Math: exponential growth of feral cat populations

[JohnRoberts]

I am watching this play out in real time... I have a kind hearted neighbor that feeds several of his own cats , and strays that wander into his yard, including a couple possums, and one time a family of red foxes.

Last years one of his females dropped a litter in my carport. That one (named Midnight) looks pregnant again, and there are possibly two others in the family way... this could easily get out of hand.

 

[crazydoc]

My daughter was an active participant in TNR (trap-neuter-return) efforts to deal with feral cat colonies when she lived in Brooklyn. I don't know how successful these programs are, as it is estimated there are a million or more feral cats in NYC. The cats do keep down rodent populations but certainly cause other problems.

We've taken in ten or so abandoned cats out here in the boonies and neutered and fed them, but food and vet costs do mount up, and it's sad when the coyotes get them. It's too bad humans can't take responsibility for their (in)actions.

 

[JohnRoberts]

For the record these are my neighbor's cats and he has history with the group... He grew up on a farm so understands cat math.

Over the years he has spayed/neutered several that then proceeded to get run over by cars. I doubt there was any direct cause and effect, but humans find causal links from simple coincidence consciously or subconsciously.

The nearest TNR clinic is around 50-60 miles away and around $65 each cat last time I checked.

I have been speculating about a strategy to limit the food to only the small handful (less than a half dozen) that he claims as his personal pets. They make electronic cat doors that respond to magnets or RFID chips on cat collars. If the food was disbursed behind a secure portal, the extra strays without free food would likely move on. The couple of fecund female pets could be spayed.

One clever strategy I read about was to give the dominant tom cat a vasectomy. Apparently cats in heat stop ovulating after they have been penetrated so that could keep a close knit group under control. But I have seen how these females behave when they are in heat, and they will find stray tom cats to hook up with. I see lots of cat-cat love in my neighbor's yard.

My neighbor surprised me when he mentioned the possibility of maybe shooting a few of them. Another red neck strategy is drive them deeper out into the country and releasing them. Unlike dogs they won't find their way back.

I have been whispering in my neighbor's ear about my thoughts (smart pet door to restrict community food), but he is even older than I am and not very enthusiastic... He has regained some personal energy since he got stents put in a few weeks ago.

I have speculated about birth control in the food but that apparently isn't easy to manage, like the salt-peter the army put in the chow (folk lore?).

JR

 

[iomegaman]

Feral cats are not really that big of an issue in Tucson, because...Coyotes...its really strange to drive around in the middle of the day and see wild canine coyotes crossing medians...
Of course small dogs let outside to do their thing also disappear...a friend of mine watched their family dog of 10 years go over the wall in the mouth of one of our local predators.

 

[Tubetec]

Animal welfare here is completely overwhelmed with unwanted pets , mainly dogs that were got during lockdown .
Lack of proper socialisation has led to many with behavioral issues , they end up going crazy and self harming if their sent to kennels .
They end up having to be tranquillised in the short term , then if a new home cant be found there destroyed .

Vetinary medicine here has a few dark secrets that arent known to many , vets often offer free or very cheap neutering , they intice new owners to have their female dogs spayed , often before 6 months of age . This is problematic because the dogs havent reached maturity .
One of my dogs had this done under advice given to my mother by the local vet . It caused an issue with hair growth on the dogs belly which means the skin in that area has no protection from sunlight or when the dog runs through furze it can come home covered in scratches and scrapes . Proper dog owners know , you should allow a female dog come into heat at least once before considering having them snipped .
I did some asking around and found out the reason vets try and incentivise people , there a hidden trade in body parts , its to do with medical testing that takes place in pharmaceutical companies , in very much the same way the medical system in Ireland has been involved in missappropriation of human body parts for the same reasons noted above , theres money in it .

Vets make a killing off pure bred dogs with genetic predispositions to diseases of one kind or another ,
the breeders dont care a damn about animal welfare , they breed what sells and is in demand ,
New owners often havent a clue of these genetic issues that their cutie pie has going on ,
Its directly attributable to mankinds interference , selective inbreeding of animals to force certain looks/characteristics , its human vanity leading to the trade in show dogs at the detriment of animal health , its disgusting and abhorrent to me . The mighty Alsation is more or less finished as a breed in this country , I often see puppies with the tell tale signs of hip displaysia very early .
This is all good news for vets , they get to take the owners to the cleaners . I never heard a vet advise people to stay clear of breeds damaged by human interference ,animal welfare is way down the list of priorities , bank balance is top it seems.

Vetinary medicine and big Pharma , no surprise their in bed together , its a convenient way to get past phase 1 animal testing and start up human trials of their new molecules.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Mr sunshine....

I was researching the possibility of putting birth control into the community feed, but the hormones don't work that way...

If I can get my neighbor to limit the feed to only his actual pets, that will solve one part of the problem. Then it will be cheaper, easier to spay/neuter the small single digit handful of pets...

Right now we are on a path to exponential growth.

JR

 

[Tubetec]

Ive two dogs , there your typical mixed breed farmyard terrier , voracious hunters with loads of personality , in fact they once had a badger cornered in the garden , it took two hours before the howling stopped and Mr Badger was allowed back to his set ,
If they see the fox they give chase fearlessly , but Mr Fox knows the hedgerows and ditches better than them and always gets away unharmed . This is what dogs are supposed to do , your average indoor 'show bred' dog apart from usually being a wee bit simple wont have much hunting instincts left , of course many breeds were descended from working dogs but people just want dumbed down version nowadays , it just has to look pretty and sit around on the sofa , look what we've done to mans best friend , its a pityfull reflection but were doing exactly the same to humans now with this Woke/Snowflake ideology .

Arbitrairily dosing out the wild cat population with hormones would in all likelyhood just cause further needless suffering and an imbalance ,
Tom cats will readily kill and eat anothers offspring , thats what keeps the population in check and the successful genes going and the weak ones gone .
The moment we try and intervene we end up creating further imbalance and then were into laws of unintended consequences , more often than not with disasterous results .

 

[JohnRoberts]

Arbitrairily dosing out the wild cat population with hormones would in all likelyhood just cause further needless suffering and an imbalance ,

Again, I researched that and it isn't practical. There is no such thing as birth control medicine for male cats, and dosing females must be age appropriate, size appropriate, etc.

Tom cats will readily kill and eat anothers offspring , thats what keeps the population in check and the successful genes going and the weak ones gone .

That does not seem to be happening in this community... but the random stray tom cats are more than willing to help the agreeable females in heat to get preggers

The moment we try and intervene we end up creating further imbalance and then were into laws of unintended consequences , more often than not with disasterous results .

I am not done, but my primary focus is on restricting the free food for all comers. After that selective neutering/spaying for the actual pet cats that remain after the free food party stops. I think my neighbor only acknowledges about 5 of them as his pets.

My neighbor is a good old boy who grew up on a farm, and this isn't his first rodeo, so I'm sure he has other options in mind. I am just looking at possible ways to apply electronic technology (like putting the food behind smart electronic cat doors that only the small handful of approved pets can access). This will also reduce his significant cat food bill.

JR

 

[Tubetec]

Perhaps encouraging a large and successful Tom cat take up residence nearby might help keep others away for a while , then again the gene pool cant get stagnated either or entropy sets in ,
There were friends of mine who had a very tough tom cat around for years , he didnt lounge around the house all day , he'd be away roving for days on end then show up hungry battered and bruised , get fed ,allow his wounds heal and then do the same all over again .
They also had an intact female , very much more dossile and friendly than the tom .
As far as I know female cats can give birth to the offspring of more than one male in the same litter ,
The male can sense it not his and in that case might hurt or kill the kitten , we saw that happen a few times over the years .

The reality is you may have to selectively cull as each new litter comes along just to keep things in check ,
methods vary , the usual thing here was into a pillow case an into the river ,
I recall a story about a local farm labourer from a friend , a neighbour who had a large litter of cats asked him once to dispose of kittens , he could have just walked 100 meters and put the bag of cats into the river , instead he threw the bag on the ground and danced up and down on it , the children could see this unfold from a distance and were traumatised by it , he was always a gruff and unpleasent man anyway .

Having a smaller mixed farmyard type dog around might be a good way to push back the felines and keep them in check ,
Another major plus of pet ownership is companionship , dogs are especially loyal , way more so than most humans .
Giving it a daily walk ,you'll end up meeting people along the way and maybe even striking up new friendships , something that gets alot more difficult as we advance in years . Another great plus is I almost never have to throw out leftover food , my doggies are happy to gobble up what I dont use , of course their droppings need picking up every day from the garden , but that just becomes part of the routine .
Farm dogs in the USA tend to be big , stands to reason if you have bobcats, coytes and mountain lions trying take your live stock .

 

[cyrano]

I'd advise a Rhodesian ridgeback.

 

[JohnRoberts]

More sunshine? You forgot the part about putting a brick in the pillowcase to make sure they sink, otherwise they might not drown.

And no I'm not going to get a dog that kills cats.

JR

 

[Tubetec]

That wasnt what I was suggesting John ,

A cat is far more agile than any dog , did you ever see a dog climb a tree ?
A dog in the 10-15 pound range , a cats 9 lives factor kicks in ,he gets away 99/100 times in a domestic situation ,
where a fence or tree provides refuge ,
A small dog acts as a deterent in your own back yard , he's top of the food chain ,but he's not that hungry he has to bother hunting the wildlife ,only for sport of it .

 

[JohnRoberts]

at least cats are better at climbing back down.

JR

 

[Tubetec]

The fire brigade here will charge a levy if they get called out on jobs like that ,
Getting a 40 or 50 lb dog down out of a tree isnt easy .

I had a cordyline tree in my old place , the bark is more like cork ,
One of my dogs , I call her Monkey , ended up in it a few times and needed rescue

I had a look online and the situation stateside seems similar to here post lockdown , thousands of dogs looking for homes ,often pedigree animals with price tags into the 1000's ,

Ive my hands full where I am with my two ,
Down the line I want to get a new dog , my two never had the chance at parenthood due to the vets advice , as I said it effected the female both in terms of physical development and temperament . Giving them the chance to be mommy and daddy to a puppy will bring a new lease of life .

The lurcher is a magnifcent cross breed we have here ,
It hasnt been destroyed by incest like many of the kennel club abominations ,
Colour ,appearance and size vary greatly ,

https://www.paws.ie/things-i-wish-i-knew-adopting-lurcher/

 

[JohnRoberts]

I miss my old Dalmatian (RIP) but I am too old to handle a full sized dog now... a couple years ago I grabbed a beautiful young setter that had broken his(?) rope and was running loose through my neighborhood. I grabbed the rope end and he pulled me around like a rag doll until I had to let go. He wasn't even fully grown yet.

JR

 

[midwayfair]

at least cats are better at climbing back down.

JR

except tiggers, their tails get in the way

 

[JohnRoberts]

I've never seen a cat skeleton up in a tree.. . they managed to get down by themselves before the fire deptments started rescuing cats.

JR

 

[user 37518]

I am watching this play out in real time... I have a kind hearted neighbor that feeds several of his own cats , and strays that wander into his yard, including a couple possums, and one time a family of red foxes.

Last years one of his females dropped a litter in my carport. That one (named Midnight) looks pregnant again, and there are possibly two others in the family way... this could easily get out of hand.

That model is called the Malthusian model. But it assumes that stuff only keeps growing indefinitely, without consider other variables like, how when the population reaches a certain point, the effect of the environment and so on tend to stabilize it and reduce the rate of growth. The exponential model that just keeps growing is not true for most cases, that is, in your image if you keep going you end up with an infinite number of cats, that, of course, doesn't happen. That "reducing" effect as stuff grows is what Dr. Science (aka Fauchi) meant when he mentioned "flattening the curve" during COVID

 

[JohnRoberts]

Of course but I am worried about tens of potential cats if the handful of fecund females mate successfully. I occasionally see them doing the horizontal boogie in my neighbor's yard so wouldn't be surprised if one or more is already in the family way.

I have pulled back the cover on my riding mower so I don't find a litter of new kittens up there some morning. Cats routinely take shelter under the cover. Last year one dropped a litter in my carport under an old tarp.

I am working with my neighbor to try to restrict food to only his recognized pets. I don't think he is as enthusiastic as I am about the electronic door to restrict access to the community food bowls. We'll see.

JR

 

[user 37518]

Of course but I am worried about tens of potential cats if the handful of fecund females mate successfully. I occasionally see them doing the horizontal boogie in my neighbor's yard so wouldn't be surprised if one or more is already in the family way.

I have pulled back the cover on my riding mower so I don't find a litter of new kittens up there some morning. Cats routinely take shelter under the cover. Last year one dropped a litter in my carport under an old tarp.

I am working with my neighbor to try to restrict food to only his recognized pets. I don't think he is as enthusiastic as I am about the electronic door to restrict access to the community food bowls. We'll see.

JR

My father used to tell me stories about a guy he knew, who hated cats so much, that used to set them on fire whenever they invaded his property. I don't suggest you follow the same practice....