COVID19 group A and group B sharing strategy.

[JohnRoberts]

Instead of lending out equipment, they could bring patients to where currently not needed equipment is. They do that between  France and Germany.

perhaps for modest distances.

We could outfit empty cruise ships with ventilaotrs and make them floating ICUs, but limited to servicing areas on either coast.

Perhaps specially outfitted buses with modular respirator bays to serve as movable emergency ICUs... not very comfortable and would require specialized air filtering and sanitation but not crazy, just unlikely.

Instead we appear on a path to end up with excess respirator capacity, or not enough leading to perhaps avoidable deaths.  Not much time for linear solutions.

----
Recoveries:
Could check for antibodies via simple blood sample. I read the Brits were working on a gadget for distribution to households via Amazon. But not definite yet, since no proof that it actually works. So maybe just part of 'please all stay calm'-news strategy? But at least, it sounds soothing.

Also, the Chinese say they tested monkeys and seem to have found that once recovered, those monkeys did not  contract the infection again. Unfortunately there's no link to the study in this article in Japanese:
https://mainichi.jp/articles/20200319/k00/00m/040/138000c

The claim is that there is no reinfection, which would be nice, but cases of test being negative, yet patient not fully recovered,, so resurgence. -- Study about Diamond Princess points to the same.

we need to learn more and quickly.

JR

 

[fazer]

This actually a way for the ships to provide income and retro fit with ventilators and treat as a war like effort to be ready in 4 weeks or less.  I like the idea.  Couple in New York .  California, Washington , and where ever they can deliver.  Better than doing nothing and multipurpose.  2k or more beds per shop.  And quarantine.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I was tempted to start a new thread but you guys have been thinking about "next" for weeks....

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There is an old joke about when the tide goes out you can see who isn't wearing trunks.. I expect this pandemic will be a like a tide going out uncovering things we didn't question because we were just accustomed to doing things the old way.

The combination of mandated social distancing and technology will force us to seriously consider a number of technology solutions that may have been with us for some time, but were not adopted due to inertia  (the old way).

I expect there is a long list and I will only offer a few..

#1- attending expensive colleges for degrees.... The entire business model for college education is padded with expensive housing, teachers, books, etc....  School from home over the WWW could be almost free... at least very cheap.

#2 In person doctor visits- I have long been uncomfortable about sitting around doctor's waiting rooms full of sick people. We can handle the interaction (except for blood draws and the like) over the WWW.

#3- Working in an office building- the forced tele-commuting will have a couple short term consequences... a) the slackers will still be slackers but more obvious over web work, b) the cost of expensive office buildings, furniture, etc... will become obvious

=====

I'm sure there are many more industries, not wearing swim trunks, but I will save some fun for y'all....

JR

 

[cyrano]

The problem is not with respirators, but with people knowing how to handle them.

It's slowly surfacing that more people are being killed by the respirator treatment than by the sickness itself. In some hospitals, the tired nurses who know the procedure are starting to hesitate to take people off the respirator.

Unfortunately, the only thing we can do to help medical staff is not panicking and wasting their time. They don't need enthusiastic amateurs atm.

 

[gyraf]

JR,

I hear you on this - I have been following from the sideline when my kids are remote-schooled over the net (4. and 6. grade), and it is quite obvious that a whole lot of what is needed could very well be handled by a (current tech level) AI, with only minor inputs from real-teachers needed..

Not that I in any way believe that teachers are unneeded or should be outphased - but their energy and time could/should be spent where it makes a real difference..

/Jakob E.

 

[JohnRoberts]

JR,

I hear you on this - I have been following from the sideline when my kids are remote-schooled over the net (4. and 6. grade), and it is quite obvious that a whole lot of what is needed could very well be handled by a (current tech level) AI, with only minor inputs from real-teachers needed..

Not that I in any way believe that teachers are unneeded or should be outphased - but their energy and time could/should be spent where it makes a real difference..

/Jakob E.

Yup... 

One issue that is popping up is that some poor families do not have wifi/internet connections to support home schooling for children.... I expect this will become a candidate for a new government entitlement program, but almost worth it for reducing friction between children and free education. Of course they won't use the web connections to play games, or worse.  :  This can free up the meat teachers to help slow students one on one, or teach thousands of normal students at the same time. 

JR

PS: We won't likely put Humpty back together exactly the same again. The new Humpty will be different, hopefully more efficient/effective/productive, but I am always the optimist.

 

[Bo Deadly]

I just want to say something else about this that is related. I think the US is setting ourselves up for a big fail. Social distancing is working. In fact, it's working quite well. The curve has flattened better than expected. However, I think this might be giving people a false sense of optimism. The virus has spread pretty thoroughly to every corner of the country. But social distancing has suppressed it's basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.3 to what appears to be an effective reproductive number (Re) of 1.5. This is like compressing a spring. If we release tension on the spring, the virus could go from being everywhere with low infection to everywhere with high(er) infection. And of course there would be the usual delay of 5-10 days before we realize that we made a mistake.

I think this is related because one of the main points of the Group A/B system is to preferentially get the healthy people "inoculated" so that they can't infect others (aka herd immunity). If we could do antibody testing on random groups of 1000 people in each major area, we could get some idea of what percentage of people have some immunity. If it's 30%, that could be enough to open up some businesses.

 

[scott2000]

Denmark to reopen schools and kindergartens next week

https://www.thelocal.dk/20200406/denmark-to-reopen-schools-and-kindergartens-next-week

 

[JohnRoberts]

I just want to say something else about this that is related. I think the US is setting ourselves up for a big fail. Social distancing is working. In fact, it's working quite well. The curve has flattened better than expected. However, I think this might be giving people a false sense of optimism. The virus has spread pretty thoroughly to every corner of the country. But social distancing has suppressed it's basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.3 to what appears to be an effective reproductive number (Re) of 1.5. This is like compressing a spring. If we release tension on the spring, the virus could go from being everywhere with low infection to everywhere with high(er) infection. And of course there would be the usual delay of 5-10 days before we realize that we made a mistake.

I think this is related because one of the main points of the Group A/B system is to preferentially get the healthy people "inoculated" so that they can't infect others (aka herd immunity). If we could do antibody testing on random groups of 1000 people in each major area, we could get some idea of what percentage of people have some immunity. If it's 30%, that could be enough to open up some businesses.

My take sounds a little like bad science fiction but I suspect workers (people) who test as infected but recovered and immune (antibody testing) will be safe to move about the bar, store, whatever....  They may even earn a premium wage for that ability to return to work sooner. Likely involve some kind of ID... (no not a privacy killing database like some suggest, but that seems practical). Funny how almost everything has good/bad unintended consequences. 

Sadly I could imagine dumbasses trying to get infected on purpose just so they could earn the "safe to work" wristbands (my latest sci-fi plot).

Now while testing is in short supply they are still trying to identify and trace community spread.

I expect before too long, testing will be more available and antibody testing will become a requirement for returning to work.

JR

PS: The whole function of vaccines is to inoculate*** people so they can't get infected

*** vaccines actually get people sick but with an attenuated version of the virus, so the body's natural immune response will kill the real deal. Of course this is not as easy as it sounds...