Brexit

[Matt Nolan]

All this talk of calories and hormones is making me hungry ;-)

I would recommend the active participants in this part of the thread check out the work of Professor Robert Lustig, if they don't already know of it.

 

[ruffrecords]

Looks like the Italians have followed us Brits whilst the Austrians have rejected the far right.

Cheers

Ian

 

[micaddict]

The latter is surprising (or is it?) as they were among the first of the postwar European democracies to "embrace" it. Kurt Waldheim anyone? Not to mention Jörg Haider.
Seems they're  ahead of the curve, which might mean there's still hope ...

 

[living sounds]

The latter is surprising (or is it?) as they were among the first of the postwar European democracies to "embrace" it. Kurt Waldheim anyone? Not to mention Jörg Haider.
Seems they're  ahead of the curve, which might mean there's still hope ...

It was close though. If people were actually well-informed and hadn't stayed home in large numbers neither Trump nor Brexit would have happened. This time they knew it was important to get out and vote.

Italy is a different picture, there are populist left-wing challengers to the current mainstream government. They already had their Trump - like head of state (Berlusconi) and are much further down the rabbit-hole...

 

[Banzai]

Problems start when we start referring to fascists as 'populists', as the mainstream media is doing now. Normalising extremes is a very dangerous game, and I find it really hard to believe it's not being done on purpose.

 

[DaveP]

There may be people like Marine Le Pen who are trying to get on the "Populist" bandwagon, true enough, but this wave of public sentiment should really be called the Disenfranchised Retaliation.

I think in most western countries the ruling classes and their media counterparts have been following an agenda of globalisation and social engineering at a rate that has been far too fast for the lower classes of society to cope with.  They have finally woken up to the fact that they have a collective voice and they are starting to use it.

This is exemplified in the UK:  The traditional party of the working class used to be the Labour party, but over the last 25 years they have moved to what might be called a  "Liberal" agenda which is also known as "Identity Politics".  People who have always looked to the Labour Party for jobs and the manufacturing industry, have now found that their party is occupied with other things, so they have been voting UKIP instead, this does not mean that they became fascists or that they even know what that term means.

DaveP

 

[JohnRoberts]

It's been a bad year for pollsters.

Renzi went all in, and lost.

The world keeps getting smaller and smaller.

JR

 

[living sounds]

Problems start when we start referring to fascists as 'populists', as the mainstream media is doing now. Normalising extremes is a very dangerous game, and I find it really hard to believe it's not being done on purpose.

Yes. And "Alt-Right" is a euphemistic term for racists and neo-Nazis.

 

[living sounds]

I think in most western countries the ruling classes and their media counterparts have been following an agenda of globalisation and social engineering at a rate that has been far to fast for the lower classes of society to cope with.  They have finally woken up to the fact that they have a collective voice and they are starting to use it.

This is exemplified in the UK:  The traditional party of the working class used to be the Labour party, but over the last 25 years they have moved to what might be called a  "Liberal" agenda which is also known as "Identity Politics".  People who have always looked to the Labour Party for jobs and the manufacturing industry, have now found that their party is occupied with other things, so they have been voting UKIP instead, this does not mean that they became fascists or that they even know what that term means.

DaveP

Inequality is the problem.  The whole neo-liberal agenda of the past 40 years with lower taxes for the rich, deregulation,  cuts in social services, corporate welfare, lack of social mobility etc.

The left didn't suceed in fighting back against this agenda. The fall of communism didn't help either.

Wedge issues like religion, gay rights, abortion etc. have been used sucessfully in many countries in the 80s and 90s to the 00s, but  I don't think "social engineering" is the issue today. People overall don't care as much about these things anymore. Their dissillusionment about economic participation on the other hand is very real.

So primal circuits that evolution has favoured to kick in whenever resources appear to be scarce get fired up. And xenophobia raises its ugly head. And authoritarianism. It's human nature. That's why fighting inequality must be a core principal of every democratic state. We failed to do it, and now it might be too late.

 

[Banzai]

... so they have been voting UKIP instead, this does not mean that they became fascists or that they even know what that term means.

DaveP

Of course it does. Assuming people are stupid is exactly why the pollsters keep getting it wrong.

I don't have a problem with people hating foreigners or thinking their 2% muslim population is the cause of all their problems. What I have a problem with is portraying this as a popular sentiment and what the majority of the people want: if you count all registered voters, and then all voters who actually vote, in most countries you end up at a number of close to 20% of the general population needed to win a general election (in the US it's closer to 10-15%).

The U.K. isn't any different:
46 million registered voters
60-65% turnout is 30 million = 15 million votes needed for a win = 23% of general population

With these numbers, it's impossible to speak of populism, the disenfranchised, or a silent majority in relation to any political party. The silent disenfranchised majority 1) doesn't vote and 2) probably couldn't care less about politics to begin with.

 

[mattiasNYC]

Inequality is the problem.  The whole neo-liberal agenda of the past 40 years with lower taxes for the rich, deregulation,  cuts in social services, corporate welfare, lack of social mobility etc.

The left didn't suceed in fighting back against this agenda. The fall of communism didn't help either.

I agree.

Wedge issues like religion, gay rights, abortion etc. have been used sucessfully in many countries in the 80s and 90s to the 00s, but  I don't think "social engineering" is the issue today. People overall don't care as much about these things anymore. Their dissillusionment about economic participation on the other hand is very real.

So primal circuits that evolution has favoured to kick in whenever resources appear to be scarce get fired up. And xenophobia raises its ugly head. And authoritarianism. It's human nature. That's why fighting inequality must be a core principal of every democratic state. We failed to do it, and now it might be too late.

Well, I mostly agree I think, except that I think that scape-goating is still alive and well, so the "wedge issues" still play somewhat of a role in the sense that people may identify with a candidate that uses those wedge issues to create an image. So it's maybe not so much the issues themselves, even if the voter agrees with the stance of the politician, as it is the "image" of the politician. The politician represents what the voter stands for in general, hence the vote.... I think...

 

[fazer]

What is so hard about using the words as Dave suggest, Disenfranchised Retaliation.  I get mad when anyone calls me a Nazi or racist.  I don't run into this until someone wants to win an argument with a few quick charged words. 

Lets see where it goes to from here.  In America the wheel is designed to move slow in Government.    In 2 years the same people will vote out anything they disapprove.  I wrote a song a few years ago titled, " If Your In Your Out" .  Its about this Disenfranchised Retaliation in the form of making change by voting against people that seem to favor their own needs over the peoples needs.  I'll be doing that again if I'm Disenfranchised.   

As I've said before,  the real villain in America are the 2 parties in the country that pit democrats and republicans against each other rather that the parties that have played us like a fiddle.  The Disenfranchise voted against both parties.

Living sounds - I copied your New Years resolution the beginning of this year to do more music and less political banter.  Its hard to resist the banter but writing a song is a better use of our time.  It may be child like but it beats anger and fear.  Just write it in a song.  When I do that I find the ranting of a child's fear come out and I move on.

 

[DaveP]

Of course it does. Assuming people are stupid is exactly why the pollsters keep getting it wrong.

I don't think they are stupid, they are just more interested in other things than politics.  I could rely on them to tell me about every celebrity show on TV and run rings around me on an I phone and texting, but I don't expect them to know that it stems from the victorious Roman legions bringing home bundles of reeds and firewood (fascio).  Or that it came to be used for trade guilds with left wing politics.  Or that Mussolini's government was socialist in character.

Now it has connotations  of dictatorship, alt right, neo Nazis and the like.  The fact that people on a very full small island have decided they don't want anymore immigration, does not turn them into fascists or Nazis.

DaveP

 

[Banzai]

Now it has connotations  of dictatorship, alt right, neo Nazis and the like.  The fact that people on a very full small island have decided they don't want anymore immigration, does not turn them into fascists or Nazis.

DaveP

I'm glad you said that, because they didn't: They voted on whether or not they wanted to stay in the EU, not on immigration! The 'fascist' leaning parties hijacked the vote into a rejection of immigrants and Islam. 15% of the U.K. economy wiped out because clearly, many had no idea what they were voting for...

But honestly, how can someone disenfranchised vote for a billionaire/city boy who has never experienced what it's like to be poor, on the dole, or living day to day without health insurance? Compare a real populist like Lula (uneducated, poor, and son of an alcoholic) to circus clowns like Farage and Trump... then you'll see my point.

 

[Banzai]

What is so hard about using the words as Dave suggest, Disenfranchised Retaliation.  I get mad when anyone calls me a Nazi or racist.  I don't run into this until someone wants to win an argument with a few quick charged words.

The Freedom Party in Austria was started by a Nazi, and you're advocating we should call their voters 'disenfranchised'? Brits and Amercians vote for parties who want to ban Islam and throw out immigrants, and you're advocating we should feel sorry for them because they're 'disenfranchised'? Do you not see how you're normalizing the scapegoating of minorities, and enabling scumbags to enter mainstream politics by refusing to call them what they are?

It's exactly the same thing as white people calling themselves expats, but everyone else is an immigrant... It's one dishonest cop-out after another.

 

[DaveP]

The Freedom Party in Austria was started by a Nazi, and you're advocating we should call their voters 'disenfranchised'? Brits and Amercians vote for parties who want to ban Islam and throw out immigrants, and you're advocating we should feel sorry for them because they're 'disenfranchised'? Do you not see how you're normalizing the scapegoating of minorities, and enabling scumbags to enter mainstream politics by refusing to call them what they are?

You seem to be confusing several countries here and making their motives all the same.
My understanding is that the far right in Austria gained a little from the recent flood of immigrants from the middle east, that issue seems to be over now, as are the right's aspirations.

The USA situation fits the disenfranchised retaliation description better because of the rust belt, export of jobs etc and to an extent Mexican narcotics.

The UK is different again, and my understanding is that for the Brexit people the EU meant freedom of movement = more immigration, probably Poles more than any other.  There was also the issue of not being able to control our borders and the sovereignty of Parliament etc.

[quote}It's exactly the same thing as white people calling themselves expats, but everyone else is an immigrant... It's one dishonest cop-out after another.[/quote]

As an expat myself I think you have misunderstood the difference between us and immigrants.  Immigrants are looking for work and a safe place to live.  Expats have independent income, in many cases a UK pension, or have bought a house outright in France, Italy, Germany or Spain.  To my surprise we were welcomed because we come with our own money and pay for our own health care and pay our local community tax, we also renovate their run-down houses and help bring deserted villages back to life.

It is a financial issue, not a racial issue as you are implying.

DaveP

 

[fazer]

+1 for Dave P.   

America has illegal immigrants  not legal immigrants.  The Obama administration prefers undocumented immigrants rather than illegal for self serving purposes. ( To create votes for the democrats. )  The republicans look the other way (to favor business interest. ) 

When did the term illegal become a racist/nazi term.    The issue here is to punish the businesses from hiring "Illegal immigrants ",  So real immigrants that have gone through legal immigration can entry this country. 

It is a problem in America and needs to be handled with immigration policy that is already in place in America.

 

[ruffrecords]

That's why fighting inequality must be a core principal of every democratic state. We failed to do it, and now it might be too late.

Except the politics of globalisation has actually created more inequality.

Cheers

ian

 

[dmp]

Except the politics of globalisation has actually created more inequality.

It depends on how you look at it. In the first world, the inequality from the very rich to the middle class has increased.
But the wealth of the third world has increased, such that 1st world - 3rd world inequality has decreased.
The famous elephant plot attached.
The people driving the "populist" uprising in US / UK - because they've lost their manufacturing / low skill jobs to immigrants or off shoring  - are in the dip near the right side of the plot.
A summary from wikipedia (the ecomomic inequality page is a good starter for this subject)

"Economist Branko Milanovic analyzed global income inequality, comparing 1988 and 2008. His analysis indicated that the global top 1% and the middle classes of the emerging economies (e.g., China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and Egypt) were the main winners of globalization during that time. The real (inflation adjusted) income of the global top 1% increased approximately 60%, while the middle classes of the emerging economies (those around the 50th percentile of the global income distribution in 1988) rose 70-80%. On the other hand, those in the middle class of the developed world (those in the 75th to 90th percentile in 1988, such as the American middle class) experienced little real income gains. The richest 1% contains 60 million persons globally, including 30 million Americans (i.e., the top 12% of Americans by income were in the global top 1% in 2008)"

 

[Banzai]

You seem to be confusing several countries here and making their motives all the same.

The UK is different again, and my understanding is that for the Brexit people the EU meant freedom of movement = more immigration, probably Poles more than any other.  There was also the issue of not being able to control our borders and the sovereignty of Parliament etc.

The U.K. shutting its borders and restricting free-movement of people and goods was never on the table. It would kill off your economy overnight.

I'm also not the one confusing anything; Trump won, they called it America's Brexit. The Austrian kook was about to win, they called him the Austrian Trump. All of it's being put together as a populist movement rejecting something or another.

As an expat myself I think you have misunderstood the difference between us and immigrants.  Immigrants are looking for work and a safe place to live.  Expats have independent income, in many cases a UK pension, or have bought a house outright in France, Italy, Germany or Spain.  To my surprise we were welcomed because we come with our own money and pay for our own health care and pay our local community tax, we also renovate their run-down houses and help bring deserted villages back to life.

It is a financial issue, not a racial issue as you are implying.

Dear Dave, you are an immigrant. Please just look up the word in a dictionary

For good measure, here's the first hit on Google: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2015/mar/13/white-people-expats-immigrants-migration