One famous economist (Milton Friedman?) once said it is impossible to identify and manage the massive waste and fraud in government spending, so the only prudent alternative is to only give the federal government the minimum revenue it needs to cover essential services (border security, international diplomacy, etc). For years after we were founded our federal government was able to live comfortably of the fees generated by permits and trade duties.
The more of our economy that gets managed by the federal government, the less we get for our money, and less economic growth we can expect.
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I'm shocked
that this tax bill was passed just barely hours into 2013. This way the republicans can claim it was a tax reduction (cough). I think I mentioned this strategy several weeks ago. All this recent drama was just political theater for face saving, but I suspect the sheeple bought it hook, line, and sinker.
We only need to look at Europe to see how we can end up, when the bond vigilantes stop lending us money to spend on all these entitlements. Bernanke has distorted the free market pricing of US sovereign debt by buying up so much of it with freshly printed dollars so boycotting it by private buyers has less impact. If that isn't a sham transaction (clearly not arms length or unrelated parties) I don't know what one looks like. If a private business tried to do something like that, they would end up in jail.
Arguably this ongoing monetary expansion is keeping deflation at bay but I still don't see an easy exit plan... With $16T+ of debt and little promise of reduced spending, just wait until interest rates rise. It will take several $T just to service that still expanding public debt. I understand Bernanke keeping his pedal to the metal, as long as congress and the administration don't act like adults about taxation and spending.
We are just seeing the beginning of this (borrowing and spending) fight, and I can't be very optimistic. While the headlines now will report a tax cut on paper, in reality it is a tax increase on one of the more productive sectors of our economy, and many stealth taxes related to Obama-care, kick in this year and next. These tax increases will not put a significant dent in debt and deficits, but can damp GDP growth. Every time a politician talks about reducing deficits or balancing a budget ten years in the future, they are lying.... They always say that about everything, knowing that they may not be around to account for their promises. We may not need severe austerity right now, but we need to reverse this trend. The Titanic sank despite promises it couldn't.
Happy new year everybody...
JR
PS: I dislike this argument that American voters chose their short term self-interest over the long term good of the nation, but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it just might be a duck, certainly fowl. I heard about the state of PA issuing a study where a working single mother got more money by keeping her wage rate low. I forget the exact numbers, but to actually net more revenue without the entitlements she had to increase her earned income from $20,000s to $50,000s. Yet another unintended consequence of negative incentives from government help. I think many of these politicians are well intentioned but they do not understand economics and human behavior. We are helping everybody deeper into dependance on the government. The cynic in me could easily interpret this as buying votes. Again I don't see that ending well in the long term. The flaw in that plan is that you eventually run out of rich people. They are fleeing France right now over confiscatory tax rates, and their supreme court just ruled the 75% tax rate was not "fair". 8) 8)
[edit] for perspective, the taxes raised by the recent increase on the top couple percent is about equal to the pending federal government relief bill to help NY/NJ after the recent hurricane. So all that "new" revenue is already spent. [/edit]