Deaths from climate change

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JohnRoberts

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Importantly, cold-related death decreased 0.51 per cent from 2000 to 2019, while heat-related death increased 0.21 per cent, leading to a reduction in net mortality due to cold and hot temperatures.

An inconvenient statistic but the party line argues that temps will keep climbing so expect more heat related deaths in the future.

Of course arguments like this ignore the increased use of air conditioning to mitigate heat, and central heat to mitigate cold weather. Of course poverty is a huge factor reducing availability of this life saving adaption by humans to manage extreme temperatures. So the reality is that poverty kills people, not climate change. The unintended (?) consequence of so much modern climate change policy is to increase energy costs making adaptation much more difficult for the poor.

I appreciate that this may be an unpopular perspective. My speculation is that aggressive climate change policy can actually lead to more deaths than unrestricted energy development that lowers energy costs for everybody making it easier to adapt to a changing environment.

Love the planet, but don't forget to love the people. It takes wealth to manage the real and imagined risks from climate change (rising oceans, et al). Climate policy that reduces economic growth and diminishes wealth creation is the greater hazard to human well being. Of course opinions vary.

JR
 
Stuff like that is impossible to calculate. It's a wild guess, at best...

Just a sliver of number science, to compare against: there are (probably) more people alive today than dead.

Even if it's impossible to prove, it gives a sense of scale, especially for the climate change problem.
 
Stuff like that is impossible to calculate. It's a wild guess, at best...
the climate change industry routinely projects outcomes multiple decades into the future.
Just a sliver of number science, to compare against: there are (probably) more people alive today than dead.

Even if it's impossible to prove, it gives a sense of scale, especially for the climate change problem.
a classic math conundrum... if there are more people alive than dead, you can't prove (mathematically) that we will all die.
===

My point is that researchers are rewarded for projecting bad outcomes, but few if any are inspecting the harmful effects of excessive remedies to save mother earth.

Poverty kills, High energy prices cause poverty... QED (quod erat demonstratum)

JR

PS: The administration has announced another program to release oil from the strategic reserve for next 6 months leading up to mid term elections. I do not understand the wisdom of releasing reserves built up for emergency use, I guess the mid term election is looking like an emergency. Why not release the domestic energy industry to do what they do?.
 
Was watching some guy's channel where he reviews electric cars. It was in Ireland but the charging station situation and issues were something to be considered. Pulling up to a station expecting to be there 45 minutes at least sounds not fun. Then the quirks with them not working. Most were not covered from rain like gas pumps either. Definitely seems that local driving is a better fit atm so you don't have to worry about going outside of the range of them which, from what he said, were generously specced with some being 45km shy .
Once the networks are in place, it will be nice.
 
Was watching some guy's channel where he reviews electric cars. It was in Ireland but the charging station situation and issues were something to be considered. Pulling up to a station expecting to be there 45 minutes at least sounds not fun. Then the quirks with them not working. Most were not covered from rain like gas pumps either. Definitely seems that local driving is a better fit atm so you don't have to worry about going outside of the range of them which, from what he said, were generously specced with some being 45km shy .
Once the networks are in place, it will be nice.
Perhaps amusing anecdote about EVs. a while back I checked prices for an old tired EV. My once a week shopping trip involves 8 miles each way.. Ideal for even an old EV with tired battery... but and here's the punchline, I could not find one for sale within driving range distance from my house. I guess I could have hired a car transporter but decided to take the hint.

Realistically I would find most economic EVs puny compared to my Mustang Cobra... Of course a modern Tesla or mach E would deliver suitable acceleration but above my comfortable price range.

JR
 
Of course arguments like this ignore the increased use of air conditioning to mitigate heat, and central heat to mitigate cold weather.
Ironically, since both air conditioning and central heating conventionally burn fossile fuels and thus contribute to long-term heating of the planet's athmosphere, as a whole it may be viewed as a positive feedback system...
 
Ironically, since both air conditioning and central heating conventionally burn fossile fuels and thus contribute to long-term heating of the planet's athmosphere, as a whole it may be viewed as a positive feedback system...
If air conditioning burns fossil fuels, then so does your EV.

Of course if we'd invested in improving nuclear fission based energy (e.g., Thorium cycle) instead of just solar/wind which introduce unpredictable dynamics into grid management, especially at large scale, we'd be much better off. Battery technology is not currently scalable to the size needed to have even 20%+ solar/wind generation and a stable distribution system.
 
Ironically, since both air conditioning and central heating conventionally burn fossile fuels and thus contribute to long-term heating of the planet's athmosphere, as a whole it may be viewed as a positive feedback system...
My brother's house in CA is cooled/heated with solar power, but he is in the minority. My home is heated cooled with electricity generated using NG (the clean coal plant built at huge expense was converted to NG because the coal was not cost effective. We still have to pay for that white elephant)

The world still gets the majority of electricity generated using fossil fuels. The fraction of wind/solar/and renewable continue to increase but this is not the existential emergency that leaders claim...

This is a classic fast thinking/slow thinking switcheroo... Fast thinkers conflate rising global temperature (an objective fact), with the hyperbolic existential threat screed (subjective). Thoughtful analysis estimates that global warming could cost our GDP low single digit percent slower growth by 2100. We will still be 4-5x wealthier than we are now.

Extreme responses to climate change will IMO do far more harm than the climate. This morning President Biden is blaming the high energy prices on Putin, and Covid.... come on man...

JR
 
I had to think very fast when my studio was flooded last summer. Science tells us that the extreme weather phenomena that caused it were made several times more likely by anthropogenic climate change.

Yes, we should have done more in terms of innovating and expanding modern nuclear power generation. But not instead of renewables, but rather by cutting subsidies for the fossile fuel industry, the most profitable industry in human history. Decades of regulatory capture have helped us get into this mess.

It's easy to blame politics, but the truth is that western societies have been feeling so comfortable for so long that we lack the will for bold action and sacrifice. The biggest gains in terms of revenue in the last decade were made in entertainment, people are content playing with their smartphones and watching Netflix, and ignore reality.
 
I had to think very fast when my studio was flooded last summer. Science tells us that the extreme weather phenomena that caused it were made several times more likely by anthropogenic climate change.
There are a few good books containing thoughtful scientific analysis of such claims ("Unsettled" by Koonin, "False Alarm" by Lomborg). If science is advising you that floods on your property will be more frequent the only practical action would be to protect against future local flooding. The CO2 climate mechanism is extremely slow changing (that is actual science).
Yes, we should have done more in terms of innovating and expanding modern nuclear power generation. But not instead of renewables, but rather by cutting subsidies for the fossile fuel industry, the most profitable industry in human history. Decades of regulatory capture have helped us get into this mess.
Energy companies have long been easy targets for class warfare because of the huge top line (gross sales) numbers.

Germany got 13% of 2021 electricity from 6 nuclear plants. Three of those plants were shut down at the end of 2021, the remaining three are scheduled to shut down this year. Nuke plants were shut down in response to the Japanese nuclear plant accident (Fukashima). I don't think Germany is at much risk of being stuck by Tsunamis but who knows? Germany's use of coal fired power increased 40% in 2021. I can't predict the future but it appears that Germany will attempt to reduce Russian NG consumption. That will not be easy to do without fossil fuels.
It's easy to blame politics, but the truth is that western societies have been feeling so comfortable for so long that we lack the will for bold action and sacrifice. The biggest gains in terms of revenue in the last decade were made in entertainment, people are content playing with their smartphones and watching Netflix, and ignore reality.
If anything politicians have become more proficient at manipulating the low information sheeple (Greta?). IMO this is a blatant power grab to gain control over private industry and promote wealth redistribution. If we really wanted to help the poorest among us we would promote expanding low cost energy. "All of the above" including nuclear, modern nuclear is safer and cleaner. Unleash our massive energy resources to create all the wealth needed to help at risk population adapt to a changing environment.

Of course opinions vary.

JR
 
There are a few good books containing thoughtful scientific analysis of such claims ("Unsettled" by Koonin, "False Alarm" by Lomborg). If science is advising you that floods on your property will be more frequent the only practical action would be to protect against future local flooding. The CO2 climate mechanism is extremely slow changing (that is actual science).

Energy companies have long been easy targets for class warfare because of the huge top line (gross sales) numbers.

Germany got 13% of 2021 electricity from 6 nuclear plants. Three of those plants were shut down at the end of 2021, the remaining three are scheduled to shut down this year. Nuke plants were shut down in response to the Japanese nuclear plant accident (Fukashima). I don't think Germany is at much risk of being stuck by Tsunamis but who knows? Germany's use of coal fired power increased 40% in 2021. I can't predict the future but it appears that Germany will attempt to reduce Russian NG consumption. That will not be easy to do without fossil fuels.

If anything politicians have become more proficient at manipulating the low information sheeple (Greta?). IMO this is a blatant power grab to gain control over private industry and promote wealth redistribution. If we really wanted to help the poorest among us we would promote expanding low cost energy. "All of the above" including nuclear, modern nuclear is safer and cleaner. Unleash our massive energy resources to create all the wealth needed to help at risk population adapt to a changing environment.

Of course opinions vary.

JR
If you choose to read books that go against the vast body of scientific evidence, go for it. It won't change the facts, though.

"Class warfare" is just another ideological tool to deflect valid criticism. It is not an argument per se.

Yes, Germany also has lacked "the will for bold action and sacrifice", as I said.

Blaming politicians is a very human way to make sense of complex mechanisms, and conspiratorial thinking ("power grab") may fit certain mindsets.

But it's neither realistic nor helpful to think in terms of good and bad (either government or private industry), choose sides and align your thinking with one of those interpretations.

I think we can agree that expanding modern nuclear at this time is a good idea (as long as we can make it safe to withstand armed conflict). Greta does agree, too. It's rational. It's also rational to get rid of fossile fuels as quickly as we can, not only because of climate change (again, it's a fact) but also because of the detrimental effects these industries have on democracy, self government, peace. It's not coincidence that extraction industries so often support dictatorships, wars and hinder development and innovation where they have a prominent influence. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Katar, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela etc. are suitable examples of that.
 
If you choose to read books that go against the vast body of scientific evidence, go for it. It won't change the facts, though.
these books do not dispute objective evidence. The Koonin book is full of government and UN data charts.
"Class warfare" is just another ideological tool to deflect valid criticism. It is not an argument per se.
Class warfare is effective because there are generally fewer really wealthy people to defend themselves.
Yes, Germany also has lacked "the will for bold action and sacrifice", as I said.
Perhaps bold action and sacrifice is not the best path... Shutting down all of your nuclear plants seems pretty bold, and definitely a sacrifice.
Blaming politicians is a very human way to make sense of complex mechanisms, and conspiratorial thinking ("power grab") may fit certain mindsets.
if it quacks like a duck... etc
But it's neither realistic nor helpful to think in terms of good and bad (either government or private industry), choose sides and align your thinking with one of those interpretations.
I prefer to think for myself, but try to learn from people smarter than me. I am impressed by both Koonin and Lomborg. They are bravely swimming against the tide of public sentiment.
I think we can agree that expanding modern nuclear at this time is a good idea (as long as we can make it safe to withstand armed conflict).
we agree...... Modern nuclear technology supports making small nuclear power generation systems that can be placed locally. This technology has been used for decades in military vessel propulsion so is mature. Politically using a bunch of small local plants would be problematic because of NIMBY sentiment from low information voters.
Greta does agree, too. It's rational. It's also rational to get rid of fossile fuels as quickly as we can, not only because of climate change (again, it's a fact)
I am repeating myself, the climate effects from CO2 are extremely slow moving and unlikely to see much measurable effect from all the climate change policy. The ginned up "urgency" is just another manipulation effect to motivate people emotionally instead of logically. The low single digit temperature rise target is purely arbitrary to scare people about the expected outcome (more fast/slow thinking marketing tricks).
but also because of the detrimental effects these industries have on democracy,
a purely political argument.
self government, peace.
if anything high energy prices are coincident with Putin's adventurism. Low energy prices would starve his war effort.
It's not coincidence that extraction industries so often support dictatorships, wars and hinder development and innovation where they have a prominent influence.
hmmmm ... The Biden administration has thwarted domestic fossil fuel development, and blocked a pipeline from our democratic northern neighbor. Instead the Biden administration has begged ME oil countries to increase production (they stopped accepting his calls). He only stopped buying Russian oil when congress began acting to prohibit purchases ahead of him. In recent months Biden officials travelled to Venezuela to explore buying oil from that sanctioned dictator, and is pushing the Iran deal, to increase availability of sanctioned Iranian oil on the market.

I agree with your negative characterization of many oil states, but the oil doesn't cause the bad behavior just supports the bad actors.
Russia, Saudi Arabia, Katar, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela etc. are suitable examples of that.
Katar is a knife... Qatar is negotiating increasing NG supplies to the EU, this should help your future energy shortages in Germany.

The best way to stop funding bad actors is to flood the market with low cost oil/NG, ( not releases from our SPR) but from the ground. We have massive energy reserves.

JR
 
Katar is a knife...



JR
Your provincialism is showing (Katar is German for Qatar).

I told myself I wasn't going to get involved in this debate, but I am weak. Deaths from heat and cold have miniscule relation to climate change. It's deaths and other effects from energy trapping ( drought, famine, insect outbreaks, increased wildfires, declining water supplies, reduced agricultural yields, more severe storms, floods, rising sea level with erosion in coastal areas, destruction of infrastructure - all contributing to sociopolitical unrest ) that are going to wreak havoc.
 
I did a web search but not in german... Thanks for schooling me.

The climate arm wavers came up with the heat death/cold death numbers but did not do the obvious math.

Cheap energy and increased wealth will help manage the real symptoms you listed, several are not real... for an inconvenient fact, increased CO2 stimulates agricultural yields, not diminishes them...

For sociopolitical unrest, the Arab spring was triggered by bread/grain shortages in northern africa... the war in Ukraine will likely lead to more similar food shortages. Climate change not so much.

The climate misinformation is so ingrained that I am surprised when I see accurate reporting in a newspaper.

JR
 
CO 2 fertilization effects
Plants produce more vegetative matter as atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 increase. The effect depends on the
nature of the photosynthetic process used by the plant species. So-called C3 plants use CO2 less efficiently than C4
plants so C3 plants are more sensitive to higher concentrations of CO 2. It remains an open question whether these
laboratory results translate to actual field conditions. A recent report on field experiments on CO 2 fertilization (Long
et al. 2006) finds that the effects in the field are approximately 50 percent less than in experiments in enclosed
containers. And another report (Zavala et al. 2008) finds that higher levels of atmospheric CO 2 increase the
susceptibility of soybean plants grown in the U.S. Midwest to the Japanese beetle and maize to the western corn
rootworm. So the actual benefits in farmers’ fields of CO 2 fertilization remain uncertain.


https://ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/130648/filename/130821.pdf
 
Time to buy land in Greenland. That's a huge chunk of land that may be inhabitable when lands to the south are not. Canada has a lot of land not currently inhabitable because of cold.
 
CO 2 fertilization effects
Plants produce more vegetative matter as atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 increase. The effect depends on the
nature of the photosynthetic process used by the plant species. So-called C3 plants use CO2 less efficiently than C4
plants so C3 plants are more sensitive to higher concentrations of CO 2. It remains an open question whether these
laboratory results translate to actual field conditions. A recent report on field experiments on CO 2 fertilization (Long
et al. 2006) finds that the effects in the field are approximately 50 percent less than in experiments in enclosed
containers. And another report (Zavala et al. 2008) finds that higher levels of atmospheric CO 2 increase the
susceptibility of soybean plants grown in the U.S. Midwest to the Japanese beetle and maize to the western corn
rootworm. So the actual benefits in farmers’ fields of CO 2 fertilization remain uncertain.


https://ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/130648/filename/130821.pdf
the effect of CO2 fertilization is expected to be modest compared to yield improvement from evolving crop practices. (The fertilizer reduction due to Ukraine war will make a significant near term crop impact.)

"During the last four decades the "leaf area index" (fractional area covered by leaves) observed by satellite has increased markedly (greened) over 25-50% percent of the vegetated areas of the globe, while it has decreased (browned) over less than 4% of the globe. " (from Koonin book).
Time to buy land in Greenland. That's a huge chunk of land that may be inhabitable when lands to the south are not. Canada has a lot of land not currently inhabitable because of cold.
Arable regions will shift to higher/lower latitudes. I don't expect it to affect my yard, in my lifetime.

JR
 
Answers to future energy needs could mean smaller rather than larger central energy creation. Tokamak small fusion reactor reaches 100 million degrees Celsius which makes it capable of reaching sustainable fusion ignition. Expected to be online by 2030.



Maybe smaller is better. The company has achieved this with a 70 million dollar investment according to article on Apple news app (popular science)
There is a larger reactor in France that because of size requires 150 million degrees to ignite which then requires liquid helium to cool rather that liquid nitrogen which increases cost significantly. Decentralized development could trump large scale central development.
 
Development of fusion power is a little like breakthrough battery technology "always right around the next corner". ;) Of course either or both would be welcome.

We have practical improved fission reactor technology here and now that gets tangled up in government regulation and NIMBY cultural hindrances.

Uranium is a hot modern commodity investment that will gain more favor if the Green warriors ever fully appreciate the benefit of zero carbon nuclear power generation. For those who weren't paying attention in 2010 Hillary Clinton approved selling 20% of US Uranium holdings to Russia (the 20% was later recalculated down to 10%). Analysts predict Uranium demand could double in next 10 years.

The danger of radioactive waste's long half life was revisited by Russian military digging trenches in Chernobyl exclusion zone (Chernobyl will be uninhabitable for 3,000 years). I don't know if this radiation sickness in Russian soldiers was real or fake news, but an interesting reminder.

JR
 
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