Making Electronics Just Got 25% More Expensive In The US (?)

[ruairioflaherty]

https://hackaday.com/2018/06/15/making-electronics-just-got-25-more-expensive-in-the-us/

It's a blog I usually only read for fun, so I can't vouch for the accuracy of the info.

 

[JohnRoberts]

https://hackaday.com/2018/06/15/making-electronics-just-got-25-more-expensive-in-the-us/

It's a blog I usually only read for fun, so I can't vouch for the accuracy of the info.

I stopped watching the financial news channel today after hearing trade war repeated 50 times before 9AM. 

A round of US sanctions against China went into effect today and wanting to not look like the aggressor China very carefully waited until these were imposed to announce their counter-sanctions. Contrary to the financial reporter "sky is falling" screed the stock market hardly bumped.... Gold is down today but all my remaining stock positions are green today.

I hope most people can see that this is a negotiation to get reciprocal treatment for our exports.  I have already shared that the two largest German car company's are asking for 0% auto tariffs coming and going, reportedly Angela Merkel is supportive (duh).

China is not a democracy so they can do whatever they want but the math is not in their favor.  Since they export far more to us than they import from us they will never win a tit for tat exchange.  Right now China is proposing very targeted tariffs on pork and some farm products to hopefully inflict political pain on President Trump.   

Right now this is a PR battle with both sides trying to characterize the other as the bad guy. Media seems to be rooting for China (actually against President Trump).  This would be a classic leaning out the window contest but China is leaning out of a much taller window than we are, so based on that math we should come out ahead.  I expect the news spin to call this an end of the world as we know it crisis. 

Yes this is serious, and no I do not agree with everything President Trump says about balance of trade (we all benefit from buying cheap goods). I do agree that we need better IP protections from China, and reciprocal trade with everybody.  While china is not a democracy so they don't need to worry about elections, the leadership is very invested in the personal wealth and satisfaction of it's workers to keep them supportive of their leader for life.  China probably wants to end this dispute even more than we do, but doesn't want to appear weak. It's time for the negotiator in chief to come up with some kind of win-win. 

I remain optimistic but there may be a few bumps in the road, in the near term.

JR 

 

 

[ruffrecords]

China is not the only country Trump is messing with. He already announced tarriff's on European steel. No prior discussion, no warning. Looks like he is trying to erect economic barriers around the whole USA. I thought we had seen th last of protectionism.

Cheers

Ian

Edit: Here is a link to the full list of tit for tat:

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0706/976801-trade-tariffs-factbox/

Ian

 

[john12ax7]

Will be interesting how this all plays out.  Tariffs don't often end well,  but will there be a push away from cheap disposable electronics? That could possibly be a good thing.

The effect on the debt and interest rates could be significant,  as China loans the US tons of money to buy their stuff.

 

[Tubetec]

I'll have to digest this post in the morn, hopefully its not Johns usual 'beat around the bush routine' and back to square one .

 

[Tubetec]

empty space

 

[boji]

This would be a classic leaning out the window contest but China is leaning out of a much taller window than we are, so based on that math we should come out ahead

Nice metaphore

 

[boji]

I thought we had seen th last of protectionism.

I more agree with JR in that it's mostly posturing-  Make a previous agreement seem as unfair and as offensively actionable as possible early on, so when a compromise is hashed out, the aggrieved still comes out ahead.  I'm sure there's a better way to say it.  Of course it's risky. 
And I'm not so sure the 'art of the deal' can outwit 5k? years of confucianism and sun tzu.  =P

 

[ruffrecords]

I more agree with JR in that it's mostly posturing-  Make a previous agreement seem as unfair and as offensively actionable as possible early on, so when a compromise is hashed out, the aggrieved still comes out ahead.  I'm sure there's a better way to say it.  Of course it's risky. 
And I'm not so sure the 'art of the deal' can outwit 5k? years of confucianism and sun tzu.  =P

I think you are right, it's a negotiating ploy. Kick 'em inna nuts and then offer them some soothing cream.

Cheers

Ian

 

[Tubetec]

Excuse last nights outburst John,my humble apologies 


Without wanting to add fuel to the fire or sensationalize for the sake of effect ,if the brexit isnt agreed its seem likely Europe is effectively in a trade war with the UK . On the plus side here ferry and shipping trade with continental Europe is being ramped up signifigantly . In supermarkets here such as Lidl and Aldi ,the lions share of the stock on the shelves is produced in the UK and packaging and branding are identical in any case. Could we now be facing a hike of 25% on all goods that are shipped from the Uk to Ireland ? thats gonna hurt people on the breadline most    ( I'll save the expletives I feel like directing at politicians for now) 

Its just a bummer to even think about it alI I agree,and having main stream media giving you a full frontal lobotomy by drilling TW into your brain hurts like *&%$* I'd imagine. 50 inch plasma with surround sound really allows it grab at your soul  too. Save a couple of minutes of news a day on a portable size tv that advertising  nuisance is gone out of my life forever.
When a guest at someone elses house and the adds come on ,I feel like pulling out a crucifix and shouting 'back down into hell with you evil ' ,theres just an instant rush of feelbad/anxiety chemicals released when you behold it and thats engineered in .Anxiety addiction ,spreading like wildfire in the younger generations especially ,modern mainstream media should come with a 'causes cancer' badge and a mental health warning.

 

[Tubetec]

You could always polish up the old side arm John,and put the tv out of its misery Elvis style  ;D

 

[JohnRoberts]

You could always polish up the old side arm John,and put the tv out of its misery Elvis style  ;D

That wouldn't make much sense when I can just change the channel to play music. It doesn't make me angry, more sad or disappointed than angry. 
------
My next complaint is how the search engines don't answer my questions, they just tell me what the sundry news services are pushing as "news" (cough).

I want to add some actual significant data to this thread but haven't sourced it yet...I gave up my search last night.

My yard is calling me to mow it now, so maybe tomorrow, I'll find the info I am looking for (no it isn't on twitter or youtube).

JR

 

[ruffrecords]

Without wanting to add fuel to the fire or sensationalize for the sake of effect ,if the brexit isnt agreed its seem likely Europe is effectively in a trade war with the UK . On the plus side here ferry and shipping trade with continental Europe is being ramped up signifigantly . In supermarkets here such as Lidl and Aldi ,the lions share of the stock on the shelves is produced in the UK and packaging and branding are identical in any case.

Interesting. In the UK, a lot of Lidl produce  comes from Ireland or continental Europe. Apart from obvious things like milk and meat, it is hard to find British produce in either shop.

Cheers

Ian

 

[Tubetec]

Well to be fair there is a good range of Irish stuff in both stores here , ,maybe in some small way Brexit could force lidl and aldi to source more of their products locally ,might be some small pluses in that for small to medium enterprise  ,but again we dont really know how import/export is going to work post exit .Kinda feels like Trump has set the seeds for a trade war by proxy.The stepping up of the right wing further afield in continental europe is no doubt emboldened by the blond haired blue eyed presidents words too.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Well to be fair there is a good range of Irish stuff in both stores here , ,maybe in some small way Brexit could force lidl and aldi to source more of their products locally ,might be some small pluses in that for small to medium enterprise  ,but again we dont really know how import/export is going to work post exit .Kinda feels like Trump has set the seeds for a trade war by proxy.The stepping up of the right wing further afield in continental europe is no doubt emboldened by the blond haired blue eyed presidents words too.

In this case President Trump is just pointing at the elephant in the room that politicians prefer to ignore and settle trade disputes in closed door smoke filled rooms.  Trade between EU and UK was an expected issue of contention before President Trump was elected. Arguably Brexit (wave of nationalism) is more father to Trump than the other way around.  But he makes a popular target.

JR

PS: While I am no expert on your food markets Lidl and Aldi chains are known for selling lots of cheaper private label store brands. If they can source these cheaply locally they will, but I wouldn't bet on that.

 

[boji]

I feel like pulling out a crucifix

Get thee behind me, targeted ad algorithm!

 

[pucho812]

does the duck duck  search engine filter things out or not?

 

[ruffrecords]

PS: While I am no expert on your food markets Lidl and Aldi chains are known for selling lots of cheaper private label store brands. If they can source these cheaply locally they will, but I wouldn't bet on that.

Generally only fresh produce is sourced locally in both. Tins and packets and jars etc are all continental brands. Their Tower brand gingernuts are to died for and only 25p for a big packet.

Cheers

Ian

 

[Tubetec]

I suppose its fair comment John, to say the nationalistic  front in europe  has been on the rise long before Trump came to power,but thats not to say his rhethoric and divisionary tactics hasnt added impetus to it either .Couple that to migration issues on the ground ,powder keg by pure accident? I think surely not

For the sake of a price comparrison between lidl and top shelf brands ,box of breakfeast cerial big name brand 5euros 500grams,
lidl own brand knock off 79 cents for 750 grams ,to be fair about it I do detect a difference in the quality of the grains and fruit and nuts between the brands ,but the ten fold increase in price isnt reflected ,if you had hungry mouths to feed youd gladly take the change from the own brand product.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I more agree with JR in that it's mostly posturing-  Make a previous agreement seem as unfair and as offensively actionable as possible early on, so when a compromise is hashed out, the aggrieved still comes out ahead.  I'm sure there's a better way to say it.  Of course it's risky. 
And I'm not so sure the 'art of the deal' can outwit 5k? years of confucianism and sun tzu.  =P

I have read "the art of war" 2x working on my third pass through.  8)

The chinese stock market is down a bunch since January. While the chinese leadership does not tweet about its stock market, they notice. They need to manage economic sentiment to keep millionaires from leaving dodge with their millions (of course capital controls complicate that, but better to not motivate successful people to get clever).

=====

I have had a hard time finding solid data on this but between US and EU it looks like slightly higher tariffs against US but this is distorted by EU-EU  trade, and as a fraction of total trade it is low single digit so not that significant.

Trade tariffs from China are more significant, not to mention IP theft and other trade related bad behaviors.

JR 

@pucho  duck duck was not much better, I suspect it is the nature of how search engines spit out most popular news, not actual answers.