Self driving cars....

[Phrazemaster]

S

I wish we had cars that could find their own way home back when I was partying hard...

JR

The Teslas have "Autopilot" mode which does just that.

 

[Phrazemaster]

We have too many car manufacturers.

Amen to that!

 

[benb]

In the future people probably won't even own cars, just call them up when needed (like some in cities do already, but with human drivers).

It may seem ironic, but in the long run this will reduce car sales due to more efficient car usage. Such self-driving fleet cars will be more efficient at picking up the next rider near the last rider's dropoff. They'll be maintained (oil change, etc. for gas engines, tire balance/rotate/replacement) during off hours, and during peaks a high percentage of available cars will be giving people rides. Vehicles will be well maintained and get their mileage maxed out (250,000+ miles) before being replaced.

It will seem like there are more vehicles than ever because one is always a five minutes away from the Call button on your smartphone app, but they'll be in use 12+ hours a day, as compared to current privately owned cars that go 1 to 4 hours a day through rush hour, then sit parked the rest of the time while the owner isn't commuting.

Riding in a personal self-driving rental car will be cheap, so much so it may put busses and mass transit out of business (unless they lower rates substantially) - currently the biggest cost of Uber and Lyft are the driver.

 

[JohnRoberts]

The Teslas have "Autopilot" mode which does just that.

Too late,to do me any good... I don't party like that any more.

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

Amen to that!

Now it is getting even more crowded (and confused) as major technology companies position to get their share of self driving vehicle industry.

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

Riding in a personal self-driving rental car will be cheap, so much so it may put busses and mass transit out of business (unless they lower rates substantially) - currently the biggest cost of Uber and Lyft are the driver.

Waymo just cut a deal with Avis to service their self driving cars, Apple is apparently working with Hertz...  The ride sharing apps have hobbled the rental business so this is a life line for them.

JR

 

[benb]

Too late,to do me any good... I don't party like that any more.

JR

I don't either, and I'm just trying to maintain reasonably good heath despite the years flying by. If for some reason  I become unable to drive (perhaps eyesight going bad), a self-driving car will a lot cheaper than hiring a driver, or staying at home all the time.

 

[Seeker]

It seems to me, that despite advantages that self driving cars could have, the reality is that they will be vulnerable for the foreseeable future...  maybe one day soon we'll be modding our cars to be non networked, so they can't be hacked.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2017/07/28/chinese-group-hacks-tesla-second-year-row/518430001/

 

[12afael]

my boss set a testdrive at tesla for us last year.  mainly to get ideas of new technologies (noone have the money for one...at the moment )
we were testing the self driving technology and the guy from tesla that was with us told my friend to press a button to surpass the car in front of us.  the car started doing the movement when abruptly it returned to the actual rail, we were scared as hell.  the car did that movement because a very fast car was surpassing us.  Probably the system saved our lives.

I saw some test of public transport here in Helsinki last year too.  I think is the future. but I´m still waiting flying cars...

 

[Script]

...but I´m still waiting flying cars...

I too am rather unlikely to get excited before we see them flying.
Until then, self-driving is little interesting unless equipped with toilets.

 

[JohnRoberts]

my boss set a testdrive at tesla for us last year.  mainly to get ideas of new technologies (noone have the money for one...at the moment )
we were testing the self driving technology and the guy from tesla that was with us told my friend to press a button to surpass the car in front of us.  the car started doing the movement when abruptly it returned to the actual rail, we were scared as hell.  the car did that movement because a very fast car was surpassing us.  Probably the system saved our lives.

I recall driving an army jeep leading a convoy on the German autobahn back in 1970... I had to keep a lookout in the rear view mirror for high speed drivers who would flash their headlights while still a great distance away. I had the jeep wound out (speedometer went all the way around and stopped on the peg but that was probably only 80 MPH or so). I had to look as far behind me as I could see because they were coming very fast, and wanted a clear lane.

I saw some test of public transport here in Helsinki last year too.  I think is the future. but I´m still waiting flying cars...

I wouldn't hold my breath for flying cars. The low altitude airspace will probably be filled by amazon delivery drones.

JR

 

[nielsk]

I find the idea of flying cars terrifying.. thinking of the idiots that are on the road now not being constrained by roads... the horror!
Self driving cars will take over, and soon,  just as we are in the last days of the petroleum age.
The MUCH larger impending ramification is that this will be a monumental factor in the coming paradigm shift in society, economy and government. Driving is one of the main the main employment occupation of males 30-50 in the USA., then there is the entire auto industry, maintenance to enthusiasts. The existing private ownership model may well cease to exist, as anyone will be able to summon a car when they need one, and the kids these days don't care about ownership as they have grown up with their parents as their UBER and most can't find their way home from around the block as they never gaze past their device to see the world around them.

 

[Phrazemaster]

I find the idea of flying cars terrifying.. thinking of the idiots that are on the road now not being constrained by roads... the horror!
Self driving cars will take over, and soon,  just as we are in the last days of the petroleum age.
The MUCH larger impending ramification is that this will be a monumental factor in the coming paradigm shift in society, economy and government. Driving is one of the main the main employment occupation of males 30-50 in the USA., then there is the entire auto industry, maintenance to enthusiasts. The existing private ownership model may well cease to exist, as anyone will be able to summon a car when they need one, and the kids these days don't care about ownership as they have grown up with their parents as their UBER and most can't find their way home from around the block as they never gaze past their device to see the world around them.

For sure the AIs are coming, and it will be like nothing we’ve ever seen. While automation has always displaced workers, eliminating some jobs and creating others, I’m afraid what we’re going to see is wholesale destruction of vast sectors of the economy.

It does no good to have everything automated for you if you can’t pay for it. The gap between the haves and have nots will change like a gentle compression curve to a brick wall limiter hard knee.

I don’t see our present economic model continuing to be viable for much longer. Something’s gotta give. The masses will tolerate a lot, but there comes a turning point.

I guess the elites will be in their flying cars above it all. No wonder the forward-thinking among them are looking to colonize other planets. They don’t want to be here when it all hits the fan.

 

[Script]

While automation has always displaced workers, eliminating some jobs and creating others, I’m afraid what we’re going to see is wholesale destruction of vast sectors of the economy.

No and yes, I’d say. Automation in the 1960s/70s boosted the economy, but it also saw the displacement of workers and the introduction of social security/benefits for those who lost their jobs. A displacement of workers due to further automation (AI etc) now will have to see similar political measures. I guess that’s why they are talking about Guaranteed Basic Income and the like. Although this has always struck me as admitting indirectly that they have failed to adjust their social security systems to the changing times.

I’d posit that Guaranteed Basic Income (read up on test runs in Finland, for example) will be successful in the sense that recipients will not stop working if they receive a basic income, but the problem is how states/governments could possibly finance this on a large scale. Either way, I think they should save all this money and rather invest in something more future-oriented such as guaranteed basic retirement money for the current working generations and, more importantly(!), guaranteed advanced education (read: free of tuitions or state-financed, that is no financial burden on young people) for current and all coming generations.

Back to self-driving / flying cars. I’d imagine it to be very much like Business and Economy class in jets. I’d love to see such vehicles equipped with toilets and showers. Commuters would love this. But then again, the very idea of commuting is sort of waning in many areas of the service sector.

 

[Phrazemaster]

I just can't imagine self-driving cars until we discover anti-gravity. The kinds of speeds and thrusts needed for flight surely will cause some of the most horrific accidents imaginable. And no-way will they allow people to fly those things, so we're talking self-flying cars.

Thanks for your thoughts about Guaranteed Basic Income.

 

[JohnRoberts]

For sure the AIs are coming, and it will be like nothing we’ve ever seen. While automation has always displaced workers, eliminating some jobs and creating others, I’m afraid what we’re going to see is wholesale destruction of vast sectors of the economy.

While it won't destroy vast sectors of the economy... the economy will survive and prosper, but many high paying jobs will evaporate (perhaps what you mean?). I have been warning about this for a long time and fear that change may come faster than we expect. Many white collar, suit and tie jobs are already going away. Nobody should feel very secure. If a computer could do your job, beware.

One-on-one service sector jobs should remain. Plumbers and electricians are unlikely to be replaced by AI, while their bosses could be.  : Even repairing gear could fade as more stuff becomes disposable. I often run into stuff that just isn't worth fixing even if i could.

It does no good to have everything automated for you if you can’t pay for it. The gap between the haves and have nots will change like a gentle compression curve to a brick wall limiter hard knee.

I worry this will need to be addressed to maintain civil order. I do not trust government to think beyond using government force to redistribute wealth.  A far better solution (but not trivial) is to energize the small business sector, making it easier for anybody to start their own business and grow their own wealth.

I started businesses last century and this... in some ways it was easier back then, but in other ways now is a golden age, thanks to website/internet technology and CAD software.  I could imagine a future where individuals think of a product, and then farm out the manufacturing to a contract manufacturer. A little like now but with better design assistance services, and smaller production runs thanks to things like 3D printers etc. 

I don’t see our present economic model continuing to be viable for much longer. Something’s gotta give. The masses will tolerate a lot, but there comes a turning point.

There may be a fix within the current economic system but we need to be flexible about what shape that takes. The economic power of big (crony) capitalism will not spread the wealth as well as a million new small businesses. 

I guess the elites will be in their flying cars above it all. No wonder the forward-thinking among them are looking to colonize other planets. They don’t want to be here when it all hits the fan.

I plan to be dead before the sh__ hits the fan, but appreciate the inevitable tide coming in... Perhaps I am overly optimistic, but if we don't fix it ourself the outcome could easily resemble some dystopian science fiction.  Politicians are reactionary and too short term thinking, always looking for easy fixes.

JR

 

[Script]

The kinds of speeds and thrusts needed for flight surely will cause some of the most horrific accidents imaginable.

Agreed. People tend to overestimate their skills -- especially driving skills. Pilots these days are needed for take-off and landing, and supervising/overriding the computer.

Think maglev (magnetic levitation) rather than anti-gravity. The rest is almost like jets today, which also fly 99% of the time controlled by a computer (often a very old Windows version is enough, cos computations are not diffficult in airspace). Of course, maglev vehicles need dedicated tracks, so it's also a question of infrastructure, but we could easily send our robot construction army. And for starters we could opt for hybrid: maglev for long-distance trajectories, self-driving on wheels from exit to private car port. Another problem is massive amounts of energy. Maybe hydrogene? -- End of Sci-Fi.

The Japanese have started smaall-scale substitution experiments in one-on-one customer service areas such as information desk at airport, personell at hotel reception (that is, rather simple service jobs). I too don't see plumbers etc being substituted easily.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Agreed. People tend to overestimate their skills -- especially driving skills. Pilots these days are needed for take-off and landing, and supervising/overriding the computer.

and even pilots these days do not do much real seat of the pants flying... crashes occur when they trust the computers that can be wrong (GIGO).

Think maglev (magnetic levitation) rather than anti-gravity. The rest is almost like jets today, which also fly 99% of the time controlled by a computer (often a very old Windows version is enough, cos computations are not diffficult in airspace). Of course, maglev vehicles need dedicated tracks, so it's also a question of infrastructure, but we could easily send our robot construction army. And for starters we could opt for hybrid: maglev for long-distance trajectories, self-driving on wheels from exit to private car port. Another problem is massive amounts of energy. Maybe hydrogene? -- End of Sci-Fi.

The Japanese have started smaall-scale substitution experiments in one-on-one customer service areas such as information desk at airport, personell at hotel reception (that is, rather simple service jobs). I too don't see plumbers etc being substituted easily.

An interesting possibility for futuristic travel is Elon Musk's hyper-loop... He kind of threw it out in passing as a casual idea, but reportedly is working on it. It is a variant on the old air pressure/vacuum  mail tubes. Not sure how he manages gravity and friction (to the walls of the tube). He sucks out the air inside the tube to reduce wind friction to the moving people carrier.

JR

PS: I think we have discussed this concept before, but there are ways to pick-up and drop off passengers from a moving train without the train stopping that could save a lot of time for commuting by train with local stops.

 

[Script]

hyper-loop...  a variant on the old air pressure/vacuum  mail tubes. Not sure how he manages gravity and friction (to the walls of the tube)

I'd think magnetism (for anti-friction & maybe even thrust?) and/or lube (but rather dirty).

 

[JohnRoberts]

I recall an obscure proposal many years ago for a tunnel that traced out a parabolic curve underground and used gravity for propulsion. This was hugely impractical so just some mental exercise. 

JR