bet a large chunk of cash that the sh*t is really going to hit the fan pandemic-wise for the rest of this year here in "Murica, and has nothing to do with politics except for those in the basket of deplorables that refuse to do what's necessary for improvement. Hold on to your hat - this train is chuggin' down the tracks again and gathering speed.

And it looks like Fauci and Birx are finally bailing out of this administration's disaster, hoping that the future brings reason, common sense and some rational, factual national leadership in dealing with covid and its sequelae.

Not to detract from the national plan, "rounding the corner," but 132,540 new cases USA yesterday, tripled in the last month. Europe too - Italy >10x in last month. This ain't no train, it's a rocket ship.

The death surge is already starting. Yup, it's just a worldwide hoax.

And very few of those who can control this seem to understand that mitigation measures need to be implemented before things get worse. The procrastination that underlies government decisions is always too little, too late. Although Newsome here in California is hated by conservatives, he's doing a better job than most in pandemic control.

 

[cyrano]

This article:

https://scitechdaily.com/covid-19-patient-zero-data-analysis-identifies-the-mother-of-all-sars-cov-2-genomes/

seems relevant.

We have now reconstructed the progenitor genome and mapped where and when the earliest mutations happened

 

[JohnRoberts]

Pfizer in partnership with BioNTech just reported 90% effectiveness from their (two shot) vaccine preventing COVID, in an early trial.  [edit actually stage 3 /edit]

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

Happened in The Netherlands too. Farms were cleared.

It's obvious animals are affected too. We don't know which species exactly and there's no data about birds, fi. It's not an easy matter to research. Maybe we should ask field biologists to start testing any species they have access to?

Denmark is culling 15 million minks due to COVID risk.

JR

 

[Script]

Pfizer in partnership with BioNTech just reported 90% effectiveness from their (two shot) vaccine preventing COVID, in an early trial.  [edit actually stage 3 /edit]

Effectiveness of 90 would be great.

So with this we'd be looking at a very tough winter still to come but also the hope that things start to get better maybe already as early as second quarter of 21.

 

[Brian Roth]

Pfizer in partnership with BioNTech just reported 90% effectiveness from their (two shot) vaccine preventing COVID, in an early trial.  [edit actually stage 3 /edit]

JR

I haven't followed this thread here closely...but have to add this into the mix from Daily Beast.  I try to triangulate my sources.  Right wing sez they are "commie and fake news", left wing seems to like their articles better.  I also scan Drudge.....go figure!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pfizer-said-a-vaccine-was-almost-here-anti-vaxxers-lost-it/ar-BB1aQF0r

With all the flat-earthers loose in the world, I seriously doubt the pandemic will ever be contained, thanks to social media sites that say vax is poison, masks kill your brain with CO2, it's all a way to make us march to the death chamber because Bill Gates and his buddies want to depopulate the planet, vax contains mind control microchips, etc etc. Thousands/millions buy into that narrative.

I'll stop there....

Bri


Egads. 

 

[Brian Roth]

The flat earth goofballs say the vax is meant a way that Bill Gates and a secret society plan to kill billions to  depopulate the planet.

Many thousands (millions????)  believe it online.

 

[crazydoc]

Moved, since you don't like it here.

 

[JohnRoberts]

The covid politics thread was set up for unscientific discussion related to COVID.

Repeating outlandish stuff actually helps spread it, and degrades the S/N here.

JR

 

[hodad]

Reuters reports 59,000 in the US currently hospitalized with COVID--a new record!  6 straight days of 100,000+ newly reported cases!  Corner, consider yourself turned!

 

[scott2000]

Reuters reports 59,000 in the US currently hospitalized with COVID-- 

It's difficult to really know what this means. There's a lot of stuff going on with regards to coding that goes on it seems.

COVID-19 diagnosis coding explained in a flowchart
https://www.aafp.org/journals/fpm/blogs/inpractice/entry/covid_diagnosis_flowcharts.html

"This is important because many payers are waiving any cost-share responsibility for patients diagnosed with COVID-19. However, in order for the claim to be accepted as a COVID-19 related service, it must have a COVID-19 related diagnosis code."

Then of course the claims have things involved to get paid...and uninsured

FAQs for COVID-19 Claims Reimbursement to Health Care Providers and Facilities for Testing and Treatment of the Uninsured

https://www.hrsa.gov/coviduninsuredclaim/frequently-asked-questions

6 straight days of 100,000+ newly reported cases! 

Still confusing on the sensitivity that is being used to pick up this virus....doesn't seem to be clear what anyone is doing. Only that it seems to definitely matter...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html

And again from CDC
"Recovered persons can continue to shed detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA in upper respiratory specimens for up to 3 months after illness onset, albeit at concentrations considerably lower than during illness, in ranges where replication-competent virus has not been reliably recovered and infectiousness is unlikely"

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html

From FDA on one of the tests being used.....
E. A positive result indicates the detection of nucleic acid from the relevant virus. Nucleic acid may persist even after the virus is no longer viable

https://www.fda.gov/media/136156/download

And there's this video....@ 4minutes Fauci talks about it.....

TWiV 641: COVID-19 with Dr. Anthony Fauci

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_Vy6fgaBPE&feature=emb_logo

Just wish we knew what exactly was being done......to get a more clear picture.....

 

[ruffrecords]

"This is important because many payers are waiving any cost-share responsibility for patients diagnosed with COVID-19. However, in order for the claim to be accepted as a COVID-19 related service, it must have a COVID-19 related diagnosis code."

Thank heaven for the National Health Service. Who needs that kind of mental trauma when suffering from a potentially life threatening disease.

Cheers

Ian

 

[hodad]

It's difficult to really know what this means. There's a lot of stuff going on with regards to coding that goes on it seems.

Just wish we knew what exactly was being done......to get a more clear picture.....

Certainly.  But I don't think there's any radical shift in testing or methodology, so it's a substantial increase regardless of the absolute accuracy of the measure. 

 

[Script]

It's difficult to really know what this means...

For comparison only: it's still really not easy to get tested for Covid19 in Japan, but the weather has become colder and the reported number of infections is going up again ever so slightly. There has been mention of the 'beginning of the third wave' here, so it will be just a matter of time until the government issues another 'stay home' request.

As I mentioned earlier, almost all people here wear face masks. Most friends we have and people we know almost all largely refrain from going to restaurants, cinemas, group activities etc and mostly stopped meeting others frequently -- down to a minimum of maybe 20 percent as compared to before.

LBNL, I owe an answer regarding influenza cases in the 2019/2020 season in Japan. Just like pneumonia and the casual flu, influenzas showed record lows at the beginning of Covid19 in Japan. Rumours have it that was due to widespread mask-wearing and ever increasing voluntary self-restraint regarding social activities from early on (February 201920, March the latest).

 

[JohnRoberts]

Moderna announced 94.5% effectivity from their covid vaccine. This messenger RNA vaccine approach seems to really work.

There are more hounds chasing this one fox... bad news for the fox (covid).

[update- reportedly the Modern vaccine doesn't require deep cooling of pfizer vaccine. /update]

JR