COVID-19

[dogears]

Unfortunately I am still learning... 

OK, Hepa filters trap 99.97% of particles 0.3 um....  Corona virus is 0.08 to 0.16 microns so you can do the arithmetic.

No doubt there are energy efficient UVc lamps and other strategies to purify air.

I am not suggesting that airplane travel is a major vector for infection...  There much about the new virus that is still unknown.

JR

Yes, true on the particle size but the risk of catching an aerosolized virus is probably less than one carried on droplets - which are larger. There is some research (actually very recent, 2018ish) on influenza spread by aerosolization - meaning, viral shedding just by breathing without cough or sneeze droplets - but it's not really clear. 

So, anyway, cabin air filters will knock down the sneeze and cough particles, and the air is changed out. If you're sitting right next to someone who has the flu or another highly infectious virus, you're at risk. Across the plane? Probably not. My opinion.

 

[dogears]

???
40-50 million died (possibly more)
Infected 500 million people around the world
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

So, 50/500=0.1 -- of those that contracted it, the mortality was 10%.  I don't think anyone said 20% in this thread anyway.


A major challenge with these types of RNA viruses is asymptomatic infections and the mutation rate.
With the common flu, it is estimated 14% of infections are asymptomatic, i.e. people are contagious but not showing symptoms. The coronavirus seems to share this characteristic.
Also, the genetics lend themselves to rapid mutation so unlike a disease like smallpox, a vaccine cannot eradicate it - it is seasonal. Slightly different every year.  One possible outcome is the coronavirus spreads worldwide, and becomes a new norm, yearly.

You should read the article you linked a bit more carefully. In the section "mortality" the very first sentence is: "The World Health Organization estimates that 2-3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio)."

The other thing to consider is that high severity can paradoxically be beneficial to the spread. People die before transmission. Examples are Ebola and H5N1. Severe, don't spread.

This could be worse, and in a way a less severe disease can be worse. We don't know how many people are asymptomatic carriers of SARS-CoV-2. It may be like the flu, it may not. It may be 10% mortality, it may be <1%. We have very little information. If the majority of cases are asymptomatic or minor, the mortality could be extremely low but simply over-reported right now.

Everyone's guessing based on reported numbers out of China, but midway through they went from test-confirmed to clinical diagnosis in the official count, then they switched back. Nobody trusts those numbers, so everyone's guessing. It is encouraging that the numbers out of Singapore seem to be significantly less severe.

I think you may have read the same article in the Atlantic my dad sent me yesterday
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

It is possible that it becomes an endemic disease. It may mutate a lot, it may not. It may vanish. Coronaviruses cause about half of the common colds, so it may end up being just a nuisance. Or it could be a more severe form of the flu that's around seasonally. But we don't really know yet, so I think people should watch and not panic, be reasonable, and try hard not to spread unfounded rumors. I've seen a lot of that, and it freaks people out.

I think the likely hardest hitting mode of this may simply be economic disruption.  Rumors play into that.

One discouraging thing  about the numbers China is putting out there is the high percentage of cases which may require ventilation. In normal day-to-day life that's no big deal, but it could be overwhelming in the short term for a hospital.

I'd suggest stocking up on food, first aid, basic toiletries, etc - we just went ahead and bought our hurricane kit early this year.

 

[iomegaman]

One of the things we should adjust in our thinking is that China is less capable of dealing with this than other industrialized countries, just watched a vid of an American doctor from WHO (he spoke NOT as representing WHO, they did not endorse it) who said that China might be the best place to be tech-wise if you have the disease, he described the hospitals there as having 50-60 ventilators EACH compared to 5-6 per hospital in New York (perhaps the benefit of that form of government is you can make things rather quick and no one asks how much it will cost, you just do it)...

WHO is not calling it a pandemic because they say the definition of pandemic needs to change...if the definition of the last pandemic is used this IS a pandemic now...it is uncontained in several countries, Iran is in serious trouble, South Korea is doing everything it can and of course North Korea does not have any cases of the disease, just like they have no hunger.

Mortality rate is yet to be determined, morbidity rate seems rather accelerated...

Trump claims it is contained in the USA, but the WH just asked for 3 Billion in emergency funding...maybe a wall can keep it out I dunno...there are mixed messages coming from our government on this...mainly because its an election year and no one wants the economy to take a hit...stubbing your toe to avoid going to the dentist is not the same thing as a dental plan.

Epidemics have been a part of human evolution for thousands of years...visit the wikileaks epidemic page for a sobering view of proof that your own DNA has survived some really serious crap, but there are no guarantees...

N.Taleb says "You can over-react 1000 times and survive and under-react only once and fail"...

The issue here is in the "dangerous risk" management...we always face certain levels of risk, its the risk region where fatality exists we should not play around with.

 

[dogears]

I've read the 1918 Flu had a 10% mortality rate. About 25% of people total worldwide had it. Thus, you sometimes see a mortality rate of 2.5% (but that is a little misleading).
Mortality rate of the covid-19 is still probably a little uncertain but seems significant.
The normal flu has a <.01 % mortality rate, so no comparison.
The attempts to stop the spread of covid-19 seem to have failed.  Governments seem to be trying to balance infections with the economic consequences. Not good.

Hey dude I’m sorry I was incorrect and was comparing apples to oranges. Case fatality rate is outcome of a group of cases over them and mortality is an estimate of the impact to the population. I think CFR is a way to do apples to apples and mortality takes a bit more modeling. Anyway, apologies.

 

[JohnRoberts]

One of the things we should adjust in our thinking is that China is less capable of dealing with this than other industrialized countries, just watched a vid of an American doctor from WHO (he spoke NOT as representing WHO, they did not endorse it) who said that China might be the best place to be tech-wise if you have the disease, he described the hospitals there as having 50-60 ventilators EACH compared to 5-6 per hospital in New York (perhaps the benefit of that form of government is you can make things rather quick and no one asks how much it will cost, you just do it)...

China was in the news for building a new hospital in Wuhan in something like 10 days, in response to the virus outbreak. A new hospital built for coronavirus probably does have 50 ventilators if it was purpose built to respond to the current virus outbreak.

WHO is not calling it a pandemic because they say the definition of pandemic needs to change...if the definition of the last pandemic is used this IS a pandemic now...it is uncontained in several countries, Iran is in serious trouble, South Korea is doing everything it can and of course North Korea does not have any cases of the disease, just like they have no hunger.

Last time I heard it meets two of the three criteria for pandemic status, it could tick off the third box (uncontrolled spread around the world), but hadn't yet.

Mortality rate is yet to be determined, morbidity rate seems rather accelerated...

Trump claims it is contained in the USA, but the WH just asked for 3 Billion in emergency funding...

I believe he requested $2.5B, but Schumer criticized him now saying it should be $8B. Politicizing this is not good behavior, but all too common in the swamp these days.

maybe a wall can keep it out I dunno...there are mixed messages coming from our government on this...mainly because its an election year and no one wants the economy to take a hit...stubbing your toe to avoid going to the dentist is not the same thing as a dental plan.

huh... more politics.

China is pumping massive liquidity into its economy in an attempt to reduce the pain from stalled manufacturing activity.

US stock market is pricey (overbought) and used this as the excuse for a past due correction. Down for two days, but already bouncing this morning. President Trumps pays too much attention to the stock market. I expect that could come back and bite him at some point. Markets do not go up to the sky, they always reverse and correct before rising again.

Many industries will be hurt by reduced travel/tourism, supply chain interruptions, etc. It will have a short term international impact and that too will pass.  The impact may be longer term for China if supply chains accelerate development of alternate sources.

Epidemics have been a part of human evolution for thousands of years...visit the wikileaks epidemic page for a sobering view of proof that your own DNA has survived some really serious crap, but there are no guarantees...

yup

N.Taleb says "You can over-react 1000 times and survive and under-react only once and fail"...

I don't recognize who that is, but that is the typical talking point about preventing terrorism... (OK I looked him up, Black swan guy.)

The issue here is in the "dangerous risk" management...we always face certain levels of risk, its the risk region where fatality exists we should not play around with.

Recent history shows that we have been pretty good at managing such outbreaks here. Of course this new virus needs more study and better understanding. China has still prevented US CDC professionals from traveling there to investigate it in Wuhan.

JR

PS: The outbreak in Iran is related to a religious site, that still reportedly has worshippers freely coming and going... that could spread the contagion further. At least Italy has taken actions to control/reduce public transmission.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I wonder if we have smart phone technology capable of tracking the health (body temperature) of suspect travelers.

I am not big on government tracking of private citizens, but in a situation where so many international travelers are suspect, it seems a smart phone app might answer a lot of questions. Perhaps a fair trade off for freedom of travel.

Of course some puke will figure out how to abuse this, but the technology is almost in place... Most phones  have temperature sensors to keep charging batteries from releasing smoke, some may confirm that fingerprints are attached to warm meat...  why not confirm that Betty doesn't have a fever... and if she does, where has she been lately.

JR

 

[boji]

some puke will figure out how to abuse this, but the technology is almost in place

Vader voice/  "Olfactory and Kelvin sensors are ahead of schedule. Our total surveillance system is all but complete."

 

[ruffrecords]

In the UK, the drop in the FTSE has apparently wiped £100 billion off share values. I am sure it is happening everywhere now.

Cheers

Ian

 

[JohnRoberts]

In the UK, the drop in the FTSE has apparently wiped £100 billion off share values. I am sure it is happening everywhere now.

Cheers

Ian

Yup. stock market bounce this morning returned to earth... I am looking for stuff to buy rather than sell but not yet... still too volatile, a few more days maybe.

Humans are not great at assessing risk, survival and therefore evolution favored the scairdy cats who ran instead of standing  and fighting the saber toothed tiger, unsuccessfully.

I can't believe the drama that newscasters are using these days to scare viewers....  Of course this is real, but not the end of the world, yet again, so soon.  See ya'll tomorrow.

JR

 

[Script]

Yup. stock market bounce this morning returned to earth... I am looking for stuff to buy rather than sell but not yet... still too volatile, a few more days maybe.

Really healthy attitude when working  the markets  with a portfolio to make (some extra) retirement money.  Yes, most likely a bit too early to buy.

-----
Read that a US company has started shipping a first, still vastly experimental vaccine -- with promising results observed in other mammals. This virus apparently docks onto the same human receptor as SARS.

 

[ruffrecords]

Just to put this all into perspective, regular influenza spreads around the world in yearly outbreaks, resulting in about three to five million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths. Nobody is isolated. The markets do not plummet. Is this just a media frenzy?

Cheers

Ian

 

[dogears]

Just to put this all into perspective, regular influenza spreads around the world in yearly outbreaks, resulting in about three to five million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths. Nobody is isolated. The markets do not plummet. Is this just a media frenzy?

Cheers

Ian

Flu case fatality rate is <0.1%. When swine flu went around in 2009 the actual mortality rate was 0.2%. COVID-19 as least as far as we can trust the numbers from China is 2-3%.

Likewise flu R0 which is a model of how many people each sick person infects. This is an exponential coefficient, so an R0 of less than 1 means it dies out over time. Flu is 1.2-2. This looks like 3-6. However R0 is not fixed and depends on environment and the actions of people, so this may be simply because people were unaware or it could be more contagious. We don’t know yet. But, this does seem to be significantly more serious than the seasonal flu.

 

[cyrano]

A stats freak on Reddit actually calculated the next mortality rate number the Chinese would release from analysis of previous numbers. Which, at the very least, throws some doubts on these numbers.

The same group found a serious inconsistency in Turkey's election numbers, that inconsistency was later confirmed by a Danish numbers scientist.

Of course, the press largely ignores both findings.

 

[ruffrecords]

I agree it is prudent to take precautions until the threat is properly characterised but it still seems to me that the press reaction is out of all proportion and frankly bordering on the irresponsible. For example the other day the Daily Mail front page screamed 'Schools Closed Across the UK' Turns out to be only 18 schools and 4 of those were advised it was not necessary.

Cheers

Ian

 

[JohnRoberts]

Really healthy attitude when working  the markets  with a portfolio to make (some extra) retirement money.  Yes, most likely a bit too early to buy.

-----
Read that a US company has started shipping a first, still vastly experimental vaccine -- with promising results observed in other mammals. This virus apparently docks onto the same human receptor as SARS.

I mentioned the other day that Gilead already made an experimental vaccine, but testing still takes months to see if it works. That stock (GILD) has popped maybe 20% in last week or so, too hot to touch IMO. Gilead is not the only dog chasing this fox.

JR

 

[rob_gould]

I agree it is prudent to take precautions until the threat is properly characterised but it still seems to me that the press reaction is out of all proportion and frankly bordering on the irresponsible. For example the other day the Daily Mail front page screamed 'Schools Closed Across the UK' Turns out to be only 18 schools and 4 of those were advised it was not necessary.

Cheers

Ian

Daily Mail in sensationalist headline shocker!

 

[JohnRoberts]

Just to put this all into perspective, regular influenza spreads around the world in yearly outbreaks, resulting in about three to five million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths. Nobody is isolated. The markets do not plummet. Is this just a media frenzy?

Cheers

Ian

Media exaggeration is a positive feedback loop where more reports generate more (scared) viewer interest.

There are lots of exaggerated and fake news reports floating around, and some real news. Apparently real(?), Japan is closing schools for one month... school are notorious for propagating communicable diseases.  Questionable (?) is report that corona virus may have originated in the US. Apparently health officials have yet to identify exact origin of COVID-19.

I am surprised that video conferencing and working from home did not already take off after previous recent viral outbreaks. Zoom (ZM) a video communications company has likewise caught the attention of investors (up 50% this month), so also too hot to touch. 

JR

 

[dogears]

On the counterpoint, a piece of evidence for us to consider.

Japan closed all schools til after golden week (their nationwide spring break) yesterday.

 

[JohnRoberts]

On the counterpoint, a piece of evidence for us to consider.

Japan closed all schools til after golden week (their nationwide spring break) yesterday.

Not sure what exactly this is evidence of... humans are notably not very conservative about assessing risk because they benefited in evolutionary terms by being overly cautious.

Government risk assessment is not exactly dominated by informed expert opinion as we would wish, but often driven by low information mass public fears/sentiment. This action probably quiets some public hysteria and lets the politicians declare that they are doing something protective.

=====

Always the optimist I perceive an acceleration in the drug maker's response to these new threats. We still do not know exactly what we are dealing with but will learn from this and come out the other side stronger.

JR

 

[cyrano]

maybe a wall can keep it out I dunno...

Gee... Sure hope you're being sarcastic here...  ???