extended stay at home orders, indefinitely.

[pucho812]

well looks like the state of California has decided to extend stay at home orders to indefinitely.

looks like I will have time to really get the shop cleaned up. not sure what to make of this...

 

[JohnRoberts]

Good luck, many small business will not come out the other side.

JR

 

[crazydoc]

Good luck, many small business will not come out the other side.

JR

Nor will many people.

 

[Scodiddly]

I'm more comfortable with sacrificing businesses to save people, than the other way around.

 

[rock soderstrom]

I'm more comfortable with sacrificing businesses to save people, than the other way around.

+1 but at a certain point, sacrificing business means destroying the existence of the people involved.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I'm more comfortable with sacrificing businesses to save people, than the other way around.

A factor not being considered is the harm from shutting down the economy "TO PEOPLE"....

Of course this calculus is not simple, easy, or politically expedient.

JR 

 

[Scodiddly]

+1 but at a certain point, sacrificing business means destroying the existence of the people involved.

If the federal government was willing to spend military-budget money on the pandemic we wouldn't be having this argument.

 

[pucho812]

As I always say

"we're holding our own" the same phrase captain McSorley  transmitted right before his ship sank.  While I am not surprised at such an order, I am more just perplexed at how it is carried out.  how folks can easily disobey the order and there seems to be no real repercussions from it.

This is going to take it's toll on the citizens both financially and mentally. Life is a series of calculated risks, proceeding accordingly.  I don't think shutting down completely with stay at home orders is the answer nor do I think being completely open is the answer either. Seems to me we can find a middle ground if they really wanted to.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Nor will many people.

The CDC's survival rate by age show's a worst case bracket for 70+ (like moi) of only 94.6%. Much higher survivor percentage rate for younger pukes.

Based on this I feel statistically confident saying the vast majority of people will survive. But this view isn't scary enough to win high news ratings.

JR

 

 

[rock soderstrom]

Yes, it's true the death rate is currently highest among the oldest people, which is bad enough. Retirement homes are the most dangerous places at the moment.

However, one should not lose sight of the fact that the virus is constantly mutating, which may also increase its dangerousness and "efficiency" against younger people.

Shutdowns and curfews can only slow the spread and have severe side effects, the only real weapons against the virus are effective vaccines and drugs.

 

[Scodiddly]

Based on this I feel statistically confident saying the vast majority of people will survive. But this view isn't scary enough to win high news ratings.

There's still a lot of unknowns, especially in regards to long term health effects.

The other issue to worry about is that the current "low" death rate will likely get a lot higher if the ICU's get overloaded and patients don't get that high standard of equipment and personnel.

 

[crazydoc]

Based on this I feel statistically confident saying the vast majority of people will survive. But this view isn't scary enough to win high news ratings.

JR

Well shit yes, the vast majority will survive. I said "many" won't survive. But you may feel that another 100k or more who are going to die, or the unknown number with long term sequelae that have fucked up their lives, aren't "many."

There is poor understanding that getting rid of the pandemic is how employment, businesses, education, and the rest of the economic infrastructure will survive. And part of getting rid of the pandemic is keeping it from spreading by embracing the mitigation measures that have so far been ignored by so many.

And BTW, "many" small businesses will survive.

 

[john12ax7]

These half measures don't really solve the problem and are also administered inconsistently. Have a restaurant with outdoor seating,  you need to shutdown.  Outdoor seating with catered food on a movie/tv set,  that's ok.

A hard shutdown would have been a much better solution.  Give everyone money,  stockpile on food.  Then no one leaves the house for 3 weeks.  More effective and way cheaper economically in the long run.

 

[pucho812]

However, one should not lose sight of the fact that the virus is constantly mutating, which may also increase its dangerousness and "efficiency" against younger people.

All Virus's do that. that's how they survive.  This is nothing new and something we learned in science/biology class.  It's why we have the regular flu every year and the common cold every year.

 

[rock soderstrom]

All Virus's do that. that's how they survive.  This is nothing new and something we learned in science/biology class.  It's why we have the regular flu every year and the common cold every year.

Yes, I know. But this virus is already in a different league. Your annual wave of colds doesn't claim as many lives. Just to remind you, in the U.S. alone, over 340,000 people have died from this disease, within three quarters of a year!

 

[pucho812]

Yes, I know. But this virus is already in a different league. Your annual wave of colds doesn't claim as many lives. Just to remind you, in the U.S. alone, over 340,000 people have died from this disease, within three quarters of a year!

Yes but I am not so certain the count is correct. I am not dismissing the virus or the seriousness of it all.  But like I said we can find balance between stay at home and back to normal and taking risks.
Be well be safe and happy new year

 

[Ricardus]

They tried finding a balance, and our ERs and ICUs are at capacity again.

 

[pucho812]

They tried finding a balance, and our ERs and ICUs are at capacity again.

So they say.  But I have heard differently from actual medical folks not government folks. So who’s to say who is right?

 

[abbey road d enfer]

Yes, I know. But this virus is already in a different league. Your annual wave of colds doesn't claim as many lives. Just to remind you, in the U.S. alone, over 340,000 people have died from this disease, within three quarters of a year!

  In France, until year 2000 flu had a toll of about 30 000, which dropped at about 12 000 after intensive vaccination programs. To be compared with the actual cumulated figure of 62 000 for Covid.
For the US, the CDC estimates between 24 000-62 000 fatalities due to flu for the 2019-2020 season. that is far from negligible.
One thing to consider is that there are well-known measures against common flu, that most people know and apply, while most people didn't know what to do to protect against Covid, starting with one POTUS that had had an overnight honor diploma in epidemiology.
Covid is here to stay, but as we learn how to deal with it, it may turn out to be no more no less lethal than the flu.

 

[scott2000]

Covid is here to stay, but as we learn how to deal with it, it may turn out to be no more no less lethal than the flu.

That would be great.....even better if we can figure out why Covid laughs at the "very likely" preventative measures that apparently work for the flu...more effective vaccine compared to last year's maybe...

"SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — San Diego County is seeing far fewer influenza cases at this point in the flu season compared to last year, due in part to coronavirus-related safety measures, according to public health officials.

So far this season, the county has recorded 39 influenza cases, compared to 1,220 cases at this point last season. Flu season generally runs from October through May, with flu activity peaking in December and February.

The county says it's "very likely" physical distancing, hand washing, and mask-wearing are contributing to the low flu activity."

"Health officials say influenza vaccination rates are also contributing to the lower numbers. So far this season, 1,043,552 San Diegans have been vaccinated for the flu. Last season, a total of 1,234,474 flu shots were administered."

https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/san-diego-county-very-likely-flu-shots-covid-19-measures-keeping-influenza-cases-low