USA power grid

[AnalogPackrat]

What you call "proper" forest management is detrimental to nature. The layer of dead wood and shrubs is essential to wildlife. More than half of the insect species living in that layer are on the point of extermination...

I'm guessing you've never spent any significant time in the forests of North America, particularly in the western parts which see less rainfall than the east. Isolated and more regular fires of lower intensity are how forests in drier areas of North America evolved long before humans arrived here. Large thunderstorms with lightning are common in the (typically drier) summer months and fires were ignited this way by nature.

Heavy underbrush from decades of (human) fire suppression efforts result in high intensity fires that are more likely to crown and destroy huge areas, virtually sterilizing them until seeds blow in and the long recovery begins. If you've been to places in the cascades where volcanoes have erupted (Lassen, Mt. St. Helens, etc.) you can see similar, slow recovery of flora and fauna after sterilization of former forests.

Clear cut logging that leaves heavy slash is also problematic because having no canopy to shade, cool, and trap moisture means the dead fuel is a tinderbox waiting to erupt. But removing slash is expensive, damages what flora and fauna remain after logging, and can exacerbate erosion. Selective harvesting mitigates some of these issues, but is less efficient (costs more, uses more fuel per acre harvested, etc.).

If you like wood furniture, wood trim and accoutrements in your home, wooden musical instruments, wooden structural components of buildings you inhabit/utilize, paper products, etc. then you are also part of the "problem."

 

[AnalogPackrat]

I understand the points made here in the VEER <g>. My original reason for this thread was to discuss the Macro issues...not the Micro (ice storms, fires, etc.) How robust it the grid? I recall decades ago that the entire NE part of the USA went dark due to cascading failures.

Bri

I can relate my experience with three power companies over my 57 years. In my home state (and as of 2021 current state of residence) power outages are most commonly caused by freezing rain in winter and thunderstorms/wind in warmer months. Hurricanes, of course, can cause much bigger problems every few years.

As a kid I remember a couple of 1-2 day outages during ice storms and a few shorter ones due to other bad weather (strong thunderstorms or derecho type fronts).

My recent experience is that outages are typically short (a few hours to a day) unless there's a big freezing rain event. Infrastructure here is well maintained and repairs are performed quickly. In our 22 months living here we have had nothing more than lights blinking for a few seconds during a few particularly windy/stormy times at our home. We get a lot of lightning in the summer, had freezing rain Jan 2022, and a lot of wind. There have been short outages in nearby areas.

I contrast this with my California experience. First two years in Chico we had a couple of brief outages due to windy storms. Then 5 years in Sunnyvale were similar except for one longer one than went for a day or two.

Then 22 years in the Santa Cruz mountains (rugged terrain, heavily forested, 2200' elevation) where winter storm (high wind) outages were common and some lasted for 3-6 days. The last several years we were there the outages were more frequent in winter even with milder storms. And the summertime safety shutoffs were literally a weekly occurrence the last two years. Before they could re-energize circuits that werw purposefully shut down, every foot of above ground line was inspected by ground crews and helicopter flyovers. This usually took 1-2 days after the precipitating event had ended. There were also rolling blackouts in summer when high pressure systems would stall over the state and temperatures increased. We've already discussed the fires started by poorly maintained infrastructure.

It seems to me that parts of the US grid are in poor condition while other parts are very good to excellent. How the whole thing is going to behave if some larger parts fail is a good question. I wish I'd kept in touch with a couple of college friends who specialized in power engineering (one did his MS on something related to large scale grid monitoring/control c.1990). Solar flares or an EMP attack could prove catastrophic.

 

[cyrano]

so forest management is more detrimental to nature than out of control wildfires?

Yes.

? The purpose of controlled burns and forest management is not to eliminate all dead wood and undergrowth, just to keep it below a dangerous tipping point, where out of control wildfires can occur.

Eliminating all dead wood is what's usually done. People like it clean.

The statistic sounds a little brown...?

I could give you a dozen links for it, but you still wouldn't believe it. Here's just one from Reuters that explains the problem:

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-ENVIRONMENT/INSECT-APOCALYPSE/egpbykdxjvq/
Europe has made that error and we're slowly starting to reverse actions from the past.

National Geographic on burns.. controlled burns

I guess Nat Geo doesn't love insects.

Nat Geo isn't science, unfortunately. It's TV. Some of their stuff is good, most of it is entertainment.

 

[cyrano]

There have been forest fires ever since there have been trees. If forest management is not done, Mother Nature will do it for you. I live in a heavily forested area of Canada. There used to be prescribed burns to protect against fires or insects. That stopped due to environmental group pressure. A number of years ago (10?) there was an extremely large area of trees killed by pine beetles. The trees still stood but were dead and very dry. They logged a lot of those dead trees but some caught on fire and burned fiercely. One morning when I still worked, it was light at 7:30 in the morning but at 9:30 AM it was as dark as any winter night I have ever seen due to the smoke. That lasted for a few hours until the wind changed direction. I am not sure if you are aware of how large the forested areas of Canada are. There are historical findings that indicate there were very large forest fires before there were people here. There are also stories that the native people used to set fires to clear land and remove undergrowth. With the undergrowth removed and new growth established there is plenty of food for wildlife. Having said all that, too much logging and exporting of raw logs to other countries can and has reduced the amount of product in some areas. There are a number of mills that have closed. Contrary to some opinions, the trees do grow back. There are tree planting crews that plant millions of seedlings every year. There are areas that have been cut 2 or 3 times over a few generations.

I am very well aware about the situation in Canada, thank you.

It takes years to reverse the policy. And it's hard to explain to the average person you need to cut down these magnificent trees in some cases.

Beech forests, fi have NO undergrowth because they've been planted for the wood. Normally, beech is a tree you only find in mixed forests and it doesn't harm the undergrowth. In man-made beech forests you'll find a thick layer of very dry leaves. Perfect to start a fire because they last for years. Fagus isn't local, so local organisms do not compost it's leaves and that kills the undergrowth. It leads to fire hazard.

The solution in this case, is to cut down all beeches and replant with multiple species.

Some trees even depend on fire for their reproduction. There isn't one solution for every case. And that's the crux: every forest is different. Applying "national" solutions will lead to disaster in some cases.

To prevent naturally occurring fires to grow to unmanageable proportions, it's usually enough to divide forest by fire-lanes. Of course, that depends on the kind of forest you're dealing with. If it's a pine forest in a mountaneous area, it probably won't work. Our forests are much smaller. In Canada's forests, this solution might not work, because of their size, but forests like that can be mostly left alone.

California already is trying out the better way to "manage" forests; with herds of goats. Goats do not harm insect populations, nor fungi. And both of these are essential to avoid pine beetles to become a pest.

 

[user 37518]

Well, there you have it, John. It doesn't matter what you do, it always ends up in catastrophe; be it the climate, the bugs, the forests, the poles, etc... If you burn up the wood, don't burn up the wood! but if you don't burn up the wood, burn up the damn wood, would ya?

 

[cyrano]

I understand the points made here in the VEER <g>. My original reason for this thread was to discuss the Macro issues...not the Micro (ice storms, fires, etc.) How robust it the grid? I recall decades ago that the entire NE part of the USA went dark due to cascading failures.

Our grid is very dependable. But a few days ago, a HV switch exploded, stopping supply to a large part of Antwerp's harbour industry for 24 hours. It got a comment "that we're almost on the level of a 3rd world country." A bit over the top, as it was the first problem in almost 25 years. That switch was going to be replaced in a few months, because of it's age. Of course, in a densely populated country it's a bit easier to be reliable. The entire grid consists of underground cabling, except for high voltage lines.

 

[cyrano]

Thank you. Now we finally get to see what you look like...

 

[AnalogPackrat]

Thank you. Now we finally get to see what you look like...

It's what many of us look like after reading some of your posts. It's obvious you haven't spent any time living in or adjacent to any North American forest that is prone to wildfire. Most western NA forests are not managed monocultures. Some are, but most regenerate into something approaching a native forest, though with less diversity of age/size until centuries pass.

Planted monoculture (be it beech, loblolly pine, or anything else) is not going to produce a natural ecosystem. But those plantations are necessary to provide wood and paper resources for all of the city and suburban folk. The conflation of "forest" with "plantation" is laughable.

 

[sodderboy]

That NE blackout was something. Like living out in the forest.
Sandy had us down for two weeks because of the destruction on all levels. And then when they staggered it back-up all the older “pole pigs” (love that!) popped. Brought out the best in folks around here.
In the cities the grid is quite robust, and gets weaker as population thins. After Sandy the tree clearing has been much better.
We have been removing quiescent power devices to lower home consumption, and we are on the low consumption side of the local average. The TV/stereo system has a 1U bank of switches. You pay for all that remote convenience.
I test the Honda genny every 4 months, installed during Sandy. July is carb check time.
I just don’t see the utilities as proactive entities.
Mike

 

[user 37518]

Thank you. Now we finally get to see what you look like...

Absolutely, I am Stanley from the Office.

 

[crazydoc]

My electric cooperative power in this rural area goes out at least once a month, usually weather related and just for a few seconds, enough to have to reset clocks and devices. Not PG&E, but uses their lines over the mountains, so it goes out frequently with wildfires and winter storms, as does the phone and internet when it burns around the towers. Once in awhile it's out for an hour or so - no big deal. It's been out for 6-8 hours every year or two, and once out for 2 days from a severe wind storm. I bought 2 generators 17 years ago when we moved here - one for the house and one for the well (on a remote service - so 2 monthly base service charges that started at $25 and now $50 each).

I used to empty the gas each spring to avoid carburetor gummup, but now just add a stabilizer to the gas - so far, so good.

 

[Rusan]

It seems that the grid is not all that stable. I've read multiple articles in recent years regarding that topic. I am aware of the NERC, SPP, etc. Yet for the years I've studied this I am still somewhat uneasy about the robustness of the interconnected grid.

20-ish years ago, I was driving from Okla City to Little Rock for a studio project. Somewhere in Ark. I was amazed by a HUGE trio of metal towers with many lines crossing overhead on I-40. My friend in Little Rock told me those were the outgoing lines from a nuclear power plant. On my return trip, I wondered what would happen if a major tornado passed through those lines.

I live close enough to that nuclear power plant to see the steam plume from the cooling tower. It has two 900 MW reactors, with each undergoing a scheduled 2 or 3 month outage every few years. So evidently, there's enough reserve in the grid here to accommodate the lengthy, periodic shutdown of one reactor, although they're done at a time of the year when electricity consumption is at its lowest. But, a tornado taking down those 765 kV lines you saw would probably put a big enough dent in the grid that a lot of people would be without electricity for an extended period. Never thought of that, not to mention the fact that this is western Arkansas, where tornadoes are only slightly less common than trees...

For several years, the company that operates the plant has been pushing the installation of remote-control devices on residential air conditioning units, that allow them to intermittently cycle your AC during periods of peak electrical demand, in order to reduce stress on the grid. They've also subsidized the cost of replacing fluorescent and HID lighting with LEDs in commerical and industrial buildings, again, to reduce stress on the power grid.

Yet, they plan to permanently close the 1800 MW coal-fired plant south of Little Rock by 2028, with no currently stated plans to replace it with another type of production. We do have several hydroelectric dams across the northern half of the state, but that production is comparatively very small and also intermittent in operation. I could only see it effecting a decrease in reliability, due to it removing about 1/5 of the state's total electrical production from the grid when the coal plant closes. Add to that the inevitable increase in the number of electric cars further burdening the grid, and it doesn't look good. Of course, major utilities are probably NOT gonna lose any money if they can help it, and people not being able to consume electricity would mean just that, so they've probably got some kind of yet-undisclosed plan simmering right now.

A much scarier scenario is a geomagnetic storm on the magnitude of the Carrington Event. Not only would it wreak havoc on the power grid worldwide, but everything we've become accustomed to in our modern lives. Welcome to the Stone Age, overnight.

 

[ruffrecords]

I seem to remember James Burke touched on the vulnerability of societies dependence on certain technologies and the consequences thereof way back in the 70s.

Cheers

Ian

 

[iomegaman]

James Burkes series "Connections" had a huge influence on me, still an amazing series...

 

[pucho812]

Second and third outages of the summer this evening. The second one was less than a minute and power came on. It lasted about a minute before it went off again. Been 10 minutes and now power.

California 6th largest economy in the world and they can’t keep the lights on

Update: they blow the transformer at the grid for my area of the grid. This will be a while.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Second and third outages of the summer this evening. The second one was less than a minute and power came on. It lasted about a minute before it went off again. Been 10 minutes and now power.

California 6th largest economy in the world and they can’t keep the lights on

Update: they blow the transformer at the grid for my area of the grid. This will be a while.

Did they blow the transformer or just the fuse? When the fuse on a pole transformer blows it literally explodes sounding like a gun shot. Replacing the complete transformer will be a much larger job.

JR

 

[fazer]

Had a transformer blow at the farm when I was renting it out back in 2019. So IREA came out to fix and it took about 2 hrs to replace and 4 hours to get to it.

 

[pucho812]

Did they blow the transformer or just the fuse? When the fuse on a pole transformer blows it literally explodes sounding like a gun shot. Replacing the complete transformer will be a much larger job.

JR

There was a big boom, a fire, and smoke coming from the manhole covers. Power was out all evening. So I assume it wasn’t just a fuse.

 

[JohnRoberts]

speaking of mains power, I just read an article about a handful of small companies trying to break into the power generation business using new technology. A couple are talking about the compact fission reactors. These are actually mature technology as used on nuclear submarines and large navy vessels for several decades. One of the new companies is already booking promised future energy sales using fusion technology.

The business writer was better informed talking about the use of SPACs (wall street gimmickry) to raise capital. The writers description of fusion power was amusing. He stated that fission power comes from atoms splitting, and fusion energy comes from hydrogen and helium atoms combining together. Actually the hydrogen atoms combine with each other to make helium... so close.

I am not a fam of SPACs and the business model for some of these small generation plays appear to be using existing power company infrastructure to sell power back to them. I guess in some states with laws that accommodate that, their business model may work.

JR

 

[sodderboy]

That Connections series is great, thanks for mentioning it!
Mike