COVID-19

[Script]

Sweden hasn't been mentioned for a long time. Well, here's the latest news: the King declares the Swedish response to Covid as failed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55347021

Sweden has the highest number of deaths among Scandinavian countries, with 90% of Covid-relazed deaths in Sweden being people aged 70+. Mainly in nursing homes. Grim. Government has taken responsibility.


* BTW, Japan has more than 21% in the 65+ cohort, with 85% of Covid-related deaths in Japan so far being among people aged 70+. Meanwhile overall infection numbers here are rising sharply...

 

[JohnRoberts]

Comparisons to Sweden routinely pop up, by different people promoting different strategies. Fairest comparison is to their nearby neighbors but even then there are large differences that confound comparisons.

Sweden's light handed approach is generally not considered a roaring success. Most deaths everywhere are in the older population and related to management (or mismanagement) of old age care facilities. Some of these differences may be cultural. Old people are not universally well cared for across all cultures. 

The authoritarian culture of China, tolerated strict lock downs and contact tracing and has pretty much emerged from the pandemic. We will probably never know how many died there. I am not sure western nations should try to emulate China, or could even if they wanted to.

In the US the different states are taking different approaches wrt mitigation strategies, while even there comparisons are difficult. Optimistically there is now a light at the end of the tunnel (vaccine), and for now it does not appear to be a train.   

JR

 

[crazydoc]

and for now it does not appear to be a train.   

JR

Happy thanksgiving. Can't wait for the xmas surge.

 

[crazydoc]

Comparisons to Sweden routinely pop up, by different people promoting different strategies. Fairest comparison is to their nearby neighbors but even then there are large differences that confound comparisons.

A comparison adjusted for population differences. There are probably a lot of confounding variables, but the raw numbers say something.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Not to be cloyingly optimistic it looks like Moderna's covid vaccine just got approved in a 30-0 vote. So two vaccines approved with more coming.

[edit- not official yet, but the committee vote is expected to get rubber stamped today, in addition the Moderna vaccine does not require the deep cold storage]

Of course we will all still die eventually, some sooner than others.

JR

 

[living sounds]

As far as Covid deaths are concerned Germany is doing quite a bit worse than Sweden right now, where - while cases have stayed high - the death toll has gone done markedly. Has Sweden changed the way they count Coronavirus related deaths or is it an actual decline?

 

[Script]

there are large differences that confound comparisons

Sure, every country / region might need to and probably should adjust their approach and measures slightly differently (for geography, weather, infrastructure, composition of population, medical resources, timing, etc etc etc). And there might even be differences in counting deaths. However, that doesn't change the fact that hospitals are filling up.

Anyway, looking at Covid-related deaths per 100,000 of population is pretty straightforward. And paired with excess deaths, this should yield a clear enough picture (i.e., in the ballpark of: 'too many'). -- I assume we are all aware that some people have an interest (some justified, others less so) in scrutinizing, relativizing, and arguing both numbers away.

--
Second vaccine being approved is a good sign. And there are a few more juices in the pipeline. Afraid though that some might take that as a pretext to let shields down. Dangerous cos still too early for that.

Xmas, everybody please take care. Better try to not make it a (second) Thanksgiving.

 

[scott2000]

Sure, every country / region might need to and probably should adjust their approach and measures

Anyway, looking at Covid-related deaths per 100,000 of population is pretty straightforward. And paired with excess deaths, this should yield a clear enough picture (i.e., in the ballpark of: 'too many'). --

--

All cause mortality has almost reached 2018 numbers here with some time left..... not sure yet what lag there is or what 2019 numbers were... ??

 

[JohnRoberts]

All cause mortality has almost reached 2018 numbers here with some time left..... not sure yet what lag there is or what 2019 numbers were... ??

Yes all cause mortality numbers lag, and are hard to crunch, I gave up trying. As I shared before (probably in the politics thread) the economics professors who published a paper at Johns Hopkins, that disputed whether all cause mortality was actually up, had that paper discredited and removed.

I try not to pay too much attention to the scary noise, its what news media does to gain eyeballs.

Continue to wash your hands, social distance, and wear masks when appropriate.

---

I perceive a nuanced change to mask advice, now it is mainly warranted for preventing transmission from covid infected individuals. Still worthwhile with so much symptomless infection and transmission.

JR

 

[crazydoc]

I perceive a nuanced change to mask advice, now it is mainly warranted for preventing transmission from covid infected individuals. Still worthwhile with so much symptomless infection and transmission.

This has been the reason and the recommendation for wearing masks for at least 6 months, no nuance to it. Where have you (and all those others) been?

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

Any further comment about this belongs in the politics thread of course.

 

[crazydoc]

Rather than focus on and argue about death counts and etiologies, it's now time to embrace the coming phase of the response to the pandemic - it's called triage. Very shortly the American medical system is going to be overwhelmed in many places due in large part to the irresponsible actions of a significant portion of the population.

Here we go. Saw a clip on the news this morning of a SoCal ER doc saying people are dying on gurneys waiting for admission, and he has to decide who has the best chance of survival before he chooses who to treat.

And this: “There’s been times when we’ve had multiple patients having cardiac arrest at the same time, and we’ve had to really triage to figure out which patient to resuscitate first,” said Reddy, the hospital’s intensivist medical director. “If there’s multiple emergencies, I try to gauge which patient I can make the most difference in.”

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-16/southern-california-hospitals-struggle-covid-19-surge

 

[crazydoc]

At least some public health departments are thinking ahead:

BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Idaho’s top public health leaders on Friday cleared the way for state officials to impose crisis standards of care if the number of COVID-19 patients increases so much that the state’s already strained hospitals wind up completely overwhelmed. Idaho Board of Health and Welfare members approved the temporary rule giving Department of Health and Welfare Director David Jeppesen the authority to enact the standards whenever needed.

The move, if enacted, would direct hospitals to use limited resources to provide potentially life-saving treatment to the patients most likely to survive, using a scoring system that takes into account the ages of the patients, how healthy their organ systems are and other factors.

 

[ruffrecords]

Latest news is a fast spreading varient of C19 is sweeping through the UK. Government has introduced very strict new measures across much of England including no family mixing at all at Christmas.

Cheers

Ian

 

[hodad]

Just want to tell folks to be careful out there.  2 of my son's friends (from distinct friend groups, so they didn't infect one another) came down with COVID this week.  They're young, so hopefully they can avoid any major complications.  But it's getting worse out there, & it's a good time to be extra cautious. 

That is all. 

 

[scott2000]

My neighbors to one side of me , pretty much every other house, had it at various times over the last several months....
Some were pretty sick.....
The kid next door had it, then tested 2 days later somewhere else and didn't.....

Neither parents got it ....

 

[Script]

Neither parents got it ...

Lucky them.
Kids are how old ? Teenagers or toddlers ?

 

[scott2000]

Lucky them.
Kids are how old ? Teenagers or toddlers ?

Teen...

Can only guess that maybe one testing place used a higher cycle threshold than the other to explain why the negative test a couple of days apart and parents not getting sick. ??

If these tests can detect fragments for 3 months, it is possible the first test was done on day 90 of an infection ..Doesn't explain the parents not getting infected or sick though. Or maybe they were infected and never knew....

My brother in law in Atlanta had it pretty bad after the riots and the entire home/family ended up with it over the course of a couple of weeks. But everyone, including the 90yo grandmother who lived with them were pretty much fine with body aches.... Some headaches...

 

[Script]

Glad to hear. It's always good to know that folks are doing fine.

Can tell teens that there needs to be some distancing even when living in the same household and chances are they understand. But trying to explain it to a toddler -- a complete waste of time...

 

[Script]

List of pulmonary and neurological sequelae, survey among 500 outpatients of a specialized clinic in Tokyo.

▼ Insomnia 97%
▼ Depression 86%
▼ Poor thinking ability 83%
▼ Headache 77%
▼ Body pain 77%
▼ Suffocation 73%
▼ Palpitations 71%
▼ Insomnia 71%
▼ Loss of appetite 63%
▼ Hair loss 52%
▼ Smell disorder 35%
▼ Taste disorder 27%

Symptoms reported by 378 people (multiple answers). 114 of them need extensive rest every second day.

https://www.nhk.or.jp/shutoken/newsup/20201228.html
(can use Google translate to read article.)

 

[living sounds]

Insomnia is in there twice...

List of pulmonary and neurological sequelae, survey among 500 outpatients of a specialized clinic in Tokyo.

▼ Insomnia 97%
▼ Depression 86%
▼ Poor thinking ability 83%
▼ Headache 77%
▼ Body pain 77%
▼ Suffocation 73%
▼ Palpitations 71%
▼ Insomnia 71%
▼ Loss of appetite 63%
▼ Hair loss 52%
▼ Smell disorder 35%
▼ Taste disorder 27%

Symptoms reported by 378 people (multiple answers). 114 of them need extensive rest every second day.

https://www.nhk.or.jp/shutoken/newsup/20201228.html
(can use Google translate to read article.)