Complete denuclearization of NK *****ula

[JohnRoberts]

However, only the last two rockets were clearly meant as a message to the US. There were several others before that. Anyway, Japan had refrained from using the Iron Dome on the second of those last two missiles -- once the trajectory was clear. I wonder why (meaning, I don't). As much as I'd like to see a reunified Korea, if they really want it, I'd say it could just as easily be a win-win even without reunification.

Re-unification is an obvious way to deal with the abject poverty in the north and provide a sustainable future for Un. It would be a huge sacrifice for South Korea to make, and Un would rather control the entire peninsula than share power with a democracy. So not a likely path.

I am certainly open to hearing alternate solutions. 

To be honest, I really don't feel threatened by that at all.

A rational response but Un (likely) wants to scare people. I can't know his mind, but that is a fair guess.

###
I wouldn't really call that a history book proper -

and I didn't... I called it "pop" history...

- as little as I'd call Michael Moore's productions research in politology and sociology.

that's a harsh comparison... I would not even try to name MM's work product.

Still maybe a good book for everyone interested in the official US (and as of today among US citizens still slightly majority-held) justification for dropping the bombs.

It can be interesting to second guess historical decisions, that was not an easy one.

The majority of US citizens don't think about WWII and/or the pacific campaign. The few that do, get their history from movies, that are even less comprehensive than a popular history book.  Many of the veterans who returned from fighting in the pacific refused to talk with their family about the horrors that they saw and survived. There have been a small hand full of historical movies that offer a balanced presentation, but the vast majority are Hollywood fluff. 

History is written by the winners so no doubt with some national bias. I do not consider O'reilly a historian (even if he does), but Dugard, his coauthor seems credible. 

The opposite of that book is President Obama visiting and holding a speech in Hiroshima in 2016.

yes, his infamous apology tour.... Glad that it made you feel better. 

There are still sensitive hot topics unresolved between Japan and neighbors (like Korea). I won't go there either.

Paired with the Emperor's visit to the Phillippines the same year and his private apology to the Phillippine King for war atrocities committed by the Japanese Imperial Army. Both incidences weigh heavy in my books today, also because they preceed the current events between NK and SK.

As,  I said before I do not care to re-litigate WWII. I had one uncle fight in it (europe) and he survived intact (now RIP).

I hope we are all aware enough about the horror of WWII to avoid WWIII.

JR

 

[Script]

Unlikely that Kim would survive a reunification politically (look at the former two Germany's), unless Kim left the stage on his own account -- which is also rather unlikely, I assume. However, if he would, just imagine for a second, it could earn him the next Peace Nobel Prize. Maybe he is crazy after all I must add though that I find articles about the NK First Lady's latest fashion choice pretty negligible.

Altenate solution: Maybe a spin on the Egyptian model. Keep the dictator in place but on very tight economic leashes (China & US). Meanwhile alleviate poverty for all in NK and help develop a new 'bourgeoise' class in the country, a class that will press for change (the sooner the better) and even call out revolution in future, as the more affluent did in Egypt. But this might not work in NK(?) cos Mubarak was kept (among other reasons) to successfully suppress radical Islam in Egypt. Nothing like that in NK, as far as I know (maybe his innocent brother? What do we really know?). Anyway, what does NK have to offer -- 25M 'starved' consumers, I guess...

As,  I said before I do not care to re-litigate WWII. I had one uncle fight in it (europe) and he survived intact (now RIP).

Yeah, I now what you mean. My Dad fought in the underground against German occupation in WWII and he too never spoke much about it -- actually never, apart from mentioning that he fought. But he left a huge pile of notes and scribbles, so I have a pretty detailed impression of it.

yes, his infamous apology tour.... Glad that it made you feel better. 

Well, Obama's visit and speech in Hiroshima didn't make me feel much different personally, but it made me somewhat happy for the Japanese, especially for the few still living survivors and their families. I think that was a very humane and overdue gesture, although no apology from his mouth. He simply was the right guy for such kind of job. His visit not only improved the public image of America in Japan a lot, it also tightened the existing close relationship between Japan and the US even further (quite handy, cos important WRT China and now wrt NK).

There are still sensitive hot topics unresolved between Japan and neighbors (like Korea).

Yeah, the Japanese have a history of not being very good at that. Would you believe, the silliest thing I have ever heard from someone here when I asked about Japanese--Chinese relation was: "Hmm, somehow the Chinese don't seem to like us. Neither do the Koreans. I think they are OK" That was some years ago though.

Anyway, in 2015, at a war dead memorial stone in Seoul, former Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama imitated the 1970 apologetic Warsaw Kniefall (genuflection) by then German Chancellor Willy Brandt. Just like Brandt's Kniefall eased tension between East and West (and also changed Germany's relation to Israel) -- Hatoyama's genuflection in 2015 too has improved relations between Japan and SK a lot. Also, there have been recent meetings between Japan's Abe and China's Xi and others. It seems that sometimes 'small gestures' go a long way.

All I want to say is that there are exciting things happening as of late, now that the WWII generation has almost completely passed away. I am realist enough but want to be as optimistic as possible. Trump cancelling the meeting with Kim and now re-scheduling it behind curtains clearly is part of the 'deal' game. I just hope Trump can be (and comes across) more sensitive when it really counts.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Unlikely that Kim would survive a reunification politically (look at the former two Germany's), unless Kim left the stage on his own account -- which is also rather unlikely, I assume. However, if he would, just imagine for a second, it could earn him the next Peace Nobel Prize. Maybe he is crazy after all I must add though that I find articles about the NK First Lady's latest fashion choice pretty negligible.

I do not think Un is crazy or stupid...

Altenate solution: Maybe a spin on the Egyptian model. Keep the dictator in place but on very tight economic leashes (China & US). Meanwhile alleviate poverty for all in NK and help develop a new 'bourgeoise' class in the country, a class that will press for change (the sooner the better) and even call out revolution in future, as the more affluent did in Egypt. But this might not work in NK(?) cos Mubarak was kept (among other reasons) to successfully suppress radical Islam in Egypt. Nothing like that in NK, as far as I know (maybe his innocent brother? What do we really know?). Anyway, what does NK have to offer -- 25M 'starved' consumers, I guess...

Egypt was kind of a special case where most of the Egyptian air force military were US trained and had good relationship with the US. The military dictatorship was very comfortable working with the US. The brotherhood was elected by simple democracy but would have further inflamed the region.  It is hard to be very comfortable about Egypt, just more comfortable than what it was on a path to  become.

No radical islam in NK but Un is willing to sell weapons and materials to anybody with the cash. Both China and Russia have their own radical islam situations to worry about.

Yeah, I now what you mean. My Dad fought in the underground against German occupation in WWII and he too never spoke much about it -- actually never, apart from mentioning that he fought. But he left a huge pile of notes and scribbles, so I have a pretty detailed impression of it.
Well, Obama's visit and speech in Hiroshima didn't make me feel much different personally, but it made me somewhat happy for the Japanese, especially for the few still living survivors and their families. I think that was a very humane and overdue gesture, although no apology from his mouth. He simply was the right guy for such kind of job. His visit not only improved the public image of America in Japan a lot, it also tightened the existing close relationship between Japan and the US even further (quite handy, cos important WRT China and now wrt NK).
Yeah, the Japanese have a history of not being very good at that. Would you believe, the silliest thing I have ever heard from someone here when I asked about Japanese--Chinese relation was: "Hmm, somehow the Chinese don't seem to like us. Neither do the Koreans. I think they are OK" That was some years ago though.

those who don't know history's mistakes are doomed to repeat them... a little like circuit design.  ;D

Anyway, in 2015, at a war dead memorial stone in Seoul, former Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama imitated the 1970 apologetic Warsaw Kniefall (genuflection) by then German Chancellor Willy Brandt. Just like Brandt's Kniefall eased tension between East and West (and also changed Germany's relation to Israel) -- Hatoyama's genuflection in 2015 too has improved relations between Japan and SK a lot. Also, there have been recent meetings between Japan's Abe and China's Xi and others. It seems that sometimes 'small gestures' go a long way.

Don't ignore the horse trading going on behind closed doors. In my estimation a lot of the current trade wrestling between us and China, is really about securing their support to manage NK. Without China, NK would fall overnight, but China will not allow that either because they don't want millions of NK migrants flooding their border.

All I want to say is that there are exciting things happening as of late, now that the WWII generation has almost completely passed away. I am realist enough but want to be as optimistic as possible. Trump cancelling the meeting with Kim and now re-scheduling it behind curtains clearly is part of the 'deal' game. I just hope Trump can be (and comes across) more sensitive when it really counts.

Ignore the Kabuki theater, any real deals will be made before they sit down. The best I can hope for is some warming between the Koreas  and regional neighbors, and an agreement to hold future talks. Un can not afford to give up his "stay in power card",  and China kind of likes the instability he causes taking the international focus off their adventurism and military expansion in the Pacific.

The best I can wish for is small incremental changes moving them in the right direction, with the option to rinse and repeat.  8)

JR

 

[Script]

...Un is willing to sell weapons and materials to anybody with the cash.

I tend to think that should it come to light that Kim sells or has ever sold any AB weapons to whoever, NK will be no longer. As you say, Kim not stupid. And even China would disapprove.

Ignore the Kabuki theater, any real deals will be made before they sit down.

Yeah, mostly ignore. Former NK intelligence guy on his way to the US right now, I read. (Have you ever watched real Kabuki?)

China kind of likes the instability he causes taking the international focus off their adventurism and military expansion in the Pacific.

Have read that claim several times over the last couple of years in news etc, but I don't really buy into the idea of China wanting to expand -- and least with brute military force. They have a much stronger weapon now called economy

 

[desol]

I totally think China is in the business of expanding. Look at Tibet! I indeed wonder how much of the NK shenanigans/niceties towards the US, are in respect to the China motive. Remember that meeting not so long ago? Could be wrong...

 

[JohnRoberts]

I tend to think that should it come to light that Kim sells or has ever sold any AB weapons to whoever, NK will be no longer. As you say, Kim not stupid. And even China would disapprove.

I googled AB weapons and not sure I follow, but NK has literally been caught and implicated in selling technology and materials to bad actors.

Yeah, mostly ignore. Former NK intelligence guy on his way to the US right now, I read. (Have you ever watched real Kabuki?)

I don't watch Kabuki, but i thought it would be a cute cultural reference in this context.  8)

Have read that claim several times over the last couple of years in news etc, but I don't really buy into the idea of China wanting to expand -- and least with brute military force. They have a much stronger weapon now called economy

They have been building out bases on atolls in the south china sea. China just landed long range bombers (H-6K) on air base in south china sea.  There are a handful of disputed atolls and reefs in the region. China is clearly projecting military force into the vacuum we left. India is also expanding their naval presence in the Pacific, but not like China. The world is large and we are spread a little thin since the sequester. There has been a recent string of (US) naval accidents due to inadequate training, and poor management (some brass have been demoted/fired). 

JR

 

[Script]

I googled AB weapons and not sure I follow

Sorry.
A = atomic
B = biological
C = conventional

NK has literally been caught and implicated in selling technology and materials to bad actors

I must have missed that one. Could you please point me to it? Was it gas to Syria? ...(google google)... OK, I was wrong. Apparently he sold gas to Syria.

But then again, many countries, including our Western democracies (I don't know about the US but certainly some European countries) sell weapons (directly or indirectly) as well as parts that can be used to construct weapons to all sorts of people around the world who shouldn't really have them...

I don't want to defend or accuse anyone here and I know this sounds highly cynically, but what I mean is this: Who are we really to say that NK shouldn't sell? I'm just saying that it is -- and obviously has been -- difficult both politically and ethically to construct a real 'case' against NK out of this ambivalence. And Kim is not stupid. Of course, he sees that too.

So I correct myself: Should any weapon NK sold to whoever be used against 'us' (homeland), we'd have a 'real case' and NK would be no longer. I think there is enough resolve in both the US and Europe (and I would want to include China here).

I don't watch Kabuki, but i thought it would be a cute cultural reference in this context.

It is a good reference Kabuki underwent several changes but had originally emerged as a highly stylized 'dramatic' theatre with flamboyant costumes, a lot of make-up and elaborate stage props for the entertainment of the newly affluent class emerging after 1603. The verb kabuku can be translated as 'avantgarde' or 'bizarre'. It's quite entertaining and indeed looks & sounds 'bizarre' to non-Japanese audiences who usually don't understand the storylines and cultural references. A lot of it on Youtube

They have been building out bases on atolls in the south china sea.
[...]
China is clearly projecting military force into the vacuum we left.

Yes, there are some atolls. Like Senkaku/Diaoyu, disputed since end of WWII and longer. And let's not forget China's claim on Taiwan  :

 

[JohnRoberts]

Sorry.
A = atomic
B = biological
C = conventional

ah good old ABC... not AB

I must have missed that one. Could you please point me to it? Was it gas to Syria? ...(google google)... OK, I was wrong. Apparently he sold gas to Syria.

rocket parts to iran, etc etc...

Latest sanctions violations is transferring oil between ships at sea to not be caught in port.

But then again, many countries, including our Western democracies (I don't know about the US but certainly some European countries) sell weapons (directly or indirectly) as well as parts that can be used to construct weapons to all sorts of people around the world who shouldn't really have them...

the difference between good guys and bad guys in the world can be relative, but UN sanctions don't get imposed lightly.

I don't want to defend or accuse anyone here and I know this sounds highly cynically, but what I mean is this: Who are we really to say that NK shouldn't sell? I'm just saying that it is -- and obviously has been -- difficult both politically and ethically to construct a real 'case' against NK out of this ambivalence. And Kim is not stupid. Of course, he sees that too.

NK is being starved of funds by world backed (UN) sanctions precisely because it is a rogue regime practicing unacceptable behavior.

So I correct myself: Should any weapon NK sold to whoever be used against 'us' (homeland), we'd have a 'real case' and NK would be no longer. I think there is enough resolve in both the US and Europe (and I would want to include China here).

china is who is illegally transferring oil to NK in the open seas, despite publicly supporting the sanctions regime.

It is a good reference Kabuki underwent several changes but had originally emerged as a highly stylized 'dramatic' theatre with flamboyant costumes, a lot of make-up and elaborate stage props for the entertainment of the newly affluent class emerging after 1603. The verb kabuku can be translated as 'avantgarde' or 'bizarre'. It's quite entertaining and indeed looks & sounds 'bizarre' to non-Japanese audiences who usually don't understand the storylines and cultural references. A lot of it on Youtube

My sense of kabuki is a lot of over the top, arm waving and hyperbolic superficial artifice, almost hiding the more subtle underlying real content. BUT I am not a kabuki expert.

Yes, there are some atolls. Like Senkaku/Diaoyu, disputed since end of WWII and longer.

yes but China's show of force projection in south china sea and so pacific is recent .

And let's not forget China's claim on Taiwan  :

Which used to be called Formosa (yes I'm that old).

Taiwan (a democracy) has something like the 22nd largest word economy, not too shabby for an island, but china's "one china" policy declared them part of china, without asking for their opinion or compliance. In the way back machine Taiwan(formosa) was ruled by Japan in the late 19th century.  Until about 1970 or so Taiwan was the only official china at the UN, until mainland china started throwing its weight around, and took over the seat.

JR 

 

[tands]

When kim jong il is hugging the south korean prime minister at a photo op, it's all over John. You lost.

 

[Script]

When kim jong il is hugging the south korean prime minister at a photo op, it's all over

Jong-un?  Jong-il in Kumsusan mausoleum palace. 

 

[Script]

SecPompeo:
"Good working dinner with Kim Yong Chol in New York tonight. Steak, corn, and cheese on the menu."

Wtf. This some kind of code-speak? I don't get this Twitter shit 

 

[JohnRoberts]

SecPompeo:
"Good working dinner with Kim Yong Chol in New York tonight. Steak, corn, and cheese on the menu."

Wtf. This some kind of code-speak? I don't get this Twitter sh*t 

I wouldn't invest too much thought into minutiae, the obvious it is a cliche American food meal. In NYC they could get any kind of food. Some inconsequential crumbs to throw to news media so he can keep expectations in check and doesn't steal his boss's thunder if they have a positive announcement soon (or not).

I sure hope they irradiate that hand delivered letter to POTUS before opening it (bad joke... I hope).

JR

 

[Script]

Three high-ranking officials replaced by Kim. No doubt, the military forms a state of its own within NK.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Three high-ranking officials replaced by Kim. No doubt, the military forms a state of its own within NK.

The military is the state and who he needs to keep happy/scared.

Were they discharged with anti-aircraft guns? A popular technique these days in NK.

JR

 

[Script]

Article said 'replaced' --not 'fired'.

But even that is unconfirmed. Allegedly, one military(?) dude had to go cos he fell asleep while another important(?) dude held a speech  !?

That not Monty Python? We really don't know (or anybody really being told) anything about the internal workimgs of NK. All too much speculation...

Many new pics of Kim in print recently. Weird merch ideas start flooding my mind...

 

[JohnRoberts]

Article said 'replaced' --not 'fired'.

But even that is unconfirmed. Allegedly, one military(?) dude had to go cos he fell asleep while another important(?) dude held a speech  !?

That not Monty Python? We really don't know (or anybody really being told) anything about the internal workimgs of NK. All too much speculation...

Many new pics of Kim in print recently. Weird merch ideas start flooding my mind...

Reportedly one of the guys shot with antiaircraft gun (a defense chief) was for falling sleep in a meeting (and talking back) in 2015.

I'll  bet that stings...

JR

 

[tands]

nsfw language

https://twitter.com/PostCultRev/status/806729149071007745

 

[Script]

So, Kim and Trump met, talked, and signed a paper.. Good one.

I must admit that I'd not thought this possible. Seems that they have both achieved something here.

Of course the world will have to wait and see what can come out of this...

And , well, we also know, after the G7 'debacle' (all part of the show?), that a signature doesn't really mean much, haha  ;D

 

[JohnRoberts]

So, Kim and Trump met, talked, and signed a paper.. Good one.

I must admit that I'd not thought this possible. Seems that they have both achieved something here.

Of course the world will have to wait and see what can come out of this...

And , well, we also know, after the G7 'debacle' (all part of the show?), that a signature doesn't really mean much, haha  ;D

One modest step but a small step in the right direction, but like I predicted expect a longer process with hopefully a progression of similar positive steps.

I am sure President Trump understands the concept of win-win, so I remain cautiously optimistic that Un will choose the correct path.

JR

PS: G7 brouhaha is just President Trump negotiating in the press. I think Russia needs to be sanctioned for bad behavior, but as a major energy exporter it seems hard to ignore them in world economic policy discussions. At some point even China could deserve a seat at that table. Some of the legacy members seem less consequential these days. I wonder if they have a kid's table at G7 for them (I bet they do).  8)

 

[volker]

I wonder if they have a kid's table at G7 for them (I bet they do).  8)

There is, it currently has one chair:

(Original here)