Food prices

[Brian Roth]

This is getting crazy.

My roomie Chad runs the kitchen here; he likes to cook and I don't. lol

I was picking up a few items at Dillon's grocery (Kroger) today and I wandered by the meat department. OMG! Ground beef (85/15 was all they had in stock) was $3.99/pound "on sale".

Ground beef is a staple here.....burgers charcoaled on the Weber grill, spaghetti, sometimes Hamburger Helper, etc. Things like pork chops are well over $5.00/pound and don't ask about steak pricing.

Milk (I drink a glass per day at dinner, and Chad uses it for various recipes) had jumped to $2.50/gal. It was a dollar less a few months ago.

I just checked Walmart online, and their 73/27 burger is $3.09 if I buy it in a 10 pound roll. Checked Aldi and their ground turkey was like $3.75/pound.

That's all we have here besides a smaller independent Fresh Market store, which seldom has good prices.

Looks like ground beef will be a luxury here. Tuna Helper may be the mainstay now.

Bri

 

[gyraf]

Food price changes are always worrying, as it often point to some deeper shifts in economy

That said, around here we haven't seen ground beef below 4usd/pound since the 1980'es..

/Jakob E.

 

[ruffrecords]

UK milk is £2.68 ($3.67) per gallon. Average minced beef price is £5.33 per kilo which works out at £2.42/lb ($3.32)

Milk still looks cheap to me. Apparently it is 3% higher than Jan last year. I am not sure why UK beef should be so much cheaper than US beef. I guess our farmers don't need to worry about you guys flooding the UK market with cheap beef . Your pork prices are crazy. Pork is dirt cheap over here (unless it is bacon).

Cheers

Ian

 

[Gustav]

"Higher beef prices"

https://www.thecattlesite.com/news/57023/whats-behind-high-global-beef-prices/
Gustav

 

[living sounds]

After more than 10 years of expansionary monetary policy and even more money printing after the pandemic consumer prices finally catch up to the long-inflated asset prices. In addition, there are overall shortages due to the pandemic, climate change, anti-globalisation measures etc.

To escape the devaluation of fiat money my suggestion would be to buy crypto.

From a health perspective I would advice against treating ground beef as a staple food...

 

[JohnRoberts]

The monetary policy has been expansionary for more than ten years.

For years the central bankers have struggled to attain their 2% inflation target (considered healthy for economic growth), because of deflationary forces (like cheap SKUs from China, labor saving automation, etc). Now the economy is seeing several contributory factors; wage growth due to tight labor market, increased raw material costs for sundry reasons, increased food costs because of covid interruptions in supply chain.

Central bankers are quietly sopping up excess liquidity using obscure transactions (like bank overnight lending window). Meanwhile the fed chief is telegraphing continued support for the economy. The feds (impractical) dual mandate of controlling inflation and high employment seems to be coming up win-win... So markets are nervously waiting for the tightening shoe to drop. Remembering the "taper tantrum" from just talking about tapering liquidity injections, the fed is walking a tightrope to not spook the markets.

I just checked my modest positions in gold and silver, both are near flat and trending down. Palantir a data analytics firm known for working with the CIA just reported on their financial statements that they bought $50M worth of gold bars. Their COO explaining that they are preparing for a black swan event. By definition you can't predict black swan events. Coincidentally many corporations are sitting on cash heavy balance sheets. Some are loading up on crypto currencies. Recently we've seen corporations report impairment charges when BTC on their balance sheets, dropped in value from quarter to quarter (the recent trend for BTC is up).

The central bankers are arguing that the recent inflation bump is transitory. It seems that some of the factors driving inflation like transportation costs, tight employment and wage growth are likely to be with us for some duration.

I just did my weekly food shopping, pretty much everything was slightly higher priced than recent months.

JR

 

[living sounds]

I don't think a consumer price index is an adequate measure of inflation. It can and is tampered with.

Many "basket" goods don't compare well over time. For instance, a baker's bread in the 1950's tended to be a labour intensive high quality good. You'd have to buy handmade organic food from a good artisanry to get something actually comparable in test and quality. The other stuff is mass-produced frozen-dough many-corners-cut food.

Or meat production... there's a great story in the book "The Dorito Effect" how the modern chicken for human consumption came about.

Or take a TV set from the 60s. Not as good as today's in terms of resolution, colours etc., but usually build to last 20+ years, mostly by hand, completely repairable etc. A modern TV is obsolete in 5 years and will probably break down around that time because the switching PSU goes south. And forget about repairs...


Also, whole asset classes that show inflation first, like real estate don't show up in consumer prince indexes. But they do matter.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I don't think a consumer price index is an adequate measure of inflation. It can and is tampered with.

This has been debated for years and what's worse they don't include energy and food prices in the widely cited index. Of course it is gamed.

Many "basket" goods don't compare well over time. For instance, a baker's bread in the 1950's tended to be a labour intensive high quality good. You'd have to buy handmade organic food from a good artisanry to get something actually comparable in test and quality. The other stuff is mass-produced frozen-dough many-corners-cut food.

Or meat production... there's a great story in the book "The Dorito Effect" how the modern chicken for human consumption came about.

Or take a TV set from the 60s. Not as good as today's in terms of resolution, colours etc., but usually build to last 20+ years, mostly by hand, completely repairable etc. A modern TV is obsolete in 5 years and will probably break down around that time because the switching PSU goes south. And forget about repairs...

my observation about TV sets I have personally replaced my main TV monitor twice over the last several years because the price of newer, bigger, screens dropped too low to resist. It has finally gotten to the point where I won't buy a newer, yet bigger screen because I would have to lift/install it myself. Right now I am using one of my old TV sets as my computer monitor, and a second former TV set monitoring my outdoor security cameras (looking for squirrels snacking in my pecan trees so I can ugly them down).

Also, whole asset classes that show inflation first, like real estate don't show up in consumer prince indexes. But they do matter.

They have been pumping up hard assets like real estate (home prices) since the credit collapse in 2007/2008. This also inflates stocks prices. They call this a good "wealth effect", where consumers feel better about the future when they see assets increasing in price, so keep consuming.

At some point the central bankers will stop the music and we will all be scrambling for chairs to sit in. Jerome Powell the fed chief wants to get appointed for another term, so he won't upset the apple cart this year, next year is another story. The market is a future discounting mechanism so investors are already getting twitchy in anticipation of a major liquidity withdrawal next year. I suspect they are quietly drawing down liquidity already while keeping the market lulled into complacency with supportive messaging.

JR

 

[living sounds]

They have been pumping up hard assets like real estate (home prices) since the credit collapse in 2007/2008. This also inflates stocks prices. They call this a good "wealth effect", where consumers feel better about the future when they see assets increasing in price, so keep consuming.

At some point the central bankers will stop the music and we will all be scrambling for chairs to sit in. Jerome Powell the fed chief wants to get appointed for another term, so he won't upset the apple cart this year, next year is another story. The market is a future discounting mechanism so investors are already getting twitchy in anticipation of a major liquidity withdrawal next year. I suspect they are quietly drawing down liquidity already while keeping the market lulled into complacency with supportive messaging.

JR

The US housing market is already cooling down significantly.

 

[john12ax7]

The US housing market is already cooling down significantly.

I'm not seeing that yet. At best the rate of acceleration might be slowing.

 

[living sounds]

Housing starts and mortgage applications have fallen sharply already:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/housing-black-swan
Got to wait and see if the market crashes or just corrects a little.

 

[john12ax7]

Hopefully you are correct and there is a housing correction. But I've been looking for a year now and haven't seen it in the local markets, despite what various articles might say. Don't really see anything changing unless there is a reversal of monetary expansion and interest rates go up.

Prices are up on everything in my area, food, real restate, residential rents, even commercial rents are up a lot too. Routine services like a car oil change are up dramatically.

 

[JohnRoberts]

They are already quietly withdrawing liquidity but not talking about to avoid spooking the market.

Jackson Hole where central bankers chew the fat and fish, is going virtual this year, so it is expected to be quieter than usual. I bet fishing virtually sux.

I am probably repeating myself but black swan events can't be predicted, it seems people announce them all the time trying to move markets.

JR

PS; For those paying attention some are warning about "stagflation" inflation without GDP growth... This makes the interest rate levers less effective. I am optimistic about the economy getting a boost from all the technology adopted during covid lock downs.

 

[Brian Roth]

Coming back to this topic again.....

I read many news sources, but especially local/regional. Something is really odd at the moment. Grocery prices go up at a rapid clip, yet the prices paid to farmers/ranchers are stagnant/decreasing. The farmers/ranchers are being told "take the price we offer....don't like it? So sad for you."

The large buyers who control most of the marketplace are making excellent profits. FWIW, a recent article I read shows four companies control 85% of the beef processing/marketing in the USA. They seem to be moving in lockstep with each other. Robber barons like in the late 1800's/early 1900's?

Bri

 

[JohnRoberts]

Coming back to this topic again.....

I read many news sources, but especially local/regional. Something is really odd at the moment. Grocery prices go up at a rapid clip, yet the prices paid to farmers/ranchers are stagnant/decreasing. The farmers/ranchers are being told "take the price we offer....don't like it? So sad for you."

The large buyers who control most of the marketplace are making excellent profits. FWIW, a recent article I read shows four companies control 85% of the beef processing/marketing in the USA. They seem to be moving in lockstep with each other. Robber barons like in the late 1800's/early 1900's?

Bri

Robber barons? The meat processors were hit pretty hard by covid since their production lines were not compatible with social distancing. I'm surprised we are not seeing more automated meat cutting, or at least remote control like those surgery robots. Apparently the machines can't keep up with humans.

Consolidation in the meatpacking industry has been going on for years. The largest meatpacker in the world is Brazil based JBS with 54 plants on four continents. I followed JBS for years because they were exporting grass fed beef (in metal cans) that is cheaper to raise, healthier but less attractive to western palates. IIRC they were criticized for clearing Amazon rain forest to make cattle pastures. JBS is promoting premium grass fed beef in Oz, and looking at breeding stock to get cattle making more marbling from grass feed. That seems counterintuitive to make grass fed (healthy?) beef with more fat marbling, but its a business.

The folks selling the finished goods (like Walmart) have raised worker wages multiple times over recent years to hold on to employees in an increasingly competitive job market.

If you think we are getting inflation now, wait and see what happens if they pass another $3.5T spending bill. It is hard to fathom numbers that big, so most don't pay attention.

JR

 

[Bjorn218]

I want the prices from 2021 back!

Food prices in 2023 have skyrocketed compared to what we saw just two years ago. I remember when milk was $2.50/gal; now, I'm picking it up from Costco for around $4.50/gal. I've been doing most of my shopping at Costco lately because, in my experience, their prices seem to beat Walmart and Kroger.

There's this site Costco food database that I check weekly to find the best deals.

 

[living sounds]

I want the prices from 2021 back!

Food prices in 2023 have skyrocketed compared to what we saw just two years ago. I remember when milk was $2.50/gal; now, I'm picking it up from Costco for around $4.50/gal. I've been doing most of my shopping at Costco lately because, in my experience, their prices seem to beat Walmart and Kroger.

When I was in the US in May food was really expensive. Here in Germany prices have come down a bit for certain staples (like milk), but others (like pasta) are at least double to what they were before the pandemic...

 

[JohnRoberts]

Maybe congress can pass another 'Inflation reduction act" [kidding, all that government spending actually increased inflation].

The inflation rate is cooling (up 3%) but down from a crazy high rate (up 9%). The central bankers have been trying to stop inflation by raising interest rates but there is significant lag before these raises take effect. Home prices and rents are reportedly cooling which could predict lower future inflation. With this lag the fed needs to be careful about overshooting.

JR

 

[sodderboy]

Coincidently I saw American Graffiti the other night and you got a nice 14" B/W tube TV for $169.99 circa the 1960 plot. That PV's out to $1,800 today. I did not catch the cost of a double chili burger, fries, and a cherry coke.
On top of the multiple self-inflicted inflationary pressures, there IS a war on beef, and it is reflected in a 100% increase in prices of what I buy. I have befriended hunters and supplement with some venison and elk. Damn good eatin'.
Most prepared food is up 50-75%, so it is a great time to learn to cook. Baked chicken pieces, $2.99 per lb vs $12.99 store baked. I learn new recipes just because I buy what's on sale. Shanks $4/lb made awesome ossobuco. That is a seed recipe for anything braised, so simple, and better than any restaurant.

Brian, you can't afford not learning to cook a bit. "rotisserie seasoning" is magic, and you make it with one part each salt, sugar, garlic, onion, paprika, cumin, coriander, and cayenne, black pepper, etc. if you like it hot. Wash chicken pieces, dry, toss in a bowl with olive oil to coat, sprinkle rotisserie, bake 350 deg 30 min per side, sprinkle extra if bare. Crisp at the broiler for 5 min if you like. I am doing 60 full wings for a fishing trip on Fri. It is really easy! If you like "jar pasta sauce" you can make your own with dry seasoning in 30 min without all the chemical crap in it. US shelf goods are total garbage these days anyway, made to keep from spoiling for 5 years. Web is full of simple recipes, DIY what you like and tweak it.
My pizza is not even the "Orban" of the food world, so I leave that to the professionals.
Mike

 

[living sounds]

The main driver for inflation here was the Ukraine war and the massively increased energy prices (that in turn made production and transportation more expensive), on top of the pandemic-induced shortages and anti-globalist policies. And yes, the increased money supply didn't help either.