Self driving cars....

[Seeker]

What is the obsession with them these days?  Out of all the things that technology can do for us, I feel like a self driving car is pretty far down on the list of importance...  It seems to me like that kind of thing  would be more applicable to farm equipment than cars on the road.  Also, it doesn't seem like the accidents that have been happening involving self driving cars are quelling the fever for them.  Personally, I don't think I'd get in one....

 

[tands]

They want it soon. Drivers are a problem for their business model.

In the world where uber owns a fleet of autonomous vehicles first mover advantage would have been huge and unassailable. This is decades away, however and I doubt uber will still be around then (not to mention the fact that the motor giants are probably perfectly capable of running their own fleets).

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/06/uber-spinning-control-employees-eyeing-exits-press-finally-starts-question-business-model.html

 

[JohnRoberts]

What is the obsession with them these days?  Out of all the things that technology can do for us, I feel like a self driving car is pretty far down on the list of importance...  It seems to me like that kind of thing  would be more applicable to farm equipment than cars on the road.  Also, it doesn't seem like the accidents that have been happening involving self driving cars are quelling the fever for them.  Personally, I don't think I'd get in one....

Actually humans are pretty crappy drivers, and easily distracted (texting anyone?). I expect self-driving trucks before self-driving cars but is is inevitable and will save thousands of lives a year, not to mention reducing costs. Delivery drones don't have live pilots, or won't in the future.

In the future people probably won't even own cars, just call them up when needed (like some in cities do already, but with human drivers).

The real question is what about all the unskilled workers left without a gig.  A lot of people drive for living.

JR

 

[PRR]

> I feel like a self driving car is pretty far down on the list of importance...

"I can drive OK" (?), but I sure wish most other idiot drivers on the road would turn the job over to a faithful predictable machine.

Also the cars will talk to each other, reducing a lot of confusion.

> more applicable to farm equipment

A lot of farm equipment has been following lasers and GPS for many years.

> self-driving trucks

New-to-route UPS driver just tried to give me a package for someone else. Saved by a funny-beep on his scanner. The machines know where stuff goes, moreso than the humans.

> the accidents that have been happening involving self driving cars

I do not have the statistics. Also the current on-road testing of self-drive is not as all-around as general driving. However I suspect that per road/mile the recent machines are beginning to rack-up a better record than we are. Every day the small local newspaper lists 2 to 5 serious human-driver accidents. Driver takes a green light and does not see/hear the ambulance crossing. Tougher case: motorcyclist (harder to automate) goes into a tree and isn't found for hours. That's just today.

Drove my parents' snazzy new Subaru with lots of driver assistance. It did all the right things. I nudge the centerline to avoid a pothole and it alerted. A car jumped in front of me and it got ready to hit the brakes. BTW, it also slows-down when you come to a 25MPH zone. And sometimes it does this by recognizing the 25MPH sign, something I don't always do.

 

[Phrazemaster]

I'm as rebellious as the next guy, and I hate the thought of giving up driving autonomy. Irony in the word auto in autonomy.

However, as PRR said, self-driving will be the wave of the future. It will be illegal for humans to drive on some roads - you'll get fined like a carpool violation.

And as PRR said, the cars will talk to each other so they will be able to be MUCH safer as the tech matures. Higher speeds, higher densities of cars on the same roads - a heck of a lot of efficiencies we don't come near. Not to mention the higher safety, faster overall roads, and reduction of stress for riding in cars.

But I hate - HATE - the machine world that is coming. I'm not so certain that Terminator stories are so far off.

 

[Seeker]

Also the cars will talk to each other, reducing a lot of confusion.

I have no doubt that you are correct... but I wish someone would start by synchronizing the light where I live, It feels like the gridlock is on purpose... 

New-to-route UPS driver just tried to give me a package for someone else. Saved by a funny-beep on his scanner. The machines know where stuff goes, moreso than the humans.

I have had a very different experience, but mostly with Fedex.  Recently I had a package, a heavy (and expensive) power amp delivered 4 houses down from me and signed for by the landscaper.  It actually said "Landscaper" for the signature, kinda made me wonder what the point of signatures are at all.  My neighbor brought it to my house later in the evening, but Fedex had no idea what was going on.

There are some very good points made in this thread, and maybe I'm just afraid of Skynet, but I feel like even simple things don't work as they should yet... I have yet to see a computer system that doesn't have some occasional hiccups or glitches.  Although it's a very different situation, stories like the one below make me think that populating the roads with self driving cars is not what we should be focusing on, at least not yet.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/03/15/lawsuit-defective-robot-killed-factory-worker/99199928/

 

[Phrazemaster]

I have no doubt that you are correct... but I wish someone would start by synchronizing the light where I live, It feels like the gridlock is on purpose... 
I have had a very different experience, but mostly with Fedex.  Recently I had a package, a heavy (and expensive) power amp delivered 4 houses down from me and signed for by the landscaper.  It actually said "Landscaper" for the signature, kinda made me wonder what the point of signatures are at all.  My neighbor brought it to my house later in the evening, but Fedex had no idea what was going on.

There are some very good points made in this thread, and maybe I'm just afraid of Skynet, but I feel like even simple things don't work as they should yet... I have yet to see a computer system that doesn't have some occasional hiccups or glitches.  Although it's a very different situation, stories like the one below make me think that populating the roads with self driving cars is not what we should be focusing on, at least not yet.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/03/15/lawsuit-defective-robot-killed-factory-worker/99199928/

I read an article awhile back where a city purposely changed their light timings to cause an additional 1/4 second delay at lights, to cause more fuel to be burned - I guess a back deal with oil companies. No, I'm not making this up!

Also, all these self-driving cars with their little cameras and sensors - how well will they work when it's raining or snowing? Will they have little defrosters or de-icers to make sure they are seeing things correctly? What happens if a bug splats, or a bird goes, on a camera sensor in a self-driving car?

Disaster be your lucky day...

PS - I could not read the article - it was asking for a USA Today subscription.

 

[ruffrecords]

I can see a future Independence Day movie where the aliens simply knock out the GPS satellites and our entire transport system grinds to a halt. Or if Clive Cussler did Space Opera it could be evil earthbound overlord bent on world domination.

How about we write a group book?

Cheers

Ian

 

[frans]

So the company that will handle the system with self driving cars is 100% trustworthy, right? Which big company comes to mind? None? Perhaps the goverment, they are 100% trustworthy and only have best intentions, right? It's already possible to manipulate a modern car with a laptop from 200ft distance to the point of making it have an accident, that was demonstrated by some hackers who tried to show the press what kind of "safety" the car companies put on the street (2005).
Total dependency from somebody elses system and good intentions when you drive, IF you are allowed to drive and you don't like that? Funny how nobody ever asks you, if you want this future, they always hammer in that this will be the future. Also your car will fine you if you do something wrong, later the private ownership of cars will be restricted, it's already written into "agenda 2100". Brave new world. I thought americans weren't that submissive.

 

[sahib]

So the company that will handle the system with self driving cars is 100% trustworthy, right? Which big company comes to mind? None? Perhaps the goverment, they are 100% trustworthy and only have best intentions, right? It's already possible to manipulate a modern car with a laptop from 200ft distance to the point of making it have an accident, that was demonstrated by some hackers who tried to show the press what kind of "safety" the car companies put on the street (2005).
.........

I can see a future Independence Day movie where the aliens simply knock out the GPS satellites and our entire transport system grinds to a halt........

Ian

Without meaning to be smug these are the two things that comes to my mind immediately.

I earn my living from the technology, same as the most of us here on this forum. So, I  can't be against it. But I am sick and tired of this obsession with the technology that somehow it has to rule our lives and the people who drive this obsession.

 

[midwayfair]

Just in case anyone seriously wants to learn something useful from this, and even contribute:

1) Self-driving cars require human-sourced morality data, because there will still be situations where a self-driving car must interact with a human being. For lack of a better explanation, you can contribute your solution to trolley problems: http://moralmachine.mit.edu/

This gives you a seat at the table. It's like voting. It will also give you some idea of where you stand in relation to your fellow humans. Remember, people are creating these things. People who are technically-minded like most of the people on this forum.

2) The Internet of Things problems are the philosophical and coding solutions to dealing with some of the things mentioned in this thread -- things like how do you ensure that a self-driving car is reliable and built by trustworthy actors, what are the checks and balances on manufacturers and government oversight, how to do prevent the government from hacking your car so they can pull you over or just run you into a tree (.... hopefully we'll never need to worry about that in the U.S. ... it's not like our CIA keeps lists of exploits around, right?). This is a subset of the burgeoning CS area of the internet of things. Here's an overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_of_things

 

[JohnRoberts]

This discussion got interesting, with a touch of paranoia. I'd like to learn more about that city tweaking stop lights to waste gas.  ;D ;D

Self driving vehicles will be safer than human drivers, but that is not very difficult. 

Traffic jams are generally caused and/or made worse by humans poorly managing speed... by driving slowly in heavy traffic, you can often average a higher speed than the hurry up and stop pattern we humans lapse into. This seems obvious for self driving cars to coordinate speeds to reduce congestion. There will likely also be pay to cruise where commuters can pay extra for faster transit in congested zones. 

I suspect there will be redundant GPS or location references. A vehicle can literally learn the way home from driving it every day... GPS will be useful for visiting new locations. Cell towers can also be triangulated from, at least in populated areas with multiple tower reception. (In my crystal ball, roads will be energized to power EVs without requiring heavy batteries, and location ID can be built into that power distribution.)

Sensors are still in development with combinations of visual, IR, radar, etc. The high profile fatal tesla self-driving crash was caused by optics that misidentified a tractor trailer as open sky. Radar would not make that mistake, but look for more RF interference (possibly).

I got a fedex package delivered last week after the (new) driver called my home phone number, because her computer had her looking for my house miles away from where I live.    The computers are only as smart as the data they are given.

JR

PS: Science fiction has raised and investigated many of these fears about smart machines... Coincidentally I am currently reading I Robot, written in 1950 and it is amusing the predictions they make about technology for dates in what was the distant future from 1950, but now past history .

 

[dmp]

Automation offers improvements in efficiency as self driving cars can be more efficient (i.e. not accelerating to a red light and then braking, going the speed limit, etc...)
This is a key component to automakers meeting efficiency improvements to 2025.
The 'crashes' so far have been big sensational stories -  but it will not be hard to improve on safety since human drivers have a pretty high accident rate. The court of public opinion will be difficult though - as sensationalized stories and liability will have a different dynamic when an  accident involves a car is auto-driven vs human.
One of the biggest hurdles to overcome, IMO, as mentioned is hacking.
Once cars are self-driven, they will need a near perfect track record like air travel or they will be crucified in the press.

 

[andyfromdenver]

Coincidentally I am currently reading I Robot, written in 1950 and it is amusing the predictions they make about technology for dates in what was the distant future from 1950, but now past history .

I'm on the last pages of I Robot too, what a co-inky-dink ;-) aand you helped me with my circuit dilemma! What a super-Tuesday.
I have been on an Asimov kick, Foundation set my mind a reeling-in-the-years. 

I am pro sd cars, so I can peruse groupdiy enroute to work!

Andy

 

[JohnRoberts]

I'm on the last pages of I Robot too, what a co-inky-dink ;-) aand you helped me with my circuit dilemma! What a super-Tuesday.
I have been on an Asimov kick, Foundation set my mind a reeling-in-the-years. 

I am pro sd cars, so I can peruse groupdiy enroute to work!

Andy

Sorry if this is TMI but I have recently ramped up my book consumption, because the daily newspaper (WSJ)  that used to adequately consume my porcelain throne time in the morning , has lost so many pages to weaker advertising, and has shifted to pandering more to rich people  (not my demo), so I needed more morning reading material.  One of the more amusing things to me about the decline of WSJ ad pages is that the publisher had the stones to claim that they trimmed down the paper on purpose because they know how busy the readers are... : They are a business newspaper and they don't think the readers are smart enough  to see what is going on? (a lot of that going around these days).    8)

I have a handful of books in cue and just finished re-reading " a brief history of time". Two comments about that one... #1 don't read it just before watching science fiction movies involving space travel and time dilation. and #2 don't read it if you want to believe that the laws of physics are inviolate... The laws of physics break down inside a singularity.  :'(

I'm only on page 7 of I Robot, but I have a mix of other books in queue to read after that... a couple history books and one popular physics book ("Storm in a teacup") that I am looking forward to reading later. Reading the brief history of time was almost like work, I robot should be lighter reading. 

JR

PS: "Einstein" Relativity of time joke from a very old movie...Time relativity compares perception of time passing by so slowly while sitting in a dentist chair, versus time passing by so much faster with a pretty girl sitting in your lap. Joke was from maybe 1950.

 

[Gold]

If I have to take a long drive I would welcome a self driving car. I'd rather down a fifth of Jack and be happy when I get there.  Highway use seems more useful and easier than city or local use.

 

[Phrazemaster]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuhbqcMzOaw

Apparently all models have self-driving capabilities beyond that of a human driver, Tesla claim - including the upcoming Model 3.

 

[ramshackles]

What is the obsession with them these days?  Out of all the things that technology can do for us, I feel like a self driving car is pretty far down on the list of importance...  It seems to me like that kind of thing  would be more applicable to farm equipment than cars on the road.  Also, it doesn't seem like the accidents that have been happening involving self driving cars are quelling the fever for them.  Personally, I don't think I'd get in one....

Prevention of accidents is a good thing about ADA systems (advanced driver assistance). I don't know why they feel the need to go the whole hog and do full self driving straight away - reliably slowing down in the face of an obstacle would be a good first step. If everyone had a car that refused to  e.g. mount a pavement at speed, could it prevent the current terrorism trend of using a vehicle as a weapon?

There are ethical issues to get around first. The Geneva Convention and the Vienna Convention state that a driver must be fully in control of the vehicle at all times. So that needs changing before they can become legal.

To quote an article from the financial times - I'm sure there will come a time where the notion of humans manning something as dangerous as a car will seem as anachronistic and foolish as jousting or duelling

 

[JohnRoberts]

Self driving cars, like self flying air planes will make driving cars out of difficult circumstances another atrophied skill...  But since most can't drive very well now, lives will be saved.

I wish we had cars that could find their own way home back when I was partying hard...

JR

 

[Script]

The Japanese National Police Agency panel too is drafting a proposal right now to reduce accidents caused by drivers aged 75+ (dementia, visual impairments, slower reaction times).

One idea is to limit driving areas and times. But this strikes me as being overly discriminatory. Another idea is to make cars with automatic braking systems obligatory. This makes much more sense.

I don't particularly like driving (had my lifetime's share already), but when I do highways are the most boring. I wouldn't mind an 'automatic highway' mode. Also a 'traffic jam' mode makes sense or a 'rest mode' for when a driver is unfit for driving (being drunk**, taking a nap, answering the phone, reading a book etc).

** Unthinkable in Japan though, as drunk people are not allowed in cars. Private drivers can get fined big time for transporting drunk people (even in the back seats). Taxis and public busses are a different matter though.

Apart from that self-driving strikes me as just the latest 'toy' aimed at saving a highly saturated industry and market from seeing makers having to close down. We have too many car manufacturers.