COVID-19

[JohnRoberts]

Not sure what CCCs are (OK found it: common cold coronaviruses) . If it is referring to a broad family of corona viruses, perhaps some of our body's  immunity defense system responds to markers common between multiple viruses.

The scary news keeps arguing that immunity may be short lived, but it seems hard to know that with any certainty this early in the pandemic cycle.

JR

 

[scott2000]

Good read...

Duration of Isolation and Precautions for Adults with COVID-19

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html

"The likelihood of recovering replication-competent virus also declines after onset of symptoms. For patients with mild to moderate COVID-19, replication-competent virus has not been recovered after 10 days following symptom onset
Recovery of replication-competent virus between 10 and 20 days after symptom onset has been documented in some persons with severe COVID-19 that, in some cases, was complicated by immunocompromised state.
However, in this series of patients, it was estimated that 88% and 95% of their specimens no longer yielded replication-competent virus after 10 and 15 days, respectively, following symptom onset."

"Although replication-competent virus was not isolated 3 weeks after symptom onset, recovered patients can continue to have SARS-CoV-2 RNA detected in their upper respiratory specimens for up to 12 weeks"

"Specimens from patients who recovered from an initial COVID-19 illness and subsequently developed new symptoms and retested positive by RT-PCR did not have replication-competent virus detected "

:-\

 

[Script]

This article throws some light on impact of longer-term rehab, which could be dubbed a rehab pandemic.

Based on massive data from recovering patients, there's a high variety of symptoms. It's a multisystem disease, so symptoms are versatile too -- many beyond mere lung issues.

Data suggest that 10 to 15 percent of infected people do NOT easily recover and end up needing months. Too early to say whether for some the suffered damages will be irreversible, but not entirely unlikely in some cases.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists

(First three anecdotal paragraphs of that article are a bit lame, so could skip. Info comes after that.)

 

[JohnRoberts]

Questions for people smarter than me.

#1 if Covid is a CCC common cold coronavirus, for which there is no vaccine against, does this suggest vaccines will be problematic?

#2 Sweden has oscillated between being considered stupid or smart for not shutting down their economy. Economically it appears to be smart. The current death rate looks competitive or lower than other EU nations? 

#3 if covid behaves like the common cold... Is pursuit of a vaccine wishful thinking? Very expensive wishful thinking. Perhaps an ideal scenario for the drug industry is chronic vaccine development and use... A cash cow so to speak?

Inquiring mind, wants to know, and this group is so smart.

JR

 

[crazydoc]

Questions for people smarter than me.

#1 if Covid is a CCC common cold coronavirus, for which there is no vaccine against, does this suggest vaccines will be problematic?

Not that I'm any smarter than you.  The SARS-CoV-2 is not a CCC, but related to them and has antigenic sites in common. There are hundreds of viruses that cause the common cold ( viral rhinopharyngitis), some of which are coronaviruses. Since the mortality of the cold is near zero (except for occasional serious complications like pneumonia) and the morbidity is not significant, and each virus would need its own vaccine, there's no reason either from a medical or economic standpoint to develop  vaccines. This has no bearing on developing a vaccine for Covid-19.

#2 Sweden has oscillated between being considered stupid or smart for not shutting down their economy. Economically it appears to be smart. The current death rate looks competitive or lower than other EU nations?

I don't think we know yet. As there is new information regarding immunity or resistance, which may be much greater than has been considered initially, (and there will be even more new info as time goes on), it may be that Sweden (and other initial hot spots) are approaching herd immunity much faster than suspected. See prior links I posted regarding T cell cross reactivity, and:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/08/03/seroprevalence-studies-may-underestimate-immunity-to-the-coronavirus/#5553845614f9

#3 if covid behaves like the common cold... Is pursuit of a vaccine wishful thinking? Very expensive wishful thinking. Perhaps an ideal scenario for the drug industry is chronic vaccine development and use... A cash cow so to speak?

See #1

 

[JohnRoberts]

Thanks,,, that's why I asked,,,''

JR

 

[Script]

#2 Sweden has oscillated between being considered stupid or smart for not shutting down their economy. Economically it appears to be smart. The current death rate looks competitive or lower than other EU nations?

This really belongs into the 'politics' thread, but...

Sweden ranks pretty high on the list of deaths per million
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
And not sure what could possibly be 'competitive' about death rates (choice of word, ouch  ),

Also, it's too early to say whether their economy will be better off or not (right now GDP is down) and wether they are closer to 'population' immunity or not (not 'herd' immunity, please, 'herd' really sounds very dumb), EITHER WAY

[1] it won't make much of a difference to those who will have died in 2020 and
[2] dead people are also dead consumers

Role model.
Sweden is a role model in citizen compliance, though. No hard lockdown as in most other countries and yet people started adopting physical distancing from very early on, maintaining both compliance and their personal freedom, brilliant. There are nations whose people as a a whole seem less capable of such behaviour. (This last remark definitely belongs into the 'politics' thread )

 

[john12ax7]

Sweden's economy is not doing that great since it is dependent on the rest of the world.  Saw an interview with a Swedish shoe store owner whose sales are way down, most of the buyers are actually American.

With medical outcomes it makes more sense to compare Sweden with its neighbors than Europe as a whole. In that regard they are definitely doing a lot worse currently. But also  don't think the conclusion should be they got it wrong,  it will probably take years to fully assess the results.

 

[scott2000]

Role model.
Sweden is a role model in citizen compliance, though. No hard lockdown as in most other countries and yet people started adopting physical distancing from very early on, maintaining both compliance and their personal freedom, brilliant. There are nations whose people as a a whole seem less capable of such behaviour. (This last remark definitely belongs into the 'politics' thread )

I think here in FL people have been pretty compliant since March at least in my limited area. Masks, social distancing, restaurants being closed,take out only, etc... The spring break things and stories are obviously another story. But to hear that people aren't doing anything is silly imo. As a whole I think it's impressive what people have done.  Some reward eh?

I am curious if there are people from other countries still coming in here . We've always had an underground of sorts in this regard. Maybe I'm looking for reasons for our recent spikes....IDK... Just stinks to have our lives turned inside out and to hear we haven't done anything.

Florida is half the size of Sweden with twice the population...Disney and all the amusement parks,Superbowl,Spring break, snow birds.....retired population, immigrants........

almost 7200 deaths in FL....Sweden almost 5800 deaths...

And we're constantly in a negative light even before this bad spike we're in...... And who knows if Sweden is reporting fatalities as we are.....

Also, trying to understand  the CDC blurb I posted earlier.......
It  says that non-replicating virus isn't present after a couple of weeks or so in mild to moderate cases ,,,longer in severe cases.....doesn't mention asymptomatic ?

.But these PCR tests can pick up coronavirus 12 weeks out....So for three months people can be tested positive even if the virus is weak and can't replicate....

"Recovered persons can continue to shed detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA in upper respiratory specimens for up to 3 months after illness onset, albeit at concentrations considerably lower than during illness, in ranges where replication-competent virus has not been reliably recovered and infectiousness is unlikely"


I know more people who have been tested multiple times than not... The state reports say that people are counted multiple times as long as they are on different days.....It mentions this as a reason for not relying on test numbers.....not sure what this means.....

 

[Script]

...it's impressive what people have done.  Some reward eh?

?  Surely can only be DIY 

I am curious if there are people from other countries still coming in here

That is the same story they try to sell here in Japan. And it's so wrong. No, it's not other people bringing it to us, it is us (or some of us) letting down the guard or not caring any more and then catching / spreading it among us.

Florida is half the size of Sweden with twice the population [...]almost 7200 deaths in FL....Sweden almost 5800 deaths...

Ah, well, that means that (wrt death-per rate)  Florida is doing better than Sweden. -- So much for Sweden as a model eh ?

I know more people who have been tested multiple times than not... The state reports say that people are counted multiple times as long as they are on different days.....It mentions this as a reason for not relying on test numbers.....not sure what this means.....

It means that number of tests does not equal number of infected people, nor active cases.  In Japan they look at percentage of positive tests per day. As long as it's 10 percent or less positive per day, they say they are testing enough and are in control -- hmm.

Number of excess death is a much more reliable indicator (although inherently conservative), as had been rightly pointed out already.

 

[scott2000]

Ah, well, that means that (wrt death-per rate)  Florida is doing better than Sweden. -- So much for Sweden as a model eh ?

Not as nice as  what you said about Sweden earlier but we're used to this kind of stuff....

Any thoughts on the CDC data about the viral replication?

And it's so wrong. No, it's not other people bringing it to us

ok... You ever been to Florida??

As long as it's 10 percent or less positive per day, they say they are testing enough and are in control -- hmm.

Interesting...Makes sense....thanks for that

If we assume everyone has this, as we are told and expected to act, where does this leave us ? In perpetuity?

 

[Script]

Not as nice as  what you said about Sweden earlier but we're used to this kind of stuff....

Well, with the number of Covid19-related deaths you gave for Florida, Florida does indeed seem to have a lower death rate per million than Sweden, no? As much as I love Sweden's approach of voluntary restraint as opposed to forced lockdown, I admit that I think they really messed it up with regard to nursery homes, old peoples homes etc -- and nobody seems to feel responsible, at least is what I read in the news.

ok... You ever been to Florida??

No, but I really want to go. I always imagined it to be as popular and hopelessly run over by tourists as Italy's Venice, Japan's Kyoto, Thailand's almost anywhere etc etc etc  They all take the tourist money, it's part of their economy. But now this really belongs into the 'CVD politics' thread 

 

[crazydoc]

Regarding Sweden and Florida, the question is not about total deaths, but the current death rate, approaching zero, which in its most optimistic interpretation would show that the pandemic may be over in Sweden, which never really shut down, but is raging in Florida and much of the US and the world.

How this plays out is yet to be seen.

 

[scott2000]

Just came across this... Guess they had to pull teeth to get it released.... Would be nice if they gave us previous year's data to look at.....

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/COVIDHospitalizationsCounty?%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y

 

[crazydoc]

Interesting that in most places where the disease was completely out of control initially (most of Europe and New England) the death rates have dropped to approaching zero, and even most of the new case rates have also dropped considerably. This is certainly multi-factorial, with more treatment options, better medical knowledge, and mitigation measures playing a part. But it looks like there is also evidence that now, populations in these areas where there was huge exposure to the virus may have had a much greater immune response to the disease than just that evidenced by antibody levels - T-cell (lymphocyte) memory response from prior exposure to similar viruses, and new T-cell response to the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

 

[scott2000]

Brother in law in Atlanta back in hospital with blood clotting and possible pneumonia.... not looking good ..

 

[JohnRoberts]

Brother in law in Atlanta back in hospital with blood clotting and possible pneumonia.... not looking good ..

Not good... hope he makes it...

JR

 

[Bo Deadly]

I know more people who have been tested multiple times than not...

I really don't understand why people are so transfixed with getting tested. It's makes no logical sense to me at all. Can someone please explain it to me? Yeah, it helps to minimize exposure enough to be worth it for front line workers or if you're visiting someone in a nursing home or some such. Ok. If you feed sick, yeah. But that's not applicable to most people. So why are people who feel fine and don't have any real special circumstances getting tested? It doesn't help you make any kind of decision about anything. You could get it the day after you get the test. You could have it when you got the test but you're not shedding enough yet for the test to pick it up.

 

[crazydoc]

I really don't understand why people are so transfixed with getting tested. It's makes no logical sense to me at all. Can someone please explain it to me? Yeah, it helps to minimize exposure enough to be worth it for front line workers or if you're visiting someone in a nursing home or some such. Ok. If you feed sick, yeah. But that's not applicable to most people. So why are people who feel fine and don't have any real special circumstances getting tested? It doesn't help you make any kind of decision about anything. You could get it the day after you get the test. You could have it when you got the test but you're not shedding enough yet for the test to pick it up.

I too can't see why it seems so many people want to get tested if they aren't a contact of someone else with the disease, or of someone with a positive test. If a person's test is positive, even if it's someone who randomly got tested, that can lead to appropriate actions (if results are quickly forthcoming), but if it's negative, it doesn't mean squat for the reasons you listed above.

Of course, epidemiologically speaking, the more people that get tested in a population, the better handle we have on the disease. That's probably why some counties are offering free tests to anyone - but even if it's positive it won't help the individual or help control the spread if there is a significant time lag for the results.

 

[Script]

Brother in law in Atlanta back in hospital with blood clotting and possible pneumonia.... not looking good ..

That's sad to hear. I wish you and him all the best.