Killing Social Security?

[Tubetec]

Thats a good point too Matador,
The cost of housing relative to pay is a good measure to compare  , likewise here in Ireland average house price has skyrocketed compared to income levels , back in the day typically the man went out to work ,women stayed at home and raised the kids . Now many houses need the second income just to break even , with child care costs taking another large chunk of change. Theres plenty of studies now showing downsides to sending kids to day care ,as opposed to being cared for by family .

Ive heard some say ,were the first generation to end up poorer than our parents in a long long time , along with that I'd imagine the gap between rich and poor is ever widening .

Many of my musician friends without second jobs are left dangling by a thread financially at this stage , of course way back when, we weren't to know  something called Youtube and the internet would kill income from record sales received by artists, covid virus has well and truly killed any possible income from gigs leaving many up sh!t creek without a paddle . The only side of the industry getting proper representation in the corridors of power is big P.A rental and events management companies.
Even the workingmans pint here is a thing of the past here now , a minimum of 9 euros must be spent on food before the pub will serve you a pint of beer,all non food pubs in Ireland are firmly shut still .   

Our health system here is so badly broke you'd probably have better odds of coming out alive playing Russian roulette .

 

[crazydoc]

The insurance concept doesn't meet the model, in that you are paid out based on what you pay in.

Car and property insurance work like that. You pay in less or more based on what your car or property is worth, or what coverage you want, so if a payout is needed,  it is based on what you paid in. Similarly, SS pays out more to those who paid in more (higher lifetime income.)

SS was never meant to allow retirees (or the disabled) to live high on the hog, vacation in foreign lands and whatever else the well-to-do use their money for. It was meant to allow those at the end of their lives to afford room and board, and not be a burden on their families.

 

[Tubetec]

Basic social security payments in Ireland amount to around 200 euros per week or 10K a year,
contrast that with what it costs to lock someone in prison for a year , probably something like 1500 a week or more.
On so many levels the simple in/out SS equation fails to add up , a career criminal costs the state vast amounts of cash to imprison yet they most likely will never have paid a penny in tax ever , if and when they do get out of jail there still entitled to the SS payments , Yeah, the rich guy who fleeced people for millions in business ,when he hits 65 passes Go and collects his state pension regardless of how much he has in the bank, high and low end get a good deal , man in the middle takes the hit 

 

[rob_gould]

you are paid out based on what you pay in.

Or not, in Brian's case  ;D

 

[scott2000]

https://www.prb.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/PRB-PopBulletin-2020-Census.pdf

"Between 2020 and 2060, the number
of older adults is projected to increase by 69 percent, from
56.0 million to 94.7 million."

"In 2020, it is projected that the older adult
population could include 92,000 centenarians, and the number
could increase to nearly 600,000 by 2060"

"In 1960, there were 6.0 working-age adults for every
person age 65 or older.13 The ratio is projected to drop to 3.6
by 2020 and even further—to 2.4—by 2060. This projected
decrease in the number of workers relative to those who are
retired or can no longer work could have implications for the
old-age support systems currently in place."

 

[scott2000]

"3 ways that the U.S. population will change over the next decade"

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/3-ways-that-the-u-s-population-will-change-over-the-next-decade

"Between 2020 and 2030, the U.S. is expected to gain an additional 18.6 million people."

"The U.S. is getting older and it’s going to keep getting older.

Today, there are over 74.1 million people under age 18 in the U.S. country. There are 56.4 million people age 65 and older.

Ten years from now, there will almost be as many old folks as there are young ones. The numbers of young people will have grown just a little to 76.3 million, but the numbers of old people will have increased a lot – to 74.1 million. A lot of these new elderly will be baby boomers. "

"the number of centenarians in the U.S. grew from over 53,000 in 2010 to over 90,000 in 2020. By 2030, there will most likely be over 130,000 centenarians in the U.S"

 

[scott2000]

Another neat site. Population estimates is one data set.

People over 80 is growing fast....Even the people over 95 is incredible...

I've heard about these SDG. Sustainable Development Goals.....

You can see for instance if the projection of WHOever's (UN) goals are met with contraception vs slower progress (I just selected 15-19 year olds) ....Kinda creepy.... obviously the goal is less population...Dare you to look at the infant and younger child goals....or early neonatal  to under 5 years old as they're labeled ....

https://vizhub.healthdata.org/population-forecast/



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYvLWHohOlY

 

[sodderboy]

Productivity gains and increasing automation can make up for it.

Always the Zero-Summer!  Nothing new in 2021 so far.  Look through/ahead of your statement and see the lines of unemployed who were replaced by soft/hardware, unemployed, under-educated cattle who will not be paying into the SS system- who will become negative inputs to the economy.  They enjoyed "justified, living wages" of $15 minimum for a short time, but got sacked because they are replaceable by machine.

SS is really a trickle concern for those who have DC accounts.  Look at your juicy 401K's folks!  All that dough has grown un-taxxed.  Just see how it will be taxxed when you withdrawal in 5-30 years.  YOU will be funding SS from the other side by high taxxes when you pull $$ out of the accounts.  Cha-chingaroonie! 

Happy New Year!
Mike

 

[Scodiddly]

Always the Zero-Summer!  Nothing new in 2021 so far.  Look through/ahead of your statement and see the lines of unemployed who were replaced by soft/hardware, unemployed, under-educated cattle who will not be paying into the SS system- who will become negative inputs to the economy.  They enjoyed "justified, living wages" of $15 minimum for a short time, but got sacked because they are replaceable by machine.

What would happen if we got to the point where almost everything is automated and we've got goods and food basically for free?  Could most of us then basically go on permanent vacation, create art, etc?

Or would the people who own the means of production force us to either keep working or starve?

I think we're already well into the second scenario.

 

[living sounds]

A significant part of the economy consists of BS jobs already. The ratio of marketing vs R&D / production is pretty lopsided as it is. Macroeconomically it is a giant waste of resources, just inefficiency. Very similar to the ever growing bureaucratic overhead of taxes, compliance, legal.

Increasing automation is inevitable and going to explode across the board with certain technical milestones. The basic technology that allows a robot to selectively pick fruit is the same that allows it to cook meals or clean bathrooms. Same goes for the technology that enables an AI to prepare a tax declaration, analyze a contract, calculate expenses. Or drive a car, fly a plane, a drone etc.

But why would you call people "cattle"? What does that reflect on you?

 

[JohnRoberts]

What would happen if we got to the point where almost everything is automated and we've got goods and food basically for free?  Could most of us then basically go on permanent vacation, create art, etc?

Labor as a major cost component in consumer products has been diminishing for decades thanks to automation. I bailed from my kit business in the 80s when that calculus turned unfavorable for consumers to build kits themselves to save money.

The other significant cost inputs have not gone away... (electricity, raw material, capital equipment, etc). 

Or would the people who own the means of production force us to either keep working or starve?

starve... why ask people to work if you don't have productive work for them to do...? But that is a false choice. Large scale automation changes the nature of work, often requiring new skills and education/training. Some of the large corporations who can't find enough skilled workers are actually training them themselves.

Unskilled labor (like ditch digging) is not a good long term career path, never was but worse now. 

I think we're already well into the second scenario.

Good luck... you can fix the machines or be replaced by them.

JR

 

[cyrano]

The minimum wage a large part of the employed depend upon, has NO benefits and wasn't raised much since the fifties.

If you have a large part of the employed unable to even meet rent, even if working lots of overtime, it should be clear you have a problem of enormous proportions on your hands. The unemployed aren't even in that equation.

I fear another large part of the US population isn't simply able to understand that. Another part doesn't care one bit.

Add to that that a decent education is extremely expensive in the USA. That seems to be the reason not many are able to understand.

And even when they understood, the land of the free is caged into a two-party system that's lost the democratic model a long time ago. The difference with Russia being that the Russians never had a democratic model. To the average Russian it might still seem going forward. I wonder how that looks to the average American?

 

[scott2000]

Interesting trivia... wow...10,000 every day for the next 19 years??  that was 10 years ago....

As the year 2011 began on Jan. 1, the oldest members of the Baby Boom generation celebrated their 65th birthday. In fact, on that day, today, and for every day for the next 19 years, 10,000 baby boomers will reach age 65

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2010/12/29/baby-boomers-retire/